East Anglia Rail Franchise; New Stock?

[SPADTrap]

I've been trying to find out about the possibilities for new stock for the soon to be re-let East Anglia franchise but having read through various documents it seems information is hard to come by. I'll admit to not having the best eye for picking out information from documents like this so I am appealing to the greater knowledge of the wider forum as to what you think will happen in regard to new stock for this area? We know little as staff and I guess it is a case of waiting to see who wins it but what do you think?

New stock for West Anglia?

Thanks all

 

[Dave1987]

You've got the 379's though on your side although I'm not sure whether that is anything to shout about.

There has been a notice on the 5 week case that the 321 "Renatus" is due back on the east side in mid February but no doubt it will spend virtually all its time down the Southend branch.

 

[SPADTrap]

You've got the 379's though on your side although I'm not sure whether that is anything to shout about.

There has been a notice on the 5 week case that the 321 "Renatus" is due back on the east side in mid February but no doubt it will spend virtually all its time down the Southend branch.

Haha that is true, you're welcome to some if you like!

I saw the 321 'Renatus' notice but curious to note it mentions the same traction and braking systems, I thought the aim of the 'Renatus' program was to retraction these units? Unless I have misunderstood that. Do you think they're destined to stay on the GE then?

Our 317s, even the recently refreshed /6s won't last forever

 

[TheEdge]

Lets be honest. New stock will soon morph into a liberal application of paint and polish...

 

[Bletchleyite]

To be fair the 321 build looks every bit as good as a 350 or similar. You wouldn't knock your house down because you wanted a new heating boiler and double glazing fitting.

 

[Dave1987]

Haha that is true, you're welcome to some if you like!

I saw the 321 'Renatus' notice but curious to note it mentions the same traction and braking systems, I thought the aim of the 'Renatus' program was to retraction these units? Unless I have misunderstood that. Do you think they're destined to stay on the GE then?

Our 317s, even the recently refreshed /6s won't last forever

Er no your welcome to keep your 379's thanks!

I'm assuming the 321 'Renatus' will just slip into the usual 321 daily diagrams so will be just on GE. From what I have read on the Evesholt website it is a complete redo including the traction motors.

 

[northwichcat]

Apparently Scotrail are releasing 10 x 156s and Northern are taking on 5 of them. I'd guess at the others going to Anglia to replace the 153s.

There will be the 321s and 322s released by Great Northern and Northern available to take on, also the rest of the 317s will be available and some of the 319s will be available. So really they'll be no need to order new EMUs unless the available ones don't meet the requirements e.g. if they don't accelerate fast enough or formations not in multiples of 4 are required or a faster top speed is required.

 

[Dave1987]

Apparently Scotrail are releasing 10 x 156s and Northern are taking on 5 of them. I'd guess at the others going to Anglia to replace the 153s.

There will be the 321s and 322s released by Great Northern and Northern available to take on, also the rest of the 317s will be available and some of the 319s will be available. So really they'll be no need to order new EMUs unless the available ones don't meet the requirements e.g. if they don't accelerate fast enough or formations not in multiples of 4 are required or a faster top speed is required.

I dare you to say that on the GA twitter feed!

And I highly doubt that the much fabled increase in line speed to 110mph on GEML will ever happen or at least in the foreseeable future. It would simply cost too much.

 

[jopsuk]

On the WA I can forsee a desire to eek out 317 life as long as possible. There's therefore no indication of replacement in the requirements for the franchise.

Getting out the crystal ball, I can forsee Crossrail 2 going to Hertford and/or Harlow. There's also a further 4tph Metro service in the shape of STAR which the CR2 consultation seemed to indicate will run at least as far as Broxbourne- again I can see this going to Hertford, Harlow and maybe Stratford. This will want something more like the Overground stock. If CR2 and STAR terminate at Hertford and Harlow, then post 2030(!) I predict north of Harlow 4tph to Cambridge, 4tph to Stansted. All the Cambridge services will serve Broxbourne and Chesunt (which will be a much bigger station as it will be on a 4-track line between Broxbourne and Tottenham and is an LO terminus). At least 2tph StanEx would serve Harlow to connect to CR2/STAR metro.

I could of course be entirely wrong. But if I'm not, the future WA stock would basically be for the Cambridge service

 

[SPADTrap]

To be fair the 321 build looks every bit as good as a 350 or similar. You wouldn't knock your house down because you wanted a new heating boiler and double glazing fitting.

No, but if you needed a new car you'd probably not just stick a new engine in your old one

 

[northwichcat]

I dare you to say that on the GA twitter feed!

Only if you post on the Northern Twitter feed what a 150 is and to say Northern will be getting more of them to replace some of the Pacers.

 

[Rhoobarb]

Definitive Rolling stock solution will be known when the successful bidder is announced in June. Until then all is educated guesswork I fear!

 

[chubs]

Apparently Scotrail are releasing 10 x 156s and Northern are taking on 5 of them. I'd guess at the others going to Anglia to replace the 153s.

Considering the current DMU woes surely supplementing the 153's makes more sense? Then the hauled set can go and there are a few spares, which are badly needed. The new franchise specifies the Norwich to Cambridge services will extend to Stansted so that still isn't enough DMU's.

To be fair the 321 build looks every bit as good as a 350 or similar. You wouldn't knock your house down because you wanted a new heating boiler and double glazing fitting.

I had a new boiler fitted last year. Instead of retaining the case and having all the components removed and new ones put in I replaced the whole thing.

Regarding no new EMU order something will have to be done about the Intercity sets at the least - I hope a new order for that. Towards the end of the franchise something will have to be done about the 317's and 321's as well, no matter how much people here want them to soldier on.

 

[northwichcat]

Considering the current DMU woes surely supplementing the 153's makes more sense? Then the hauled set can go and there are a few spares, which are badly needed. The new franchise specifies the Norwich to Cambridge services will extend to Stansted so that still isn't enough DMU's.

Didn't I hear Vivarail were talking to Anglia bidders about using D-Trains in Norfolk.

 

[Dave1987]

Regarding no new EMU order something will have to be done about the Intercity sets at the least - I hope a new order for that. Towards the end of the franchise something will have to be done about the 317's and 321's as well, no matter how much people here want them to soldier on.

I think it's pretty much a given that the intercity sets will be replaced by EMU's. As long as they are full length 10 car trains I don't think anyone could argue against that and that alone will be a pretty big order. So I can see the 321's carrying on with this 'Renatus' refurbishment for a little while yet. I believe the key decision will be regarding the extra service per hour to Norwich making it 3 tph Norwich - London and vice versa. Considering the Southend services are going up to 4 tph where are the paths coming from? The only way of feasibly doing it is to extend the London - Ipswich services to Norwich. Certainly interesting times ahead on GEML come June and beyond.

 

[grumblingalong]

Intercity replacements will be emu variety. Something will happen to bring the end of the 153 in Anglia, be it D-Train or cascaded other stock their time down here is done me thinks/hopes.

Don't know why, and I know it's a bit of a thing on here at the moment, but I can see an order for some Bi-modes of some variety to cover through lowestoft workings. Would be a small order so maybe not, but I gets an inklings.

Finally 170's refurbished to a decent spec as they are more than long overdue.

Have also heard rumours of the sprinter stock disappearing completely to be replaced with cascaded scotrail 170s.

So yeah, anything could happen. Sorry if you actually bothered to read this groundbreaking post.

 

[sheepy1991]

What i can imagine happening and it is purely speculation is the following:

New build to replace class 90+mk3 sets- Id imagine a Hitachi build similar to the Great Western order

Retractioned 321 whilst better than current performance still wont be fast enough to get out of the way of the new build Intercity sets and Norwich in 90 timings so will be party replaced and cascaded by new builds that will cover Ipswich, Clacton, Walton and Harwich

Remaining retractioned class 321's will remain on the Southend and Braintree branch's and any remaining class 321's will replace all 317's on the west anglia route

Siemens stock will no doubt remain after a very much needed overhaul with potential re-certification for 110mph running should the line speed ever be upgraded (which i strongly doubt will happen). They are more than capable of it (rumour has it they were restricted after introduction due to catching a few drivers out...)

And 379's wont be going anywhere for a long while yet.

Thats what i would personally choose to do however that is just personal views,

Each bidder will have their own ideas so no one will know whos planned what untill the franchise holder is announced.

It might just be a case of class 91+ mk4's or mk4's with the new Vossloh Loco

As for the dmu's thats a whole different kettle of fish.

 

[Wivenswold]

I don't think any bidder will get away with anything other than brand new longer distance EMUs for the Norwich paths. There's a few very active commuter associations up the line and it's prime Tory territory in East Anglia. It also happens to be one of the economic growth hot spots in the UK at the moment.

I would like the 360's to go to the Southend Victoria Line to make it a little more competative with C2C, then a new fleet of high performance EMUs for the outer Great Eastern line to Colchester, Clacton and Ipswich to compliment new Norwich units.

The displaced refurbished 321s mostly allocated to Ilford & Southend for the Witham/Southminster/Chelmsford/S.Vic services and also Colchester for the Walton/Harwich branches, with the remaining 321's going across to WA to replace remaining 317s with a few spare across the region for service enhancements/back-ups.

Done. Faster services north of Chelmsford and on the Southend Vic. Completely air-conditioned EMU fleet and all disability act compliant.

 

[Dave1987]

360's are only cleared to go down the Southend Vic branch as ECS. And I believe you would need to upgrade the OHLE to stop them tripping it out, so sorry but that's a non starter. And the 360's are some of the fastest accelerating trains in the country so I'm not exactly sure what you mean by high performance EMU's.

Don't know where these direct London - Lowestoft service has come from, surely that's a complete waste of a path when the Ipswich connection works fine.

IMO if/when the intercity sets are replaced by a new order then there is no reason they need to be intercity style EMU's. But Norwich, Diss, Ipswich people would probably complain bitterly if they lose their intercity trains so intercity style EMU's are almost certain.

Even though a few very vocal groups/people will complain bitterly if the 321's aren't replaced with another brand new fleet I can't see it happening. If the line speed were to be increased to 110mph then yes but that is very very unlikely. I'm sure there will be some very vocal annoyed people in June.

 

[chubs]

Does anybody actually listen to the angry very vocal people?

 

[TheEdge]

I may be slightly biased but I am very interested to see what is going to happen with the rural fleet.

As we have seen time and again recently that fleet is stretched very thin so where it'll come from and what the stock will be interests me most as the current fleet just isn't big enough to cover the Stansted extensions, East Suffolk London trains and other extra trains. I had heard a universal 170 fleet with a decent number coming from Scotrail. And the future of the 153s I've heard various different rumours. I'm not all that sure where the London - Lowestoft demand has come from.

 

[MatthewRead]

I may be slightly biased but I am very interested to see what is going to happen with the rural fleet.

As we have seen time and again recently that fleet is stretched very thin so where it'll come from and what the stock will be interests me most as the current fleet just isn't big enough to cover the Stansted extensions, East Suffolk London trains and other extra trains. I had heard a universal 170 fleet with a decent number coming from Scotrail. And the future of the 153s I've heard various different rumours. I'm not all that sure where the London - Lowestoft demand has come from.

How frequent will the new London to Lowestoft trains run and just out of interest does anyone know what their calling points will be?

 

[grumblingalong]

How frequent will the new London to Lowestoft trains run and just out of interest does anyone know what their calling points will be?

I think it was 4 per day. If they're going to be 170 operated I can't see them stopping anywhere south of Ipswich for capacity reasons, maybe a set down at Stratford but that's about it.

A lot of people struggling to work out where that idea came back from, me thinks a vocal local MP may have grabbed the ear of the DfT.

 

[northwichcat]

I had heard a universal 170 fleet with a decent number coming from Scotrail. And the future of the 153s I've heard various different rumours. I'm not all that sure where the London - Lowestoft demand has come from.

Well Scotrail are only releasing 16 x 170s now opposed to 29 x 170s and they could already have been secured by another operator before bidding for the Anglia franchise started.

Someone claimed 5 of the 10 x 156s which Scotrail are releasing have been secured by Arriva for Northern operations, so that could leave enough for the remainder to directly replace the Anglia 153s.

I think we really need to know the exact cascades planned for Northern to eliminate some rumours.

 

[grumblingalong]

Well Scotrail are only releasing 16 x 170s now opposed to 29 x 170s and they could already have been secured by another operator before bidding for the Anglia franchise started.

Someone claimed 5 of the 10 x 156s which Scotrail are releasing have been secured by Arriva for Northern operations, so that could leave enough for the remainder to directly replace the Anglia 153s.

I think we really need to know the exact cascades planned for Northern to eliminate some rumours.

I think the plan was for Northern to have our 156s to boost the numbe from Scotrail. Remember we'd only need what 15 170s to replace the 156/153 fleet as it is, hopefully with a few extra to sit as hot spares.

The 170s would make he most sense coming to Anglia, which I can see being more likely if Abellio retain the franchise. They could all them be refurbished to the same spec.

 

[northwichcat]

I think the plan was for Northern to have our 156s to boost the numbe from Scotrail.

But in that case the figure of 5 out of 10 Scotrail 156s going to Northern doesn't make sense.

EMT are the only other c.156 operator and if they are going to get rid of their 153s, they'll need a lot more than 5 x 156s to do it. (EMT will have more 153s than any other operator once they take on an additional one from Northern.)

I've not heard of any plans for 156s to go from Anglia to Northern since an audacious suggestion from National Express for an all-Turbostar DMU fleet.

 

[grumblingalong]

But in that case the figure of 5 out of 10 Scotrail 156s going to Northern doesn't make sense.

EMT are the only other c.156 operator and if they are going to get rid of their 153s, they'll need a lot more than 5 x 156s to do it. (EMT will have more 153s than any other operator once they take on an additional one from Northern.)

I've not heard of any plans for 156s to go from Anglia to Northern since an audacious suggestion from National Express for an all-Turbostar DMU fleet.

There's nothing solid from anywhere, this is a thread of speculation and possibilities. The other thing to note is the difficulties of making 153s PRM TSI compliant, I had again heard the only easy way to sort this would be some kind of reformation into 155s to allow for the toilet and door widths.

So maybe new DMUs from Northern to displace their 153s, cascaded 170s from ScotRail to release Anglian 153s to reform into 155s for EMT? Again speculation.

 

[northwichcat]

So maybe new DMUs from Northern to displace their 153s

I don't see how the new Northern DMUs are going to stretch as far as some people are seeing. They'll be 55 new sets and 102 Pacers are being withdrawn, plus there's requirements for a considerable number of additional services despite some services being able to switch to EMUs. With the suggestion the Northern 153s are being sent back to Porterbrook at the same time as the 144s that only increases the requirements for inward cascades of DMUs.

 

[AJM580]

The through Lowestoft idea was introduced and then quietly dropped, so I don't think that will happen. I think the new trains to replace the 90 + Mk 3 will have to be pretty high spec, otherwise there'll be complaints that Norwich services are being downgraded from IC standards. Scotrail 170s would do nicely - some new units to chase!!

 

[Wivenswold]

360's are only cleared to go down the Southend Vic branch as ECS. And I believe you would need to upgrade the OHLE to stop them tripping it out, so sorry but that's a non starter. And the 360's are some of the fastest accelerating trains in the country so I'm not exactly sure what you mean by high performance EMU's.

By high performance I mean more of the same like the Desiro with a possible 110mph top speed.

My idea was based on the precedent set by BR in the late 80's when they massively improved timings by removing non-90mph stock from the GEML. As paths are short, I can only see a uniform, faster fleet increasing capacity, along with replacing the IC sets with 12 car units.

Interesting that you say that about 360's tripping the electrics on the Southend Vic line. Back in 2002 I was told by a Station Manager mate of mine that the 360's were going to be cleared for the Braintree and Southminster branches to replicate the 312's duties. Maybe the DfT's savage act of cutting the order from 24 to 21 put paid to that.