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What effects do you think a potential hard brexit might have on UK railways?

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Ken H

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Non political discussion

A theoretical UK leaves the EU on 12th April with no withdrawal agreement.

Will this affect our railways on 13th April in any way?

Will it affect any future developments before (say) 2022?

Lets ignore Eurostar/channel tunnel as that could complicate the discussion.

but lets include TfL, local metros and tramways.
 
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Mag_seven

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Could services to UK holiday resorts become busier as people elect to holiday at home in the UK?
 

brad465

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If much of Kent is gridlocked in traffic due to crossing disruption SE trains may become much busier on routes around the M20/M2/A2, as train travel suddenly becomes easily the quickest way of getting around <D
 

furnessvale

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Over time, a change to more distant trading partners could see an increase in deep sea container traffic, good for rail, compared to cross channel HGVs, not so good for rail.
 

Fawkes Cat

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In the very short term (the following few days) and assuming no civil unrest, there will be no impact on the railway. This probably goes for the short term of the following few weeks as well. As I understand it, most railway staff are on long term or permanent contracts so there will be no immediate impact from it not being so easy to employ European staff.

It's as time passes that there might be some impact. As has been noted above, roads near ports may become congested as customs clearance in and out of the UK becomes time consuming: this may impact on the demand for train travel nearby. But there may be a bigger (and more relevantly an unpredictable) impact from train failures: my understanding is that a lot of modern trains use European parts, and thinned out parts stores mean that a parts failure means getting a new part from the (overseas) manufacturer rather than a local warehouse. Trains will be out of use awaiting repair for longer than we are used to. The railway will suffer the secondary delays that all British industry will face.

In the long term, given that the railway is a service industry, Brexit's impact will mainly be as a consequence of how the economy as a whole responds. There will also be ongoing problems in obtaining parts (see above) or alternatively needing revenue to be tied up in inventory, and with a reduced pool of potential employees (no more Europeans) we can anticipate higher staffing costs. Railways will have to increase their income to cover their increased costs: in other words, fares will go up.

I don't expect many firms (whether railway or otherwise) to collapse on Brexit-day + 1. But I do expect a lot of firms to be struggling and failing in Brexit + a year or two.
 

cactustwirly

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Could services to UK holiday resorts become busier as people elect to holiday at home in the UK?

Idk, British Citizens are still able to travel to Europe for 90 days visa free, even in the event of no deal.
I'm working for a European holiday company over the summer, and we're still expected to be very busy during July and August!
 

Matt_pool

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Could services to UK holiday resorts become busier as people elect to holiday at home in the UK?

Well, as some of these people want nothing further to do with the EU then surely they won't be using the services of, for example, German owned Northern to get to Costa del Blackpool for their holidays!
 

DarloRich

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No, the question they asked was 'will it'. Which is why I responded 'why would it'. I'm not sure of why leaving the EU would affect British railways.

If only this qas the case!

Not one of you has identified the real risks to the uk railway and its supply chain. It matters not if it is a hard or soft Brexit really. Think about where equipment comes from. Think where parts come from. There is massive risk.
 

Surreytraveller

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If only this qas the case!

Not one of you has identified the real risks to the uk railway and its supply chain. It matters not if it is a hard or soft Brexit really. Think about where equipment comes from. Think where parts come from. There is massive risk.
They might have to reopen some of the old railway works
 

DarloRich

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They might have to reopen some of the old railway works

Dont be silly. Try to think beyond trains. So much more to the industry that most here miss

Think about where tampers and grinders and millers and regulators and high output machines come from.

Also have a think about how the new trading arrangements for non EU countries might impact on all this
 
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si404

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Think about where equipment comes from. Think where parts come from. There is massive risk.
Only if the Government/Parliament is incompetent* and puts punitive tariff and non-tariff barriers on railway equipment from the EU. And even then, we can get New Zealand lamb each and every autumn, despite the EU having high barriers on agricultural produce and on that part of the world - so those barriers are not that hard to overcome. Worst case in this situation is that we either have to make it ourselves, or buy such stuff from the 90% of the world that isn't Little Europe!

*OK that they are competent is a very big if!
Well, as some of these people want nothing further to do with the EU then surely they won't be using the services of, for example, German owned Northern to get to Costa del Blackpool for their holidays!
And would those Little Europeans who objected to Global Britain not use MTR Crossrail as Hong Kong is 'harking back to Empire', and worse - China the great enemy massive trade power? :P
 

DarloRich

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Worst case in this situation is that we either have to make it ourselves, or buy such stuff from the 90% of the world that isn't Little Europe!

Make it ourselves? Knew this would be suggested! Who is going to make it? How many people build such machines in the uk today? What is the skill level. No idea here. None. Where do you think everyone buys rhwre equipment?

Honestly+
 

Highlandspring

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In the very short term (the following few days) and assuming no civil unrest, there will be no impact on the railway.
On a related point there have been a few instances of sabotage carried out on NR infrastructure over the last fortnight where written notes have been left threatening further damage if Brexit does not happen.
 

si404

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No idea here. None.
An excellent description for your position - completely and utterly clueless!

You couldn't even make it to the end of sentence that also talked buying stuff from the other 90% of the world because it's like you have no idea that there's a world outside Little Europe!

Clearly at least one of these two things is true (the answer is both):
1) the 90% of the world outside Little Europe produce railway equipment and offer it for sale globally
2) they can buy it from the EU even though they aren't members of it

And, it really isn't like we don't produce (and export) railway equipment in the UK...

We might have to change suppliers: not a huge issue - especially as we've had over 1000 days since the result was to Leave, and 831 days since the law making no deal the legal default if the UK and EU couldn't agree a deal or extension of the Article 50 process - plenty of time to plan. And only then if the government idiotically decides to copy the EU's fear-based nationalistic trade policies of protectionism (which wasn't the plan at the beginning of the month - in fact quite the opposite - at least initially), making imports from the countries we currently import stuff from uneconomical to the tax our own government is putting on it...
 

DarloRich

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I am afraid you simply dont get it. There are no other suppliers for the kind of complex engineering machinery the railway relies upon. Little Europe (?) Is where the world buys this equipment.

I am sure we will continue to buy this equipment (there is no alternative) but the cost to the uk taxpayers will increase as will the difficulty in physically getting the equipment here.

It is clear you are a Brexit fan. It is also clear you really dont understand this issue. To help you: go and look at where tampers are made.
 

Ken H

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I am afraid you simply dont get it. There are no other suppliers for the kind of complex engineering machinery the railway relies upon. Little Europe (?) Is where the world buys this equipment.

I am sure we will continue to buy this equipment (there is no alternative) but the cost to the uk taxpayers will increase as will the difficulty in physically getting the equipment here.

It is clear you are a Brexit fan. It is also clear you really dont understand this issue. To help you: go and look at where tampers are made.
why would physically getting the equipment here be difficult? are they going to fill the channel tunnel with concrete?
 

DarloRich

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why would physically getting the equipment here be difficult? are they going to fill the channel tunnel with concrete?

Dont be silly. At present we enjoy frictionless cross border transport for goods within the eu and negotiated arrmagements with third parties. That MAY change after brexit. It is hard enough sorting out a the logistics today without factoring delays and extra costs for customs checks and all of the extra assurance activities that may generate.

CLEARLY (!) we are at a "may happen" situation but there is a risk that cross border trade will be made more difficult post Brexit.

It also isnt as simple as simply saying buy from America (and I maintain that is not an option for most equipment) We must agree trade deals with other countries and we simply cant assume this will be easy or mirror the EU deals we benefit from now.

Clearly a deal will be done but no one knows what that will look like. To glibly reject any risk as some posters here have done is not sensible.
 

DarloRich

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Btw i do agree with posters that day to day operations of the uk railway should be insulated from any real shirt to medium term Brexit impact.

There are risks to the supply chain but they take time to filter through.
 

mrcheek

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Well, as some of these people want nothing further to do with the EU then surely they won't be using the services of, for example, German owned Northern to get to Costa del Blackpool for their holidays!

People voted to leave the EU. How does that imply wanting to have nothing to do with Europe? Europe and the EU are two completely different things. I oppose the EU, since it is a bureaucratic mess, and I oppose political union. But I am pro-Europe. Is that too complicated for your narrow mind?
 

Clip

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Dont be silly. Try to think beyond trains. So much more to the industry that most here miss

Think about where tampers and grinders and millers and regulators and high output machines come from.

Also have a think about how the new trading arrangements for non EU countries might impact on all this

We caan still buy them from Europe in the future you know - just that they may be a little bit more expensive

I am afraid you simply dont get it. There are no other suppliers for the kind of complex engineering machinery the railway relies upon. Little Europe (?) Is where the world buys this equipment.

I am sure we will continue to buy this equipment (there is no alternative) but the cost to the uk taxpayers will increase as will the difficulty in physically getting the equipment here.

It is clear you are a Brexit fan. It is also clear you really dont understand this issue. To help you: go and look at where tampers are made.

Have you fully investigated your claims here? I dont think you have have you?

SB Rail seem to make some machines in this country
Harsco Rail dont seem to have any base in Little (?) Europe
Dymax dont seem to have any base in Little (?) Europe

So I think you may have to readjust your statements to something a little more factual ;) especially if you want to carry on claiming there is no alternative when there really really is.
 

Journeyman

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Why would it affect our railways?

Blatantly obvious answer is that it has potential to drive unemployment through the roof, and therefore result in a significant downturn in commuter traffic. This is the bread and butter of many TOCs' finances, and it could completely destroy the business plans of many of them.
 

Journeyman

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People voted to leave the EU. How does that imply wanting to have nothing to do with Europe? Europe and the EU are two completely different things. I oppose the EU, since it is a bureaucratic mess, and I oppose political union. But I am pro-Europe. Is that too complicated for your narrow mind?

I oppose the current government because it's a bureaucratic mess.
 

whhistle

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I think it'll be like the y2k "bug".
Nothing will happen.

Loads of people expecting us to starve because suddenly we won't be importing food or anything from the EU.
Lots of people thinking how much we buy from the EU, but forgetting how much they sell to us.
We both need each other.

Is there a suggestion that tamping machines aren't made anywhere else in the world, apart from the EU?
Because not being in the EU means we can buy from China and other markets at a much easier/better rate doesn't it?
 

Peter Kelford

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I think that the railways will be less affected than other essential parts of daily life, but important to note that no freight operator is British owned. There are one US company and two EU ones. The other possibility is that Scottish rail will race ahead (due to this). The last thing to note is that rolling stock may be delayed further.
 
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