Avanti West Coast cancellations

[mandub]

The original DfT plan was to re-instate all services after COVID and there are still some there (and RDG) that want that to happen. But the punters are not coming back quick enough and there looks to be some long term effects on certain aspects of passenger demand. But with an economy that is misfiring, no-one is quite sure.

The Treasury has got fed up with the “Jam Tomorrow” attitude of the DfT and the squeeze is on. The Treasury don’t like to see any increase in TOC costs, even if it covered by additional revenue so it’s all a bit difficult at the moment.

Frankly nobody knows where this is going to end up. There are some that are trying to work it all out and some have their own pet theories but it’s all a bit uncertain and meanwhile the railway is still losing money with the Treasury not willing to release additional funds.

I’m fairly sure that there are some at the Treasury who wouldn’t mind seeing the railway shrink so, to be fair to the DfT, they are trying to hold a line but it is an increasingly less credible one because some TOCs need to up their resource levels. By looking at TOCs individually, the DfT are missing industry savings opportunities.

If this was BR, immediate action would have been taken across the board and the 16 weeks budget outturn discussions would have been interesting as immediate savings would be required from budget holders, not only to save money but to fund others where needed. Targets would have been set with robust action plans to achieve them.

Basically, we have an organisation (the DfT) trying to carry out a role that it is completely unsuited for.

Thanks. Useful answer

 

[Bertie the bus]

The thing is, the railway shouldn’t go back to how it was. There were fundamental problems with it. They might have only surfaced now and again, e.g. when some TOC annoyed its drivers and couldn’t operate a Sunday service, but they were there.

The government has a rare opportunity to force through some changes and if that means a bit of short term pain as long as it actually achieves something in the end it should be worth it. What would be unforgivable is if we go through a period of extreme uncertainty and poor service to only emerge where we started.

 

[gazzaa2]

Barring major incidents such as the Lamington Viaduct closure in 2016, yesterday must have been the worst day ever for Glasgow/London train performance. Of the 14 trains booked to run, precisely one, 1M18 the 1740, departed Glasgow on time; The rest were either late or cancelled, and as 1M18 only ran as far as Preston, not one single train ran as booked and on time from Central to Euston.

I think you could take your pick from any of the previous 7 days or so. It's been an absolute nightmare on that route throughout the week. Some of it unfortunate (i.e. some fatalities, unprecedented heat wave Monday-Tuesday which had a knock-on effect on services for days). Added to the general weekend problems this weekend and last weekend, high Covid levels, end of school term etc.

 

[philosopher]

The original DfT plan was to re-instate all services after COVID and there are still some there (and RDG) that want that to happen. But the punters are not coming back quick enough and there looks to be some long term effects on certain aspects of passenger demand. But with an economy that is misfiring, no-one is quite sure.

The Treasury has got fed up with the “Jam Tomorrow” attitude of the DfT and the squeeze is on. The Treasury don’t like to see any increase in TOC costs, even if it covered by additional revenue so it’s all a bit difficult at the moment.

Frankly nobody knows where this is going to end up. There are some that are trying to work it all out and some have their own pet theories but it’s all a bit uncertain and meanwhile the railway is still losing money with the Treasury not willing to release additional funds.

I’m fairly sure that there are some at the Treasury who wouldn’t mind seeing the railway shrink so, to be fair to the DfT, they are trying to hold a line but it is an increasingly less credible one because some TOCs need to up their resource levels. By looking at TOCs individually, the DfT are missing industry savings opportunities.

If this was BR, immediate action would have been taken across the board and the 16 weeks budget outturn discussions would have been interesting as immediate savings would be required from budget holders, not only to save money but to fund others where needed. Targets would have been set with robust action plans to achieve them.

Basically, we have an organisation (the DfT) trying to carry out a role that it is completely unsuited for.

During the week, it may make sense to have fewer services than pre Covid, as demand during the week has not recovered. In the case of Avanti this could involve running two instead of three trains an hour to Birmingham and Manchester. Weekend travel from what I have understood is largely back to pre Covid levels, so on weekends it would make sense to restore the pre covid timetable. Doing this would both save the Treasury money while keeping passengers relatively satisfied.

I do admit however, given Avanti’s staffing issues are clearly at the weekends, having a more frequent weekend service than weekdays is probably little more than a pipe dream.

 

[thedbdiboy]

The original DfT plan was to re-instate all services after COVID and there are still some there (and RDG) that want that to happen. But the punters are not coming back quick enough and there looks to be some long term effects on certain aspects of passenger demand. But with an economy that is misfiring, no-one is quite sure.

The Treasury has got fed up with the “Jam Tomorrow” attitude of the DfT and the squeeze is on. The Treasury don’t like to see any increase in TOC costs, even if it covered by additional revenue so it’s all a bit difficult at the moment.

Frankly nobody knows where this is going to end up. There are some that are trying to work it all out and some have their own pet theories but it’s all a bit uncertain and meanwhile the railway is still losing money with the Treasury not willing to release additional funds.

I’m fairly sure that there are some at the Treasury who wouldn’t mind seeing the railway shrink so, to be fair to the DfT, they are trying to hold a line but it is an increasingly less credible one because some TOCs need to up their resource levels. By looking at TOCs individually, the DfT are missing industry savings opportunities.

If this was BR, immediate action would have been taken across the board and the 16 weeks budget outturn discussions would have been interesting as immediate savings would be required from budget holders, not only to save money but to fund others where needed. Targets would have been set with robust action plans to achieve them.

Basically, we have an organisation (the DfT) trying to carry out a role that it is completely unsuited for.

Sums it up well, the final line is key to the ongoing issues. Whatever the promises being made of GBR, until the legislation goes through it has no formal role or power in the industry, which is still structured on the 1993 Railways Act principles that explicitly break the chain of overall commercial control (an ideological approach designed to ensure that BR could not easily be re-established). This now stands in the way of effectively tackling what is a crisis. If you follow the money, there is no doubt that Government is in charge. But if you speak to the DfT they will constantly deny that they (in the absence of any other structural alternative) are actually responsible for ensuring that things work properly, and in any case, they are (as Clarence Yard says) completely unsuited to such a role.

 

[Efini92]

I'm booked on Avanti trains for 5 consecutive days either the 1113 or 1313 from Milton Keynes to New Street (Mon, Tues and Wed), International (Thursday) and Coventry (Friday) for access to the Commonwealth Games. What chance do I have of all these trains running

I'm supposed to be on LNWR on Saturday 30th. They are on strike but journey planners still have not been updated and the tickets that are in the post still haven't arrived in any case 12 days after they were booked. My Avanti alternatives are 0713 or the 0724 Additional put on for the games. But I can't rebook due to the lack of communication by LNWR about what is actually going on. Help !

You might struggle Wednesday depending on what they are running as it’s a strike day. The other week days should be fine.

 

[Amos]

So is anyone here who has been affected by Avanti cancellations (or even not ) going to write to their MP, Avanti CEO, the DFT, A and Minister for Transport (whatever title covers this nowadays) and complain / ask them what they are going to do about it? You could also ask about a formal statement on rerouting if your journey is delayed by 60 mins and see what they say. Probably get nowhere but any reply could be then given to the press.

I wrote to my MP on July 4th about this.He didn’t seem particularly interested but his secretary has promised to contact the department for transport. I will let you know should I receive a response.

 

[David Stewart]

Seems no Anglo Scottish

Not sure what the problem is there, all the Glasgow southbounds appear to be running (though the first two were 20 late, and none have got past Preston yet!)

Strangely seems all Anglo Scottish running, many late departures and at least one from Edinburgh terminated at Wolverhampton but otherwise far better than Friday and Saturday.

 

[Parham Wood]

I have this morning contacted my local MP regarding Avanti.

Well done. I wonder if you will get anything more than " I have passed your enquiry on to my esteemed colleague the Minister for Transport".

 

[Birmingham]

I'm supposed to be on LNWR on Saturday 30th. They are on strike but journey planners still have not been updated and the tickets that are in the post still haven't arrived in any case 12 days after they were booked. My Avanti alternatives are 0713 or the 0724 Additional put on for the games. But I can't rebook due to the lack of communication by LNWR about what is actually going on. Help !

Afraid London Northwestern Railway are running no services on Saturday 30th due to the drivers strike. This is as per the information at https://lnr.uk/industrialaction. You'll need to re-route onto Avanti for that journey, whose drivers are not on strike.

 

[Some guy]

Would love to know the proportion of Avanti’s revenue being paid out in delay repay. I’ve had my last three journeys back in full.

Can this be sustainable? When do they throw in the towel?

Let’s ignore that when they do run north of Preston they actually try and keep to the service that runs’ stopping pattern leaving the likes of Penrith and oxenholme without services north or south for over three hours (coupled with TPE’s abdication)

As per another post the railway in some parts of the country risks becoming redundant. Probably suits the government agenda.

That’s due to pathing reasons they have to stop at either Penrith or oxenholme a few minutes added on could mean them losing a slot going into Glasgow and ending up being stuck behind a stopping train. Don’t forget the freight as well. It’s not like the east coast where there is far less freight

 

[Agent_Squash]

That’s due to pathing reasons they have to stop at either Penrith or oxenholme a few minutes added on could mean them losing a slot going into Glasgow and ending up being stuck behind a stopping train. Don’t forget the freight as well. It’s not like the east coast where there is far less freight

Delayed services manage to slot in all the time. A slight delay is far better than abandoning servicing the Lake District during the middle of summer.

Let’s be honest, the WCML is hardly following a timetable anymore anyway…

 

[modernrail]

The original DfT plan was to re-instate all services after COVID and there are still some there (and RDG) that want that to happen. But the punters are not coming back quick enough and there looks to be some long term effects on certain aspects of passenger demand. But with an economy that is misfiring, no-one is quite sure.

The Treasury has got fed up with the “Jam Tomorrow” attitude of the DfT and the squeeze is on. The Treasury don’t like to see any increase in TOC costs, even if it covered by additional revenue so it’s all a bit difficult at the moment.

Frankly nobody knows where this is going to end up. There are some that are trying to work it all out and some have their own pet theories but it’s all a bit uncertain and meanwhile the railway is still losing money with the Treasury not willing to release additional funds.

I’m fairly sure that there are some at the Treasury who wouldn’t mind seeing the railway shrink so, to be fair to the DfT, they are trying to hold a line but it is an increasingly less credible one because some TOCs need to up their resource levels. By looking at TOCs individually, the DfT are missing industry savings opportunities.

If this was BR, immediate action would have been taken across the board and the 16 weeks budget outturn discussions would have been interesting as immediate savings would be required from budget holders, not only to save money but to fund others where needed. Targets would have been set with robust action plans to achieve them.

Basically, we have an organisation (the DfT) trying to carry out a role that it is completely unsuited for.

And has no chance of becoming suited for, because central civil servants can never be good at such things. It is just not what they do, in any field. Also, civil servants in our system are encouraged to be generalists and encouraged to move departments frequently. Luckily, there are some that don’t to provide some continuity.

The coincidence of timing of the new direct contracts and post-Covid drop in passenger numbers is extremely dangerous for the railways. When it was a growth story across the board, the DfT although completely imperfect would have been managing mostly a ‘better than day 1x’ revenue scenario.

Now they are managing a decline in revenue. The situation at Avanti suggests this is not going well.

This is deeply frustrating as you can easily fill every single seat on Avanti with the right strategy. Cancelling services left right and centre will just further damage the potential to get back to the same revenue as pre-COVID.

I am personally changing behaviour. I am travelling from London to the Lakes for a camping trip for my Dad’s 80th in a fortnight. I want to be there on time so we can all kick off the weekend together, rather than me sulking in late for such an important thing, so I will be booking a train much earlier than needed or the day before, or hiring a car. Even as a big believer in the railways, the need to do that has really annoyed me.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

The original DfT plan was to re-instate all services after COVID and there are still some there (and RDG) that want that to happen. But the punters are not coming back quick enough and there looks to be some long term effects on certain aspects of passenger demand. But with an economy that is misfiring, no-one is quite sure.

It's interesting that you say that, I have a copy of WMT's National Rail Contract and it definitely states to not run a full pre-covid timetable and with no mention of changing it depending on passenger numbers. So clearly the DfT have no intention in us running a fully reinstated service as you put, whether that is the same in each NRC I have no idea. Regardless of number of passengers.

 

[Johnny Lewis]

It was an utter disaster and was slower than the change at Crewe. No thanks.

Agree that linking London - Birmingham semi-fast trains with Birmingham - Walsall / Rugeley local trains was always going to be a recipe for disaster. But linking an inter-regional train from London to Birmingham with an inter-regional train from Birmingham to Liverpool once an hour should be more than do-able. Why is it any different to linking London - Birmingham with Birmingham - Scotland, or Bournemouth - Birmingham with Birmingham - Manchester, or Cardiff - Birmingham with Birmingham - Nottingham? Answer: it isn't any different.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

Agree that linking London - Birmingham semi-fast trains with Birmingham - Walsall / Rugeley local trains was always going to be a recipe for disaster. But linking an inter-regional train from London to Birmingham with an inter-regional train from Birmingham to Liverpool once an hour should be more than do-able. Why is it any different to linking London - Birmingham with Birmingham - Scotland, or Bournemouth - Birmingham with Birmingham - Manchester, or Cardiff - Birmingham with Birmingham - Nottingham? Answer: it isn't any different.

Currently the issue regarding LNWR EUS-LIV is around routes signed and LLC infighting.

Currently EUS-CRE is signed by Crewe and Northampton only with Bletchley signing up to Rugby if I recall correctly. Of these, only Northampton sign RUG-BHM.

Then between BHM-LIV you have New St and Crewe signing it. So whereas now you need 2 drivers and 1 guard for a EUS-CRE, or even a EUS-LIV (via Trent), that wouldn't be the case for a via New St service.

I'd be more than happy if this was resolved at some point, and perhaps would have been had COVID not hit and the franchises not splitting.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Agree that linking London - Birmingham semi-fast trains with Birmingham - Walsall / Rugeley local trains was always going to be a recipe for disaster. But linking an inter-regional train from London to Birmingham with an inter-regional train from Birmingham to Liverpool once an hour should be more than do-able. Why is it any different to linking London - Birmingham with Birmingham - Scotland, or Bournemouth - Birmingham with Birmingham - Manchester, or Cardiff - Birmingham with Birmingham - Nottingham? Answer: it isn't any different.

The reason it's different is because the south WCML is overused, with very little resilience, and so that to keep things reasonably punctual you need self-contained routes to be able to do targetted cancellations to sort the mess out. This is incompatible with a long distance operation.

It could have been done with long layovers at New St (10+ minutes) but then you lose the gain.

Just change at New St or Crewe if you want a budget long distance journey. It's not hard, and you'll probably want a cup of tea and to stretch your legs by then anyway - end to end it was about 5 hours, I did it once and it was long! The primary purpose of LNR is to serve its short distance passengers, and that is how it should remain.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jul 2022 ==

Currently the issue regarding LNWR EUS-LIV is around routes signed and LLC infighting.

Long may that remain an issue. It was disastrous and it should never come back. It wasn't just punctuality, it caused severe overcrowding on services primarily for local journeys, but the main problem was that they had to keep skip stopping local stations with no alternatives to keep things vaguely on time. Simple self contained shuttles are best for commuter services. Indeed, I could see a reasonable case for splitting it back up at Northampton, though the Brum service seems to work OK enough with a decent layover at Northampton.

I could see sense in extending the Crewe to either Liverpool or Manchester but that's different, it's a medium distance semifast, not a local service - it's a bit more like LNER's xx06 York semifast but operated by LNR instead of Avanti. And indeed Avanti will have an equivalent on the Brum route from Dec.

 

[Clarence Yard]

It's interesting that you say that, I have a copy of WMT's National Rail Contract and it definitely states to not run a full pre-covid timetable and with no mention of changing it depending on passenger numbers. So clearly the DfT have no intention in us running a fully reinstated service as you put, whether that is the same in each NRC I have no idea. Regardless of number of passengers.

Don’t forget an NRC is only a “moment in time” contract, which has change provisions. The timetable can be changed up or down and the DfT has very broad powers to make that happen. It’s all in Chapter 4.2 of every NRC. How a TOC has to deal with train capacity and how the DfT gets involved in that is in Chapter 4.1 of every NRC.

 

[mrmartin]

The problem with these reduced timetables is that on weekends there is a lot of demand for these trains, so at some point an eg 1tph (or less) EUS MAN service gets so overcrowded it becomes unreliable in itself. I also doubt Euston can handle many thousands of people waiting for the next train service with big gaps between services and massive overcrowding.

I wonder if it is possible to have a 'skelenton' timetable but then have short announcement additional services to reduce congestion if/when they are certain they have the staff to run?

Otherwise this is a really dire situation - I understand people need reliability in the timetable but if they have to cut so deep to allow that there will be so much capacity lost the service could also be close to useless. A real lose lose.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

Don’t forget an NRC is only a “moment in time” contract, which has change provisions. The timetable can be changed up or down and the DfT has very broad powers to make that happen. It’s all in Chapter 4.2 of every NRC. How a TOC has to deal with train capacity and how the DfT gets involved in that is in Chapter 4.1 of every NRC.

Of course it can, but given how busy our services are (particularly New St - Lime St) and yet there is no talk of reintroducing the half hourly service.

And before you say it, yes I know it would change capacity as they are currently 8car compared to 4car previously.

 

[trainophile]

Of course it can, but given how busy our services are (particularly New St - Lime St) and yet there is no talk of reintroducing the half hourly service.

And before you say it, yes I know it would change capacity as they are currently 8car compared to 4car previously.

Was a 4-car on the 1207 from LIV last Friday. Pretty cosy.

 

[graysquire]

late reply to this, but I was on 1M08. We were advised going through the Lakes that it would terminate at Preston, but then "reinstated" a few minutes before Lancaster (which is where I was going to get off as I thought I'd have a better chance getting on whatever the next service was going south than at Preston) so I was quite relieved. It was reinstated as 9M50, but didn't go via Birmingham - extra stops at Crewe, Stafford and MKC. Why it couldn't have continued as 1M08 given it wasn't going via Birmingham... I've given up trying to fathom some of the AWC logic these days!

I'm trying to make sense of RealTime Trains: seems like 1M08 (390.107) arrived in platform 4 at Preston at 10:27 and an unidentified 390 departed platform 4 as 9M50, five minutes later - the same train presumably but now going via Birmingham?

 

[Glenn1969]

Afraid London Northwestern Railway are running no services on Saturday 30th due to the drivers strike. This is as per the information at https://lnr.uk/industrialaction. You'll need to re-route onto Avanti for that journey, whose drivers are not on strike.

These services are still showing on RTT , and the card concerned has been charged even though the tickets themselves have not actually arrived 2 weeks after they were purchased. I will be contacting London Northwestern on Wednesday if nothing has come in the post by then. I take it there is no ticket acceptance on Avanti trains on strike days. I discussed this with my sister yesterday and we may just decide not to travel given that I need assistance and trains will be busy

 

[Jamesrob637]

The 12:56 London to Manchester was cancelled due to the planned train being replaced with a slower train (MS).

Pray tell, what is slower than a Voyager or Pendolino??

 

[The Planner]

The 12:56 London to Manchester was cancelled due to the planned train being replaced with a slower train (MS).

Pray tell, what is slower than a Voyager or Pendolino??

A Voyager is slower than a Pendo, if that is what happened.

 

[Birmingham]

Pray tell, what is slower than a Voyager or Pendolino??

An 80x?

 

[syorksdeano]

I think Michael Palin would be best suited, after all he is used to travelling...

Brian Blessed would be better

 

[m0ffy]

Credit where it’s due - I sent in my delay repay claim on Saturday evening and it was approved on Tuesday.

 

[Merseysider]

Hardly any cancellations today nor yesterday - it appears Avanti are in fact capable of running 6 trains an hour from Euston

 

[AndrewE]

Hardly any cancellations today nor yesterday - it appears Avanti are in fact capable of running 6 trains an hour from Euston

It's their Saturday performance that is going to affect me and my family very soon...