Despite the government's announcement, should HS2 be cancelled?

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's a critical week for government spending, and who knows how it will affect the railway - presumably Jeremy Hunt is about to tell us.
However, there's a groundswell against HS2 for the alleged £100 billion it will cost over the next decade, and how that relates to the national "black hole".
Something like £8 billion has already been spent, and £18 billion has been contracted and is work in progress.
Most of this is on Phase 1 but there has been some enabling spend on Phase 2a, and design/legal work on Phase 2b Crewe-Manchester to get the Bill through parliament.

Simon Jenkins has posted a highly critical piece in the Guardian, largely on the grounds that the money should be spent on more pressing things (schools, hospitals, and normal railways).
Simon knows his railway, having been a member of the BR Board and is a specialist in railway architecture.
He has been a long-term opponent of HS2 and mega-projects generally.
But he bashes HS2 as an un-needed white elephant, and wants it scrapped despite the progress made and cancellation costs which would be incurred.

The real ‘black hole’ in the UK’s finances is HS2 – let’s kill off this monstrosity for good | Simon Jenkins

Successive prime ministers have lacked the courage to end this vanity project. Is Rishi Sunak any different, asks Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

The real ‘black hole’ in the UK’s finances is HS2 – let’s kill off this monstrosity for good​

Sunak’s chancellor claims he wants to crack down on “outrageous” waste of public money. Yet in 2018 it was revealed that £4.1bn had been spent before work even began, with “consultants” getting £600m. The extravagance of the project has been condemned by Whitehall economists, public accounts committee chairs and project assessors galore. Its backers now claim it is too far advanced to cancel, with giant boring engines deep under the Chilterns. Yet those with noses firmly in the public trough always claim this. A New Jersey governor, Chris Christie, famously halted a rail tunnel under the Hudson river by simply ordering the contractors to fill in the hole.

Luckily, the Tory front bench probably doesn't read the Guardian, but there are broadly similar articles in the Telegraph and Times.
We'll see on Thursday if the Autumn Statement calls for any cuts in the HS2 plans, which currently supports 30,000 jobs.

 

[CardiffKid]

Cancelling it now would be utterly rediculous for reasons that have been discussed dozens of times.

Imagine if Crossrail was cancelled in 2010?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think Phase 1 is too far along to scrap, though I suppose it could be slowed down to spread the spending over a longer period, and possibly things could be specced down a bit, e.g. more standard 300km/h rolling stock instead of higher cost 400km/h capable stock, or even consider reducing the speed to 250km/h which would allow near-standard 80x to be procured instead, or even for the initial Phase 1 opening use Pendolinos. Even post COVID, it's the south WCML that's the "worst bit" in terms of capacity pressure and reliability if more freight is desirable.

Phase 2A and 2B should probably, in the context, be revisited to see if the key features can be provided more cheaply, i.e. relieving the lines south of Manchester and north of Birmingham. I'm less convinced that the Trent Valley is that much of an issue.

I think this is actually roughly what we will see from Hunt. Plus, as 2A and 2B are so far in the future, he can say it now in full knowledge that he won't be Chancellor then (barring major ructions I think a Labour Government is near certain at the next General Election) and so they will be able to reinstate it if seen fit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Nov 2022 ==

Cancelling it now would be utterly rediculous for reasons that have been discussed dozens of times.

Imagine if Crossrail was cancelled in 2010?

The situation wasn't quite as pressing in 2010.

 

[JonathanH]

Phase 2A and 2B should probably, in the context, be revisited to see if the key features can be provided more cheaply, i.e. relieving the lines south of Manchester and north of Birmingham.

Isn't it a) pretty much established that the key features can't be provided more cheaply and b) clear that there wouldn't be money for that work anyway.

What would relieve the lines through Stockport more cheaply than a bypass?

I would have said that it seems highly probable that Phase 2a and 2b will be postponed / unfunded.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What would relieve the lines through Stockport more cheaply than a bypass?

Well, a 250km/h bypass (a bit more like Colwich than HS2) would do it a heck of a lot cheaper than a 400km/h one!

I've long been a proponent of the German/Swiss Neubaustrecke model over the French style model HS2 is largely following, to be fair. 400km/h is profligate and unnecessary.

 

[357]

Didn't they stretch the Crossrail timeline from December 2017 until December 2018 to reduce cost?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I would have said that it seems highly probable that Phase 2a and 2b will be postponed / unfunded.

I agree. I think it's unlikely Phase 1 would be pulled as what are you going to do with the holes already dug? You'd have to spend a fortune making good, you might as well finish it even if you e.g. downspec the rolling stock order.

 

[6Gman]

It's a critical week for government spending, and who knows how it will affect the railway - presumably Jeremy Hunt is about to tell us.
However, there's a groundswell against HS2 for the alleged £100 billion it will cost over the next decade, and how that relates to the national "black hole".
Something like £8 billion has already been spent, and £18 billion has been contracted and is work in progress.
Most of this is on Phase 1 but there has been some enabling spend on Phase 2a, and design/legal work on Phase 2b Crewe-Manchester to get the Bill through parliament.

Simon Jenkins has posted a highly critical piece in the Guardian, largely on the grounds that the money should be spent on more pressing things (schools, hospitals, and normal railways).
Simon knows his railway, having been a member of the BR Board and is a specialist in railway architecture.
He has been a long-term opponent of HS2 and mega-projects generally.
But he bashes HS2 as an un-needed white elephant, and wants it scrapped despite the progress made and cancellation costs which would be incurred.

The real ‘black hole’ in the UK’s finances is HS2 – let’s kill off this monstrosity for good | Simon Jenkins

Successive prime ministers have lacked the courage to end this vanity project. Is Rishi Sunak any different, asks Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins

www.theguardian.com

Luckily, the Tory front bench probably doesn't read the Guardian, but there are broadly similar articles in the Telegraph and Times.
We'll see on Thursday if the Autumn Statement calls for any cuts in the HS2 plans, which currently supports 30,000 jobs.

Simon Jenkins has been saying this for years.

It hasn't got him anywhere in the past.

HS2 may or may not be scrapped, downscaled, delayed but it won't be down to the scribblings of Simon Jenkins.

 

[Energy]

HS2 also creates a lot of jobs in the supply chain, a worker for a quarry and aggregates company is going to be pretty annoyed when a major client is terminated. And the boss will also be pretty annoyed when their customer looses a client.

It doesn't just affect the firms contracted by HS2, the contracts normally taken by the big firms can be taken by smaller ones as the larger company is busy with HS2 work.

 

[JonathanH]

This story also sums it up (although the maths is severely misguided).
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1695773/HS2-scrapped-spending-cuts

Scrapping rest of HS2 could save 'tenth of spending cuts needed', expert says

A MAJOR report today calls for the Government to pull the plug on HS2 to spare the country deep spending cuts.
By DAVID WILLIAMSON
22:30, Sat, Nov 12, 2022

Former Downing St transport expert Andrew Gilligan argues that all sections of HS2 where construction work has not yet started should be cancelled.

Mr Gilligan claims that stopping HS2 in its tracks would prove popular and could “deliver almost a tenth of the spending cuts required”.

His Policy Exchange report claims that leaving almost half of HS2 uncompleted would free up money for better schemes which could help more people more quickly, as well as reducing the need for cuts to public services.

Mr Gilligan described HS2 as “Britain’s greatest infrastructure mistake in half a century”.

He said: “The combination of rising costs and falling public spending means that if HS2 continues as planned, it will eat much of the rest of the public transport budget, causing terrible harm to the services that most people actually use, need and want, and which could do far more for economic growth, reducing carbon dioxide and cutting road congestion.”

Mr Gilligan, who worked on the project in No 10, said scaling back the controversial rail project could save “£3bn per year by 2027-28”.

Support for bringing the curtain down on HS2 has also come from former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey.

She said: “It has been obvious to some of us for a long time that HS2 is a white elephant with costs out of control, and which is more likely to benefit London than the north. The Government cannot possibly increase taxes and not scrap this wasteful project."

“If it has enough money for HS2 it has enough money not to put up taxes. If hasn’t got enough money to keep taxes down, it hasn’t got enough money for HS2.

“It is as simple as that.”

The report, HS2: The Kindest Cut of All, claims that 43 percent of the benefits of HS2 will go to London and the southeast. It also casts doubt on whether costs can be kept under control.

Mr Gilligan said: “The prospect of HS2 being delivered to the specification and cost currently claimed is essentially nil. The only question is how much more money we waste and how much more damage we cause before we all realise this.”

A Department for Transport spokesman insisted HS2 would “deliver positive value for the taxpayer”.

He said: “HS2 will bring transformational benefits and is currently supporting 29,000 jobs. We’re committed to delivering it as set out in the Integrated Rail Plan, and construction is underway and within budget."

In fact the Express is so keen to get the message across that it published effectively the same story again today.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...0-adviser-Andrew-Gilligan-North-South-East-vn

HS2 'going to suck money out of' transport projects which help rest of UK
Ex-No10 Transport Adviser Andrew Gilligan slammed the construction of HS2.
By EBUN HARGRAVE
11:25, Mon, Nov 14, 2022 | UPDATED: 11:25, Mon, Nov 14, 2022

Mr Gilligan claimed that 43 percent of the benefits go to London and the South East. And explained that the HS2 line was always going to cost more than £16billion. The former Number 10 transport adviser explained that these types of large-scale projects were almost deliberately sold to the public with misleading undervalued figures. Mr Gilligan explained that areas like the Midlands needed more local transport options as they already had a fast train to London.

Mr Gilligan told LBC: "I just think this is a bad project, a lot of these big projects always get sold to the public with almost deliberately misleading undervalued figures.

"So, I don't think anyone actually believes it was only ever going to cost £16billion, I think they just wanted to get it started.

"Had we known how much it was going to cost, and how few benefits it was going to bring for the money, I don't think we would ever agree to it.

"So a decision was made to deliberately lowball it, I'm sure about that. And the basic problem is I heard James Cleverly talking about needing to help the rest of the UK.

Mr Gilligan added: "This is going to suck money out of the things, the transport and infrastructure projects that will help the rest of the UK.

"Another thing that we found out in this report, again it's buried in the documentation it's out there if you want to look for it, is almost half of the benefits go to London and the South East.

"So its effect in levelling up is going to be a little better than neutral 43 percent of the benefits go to London and the South East.

"What the North and the Midlands really need is not a better high-speed service to London, they've all got pretty good fast train to London. that's just about the one good train service they have already got."

Experts have been warning that the costs of the HS2 line will cost taxpayers more and outweigh the benefits it will provide for British citizens.

Levelling up secretary Michael Gove has warned in recent weeks that the line could face a review as Tories analyse the national budget.

The Government has faced criticism since the project launched as fields and woodland has been ripped down in order to build the line.

The HS2 line was originally planned to connect Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham and London but work first started to connect London to the West Midlands.

 

[MarkyT]

Well, a 250km/h bypass (a bit more like Colwich than HS2) would do it a heck of a lot cheaper than a 400km/h one!

I've long been a proponent of the German/Swiss Neubaustrecke model over the French style model HS2 is largely following, to be fair. 400km/h is profligate and unnecessary.

Brunel might have saved a small amount of money back in the 1840s if he had reduced GWML curve radius down to the minimum required for the 60mph or so that was probably considered the maximum possible with traction of the time. The modern incarnation of that company wouldn't be travelling daily at 125mph on that same infrastructure today of course, but its always worth spoiling the ship for a hap'o'rth of tar...

 

[JonathanH]

HS2 also creates a lot of jobs in the supply chain, a worker for a quarry and aggregates company is going to be pretty annoyed when a major client is terminated. And the boss will also be pretty annoyed when their customer looses a client.

It doesn't just affect the firms contracted by HS2, the contracts normally taken by the big firms can be taken by smaller ones as the larger company is busy with HS2 work.

I think you are right that an announcement to cut HS2 would lead to a fall in share prices of construction firms. However, I don't think they would go so far as to cut existing contracts.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Brunel might have saved a small amount of money back in the 1840s if he had reduced GWML curve radius down to the minimum required for the 60mph or so that was probably considered the maximum possible with traction of the time. The modern incarnation of that company wouldn't be travelling daily at 125mph on that same infrastructure today of course, but its always worth spoiling the ship for a hap'o'rth of tar...

Meanwhile DB's ICE4 is a 250km/h unit rather than a 300km/h one. Environmental considerations are causing a general reduction in speeds - we're no longer in an era of blind technological development.

 

[irish_rail]

Well the country is broke, there supposedly isn't money for payrises meaning people will soon be unable to pay the mortgage.
If HS2 needs knocking on the head for a few years then so be it. I'm sure the first stage will still happen whatever happens but maybe the northern bits can wait until the country can afford it. It won't be a great loss frankly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think you are right that an announcement to cut HS2 would lead to a fall in share prices of construction firms. However, I don't think they would go so far as to cut existing contracts.

I am pretty sure Phase 1 will be built - it's just too far along not to, it'd cost a fortune making good and paying exit penalties on contracts even if you did stop it.

On the other hand, I'm pretty sure Phase 2A and 2B will be cut in some form, and a cut to the rolling stock budget may also be in order - slower units would be cheaper.

 

[JonathanH]

maybe the northern bits can wait until the country can afford it

I suspect the problem is that if it is put off now the country will never be able to afford it.

 

[MarkyT]

Meanwhile DB's ICE4 is a 250km/h unit rather than a 300km/h one. Environmental considerations are causing a general reduction in speeds - we're no longer in an era of blind technological development.

DB are also purchasing 320kph Velaro D and MS trains for certain domestic HS routes with longer stop spacing where that speed can make a difference, and international services. These are claimed to save around 20% of the energy used by existing ICE3 trains. The 250kph of the ICE4 is achieved with something like a 40% energy saving over the ICE1 and ICE2 trains they are replacing. ICE4 trains are slightly slower in top speed capability than their predecessors, but end-to-end performance on typical duties assigned is equivalent because their decreased weight and improved aerodynamics result in better acceleration that compensates. ICE4s are used on routes that have shorter stop spacing and often some significant distance running on improved classic infrastructure (all lines have this to a greater or lesser extent). Velaro Novo is the latest concept train from Siemens which I believe was offered to HS2. With yet further weight savings and air smoothing developments, these trains save more energy and will be capable of speeds of up to 360kph.

 

[HSTEd]

Well, a 250km/h bypass (a bit more like Colwich than HS2) would do it a heck of a lot cheaper than a 400km/h one!

The bypass of Stockport through the tunnel is already only 250km/h north of the Airport! And that's the expensive part.

Meanwhile DB's ICE4 is a 250km/h unit rather than a 300km/h one. Environmental considerations are causing a general reduction in speeds - we're no longer in an era of blind technological development.

No, that's happening because by limiting the trains to 249km/h electronically they are not required to comply with the TSIs. That saves significant amounts of money

 

[Gostav]

In addition, billions of pounds could be diverted to rail projects that are really needed, in the north and in Wales, and are being sidelined by the Treasury to pay for HS2.

I bet that even if the project does get cancelled, this money won't go where they want to.

Let's see who will finish first HS2 or Chuo Shinkansen.

 

[HSTEd]

I bet that even if the project does get cancelled, this money won't go where they want to.

They complain about HS2 being a money pit, then propose to divert the money to schemes that make HS2 look like a licence to print money.

 

[JonathanH]

I bet that even if the project does get cancelled, this money won't go where they want to.

No, HS2 is funded only from the growth it creates, which was assumed to be more that for smaller projects.

 

[swt_passenger]

They complain about HS2 being a money pit, then propose to divert the money to schemes that make HS2 look like a licence to print money.

Because they think the money is already there sitting in a big piggy bank labelled ‘railways’...

 

[JN114]

Cutting HS2 achieves nothing for the government in actually addressing the fiscal issues the country faces. The money “saved” can’t be used to plug the budgetary black holes elsewhere as it doesn’t exist without the project. It’s also well proven over and over and over again that public spending on infrastructure is precisely the best means to stimulate the economy; but that doesn’t sit well with the current government’s core philosophy.

That the project’s most vocal naysayers are baying for its execution is of little surprise; but we should simply continue to ignore them and their self-serving agendas as we have done until now. The current fiscal turbulence doesn’t make any of their transparent arguments any more valid.

 

[gazzaa2]

Too far down the line now. If Covid happened a year earlier it would have been scrapped by now. It was approved just in time.

 

[Bevan Price]

I think Phase 1 is too far along to scrap, though I suppose it could be slowed down to spread the spending over a longer period, and possibly things could be specced down a bit, e.g. more standard 300km/h rolling stock instead of higher cost 400km/h capable stock, or even consider reducing the speed to 250km/h which would allow near-standard 80x to be procured instead, or even for the initial Phase 1 opening use Pendolinos. Even post COVID, it's the south WCML that's the "worst bit" in terms of capacity pressure and reliability if more freight is desirable.

Phase 2A and 2B should probably, in the context, be revisited to see if the key features can be provided more cheaply, i.e. relieving the lines south of Manchester and north of Birmingham. I'm less convinced that the Trent Valley is that much of an issue.

I think this is actually roughly what we will see from Hunt. Plus, as 2A and 2B are so far in the future, he can say it now in full knowledge that he won't be Chancellor then (barring major ructions I think a Labour Government is near certain at the next General Election) and so they will be able to reinstate it if seen fit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Nov 2022 ==



The situation wasn't quite as pressing in 2010.

By the time we next have a Labour government, the economy will be in such a mess that they will be unable to afford to do very much. Just as in the post-Beeching era Wilson government, reinstating cancelled railway schemes will get a low priority.

HS2 may reach Birmingham, but few reading this will be around to see many additions beyond Birmingham.

 

[Bald Rick]

There is a good deal of misinformation being spread about how much cancelling HS2 will save. For phase 1, we are past the point where it will be cheaper to finish it than to stop work and undo what has been done. Nearly £20bn has been spent, with a further £10bn under contract.

Lord Berkeley (amongst others) is claiming that the current work could be stopped, the land resold, and some parts used for other railway projects, and the country would only be a few billion down. This is patent nonsense Of the highest order. And I’m not sure what use to other railway projects 2 x 4 mile long tunnels that go from the M25 to halfway through the Chilterns would be.

 

[MarkyT]

The bypass of Stockport through the tunnel is already only 250km/h north of the Airport! And that's the expensive part.

So notional NPR trains will only need to be capable of that lower maximum to optimise line capacity between there and Piccadilly.

No, that's happening because by limiting the trains to 249km/h electronically they are not required to comply with the TSIs. That saves significant amounts of money

At that speed, they fall below a threshold in the TSIs pertaining to demonstrating crash resistance which means weight and thus energy savings can be more significant. As I said before, on the duties they are employed on they can equal earlier, notionally faster, trains' performance, because that weight saving also enables better acceleration between the relatively frequent stops.

 

[Wyrleybart]

There is a good deal of misinformation being spread about how much cancelling HS2 will save. For phase 1, we are past the point where it will be cheaper to finish it than to stop work and undo what has been done. Nearly £20bn has been spent, with a further £10bn under contract.

Lord Berkeley (amongst others) is claiming that the current work could be stopped, the land resold, and some parts used for other railway projects, and the country would only be a few billion down. This is patent nonsense Of the highest order. And I’m not sure what use to other railway projects 2 x 4 mile long tunnels that go from the M25 to halfway through the Chilterns would be.

Spot on. If anyone cares to drive around greater Birmingham at the moment they will see huge bridgeworks in multiple locations from Warwickshire through to Staffordshire.

 

[Bald Rick]

Spot on. If anyone cares to drive around greater Birmingham at the moment they will see huge bridgeworks in multiple locations from Warwickshire through to Staffordshire.

As it happens I have done just that today, and through Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire too. The whole route is one very long hive of activity.

 

[NoRoute]

That the project’s most vocal naysayers are baying for its execution is of little surprise; but we should simply continue to ignore them and their self-serving agendas as we have done until now. The current fiscal turbulence doesn’t make any of their transparent arguments any more valid.

The goal of HS2 was to stimulate the economies of the North and Midlands but the costs have risen to such a degree that it's far from certain whether HS2 will ever get north of Birmingham and whether those benefits will ever get delivered.

As the project has progressed and those original goals and justifications have faded away, at some point there has to be a re-appraisal of what HS2's purpose now is and what benefits it can deliver within a reasonable budget and time span.

Spot on. If anyone cares to drive around greater Birmingham at the moment they will see huge bridgeworks in multiple locations from Warwickshire through to Staffordshire.

Quite, but anyone driving round those areas in rush hour is normally stuck in awful traffic jams. Which begs the question, if you really want to boost the local economy do you put all your eggs into the HS2 basket, or would you maybe trim it back to ensure there's still some funds available for improving the local transport infrastructure of the Midlands. Parked up in stationary traffic looking out onto a HS2 construction site, I have wondered how much better the local economy would be if you could get around the Midlands more easily.