Future of TPE

[Killingworth]

It has:

Cars on the M6

easyJet aircraft landing

Why don't people get this? You don't need on-rail competition. There is other competition, and it's winning because it likes to ignore that fact. The number of people driving these journeys (in particular) is so massive that there is effectively an indefinite number of potential customers to attract.

It's frightening to contemplate how a mere doubling of rail's market share could be managed with present infrastructure, rolling stock and organisation. On many routes the potential is probably greater than that and in the fairly near future. TPE operates on some of them!

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's frightening to contemplate how a mere doubling of rail's market share could be managed with present infrastructure, rolling stock and organisation. On many routes the potential is probably greater than that and in the fairly near future. TPE operates on some of them!

A lot of routes suppress demand by way of outrageous fares (yes, you, Avanti) but while TPE is hardly Eurocheap it's not swingeing either (Anytime for a similar distance* about half what Avanti charge, though Off Peak surprisingly a little more expensive, but equally far, far less restricted other than on a Friday). TPE is suppressing demand by (a) being awful, and (b) not having enough capacity (shows just how much single 185 operation was suppressing demand before!)

* Comparing Liverpool-Newcastle with London-Manchester, which as the crow flies is about 140 vs 160 miles.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Although it would make sense it’s best for Avanti have some competition up to Glasgow and that would require training Liverpool staff all the way up the west coast which could take years and Avanti only have about 10 805s

Well it officially wouldn’t as you’d be TUPEing in the staff, at Preston and Glasgow at least. Then it’s just a small link of guys at Liverpool, probably the same small link who would learn Holyhead and the Hitachis. They only need to learn up Liverpool to Preston via St Helens and hey presto…

 

[HamworthyGoods]

I think this is easily solved, if it’s allowed to be.

The Liverpool to Leeds trunk route via Lea Green, Victoria and Huddersfield (those stations only) should be half-hourly, and every hour it should extend to Newcastle (802s) and Hull (loco-hauled).

That won’t easily solve it, part of the issue currently is the vast amount of training for diversionary routes for the TRU. Moving the 68 and mk5s to yet another new route (Hull in your proposal) will do little to solve the traincrew issues.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

That won’t easily solve it, part of the issue currently is the vast amount of training for diversionary routes for the TRU. Moving the 68 and mk5s to yet another new route (Hull in your proposal) will do little to solve the traincrew issues.

You will always have something that requires training. At least if the Leeds depot is merged with XC, along with Newcastle and part of Manchester Piccadilly, and then it is all run as a large group, you are going to make the space.

Your argument sadly is one that suggests nothing should ever be changed for fear of a few trains being cancelled to accommodate training.

Aren’t XC also considering going to Hull in the future anyway as a diversion of the existing service from Doncaster? I appreciate Covid has intervened, but it was in the pipe.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

That won’t easily solve it, part of the issue currently is the vast amount of training for diversionary routes for the TRU. Moving the 68 and mk5s to yet another new route (Hull in your proposal) will do little to solve the traincrew issues.

The Hull leg is probably the worst option to send the Mk5a sets to, given that it has SP speeds in a few places unlike Scarborough. That's one of the reasons the 170s were usually dedicated to Hull services back when TPE had them.

Then again 185s work fine with the restrictions, so maybe the loco hauled sets would too.

 

[JonathanH]

Aren’t XC also considering going to Hull in the future anyway as a diversion of the existing service from Doncaster? I appreciate Covid has intervened, but it was in the pipe.

I don't think XC are considering it. It has just been mentioned in various documents as a possible alternative destination for XC services to try and reduce the number of services between York and Newcastle to a more manageable level.

However, with XC only running 1tph most hours on their routes, it has been managed a different way.

Even if XC went to Hull, it wouldn't change what TPE do, as it would be instead of the Northern service from Sheffield, not instead of the TPE from Leeds.

Not really clear how combined XC and TPE traincrew depots would make that much difference if they are running essentially different routes.

 

[Facing Back]

A lot of routes suppress demand by way of outrageous fares (yes, you, Avanti) but while TPE is hardly Eurocheap it's not swingeing either (Anytime for a similar distance* about half what Avanti charge, though Off Peak surprisingly a little more expensive, but equally far, far less restricted other than on a Friday). TPE is suppressing demand by (a) being awful, and (b) not having enough capacity (shows just how much single 185 operation was suppressing demand before!)

* Comparing Liverpool-Newcastle with London-Manchester, which as the crow flies is about 140 vs 160 miles.

I don't have an issue with TPE's ticket prices. I do have an issue with having a first class ticket with a reservation and not being able to get close to be able to board my train at Leeds.

The last time I tried it I ended up buying a bottle of wine and some M&S food, getting the train to York then getting the train back to Manchester from there as I could get on, get a seat, and watch the scrum at Leeds when we pulled in. The guard/first class host - sorry not sure who is who these days - didn't charge me for the round trip. I got home 3 hours late and somewhat sozzled.

I'm not doing that again in the near future - although I love York!

 

[Killingworth]

A lot of routes suppress demand by way of outrageous fares (yes, you, Avanti) but while TPE is hardly Eurocheap it's not swingeing either (Anytime for a similar distance* about half what Avanti charge, though Off Peak surprisingly a little more expensive, but equally far, far less restricted other than on a Friday). TPE is suppressing demand by (a) being awful, and (b) not having enough capacity (shows just how much single 185 operation was suppressing demand before!)

* Comparing Liverpool-Newcastle with London-Manchester, which as the crow flies is about 140 vs 160 miles.

Single fare Sheffield - Manchester tomorrow morning prices quoted just now for 42 miles;

TPE 7.07 £24.00 should be 6 car, recently more often 3 when it runs
Northern 7.11 £9.50 normally 3 car
EMR 7.28 £24.00 normally 2 car
TPE 8.08 £12.90 should be 6 car, recently likely to be 3 if it runs
Northern 8.11 £8.14 normally 3 car
EMR 8.45 £16.50 normally 4 car

Booking longer in advance can get big savings on the fast trains, maybe to £10.10 on TPE, £12.00 on EMR. Fares aren't putting so many off. It's the awful service.

 

[Killingworth]

Tomorrow is the Northern Transport Summit in Liverpool. Mark Harper and the Northern City Mayors will be there. Earlier today I watched the Rail North Committee meeting live. Mayor Driscoll from Tyneside told of his difficulty getting to Liverpool from Newcastle by TPE this afternoon. I've just checked to get there from Sheffield tomorrow morning. Good at present, all are running, but too good to be true? Yes. To return by TPE the 15.19, 16.19, 17.19 and 18.19 all seem to be cancelled.

Today's report from TPE stated that their recovery plans are gradually bearing fruit but there's nothing anyone can do to improve matters much more until the industrial relations issues are resolved. Rather a bleak picture it seems, whoever has control.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A reduced emergency timetable would help. It largely worked for Avanti.

 

[nr758123]

Today's report from TPE stated that their recovery plans are gradually bearing fruit but there's nothing anyone can do to improve matters much more until the industrial relations issues are resolved. Rather a bleak picture it seems, whoever has control.

Matthew Golton made a claim that there had been improvement over the past four weeks. I've been travelling on TPE an average of 4 days a week during that period and I have not experienced this alleged improvement.

 

[RailWonderer]

The 16:19 ex-Liverpool to Cleethorpes cancelled today. No reinstatement of the 09:xx from Cleethorpes either, only an 08:24 and a 10:26. Woeful, the timetable is reduced already and they can’t even deliver it.

As a southerner my standards for rail are higher than apathetic northerners but still. Not acceptable at all. I have not been on a 185 on over a year except for one short journey as they all seem to be cancelled apart from a few Manchester - Saltburns (a stupid extension) and some local stoppers. Increasingly relying on Northern and long waits at Sheffield time and time again.

And what’s with this shuttle? It’s almost an insult just running that service.

Realtime Trains | 1911 Sheffield to Meadowhall | 23/02/2023

Real-time train running information for 1911 departure from Sheffield to Meadowhall on 23/02/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[Killingworth]

The 16:19 ex-Liverpool to Cleethorpes cancelled today. No reinstatement of the 09:xx from Cleethorpes either, only an 08:24 and a 10:26. Woeful, the timetable is reduced already and they can’t even deliver it.

As a southerner my standards for rail are higher than apathetic northerners but still. Not acceptable at all. I have not been on a 185 on over a year except for one short journey as they all seem to be cancelled apart from a few Manchester - Saltburns (a stupid extension) and some local stoppers. Increasingly relying on Northern and long waits at Sheffield time and time again.

And what’s with this shuttle? It’s almost an insult just running that service.

Realtime Trains | 1911 Sheffield to Meadowhall | 23/02/2023

Real-time train running information for 1911 departure from Sheffield to Meadowhall on 23/02/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

That shuttle carried on to Cleethorpes: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:C84947/2023-02-23

The TPE South Pennine eastbound service from Liverpool today needs to be viewed to realise how deep a hole needs to be filled: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se.../0000-2359?stp=WVSC&show=all&order=wtt&toc=TP

 

[Gaz55]

I'm might be missing the point, but I'm struggling to see the logic of the Southern route being extended to Liverpool, especially given the all the current problems that TPE are facing.

A good chunk of the services either terminate short or are cancelled alltogether, the planned traction for the route only actually completed 1 full journey, if I'm not mistaken.

Most trains that do run are 3 car only. An appalling state off affairs if ever there was.

 

[RailWonderer]

That shuttle carried on to Cleethorpes: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:C84947/2023-02-23

The TPE South Pennine eastbound service from Liverpool today needs to be viewed to realise how deep a hole needs to be filled: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se.../0000-2359?stp=WVSC&show=all&order=wtt&toc=TP

I realised that after I checked the departures at Sheffield but it left an hour after I did. In this state even a further reduced timetable wouldn't help at all.

I might be changing the subject to past of TPE but apparently many drivers took Covid leave and/or retired this past two years and the huge backlog of new drivers to be trained is taking more months and years than planned. Could some drivers not be convinced to unretire for another year or two? Just a few more drivers and a few more circuits would help enormously.

 

[SuperNova]

I'm might be missing the point, but I'm struggling to see the logic of the Southern route being extended to Liverpool, especially given the all the current problems that TPE are facing.

Manchester Rail Taskforce. It had to be done apparently.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Could some drivers not be convinced to unretire for another year or two? Just a few more drivers and a few more circuits would help enormously.

Unless they only retired in the last few months, they'd still have to relearn the routes and traction at the very least.

 

[RailWonderer]

Unless they only retired in the last few months, they'd still have to relearn the routes and traction at the very least.

What is the date of expiry of traction knowledge, a year, 18 months, two years? Who decides the timeframe? Maybe they could just do refresher courses rather than a full relearn and reduce some red tape to get some drivers back in again. It wouldn't be like training a completely new driver. For a few more trains to run it surely has to be worth it and as the MD of TPE said this isn't going to solve itself anytime soon.

 

[Greybeard33]

I'm might be missing the point, but I'm struggling to see the logic of the Southern route being extended to Liverpool, especially given the all the current problems that TPE are facing.

Manchester Rail Taskforce. It had to be done apparently.

The MTF timetable changes were based on the pre-Covid December 2019 timetable, in which the Cleethorpes service reversed at Piccadilly and terminated at Manchester Airport. In that timetable there was a Northern semi-fast from Liverpool to the Airport via Warrington Central, which arrived at and departed from the Airport within a few minutes of the Cleethorpes. The MTF timetable, eventually introduced in December 2022, linked these two services together at Piccadilly, with TPE taking over the Northern paths between Piccadilly and Liverpool. The aim was to reduce congestion in Piccadilly throat and reduce pressure on Manchester Airport platform capacity, which had restricted the ability to strengthen the two separate services to 6-car.

I think it was too late to back out the timetable change by the time TPE admitted it might have too few trained drivers to operate the service to Liverpool reliably.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

What is the date of expiry of traction knowledge, a year, 18 months, two years? Who decides the timeframe? Maybe they could just do refresher courses rather than a full relearn and reduce some red tape to get some drivers back in again. It wouldn't be like training a completely new driver. For a few more trains to run it surely has to be worth it and as the MD of TPE said this isn't going to solve itself anytime soon.

For routes I think it's six months, but that's based on a single source (a mate who's a driver, and it's a while since we had the conversation as he doesn't like "talking shop" all the time) so it might vary between operators. Not sure about traction but I would expect it to be similar.
Doing refreshers will take less time than training complete newcomers, but it isn't necessarily a "quick win" as the TOC still needs to organise them (paths, spare units, instructors).

 

[Greybeard33]

Tomorrow is the Northern Transport Summit in Liverpool. Mark Harper and the Northern City Mayors will be there. Earlier today I watched the Rail North Committee meeting live. Mayor Driscoll from Tyneside told of his difficulty getting to Liverpool from Newcastle by TPE this afternoon. I've just checked to get there from Sheffield tomorrow morning. Good at present, all are running, but too good to be true? Yes. To return by TPE the 15.19, 16.19, 17.19 and 18.19 all seem to be cancelled.

Today's report from TPE stated that their recovery plans are gradually bearing fruit but there's nothing anyone can do to improve matters much more until the industrial relations issues are resolved. Rather a bleak picture it seems, whoever has control.

I have now watched the webcast of that Rail North Committee meeting. North of Tyne Mayor Jamie Driscoll also raised the issue of the TPE policy of restricting traincrew route knowledge, such that multiple crew changes are now needed on a route like Newcastle to Liverpool. He said TPE drivers had told him this policy had greatly reduced service reliability and that they had consequently lost trust in the competence of TPE management (several TPE traincrew have previously raised this same issue in these forums).

TPE MD Matthew Golton did not address these comments in his response.

https://transportforthenorth.com/calendar/rail-north-committee-meeting-22-feb-2023/

 

[SuperNova]

I think it was too late to back out the timetable change by the time TPE admitted it might have too few trained drivers to operate the service to Liverpool reliably.

I was of this position, but apparently it had to go ahead for industry reasons.

 

[Efini92]

There is absolutely no consistency to this idea at all. Why would Manchester to Scotland via Preston services be under LNER, but Northern cross-pennine services under XC?

There’s a rumour doing the rounds at the minute that tpe is going to be split. The Anglo Scottish services will go to XC and the rest to northern.

 

[Trainbike46]

There’s a rumour doing the rounds at the minute that tpe is going to be split. The Anglo Scottish services will go to XC and the rest to northern.

including the Manchester/Liverpool to Edinburgh/Glasgow via WCML? Wouldn't they fit better with Avanti?

Though I can see how the services via the ECML would fit with XC

 

[Peter Sarf]

(deleted)

 

[Bletchleyite]

Manchester-Scotland has been XC before, but to me Avanti would make more sense.

Or if it refers to Newcastle-Edinburgh, yes I could see sense in XC taking those services on with their existing rolling stock plus perhaps the ex Avanti Voyagers to make up any shortfall.

 

[Neptune]

Manchester-Scotland has been XC before, but to me Avanti would make more sense.

Definitely makes more sense with Avanti.

Or if it refers to Newcastle-Edinburgh, yes I could see sense in XC taking those services on with their existing rolling stock plus perhaps the ex Avanti Voyagers to make up any shortfall.

Trouble is this service is a way of getting the 802’s to Craigentinny so would be best staying with whoever runs the North TPE service.

 

[Some guy]

There’s a rumour doing the rounds at the minute that tpe is going to be split. The Anglo Scottish services will go to XC and the rest to northern.

This is just speculation but I highly doubt that will happen especially with Glasgow and Preston TPE depots. The most likely thing to happen is TPE becomes nationalised and the service stays roughly the same as they have 3 different types of trains Nova 1,2 and 3 on top of having to get non tilt voyagers back on the west coast

 

[Peter Sarf]

Definitely makes more sense with Avanti.

Trouble is this service is a way of getting the 802’s to Craigentinny so would be best staying with whoever runs the North TPE service.

Nah, not Avanti.

I am not sure but I think the 802s only do the North Transpennine service that goes all the way Northwards from York so likely they all reach Edinburgh anyway.

Would the TPE services to Scarborough and Cleethorpes be ending up with Northern or XC ?. I would assume not Northern - so 68+Mk5s would go to XC.

If anything the above means XC provides competition to Avanti WC, LNER and Northern. Healthy in the governments eyes !.

But not sure what would be left of TPE to hand over to Northern (185s but for where).

Afterthoughts :-

XC ending up with TPEs 802s no problem of a microfleet as I can see XC going all IET any way. Got to keep the DfTs beloved IET factory alive. We have not seen a rush to take on Avantis 221s have we.

Yet more reason to stoke my fear that the TPE 68+Mk5s are doomed to early retirement.