More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Trainbike46]

Is a fare surcharge supposed to be part of the plan?

they are not

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

In reality we are talking about Alice in Wonderland here when you start talking about mid 2030's its that far away it could easily be overturned with a change of government in 18mths and put back on track. Also this is about protecting Tory seats in Cheshire at the moment and making sure what money is left is being committed to IRP projects up North so they can make political capital from that to bolster the Red Wall seats

 

[InTheEastMids]

In the real world, handing out a contract worth tens of billions is more than sufficient motivation to get them to be the ones to back themselves, and commit to completing the project for a fixed fee. If they finish early, they get the benefit of having that massive good star on their resume. If they are late or go overbudget, the Treasury is insulated, and might even get the entire thing at cost if the consortium goes bust.

No sane commercial contractor could commit to projects of the scale of the HS2 main works packages on a fixed-fee basis. It's not about whether or not they "back themselves".

Fixed fee is really only likely to work when the scope is well defined and the contractor can absorb the foreseeable costs of over-run. No contractor could do that on the HS2 main packages, they would just go bust (and they are all joint ventures partly to manage these sorts of risks). So all that would happen if HS2 had tried this procurement approach is that they'd have had no bidders for the work.

If somebody was mad enough to bid it on this basis, then when they went bust, HS2 would be left sitting there with a half-built project and no contractor and no staff. Any new contractor appointed would put a huge risk premium because they wouldn't be sure what they'd find when they took on the job.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is a fare surcharge supposed to be part of the plan?

HS2 only really works, with its 400m trains, if it's operated on a "pile it high, sell it cheap" basis. Otherwise the trains will be half empty.

For the time when it's only Old Oak to Brum they are going to have to undercut even LNR if they don't want it running empty, to take account of the faff of getting to Old Oak.

 

[Energy]

to take account of the faff of getting to Old Oak.

Is it that much of a faff? With the Elizabeth line it's pretty quick and easy from Canary Wharf. A 20 minute Elizabeth line journey is quicker than the tube to Euston.

HS2 only really works, with its 400m trains, if it's operated on a "pile it high, sell it cheap" basis. Otherwise the trains will be half empty.

HS2 also acts like WCML 6 tracking, once the intercity services have been shifted over to HS2 the WCML can be 110mph commuters and freight only, with the remaining Avanti services probably fitting in with 110mph commuters.

 

[Meerkat]

Is it that much of a faff? With the Elizabeth line it's pretty quick and easy from Canary Wharf. A 20 minute Elizabeth line journey is quicker than the tube to Euston.

Would annoy those in walking/short bus/tube ride of Euston, and those who use cabs to Euston wont want to go on the Lizzie.

 

[Goldfish62]

How much would that cost in terms of compensation for cancelled contracts, clearing/demolishing work already started and loss of jobs?

As well as leaving large areas of the countryside littered with unlandscaped earthworks, concrete and empty tunnels.

But I suppose the routing could be used to build a new road. Seems to be what people want these days - turn the whole country into one big road.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would annoy those in walking/short bus/tube ride of Euston, and those who use cabs to Euston wont want to go on the Lizzie.

Correct. Not everyone uses the Tube from Euston. I very rarely do, it's a bus or walking, and plenty use taxis.

OOC will no doubt suit some people, that's why it's being built, it's certainly not a white elephant. However, it's nonsensical to have Britain's premier railway not run into central London.

HS2 also acts like WCML 6 tracking, once the intercity services have been shifted over to HS2 the WCML can be 110mph commuters and freight only, with the remaining Avanti services probably fitting in with 110mph commuters.

There will be residual classic line IC services because there are stations south of Birmingham with significant demand. They will largely look like the services that presently serve MKC but with a few more stops.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Correct. Not everyone uses the Tube from Euston. I very rarely do, it's a bus or walking, and plenty use taxis.

OOC will no doubt suit some people, that's why it's being built, it's certainly not a white elephant. However, it's nonsensical to have Britain's premier railway not run into central London.



There will be residual classic line IC services because there are stations south of Birmingham with significant demand. They will largely look like the services that presently serve MKC but with a few more stops.

And they can't even commit to building LO stations there, which would be useful for us South Londoners...

 

[Richardr]

Correct. Not everyone uses the Tube from Euston. I very rarely do, it's a bus or walking, and plenty use taxis.

OOC will no doubt suit some people, that's why it's being built, it's certainly not a white elephant. However, it's nonsensical to have Britain's premier railway not run into central London.



There will be residual classic line IC services because there are stations south of Birmingham with significant demand. They will largely look like the services that presently serve MKC but with a few more stops.

Accepting that Oak Common will be as useful for many passengers, the danger is of course that those who would rather go from Birmingham to somewhere near to or easier to reach from Euston don't use it in favour of the existing line, and so the comment you made earlier "pile it high" fails from that point of view.

 

[Meerkat]

And they can't even commit to building LO stations there, which would be useful for us South Londoners...

Not particularly useful as they were to be a good walk away from OOC station. A people mover from Willesden would be more useful.

 

[camflyer]

As well as leaving large areas of the countryside littered with unlandscaped earthworks, concrete and empty tunnels.

But I suppose the routing could be used to build a new road. Seems to be what people want these days - turn the whole country into one big road.

If the NIMBYs don't want a new railway line l then they are going to be livid over a motorway

 

[Taunton]

One of (the few) occasions that I agree with Mayor Khan in London is saying that delaying the completion of Euston but running full HS2 services to Old Oak is going to make the Elizabeth there unacceptable, quoted here:

MSN

www.msn.com

Quite so. One of the first issues with the EL was morning passengers at Acton unable to get in. Recent (even yesterday afternoon) experience is that this is now a well-used corridor, with substantial standing passengers already. How the bulk of the WCML Euston passengers, from Birmingham/Liverpool/Manchester/Glasgow etc, apparently long term now, are going to fit, even with the EL Paddington terminators extended out there, seems just impractical. Further, The arriving HS2 passengers are not going to be a steady stream, but will come in spurts with the arrivals.

It's also the stupidity we have seen previously, huge expenditure on a high-speed line being fully countermanded by a major issue at the terminus.

 

[Meerkat]

If the NIMBYs don't want a new railway line l then they are going to be livid over a motorway

Stick a big ugly junction in - "I thought you were complaining that HS2 was no use to you?"

One of (the few) occasions that I agree with Mayor Khan in London is saying that delaying the completion of Euston but running full HS2 services to Old Oak is going to make the Elizabeth there unacceptable

Wont he be happy about the extra revenue?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Not particularly useful as they were to be a good walk away from OOC station. A people mover from Willesden would be more useful.

Yes that wasn't great. I remember seeing some great diagrams on London Reconnections some years ago that showed some different placements for the station. One sited over North Pole depot in a "Poiroit's Moustache" formation seemed the best.

 

[Mikey C]

Taking a simplistic scenario -

If a project was budgeted to cost £50bn at £5bn a year (in 2023 money) for 10 years, but the cost then went up by 20%, then sticking to that schedule would mean a cost of £6bn a year for 10 years (i.e. £60bn) at the same schedule.

If you don't have an extra £1bn a year to spend and can only spend £5bn a year, then you'll need 12 years at £5bn a year to complete, i.e. it'll take 2 years longer to complete, with no downgrade in spec.

Obviously the real world is more complicated like that, but I imagine that's the discussion happening.

The total cost over the 12 years will increase in your example:

1. simple inflation (supposedly the cause of this now)
2. some costs continue at the same expense each year - e.g. project management but there re many more - so 12 years rather than 10 years of such costs is 20% more expensive
3. putting items on hold and then starting them up again means any external contracts involved need compensating for in the first place and are then potentially more costly to renegotiate a second time.

Quoting myself and a reply, this is entirely down to available CASH each year, which is a different concept to the overall cost.

If someone needs to buy a fridge and the "financing" options were either £500 up front or 3 monthly payments of £185 (totalling £555), then the former is clearly better value if you have £500 available, but if you don't have £500 immediately available but can put aside £185 a month, then you use the latter option.

 

[IndianPacific]

Is a fare surcharge supposed to be part of the plan?

they are not

But the HS2 IM will be allowed to charge the TOC an Investment Recovery Charge which will ultimately be reflected in the ticket prices... https://www.orr.gov.uk/search-news/hs2-infrastructure-manager-can-levy-investment-recovery-charge

 

[Greybeard33]

Just to reinforce that point, the Full Business Case for HS2 Phase 1, April 2020, was based on an opening strategy TSS of 6tph - 3tph to Curzon St and 3tph via Handsacre.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/939905/full-business-case-hs2-phase-one.pdf

That same document also had an alternative "Statement of Intent" opening strategy TSS, with the same 6tph services from OOC as the "Parliamentary Powers" TSS but using Phase 2a to Crewe instead of the Handsacre Link:

“Statement of Intent” Opening Strategy TSS between 2029 and 2031
.• The phased opening assumed 6 trains per hour (tph) from Old Oak Common between 2029 and 2031. The TSS provides the following services to/from Old Oak Common making use of Phase One and 2a networks:
• 3tph Old Oak Common – Birmingham Curzon Street
• 1tph Old Oak Common – Liverpool Street via Crewe and Runcorn (via Phase 2a infrastructure)
• 1tph Old Oak Common – Manchester Piccadilly via Wilmslow and Stockport (via Phase 2a infrastructure)
• 1tph Old Oak Common – Glasgow Central via Warrington, Wigan, Preston and Carlisle (via Phase 2a infrastructure)

That "Statement of Intent" to open Phase 2a at the same time as OOC has now been countermanded by yesterday's announcement.

 

[IndianPacific]

Is it that much of a faff? With the Elizabeth line it's pretty quick and easy from Canary Wharf. A 20 minute Elizabeth line journey is quicker than the tube to Euston.

The test to / from Canary Wharf seems to come up through this thread, but Euston provides connections to the Northern, Victoria (and under current scope) the Circle / Met / H&C lines so opens up a single connection to loads of destinations that would consider OOC a faff.

 

[Tetchytyke]

HS2 only really works, with its 400m trains, if it's operated on a "pile it high, sell it cheap" basis. Otherwise the trains will be half empty.

Sadly I don’t see how that works with enhanced track access charges that will be required to repay the investment.

What I think will happen is the existing Birmingham-London WCML trains will be butchered to make them completely unattractive to through passengers enhance capacity at smaller intermediate stations.

It’s what they did with HS1, with “classic” services stoping at every lamp-post between Ashford and Orpington.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

Sadly I don’t see how that works with enhanced track access charges that will be required to repay the investment.

What I think will happen is the existing Birmingham-London WCML trains will be butchered to make them completely unattractive to through passengers enhance capacity at smaller intermediate stations.

It’s what they did with HS1, with “classic” services stoping at every lamp-post between Ashford and Orpington.

Which is what LNWR do anyway, adding in Watford Jnc and Harrow to the Crewe services will hardly butcher the service

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Quoting myself and a reply, this is entirely down to available CASH each year, which is a different concept to the overall cost.

If someone needs to buy a fridge and the "financing" options were either £500 up front or 3 monthly payments of £185 (totalling £555), then the former is clearly better value if you have £500 available, but if you don't have £500 immediately available but can put aside £185 a month, then you use the latter option.

The govt is borrowing 2B/week and as been paying 3.8-4.2% for it depending on maturity date and there is no shortage of buyers. The Bank of England is also selling down its gilt purchases at the rate of 650m/wk and again it is mobbed at every auction with sufficient buyers. So the govt could easily borrow the money this is a political decision by those that are in the cabinet now largely being anti HS2 so they can capitalise on it in advance of the general election. I also believe it will shore up the likes TRU and other Northern IPR projects to sell to the red wall seats.

 

[Tezza1978]

Sigh.

There is so much on this thread that is assumed and incorrect. I suggest everyone reads the Government announcement - and carefully

The project is not being paused for two years.

It was always the case that OOC - Curzon St would open first (a captive system), followed by Delta Jn to Handsacre for OOC - ‘the north’ trains. This doesn’t change, nor does the timing of that in the ‘2029-2033’ range. I expect to be on the first train.

Euston - OOC and Handsacre - Crewe were slated to open later, but at the same time. The announcement today is not of a two year delay, but of using the next two years to rephase 2a and deliver an ‘affordable‘ Euston. Euston is a massive job, as anyone who has looked at the site and the very large holes in the ground and thousands of tonnes of concrete already poured will testify. Work will continue.

The Government has restated its commitment to Euston to Manchester. Whilst it may be for the next Government to progress delivery, it would also be that next Government to decide if they didn’t want to do so. The chances of that are effectively nil, as by then the bill will be an Act, land will be purchased, and the business case even better.


For those that think it should have been built north to south - please do think about that. Specifically, about the benefits of doing so, compared to going south to north.

Excellent post. The idea that its going to be a permanent OOC- Curzon St service with train speeds limited to 125mph and the whole rest of the project then canned is absolute rubbish - and only being pushed in certain media stories by people rabidly opposed to HS2.

 

[Meerkat]

The govt is borrowing 2B/week and as been paying 3.8-4.2% for it depending on maturity date and there is no shortage of buyers. The Bank of England is also selling down its gilt purchases at the rate of 650m/wk and again it is mobbed at every auction with sufficient buyers. So the govt could easily borrow the money this is a political decision by those that are in the cabinet now largely being anti HS2 so they can capitalise on it in advance of the general election. I also believe it will shore up the likes TRU and other Northern IPR projects to sell to the red wall seats.

You could easily go out and borrow a few grand to buy a better car. Doesn't mean its sensible.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

You could easily go out and borrow a few grand to buy a better car. Doesn't mean its sensible.

not at 4% nor into an asset that will give 100years value add to the economy.

 

[Meerkat]

not at 4% nor into an asset that will give 100years value add to the economy.

Value to the economy doesn't pay it back, they want cash.
Borrowing too much is robbing future generations - they have to pay it back or refinance it.

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

The following presentation to the PWI (made before the announcement of project delays) has information on the (then) planned pattern of service introduction: (I recommend slide 29.)

https://www.thepwi.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2023-02-22_Old-Oak-Common-Station-HS2_Chris-Ford-Rakesh-Athukattu.pdf

Readers can watch (actually more of a "listen") the presentation here:

And to whack down a just few of the anti HS2 memes that seem to be doing the rounds yet again:

The whole point of HS2 is to move existing WCML intercity services from the WCML to HS2. There simply won't be any WCML services to Euston to "catch" when it's operating. If you rock up at (say) Liverpool or Edinburgh and want an inter-city train to London (or Birmingham, etc.) it will be an HS2 service. There will be not be any other option unless, as now, you zoom, car, walk, drive, fly, coach, etc.

It has always been about capacity - read the 2010 command paper.

Land acquired for HS2 cannot be repurposed for anything else. See Crichel Down Convention

And on some other matters:

Speaking as a London resident for the last forty years or so, changing onto the EL at OOC for Canary Wharf will be much easier that using the tube from Euston - it's one change whereas from Euston you'd be looking at multiple changes - some quite lengthy. Grab a tube map and try it for yourself (or maybe try the TFL Jouney Planner.)

The cost of HS2 "per capita" to the tax payer is not the project capital cost - HS2 is being funded through borrowing, the taxpayer only needs to stump up the interest (the "coupon" for bonds) until the bonds reach their maturity date whence it's hoped the project is generating enough GDP boost (not just fare income) and essentially "pays for itself" as economists like to say. Of course, GDP growth is a lot of funny-money that is hard to directly attribute to any given project. This isn't like selling Concordes!

Scientists (and engineers) tend not to use terms like "billion," because it is used ambiguously - we tend to use SI units for stuff that really matters - kilo/mega/giga/tera/peta etc. Though I don't think I've ever heard anyone talk of "giga-pounds" or "giga-dollars" etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The whole point of HS2 is to move existing WCML intercity services from the WCML to HS2. There simply won't be any WCML services to Euston to "catch" when it's operating. If you rock up at (say) Liverpool or Edinburgh and want an inter-city train to London (or Birmingham, etc.) it will be an HS2 service. There will be not be any other option unless, as now, you zoom, car, walk, drive, fly, coach, etc.

This is incorrect. There will remain some legacy services on the WCML primarily to provide connectivity to places like Milton Keynes (which is likely to be a major city of 500K inhabitants with a significant hinterland by the time HS2 fully opens). The likely pattern in most documentation is roughly that which called at MKC prior to the last timetable change, with more trains calling at Watford and Rugby, plus likely a doubling of the "LNR" Trent Valley semifasts, i.e.:

1 x Euston-Manchester via Stoke (Watford, MKC, Rugby, Stafford, Stoke, Stockport, Manchester Picc)
2 x Euston-Birmingham (one at Watford, MKC, the other at Rugby, Coventry, International, New St)
1 x Euston-North Wales (MKC, Stafford, Crewe, Chester, whatever to Holyhead)

It is possible that either one of the Birminghams or the Manchester will continue to Scotland, I have seen both proposals in official docs over the past few years.

Plus 2 x Euston-Crewe (Watford, MKC, Rugby, all stations to Crewe)

People travelling from Birmingham to Euston etc are not going to be banned from these services.

 

[HSTEd]

Ultimately the endless delays demonstrate that the British industrial-economic system is woefully ill-equipped to deal with the challenges of the next century.

It's going to take over 30 years to build a railway from London to Manchester.
We haven't a hope of getting anywhere meaningful on system-wide decarbonisation or any of our other problems on that basis.

 

[Meerkat]

People travelling from Birmingham to Euston etc are not going to be banned from these services.

Could they be priced off though, or is there no way of doing that which split ticketing can't swerve?