More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Nicholas Lewis]

With interest rates CURRENTLY so low, and more borrowing is still more interest. Refinancing massive debts is normally the point at which the market decides there is too much debt and countries crash.
HS2 can't just take more and more of the public borrowing limit.

It should never have been started but now it has it makes no sense to cripple its ability to maximise its income stream by leaving it as half baked scheme so it can at least contribute to the interest charges on the debt. Then how much extra funding will NR and AWC need to keep the infrastructure and stock going.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So we're still going to be trekking to OOC?

For a period of 3 years or more, possibly extending to a decade.

The HS2 route has to be completed to the Euston throat, though, as you can't have construction at the OOC end after it opens.
That means Euston tunnels, fitting out and maybe even platforms completed in Phase 1.
It's just the terminal structure that has the design problems and delays.

 

[HSTEd]

For a period of 3 years or more, possibly extending to a decade.

The HS2 route has to be completed to the Euston throat, though, as you can't have construction at the OOC end after it opens.
That means Euston tunnels, fitting out and maybe even platforms completed in Phase 1.
It's just the terminal structure that has the design problems and delays.

The Euston rebuild has turned into the biggest debacle of them all hasn't it?

EDIT:

I'm not sure whats going on with Euston honestly, there is clearly a huge space where the station is supposed to be that's already been cleared.

What's stopping them putting in some uncovered platforms and a 1970s Kings Cross style stopgap station building?

Does that simply not fit with their desired aesthetic?
Just Get the thing open, don't really matter what the station looks like

 

[Nottingham59]

The Euston rebuild has turned into the biggest debacle of them all hasn't it?

Yep. Ten miles of tunnel and ten platforms, all to handle just 17 trains per hour which will never be more than half full.

 

[PG]

That means Euston tunnels, fitting out and maybe even platforms completed in Phase 1.

Can you imagine the reporters?:
Behind me you can see the empty platforms that passengers can't use until 2040 - they have travel 7 and a half miles west to wormwood scrubs to get on the new high speed line.

 

[zwk500]

What's stopping them putting in some uncovered platforms and a 1970s Kings Cross style stopgap station building?

Well in theory nothing, but then you'll have to close the station every time it gets a little bit busy. The rebuild of Euston is necessary to deal with the expected passenger interchange numbers.

The HS2 route has to be completed to the Euston throat, though, as you can't have construction at the OOC end after it opens.
That means Euston tunnels, fitting out and maybe even platforms completed in Phase 1.
It's just the terminal structure that has the design problems and delays.

The only hard a fast requirement for OOC to open would be that the TBM drive has finished and the TBM removed (current plan is 2x TBMs both launching from OOC https://www.hs2.org.uk/building-hs2/tunnels/tunnel-drives/euston-tunnel/). OOC platforms will need a safety section for transition to the worksite but as all trains will be turning round in the platforms I can't see any particular reason the tunnels would need to be fitted out beyond five hundred meters or so of the portal.

 

[Nottingham59]

Behind me you can see the empty platforms that passengers can't use until 2040 - they have travel 7 and a half miles west to wormwood scrubs to get on the new high speed line.

Says the BBC reporter, based at Wood Lane/White City which is just 1.5 miles from Old Oak Common.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well in theory nothing, but then you'll have to close the station every time it gets a little bit busy. The rebuild of Euston is necessary to deal with the expected passenger interchange numbers.

oh and you dont think that will happen at Old Oak either

 

[Meerkat]

oh and you dont think that will happen at Old Oak either

Well no, seeing as it is designed for the full HS2 service.

 

[HSTEd]

Well in theory nothing, but then you'll have to close the station every time it gets a little bit busy. The rebuild of Euston is necessary to deal with the expected passenger interchange numbers.

A station that might have to close occasionally remains far superior to a station that never opens at all, which is the alternative.

We are now looking at 2041 at the earliest for a Euston HS2 station, which given the amount of site clearance already done is just absurd.

And given how high tube train station passenger densities have to get before they get closed for safety reasons, forgive me if I am skeptical.

Remember when HS2 were deriding the Greenfield Royal Park station concept as undeliverable?

We've now had two separate station design teams take years and both have failed miserably.

 

[zwk500]

oh and you dont think that will happen at Old Oak either

OOC is being built for the expected passenger numbers, so no. The suggestion was to install a much lower-capacity station at Euston, which would have a problem.

A station that might have to close occasionally remains far superior to a station that never opens at all, which is the alternative.

Of course the critical factor is that we need to know what number 'Occasionally' resolves to, because if it's every friday evening then it's not much better than a station that isn't open.

 

[JonathanH]

We are now looking at 2041 at the earliest for a Euston HS2 station, which given the amount of site clearance already done is just absurd.

2041? Would work actually stop on Euston in that scenario once the current clearance efforts are finished and the site has been made safe, or is construction work actually going to be ongoing for 18 years at a slow rate?

 

[Bletchleyite]

OOC is being built for the expected passenger numbers, so no. The suggestion was to install a much lower-capacity station at Euston, which would have a problem.

I thought the suggestion was to install a cheap, temporary, mostly outdoor station, not a lower-capacity one.

 

[zwk500]

I thought the suggestion was to install a cheap, temporary, mostly outdoor station, not a lower-capacity one.

Lower Passenger capacity. If each train is dumping 800-1,000 people out you need time or space to get them through the station before the next train arrives. A portacabin at the buffers doesn't do that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Lower Passenger capacity. If each train is dumping 800-1,000 people out you need time or space to get them through the station before the next train arrives. A portacabin at the buffers doesn't do that.

They don't have to go in the portakabin.

 

[HSTEd]

Of course the critical factor is that we need to know what number 'Occasionally' resolves to, because if it's every friday evening then it's not much better than a station that isn't open.

I strongly disagree.

Even in that case, a railway that functions six and a half days a week is clearly superior to one that doesn't function at all.

Meanwhile HS2 capacity representing tens of billions of pounds of expenditure will be left idle.......

2041? Would work actually stop on Euston in that scenario once the current clearance efforts are finished and the site has been made safe, or is construction work actually going to be ongoing for 18 years at a slow rate?

Given that the purpose of the delay is to come up with a workable design for the station, I very much doubt any significant additional work will be undertaken.

 

[zwk500]

I strongly disagree.

A railway that functions six and a half days a week is clearly superior to one that doesn't function at all.

A railway that doesn't function when people want to travel is not a functioning railway, to me.

They don't have to go in the portakabin.

With 800-1,000 passengers max per train, and 400m trains, you will want multiple entrances and exits to each platform island (especially if you don't want to introduce additional operational restrictions on trains sharing islands) and that basically necessitates a mid-platform concourse over or under the tracks. You will also need sufficient gateline for the expected passenger load alongside emergency evacuation requirements.

Could a cheaper station have been/be designed? Almost certainly. Would it look radically different in structure and concept? probably not.

 

[Bald Rick]

Indeed, the Wolves/Birmingham/Wales services will remain. Though they'll probably run at 110mph and stop more

And one Manchester per hour.

Yes these will all still be there, WCML to Euston. Don’t expect them to be cheaper than via HS2 though.

The Euston rebuild has turned into the biggest debacle of them all hasn't it?

Why do you say that? They were very busy today - piling, excavating, and putting in the single biggest rebar cage for a deep pile I have ever seen!

What's stopping them putting in some uncovered platforms and a 1970s Kings Cross style stopgap station building?

where, exactly? There is an enormous deep hole next to the station.

 

[NoRoute]

As the HS2 delays mount up, it does rather call into question many of the arguments made against improvements and additions to the existing network.

The time-frame for completion is now so far in the future that it begs the question what value HS2 will provide for much of the North and Midlands for the next couple of decades, other than as a job creation scheme for the construction and rail industry.

It appears inconceivable that it won't be necessary to make significant improvements to the existing rail network within that same time period, is the East Midlands really expected to see minimal improvements over the next circa 20 years until the Eastern Leg gets built. Presumably before which point the existing network will need significant renewal and upgrading anyway.

 

[HSTEd]

Why do you say that? They were very busy today - piling, excavating, and putting in the single biggest rebar cage for a deep pile I have ever seen!

And despite this supposed progress, the project is now being put back by years in an attempt to design an "affordable" station. Station now to be delivered "alongside" Crewe-Manchester - which means 2041 at the earliest.

Which strongly suggests the existing plan has been revealed to be unworkable. Just like the last one that cost over £100m and achieved nothing.

 

[D365]

It appears inconceivable that it won't be necessary to make significant improvements to the existing rail network within that same time period, is the East Midlands really expected to see minimal improvements over the next circa 20 years until the Eastern Leg gets built.

"Status quo" comes to mind.

 

[Bald Rick]

And despite this supposed progress, the project is now being put back by years in an attempt to design an "affordable" station. Station now to be delivered "alongside" Crewe-Manchester - which means 2041 at the earliest.

Which strongly suggests the existing plan has been revealed to be unworkable. Just like the last one that cost over £100m and achieved nothing.

Youre making an awful lot of assumptions there.

 

[JonathanH]

And despite this supposed progress, the project is now being put back by years in an attempt to design an "affordable" station. Station now to be delivered "alongside" Crewe-Manchester - which means 2041 at the earliest.

I dont quite understand. If they are putting in foundations for something at Euston rather than just doing clearance work, are you suggesting it is all going to have to be dug up again when there is a new plan?

 

[Xavi]

There’s been a lot of nonsense in the media since yesterday’s announcement. Time for some reality.

Euston will be opened during the of build of Phase 2a, not at the end of Phase 2b West. This is very minor reprogramming and not the 10-year delay peddled in the DT, Mail and BBC. Good to announce this modest delay now - a lesson from Crossrail.

In Spring 2023, the final Euston design will be submitted to Borough of Camden as part of the Schedule 17 process.

The Phase 2a ‘2-year delay’ is actually optimisation of design and procurement. It’s quite possible the better approach (again embracing lessons learned from Crossrail and Phase 1) will see the construction period reduced and 2a completed by 2034.

Phase 2b East development is also continuing.

So not the doom portrayed by the media (and some notable commentators). However, Treasury is calling the tunes and insisting there will be no extra cash to reflect inflation, hence the reprogramming.

Also, worth noting construction output prices have increased by 36% since 2015, the date of the prices always quoted by the media. Over the same period government spending is up 40%.

 

[HSTEd]

There’s been a lot of nonsense in the media since yesterday’s announcement. Time for some reality.

Euston will be opened during the of build of Phase 2a, not at the end of Phase 2b West.

Where do you get this from?

The ministerial statement says

At the same time, the government will take the time to ensure an affordable and deliverable design at Euston, with a view to delivering the station alongside high-speed infrastructure to Manchester, while the High Speed Rail (Crewe-Manchester) Bill continues through Parliament.

I don't think that is compatible with your reading of the situation.

If it was to be opened during the build of Phase 2a, it would say that, not reference "high speed infrastructure to Manchester".

 

[matacaster]

One of (the few) occasions that I agree with Mayor Khan in London is saying that delaying the completion of Euston but running full HS2 services to Old Oak is going to make the Elizabeth there unacceptable, quoted here:


Quite so. One of the first issues with the EL was morning passengers at Acton unable to get in. Recent (even yesterday afternoon) experience is that this is now a well-used corridor, with substantial standing passengers already. How the bulk of the WCML Euston passengers, from Birmingham/Liverpool/Manchester/Glasgow etc, apparently long term now, are going to fit, even with the EL Paddington terminators extended out there, seems just impractical. Further, The arriving HS2 passengers are not going to be a steady stream, but will come in spurts with the arrivals.

It's also the stupidity we have seen previously, huge expenditure on a high-speed line being fully countermanded by a major issue at the terminus.

You poor Londoners! The Elizabeth line provided masses of extra capacity. Let the Elizabeth line take the HS2 traffic and some of the overcrowding from old tube provision. Those who cannot be accommodated how they used to on the tube. Up north, we rarely get the choice between (tube) and new & fast (EL).

Indeed it is difficult. However I think "alongside" means side-by-side, at the same time, so

– Phase 1 OOC - Birmingham Curzon Street to be delivered "early 2030s" (no change)

– What's happening with the Handsacre link to the WCML is unclear (though I would think it's still part of Phase 1, despite the change in wording in the progress update)

– Phase 2a Brum to Crewe is being "replanned" and will certainly be delayed beyond 2033

– Phase 2b/Manchester, HS2 East/the Midlands leg, and Euston to be delivered after 2040, the last one as previously rumoured.

Really it means this government is committing to OOC-Curzon Street, and the next government will decide whether to proceed, if at all, with the rest of it.



Public investment delivers economic growth which pays for the public investment through higher tax returns. For whatever reason, governments since 2010 have turned away from this, while at the same time making private investment harder.

Your last point can only be true if you make public investment in the right projects. Simply investing randomly is futile. There are plenty of examples of ploughing public money into lost causes (eg Scottish ferries), British Leyland

Yes these will all still be there, WCML to Euston. Don’t expect them to be cheaper than via HS2 though.



Why do you say that? They were very busy today - piling, excavating, and putting in the single biggest rebar cage for a deep pile I have ever seen!



where, exactly? There is an enormous deep hole next to the station.

Since only a proportion of people want to go all the way to Euston, having the train split at OOC and charging a significant premium to actually go all the way to Euston would limit the size of Euston HS2 station needed if only half the set was to travel on to Euston.

 

[zwk500]

Since only a proportion of people want to go all the way to Euston, having the train split at OOC and charging a significant premium to actually go all the way to Euston would limit the size of Euston HS2 station needed if only half the set was to travel on to Euston.

And if more than 50% want to travel to Euston (as is likely to be the case)? You've introduced a vast amount of operational complexity and risk and cost for little benefit as you'll still need the same number of platforms but only 200m long. You may need more drivers though, unless you manage the platforms very carefully to allow the sets to be stepped up.

 

[tomuk]

Says the BBC reporter, based at Wood Lane/White City which is just 1.5 miles from Old Oak Common.

What BBC reporters based at Wood Lane? The BBC moved out years ago they are based at Broadcasting House. They would need to wander down Regent St to use the Hannover Square entrance to EL to get to OOC.

 

[Xavi]

Where do you get this from?

The ministerial statement says

I don't think that is compatible with your reading of the situation.

If it was to be opened during the build of Phase 2a, it would say that, not reference "high speed infrastructure to Manchester".

You need to read the whole sentence which also says ‘while the High Speed Rail (Crewe-Manchester) Bill continues through Parliament’ in respect of when Euston is delivered.

You can read a February 2023 press release on the HS2 website stating that the Euston design completes in spring 2023. This is the design of the ‘affordable and deliverable’ solution.

From my sources, the most likely opening date for Euston is 2032.

 

[Tetchytyke]

We are now looking at 2041 at the earliest for a Euston HS2 station, which given the amount of site clearance already done is just absurd.

And given how high tube train station passenger densities have to get before they get closed for safety reasons, forgive me if I am skeptical.

When St Pancras was being redeveloped they put the MML in a temporary outdoor station with a Portakabin. I can’t foresee any situation where a temporary Euston station couldn’t cope. And that’s even if we take HS2’s damp-finger-in-the-air passenger numbers at face value.

As for Euston, the Bree Louise pub shut down *five years ago* for HS2 and it could be another 10-15 years till there’s a Euston HS2 station? It’s madness. And people say Lord Berkeley is the wrong one!

Still, the Tory-donating construction magnates are doing well out of it.