More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Euston-Glasgows are given 66m to reach Curborough Jn near MP 118, which is about 2 miles short of the future Handsacre Jn.
So Handsacre would be about 67m.
(on a good day on a 390 you can almost cross the River Tame bridge (around MP 112) from Euston in an hour).

The same distance (120 miles, 193 km) on HS2 at 300 km/h would be something like 38m - plus the OOC stop.
So maybe 24m faster than today for anywhere north of Handsacre - shorter from OOC.
Crewe gives you about another 6m, or 30m overall.

 

[The Ham]

Whilst I agree there will be a catering offer, Manchester will be around 70mins post Phase 2b, and 90 post Phase 2a. It’s only around 126 now!

Yes I realised I'd given the current time as I sat at my desk at work!!!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The Euston-Glasgows are given 66m to reach Curborough Jn near MP 118, which is about 2 miles short of the future Handsacre Jn.
So Handsacre would be about 67m.
(on a good day on a 390 you can almost cross the River Tame bridge (around MP 112) from Euston in an hour).

The same distance (120 miles, 193 km) on HS2 at 300 km/h would be something like 38m - plus the OOC stop.
So maybe 24m faster than today for anywhere north of Handsacre - shorter from OOC.
Crewe gives you about another 6m, or 30m overall.

reasonable saving to effect transfer to HS2 but main shift will be by eliminating the fastest pendo services of today i suspect

 

[The Ham]

reasonable saving to effect transfer to HS2 but main shift will be by eliminating the fastest pendo services of today i suspect

Indeed the main shift will be from existing services, however given that Virgin had been eroding air travel then an extra 30 minutes less on the train would attract yet more people.

Given that London/Central Belt is a significant amount of our domestic air travel, it's not unreasonable to assume that with faster journey times that could reduce.

How much by is (sort of) unknown (yes we have models, however the actual may be more/less depending of future events), however with the right policies it's not unreasonable that there could be a significant percentage of this air corridor (in terms of rail travel less so).

 

[Bald Rick]

That’s right - reducing London - Glasgow by 30-40 mins to sub 4hours will take a decent slice of the air market.

AIUI, rail now has about half the London - Edinburgh market and about 30% London - Glasgow.
Back in 2005 that was 20% / 10% respectively.

I‘d expect that a sub 4h journey time and 2 trains an hour would lift the London - Glasgow rail share to at least 50%.

 

[Greybeard33]

I‘d expect that a sub 4h journey time and 2 trains an hour would lift the London - Glasgow rail share to at least 50%.

But 2tph London - Glasgow requires both Euston and the Golborne Link (or replacement). By the time that happens (if ever) there will likely be zero emission electric aircraft flying between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

But 2tph London - Glasgow requires both Euston and the Golborne Link (or replacement). By the time that happens (if ever) there will likely be zero emission electric aircraft flying between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh!

Maybe maybe not there is a heck of a long way to go to get the energy density of kerosene in some alternative net zero fuel alternative. What we do know is an electric train can deliver net zero now (less all the embodied carbon to build the infrastructure).

 

[L+Y]

This has no doubt been discussed before so my apologies for restating the question: but what is the proposed breakdown of those 18tph out of Euston?

 

[jfowkes]

But 2tph London - Glasgow requires both Euston and the Golborne Link (or replacement). By the time that happens (if ever) there will likely be zero emission electric aircraft flying between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh!

I am reasonably confident in saying: no, there won't be. Even if battery electric aircraft have the range by then, they won't have enough passenger capacity, you'd need a flight every quarter hour or something silly. Hydrogen aircraft might work, but they're even further away than viable battery aircraft.
Zero emission aircraft are hard.

 

[Bald Rick]

By the time that happens (if ever) there will likely be zero emission electric aircraft flying between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh!

Not with sufficient capacity to be any help in that market.

Besides, the choice of rail or air is, believe it or not, rarely made due to emissions.

 

[greyman42]

Besides, the choice of rail or air is, believe it or not, rarely made due to emissions.

Correct. Most people could not care less about emissions.

 

[matacaster]

But 2tph London - Glasgow requires both Euston and the Golborne Link (or replacement). By the time that happens (if ever) there will likely be zero emission electric aircraft flying between London and Glasgow/Edinburgh!

Range anxiety in relation to electric aircraft may be a serious problem for some people.

 

[thaitransit]

I really don't get the HS2 project. Wouldn't be far cheaper to curve ease and Quad track the existing routes to better seperate express and stopping trains?

From what I understand the existing routes are very fast with 200kph running is there really enough time saving here to build an entire new route when upgrading existing might give 220kph to 250kph running speed?

200kph running is something we can only dream about in Queensland where max speed is 160kph and most routes struggle to get above 100kph! There are some where 30kph is the best you get on a single track extremely congested main line due to endless tight curves and 1: 40 grades!

 

[SynthD]

No, this project was chosen for being better value for money and far greater benefits, such as affecting Glasgow flights mentioned above.

 

[Trainbike46]

I really don't get the HS2 project. Wouldn't be far cheaper to curve ease and Quad track the existing routes to better seperate express and stopping trains?

In short, no, especially given how much build up areas / constrained sites are along the WCML

 

[thaitransit]

In short, no, especially given how much build up areas / constrained sites are along the WCML

Whenever curve easing has been carried out in Queensland they just used compulsory acquisition to obtain the necessary land generally farmland or undeveloped land.

Also another option was to bypass difficult sections (eg too built up or dead end station) and building a new station for that town 5 or 10 km outside in a greenfields area normally then linked by a railbus service back to town centre. Eg Gympie and Maryborough. Totally bypassed but still serviced.

 

[swt_passenger]

I really don't get the HS2 project. Wouldn't be far cheaper to curve ease and Quad track the existing routes to better seperate express and stopping trains?

From what I understand the existing routes are very fast with 200kph running is there really enough time saving here to build an entire new route when upgrading existing might give 220kph to 250kph running speed?

The vast majority of Euston to the northwest is already 4 tracked, if you include the pair taking a detour via Northampton. HS2 could be considered as providing the 6 tracking.

 

[thaitransit]

The vast majority of Euston to the northwest is already 4 tracked, if you include the pair taking a detour via Northampton. HS2 could be considered as providing the 6 tracking.

Wow. Yet that isn't enough capacity! Normally a double track line can handle between 24 and 30 trains per hour per direction. Given its already Quad track then that would indicate around 60 trains per hour per direction! This is a massive capacity.

I would assume the layout is Track 1 and 4 is for stopping all stations trains and very heavy freight trains eg coal trains, ore trains etc. Tracks 2 and 3 are bi directional express tracks used mainly by fast passenger trains and fast container trains. Also the middle tracks can be used for all stopping trains to overtake slow coal trains that struggle on the grades.

In Queensland Quad track is only found in the inner city of Brisbane. Regional lines are mostly thousands km of single track with crossing loops, except for central Queensland with double track for about 500km.

 

[zwk500]

Whenever curve easing has been carried out in Queensland they just used compulsory acquisition to obtain the necessary land generally farmland or undeveloped land.

Compulsory purchase is very, very expensive in the UK. The land that would need to be acquired between London and Birmingham is not undeveloped land or farmland but people's houses. Hence why HS2 is tunnelling under London.

Wow. Yet that isn't enough capacity! Normally a double track line can handle between 24 and 30 trains per hour per direction. Given its already Quad track then that would indicate around 60 trains per hour per direction! This is a massive capacity.

It's somewhat more complicated because of how the timetable works, but the issue is we have a mix of 3 traffics on 2 pairs of line: High-speed intercity, interurban commuter, and freight. The WCML timetable has been refined as far as is possible but at some point there is a cap on the physical number of trains you can fit down a line while still serving the stations. Hs2 will allow the high-speed IC trains to be removed, allowing more of the limited-stop commuter trains to use the fast lines and clearing the graph up for the freight.

I would assume the layout is Track 1 and 4 is for stopping all stations trains and very heavy freight trains eg coal trains, ore trains etc. Tracks 2 and 3 are bi directional express tracks used mainly by fast passenger trains and fast container trains. Also the middle tracks can be used for all stopping trains to overtake slow coal trains that struggle on the grades.

The WCML between London and Rugby is paired by use, so in effect Tracks 1 and 2 are for Northbound and Southbound express traffic and tracks 3 and 4 are for stopping traffic and Freight. Transfer between the fast and slow tracks is restricted to avoid the performance issues of having to make a conflicting crossing. There are regular junctions up the line that permit crossing from one pair of tracks to another.
North of Rugby the WCML reverts to the paired by direction arrangement you describe (Tracks 1 and 4 for slow trains, 2/3 for fast trains) until Colwich, where there is a brief section of 2-track before it goes to 1/2 = slow and 3/4 = fast just south of Stafford until Crewe (from Colwich to Manchester there is also a more direct 2-track line but that has to share space with local stopping trains).

 

[Bald Rick]

Wouldn't be far cheaper to curve ease and Quad track the existing routes to better seperate express and stopping trains?

Not at all. The line is essentially 6 track from Euston to Watford, and 4 track from Watford to Crewe (with two short sections that are 3 / 2 track). Much of the line is through urban areas where adding another pair of tracks would be fraught with difficulty.

Normally a double track line can handle between 24 and 30 trains per hour per direction.

If every train is doing exactly the same thing - speed, acceleration/ braking, stopping pattern. Otherwise not. And the West Coast Line has a whole host of different types of traffic on it.

I would assume the layout is Track 1 and 4 is for stopping all stations trains and very heavy freight trains eg coal trains, ore trains etc. Tracks 2 and 3 are bi directional express tracks used mainly by fast passenger trains and fast container trains. Also the middle tracks can be used for all stopping trains to overtake slow coal trains that struggle on the grades.

South of Rugby it is paired by use; 1 pair of line reserved for long distance passenger trains doing 110/125 mph generally with few stops, the other pair for trains doing 60-100mph with a variety of stopping patterns, including freight. Most of the freight is container trains, there is some bulk aggregates, and no coal.

 

[Fazaar1889]

Not sure where else to post this, but at what time point in the project timeline do you guys expect the tracks to start being laid?

Sorry if this is a silly question, I haven't followed a major railway project before.

 

[The Planner]

Not sure where else to post this, but at what time point in the project timeline do you guys expect the tracks to start being laid?

Sorry if this is a silly question, I haven't followed a major railway project before.

At least 3 years.

 

[eldomtom2]

Besides, the choice of rail or air is, believe it or not, rarely made due to emissions.

Correct. Most people could not care less about emissions.

Which is why there's increasing demand for things like carbon taxes...

 

[Bald Rick]

Which is why there's increasing demand for things like carbon taxes...

Is there? What evidence is there for increasing demand for them?

 

[eldomtom2]

Is there? What evidence is there for increasing demand for them?

New Global Poll Shows Growing Public Support for a Carbon Tax

NEw global poll shows increased public support for a carbon tax on the types of energy that most cause climate change

globescan.com

With the COP26 climate summit under way in Glasgow this week, a new global poll conducted for the BBC World Service shows increased public support for a carbon tax on the types of energy that most cause climate change, such as coal and oil/petrol, to encourage individuals and businesses to use less of these.

The poll of 31 countries and territories was conducted by GlobeScan in June and July 2021. In total, more than 30,000 people were surveyed about their attitudes toward addressing climate change through a carbon tax. Key findings include the following:

• An average of 62 percent of people globally are in favour of a carbon tax while one-third (33%) are opposed to raising taxes to encourage decreased use.
• In 28 of the 31 countries and territories polled, a majority of people support raising taxes on climate change-causing types of energy. Only in Germany (51% opposed) and Saudi Arabia (50% opposed) are half or more respondents opposed to a carbon tax.
• Support for a carbon tax has increased from 52 percent in 2015 to 62 percent in 2021, after holding steady between 2007 and 2015, across the same 17 countries tracked since 2007.
• Support for a carbon tax has grown substantially (more than 5 percentage points) in ten out of 16 countries tracked, including large emitters China (up from 77% in 2015 to 83% in 2021) and the USA (up from 39% in 2015 to 56% in 2021). People in China are the most in favour out of all countries surveyed.

 

[Bald Rick]

New Global Poll Shows Growing Public Support for a Carbon Tax

NEw global poll shows increased public support for a carbon tax on the types of energy that most cause climate change

globescan.com

I thought you meant more recently than 2 years ago.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Polls are so reliable and not written in a way to elicit the answers desired…

 

[eldomtom2]

I thought you meant more recently than 2 years ago.

I'd consider two years pretty recent, and I'm not sure why the precise date matters anyway.

 

[Bald Rick]

I'd consider two years pretty recent, and I'm not sure why the precise date matters anyway.

yep, fair enough. Apologies, being a bit scratchy today due to the summer weather!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Not sure where else to post this, but at what time point in the project timeline do you guys expect the tracks to start being laid?
Sorry if this is a silly question, I haven't followed a major railway project before.

The contracts for the railway system (track, signalling, electrification, communications) haven't been let yet, apart for some complex track work (S&C).
There isn't a published timeline or logistics plan, but it could be 2026/27 before they start.
It will be slab track throughout, so that will be the starting point.
Cost will be really important in the current climate.