North Wales Main Line Electrification

[cle]

Getting to Llandudno - and the other way getting to Warrington (and doing Halton) would be a useful step. Holyhead less so, but worth considering once that is done.

That could cover the Manchester, Liverpool (anticipated) - and London-Chester terminators. Plus any shuttles, or anything to Birmingham via that route.

 

[adamedwards]

if you get to Llandudno then surely going on to Holyhead makes sense or else you end up with a diesel shuttle along the Snowdonia Coast which will not look good. I'm assuming there isn't a magic bimode local train by then (and assuming the scheme actually happens, given this lot failed to do Windermere!)

 

[Caaardiff]

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/welsh-transport-minister-launches-furious-27842651

 

[Meerkat]

I was rather surprised to see this one on the list. Warrington and Crewe to Wrexham would be good though. Wonder whether Runcorn is included (assuming any development work was consulted at all, rather than this line counting as welsh and northern for double bubble levelling up points)

 

[cle]

I was rather surprised to see this one on the list. Warrington and Crewe to Wrexham would be good though. Wonder whether Runcorn is included (assuming any development work was consulted at all, rather than this line counting as welsh and northern for double bubble levelling up points)

If I were them I'd be framing it as a sop to Mancs / NW-ers as well. "Trundle to Chester and North Wales a bit quicker!"

Cardiff to Swansea would be better

I don't agree actually. It's currently 1tph to Paddington. Yes it's longer, and could in theory have more (2tph Padd, a Bristol EMU) - but actually North Wales connects to a few different electric routes in many directions. But the key markets of Manchester, Liverpool and London, plus the Crewe hub.

Wires don't even get to Bristol, conversely.

if you get to Llandudno then surely going on to Holyhead makes sense or else you end up with a diesel shuttle along the Snowdonia Coast which will not look good. I'm assuming there isn't a magic bimode local train by then (and assuming the scheme actually happens, given this lot failed to do Windermere!)

I think eventually it would make sense. And Bangor is far more important itself than Holyhead. But thinking realistic and staged. Maybe Bangor is stage 2, and Holyhead 3 - Conwy Valley would never be done, mind.

 

[Rhydgaled]

What benefit will electrification bring to the line? Aside from Avanti's service, there will be no benefit to TFW services given the huge order for 197's that are being introduced. Improvements to capacity on the line would be more welcome than electrification.

Given the announcement of electrification to Hull, then a batch of 7-car class 397s for TPE to provide most TPE services (including a Bangor-Hull service replacing the current Llandudno-Manchester which of course is planned to become Bangor-Manchester) could be an option.

Electrification of Cardiff - Swansea would make more sense

There is probably a stronger case for Cardiff-Swansea, but that doesn't necessarily mean it makes more sense as the next electrification scheme for Wales. The reason I say that is that Cardiff-Bridgend (via Pontyclun) is fairly congested and this will only get worse with the new stations planned and hopefully additional services to/from Maesteg. There could therefore be something to be said for doing some other upgrades on this stretch (such as 4-tracking or at least building a 4-track section through the new Miskin station (with platforms on the slow/releif/loop lines only so that fast trains can overtake stoppers there)) before electrification.

Or more importantly, will it actually happen? Or is it just Tory spin?

They might start on it, then cancel/pause/whatever just like HS2 and GWEP.

Electrification from Crewe to Chester and reopening of the line from Menai Bridge to Afon Wen and branches to Llanberis and Bethesda would arguably be more useful than full electrification to Holyhead immediately, in the absence of an electrific fleet to operate TfW services, unless they want to take 379s or 350/2s etc. Additional services to Llanberis, Pwllheli and Machynlleth would provide additional capacity on the main line as far as Bangor.

It didn't sound like any of Sunak's new projects would happen 'immediately' anyway - so even if Holyhead is the aim (and it doesn't get cancelled between now and then) there's plenty of time for other things to happen first. That said, I really think somebody needs to put the idea of reopening the southern part of the line between Menai Bridge and Afon Wen to bed once and for all. Unless the only services on the reopenned line would be Pwllheli-Bangor (possibly continuing to somewhere else in North Wales, such as Llandudno) it just seems a bit pointless. Any service which aims to link Bangor and Machynlleth would be heading in the wrong direction for over 5 miles to join the Cambrian Coast Line about 8 to 9 miles west of Porthmadog (which, it seems to me, is where you would want to be aiming for). If you're going to try and link Bangor and Machynlleth by rail, at least do it properly; forget reopenning Afon Wen and build a new alignment between Bryncir and somewhere around Porthmadog to give the A487 a run for its money.

I'm all for rail to new destinations, but what would be the point of branches to Llanberis and Bethesda? Both would be happy with a decent bus service to Caernarfon / Bangor.

Not sure about Bethesda, but I've heard some horrendous reports of car infestations around Snowdon. Being able to book through rail tickets to Llanberis might help encourage tourists to leave their cars at home. I guess through tickets with the buses, plus maybe some bus priority measures if necessary (not sure whether they get delayed by all the car traffic) might be sufficient.

Caernarfon absolutely, but there's no need to go beyond.

Caernarfon to Machynlleth is still rather a long haul on a bus; yes you could change onto the train at Porthmadog but then that's two bus-rail changes (one at Caernarfon and one at Porthmadog) if coming from Bangor. A train from Bangor to Porthmadog via Afon Wen is pointless in my view because it's unlikely to be faster than the bus, but don't you think a train with a new alignment to Porthmadog coupled with a limited-stop run down the Cambrian Coast (with additional passing loops and maybe some targeted linespeed upgrades) could be quite transformational to the attractiveness of public transport?

Plenty of places 197s would be useful. First job probably to bin off the knackered old 153s kept for the Heart of Wales line and replace with 2-car 197s. Next job to scrap the junk that is the 230 and do the same there.

One of the few things I would have said the 197s are well-suited for in their current form was Wrexham-Bidston, but apparently they are 'slippery' and can't cope well with the stop-start nature of the route (despite the quick acceleration and wide doors otherwise being ideal for services with frequent stops). They really are a worthless type. Send them back to CAF and have them rebuilt as battery EMUs for Northern (or for the south Wales metro, cascading FLIRTs and tram-trains around to provide the tram-trains for more on-street sections)

 

[Bletchleyite]

One of the few things I would have said the 197s are well-suited for in their current form was Wrexham-Bidston, but apparently they are 'slippery' and can't cope well with the stop-start nature of the route (despite the quick acceleration and wide doors otherwise being ideal for services with frequent stops). They really are a worthless type. Send them back to CAF and have them rebuilt as battery EMUs for Northern (or for the south Wales metro, cascading FLIRTs and tram-trains around to provide the tram-trains for more on-street sections)

I find this situation utterly bizarre as Northern, having realised what 195s are good at, are using them very successfully on east Manchester local services, directly replacing Pacers (which they massively outperform).

 

[BrianW]

Bold. That's exactly what is it.

Will it happen? If NR was devolved in Wales, I'd say yes. Without devolution, I'm doubtful

Cardiff to Swansea would be better

Wrexham, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd West, Aberconwy and Ynys Mon are all Conservative seats with low majorities, some of them won as Welsh Wall seats.
That might be thought by some to have some part in decision-making- possibly ...

 

[Chester1]

Wrexham, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd West, Aberconwy and Ynys Mon are all Conservative seats with low majorities, some of them won as Welsh Wall seats.
That might be thought by some to have some part in decision-making- possibly ...

Its more complicated than that because of the new boundaries for the next general election but as I stated in #75 the case for North Wales electrification is electoral, the case for South Wales electrification is economic.

 

[Mikey C]

While I am massively cynical about this announcement, it actually makes a lot of sense politically.

The area of North Wales covered has strong links with the North of England, and there's an element of resentment that the Welsh Government is only interesting in Cardiff and south Wales, so bypassing them is a clever move.

 

[BrianW]

Its more complicated than that because of the new boundaries for the next general election but as I stated in #75 the case for North Wales electrification is electoral, the case for South Wales electrification is economic.

I agree with you. There have been a lot of postings to catch up on and give credit to since Rishi's giveaway electioneering.

While I am massively cynical about this announcement, it actually makes a lot of sense politically.

The area of North Wales covered has strong links with the North of England, and there's an element of resentment that the Welsh Government is only interesting in Cardiff and south Wales, so bypassing them is a clever move.

Agreeing with you on that too!

 

[Chester1]

While I am massively cynical about this announcement, it actually makes a lot of sense politically.

The area of North Wales covered has strong links with the North of England, and there's an element of resentment that the Welsh Government is only interesting in Cardiff and south Wales, so bypassing them is a clever move.

It also blunts the demands for Wales to be given Barnet formula money for HS2. £1bn+ is huge when you consider Wales has about the same population as Greater Manchester.

I guess one benefit would be that London - Holyhead could run via HS2. Drop the limited Shrewsbury and Wrexham services and the entire Avanti network could be diverted onto HS2.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I guess one benefit would be that London - Holyhead could run via HS2. Drop the limited Shrewsbury and Wrexham services and the entire Avanti network could be diverted onto HS2.

There's still the demand for a fast Birmingham service to serve Watford, MK and Rugby, so that could be extended instead and continue using 805s. You could get LNR to operate it if you want to be a real "Avanti = HS2" purist, though.

 

[Chester1]

There's still the demand for a fast Birmingham service to serve Watford, MK and Rugby, so that could be extended instead and continue using 805s. You could get LNR to operate it if you want to be a real "Avanti = HS2" purist, though.

As things stand LNR is going to get 2 and a bit Avanti services and require a microfleet of 125mph rolling stock. It would be easier to ditch Shrewsbury and Wrexham and transfer the Avanti services to HS2. LNR could run a limited stop hourly service between London and Birmingham using 110mph stock, in addition to three HS2 services.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As things stand LNR is going to get 2 and a bit Avanti services and require a microfleet of 125mph rolling stock. It would be easier to ditch Shrewsbury and Wrexham and transfer the Avanti services to HS2. LNR could run a limited stop hourly service between London and Birmingham using 110mph stock, in addition to three HS2 services.

LNR could make good use of 125mph stock (e.g. the 807s) for things like a faster Northampton service. The 805s and 807s would be quite a good fit. Are there enough 807s to run the Trent local service for example?

 

[Meerkat]

If Crewe needs doing anyway might they still put in 400m platforms? Would mean that 6 Euston platforms could reach more places - so a split of 400m sending 200m through Chester to Wrexham or North Wales/Holyhead and 200m to Liverpool or up the WCML

 

[HSTEd]

It's about 190km or so to Handsacre from Euston.
At 320kph (the normal operational speed of HS2) it would take 36 minutes to complete that run, assuming instant acceleration.
At 250kph (the top speed of the fastest electrodiesel available, the Talgo 250), it would take 45 minutes.

Rather a shame, if it was two or three minutes you could probably risk it, but it does seem like electrification is essential.

 

[LLivery]

I welcome the proposal, it is one route I think should be a priority, just think they should complete Swansea as promised first. The fact they haven't done that leaves many people cynical about any proposal.

Wrexham, Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd West, Aberconwy and Ynys Mon are all Conservative seats with low majorities, some of them won as Welsh Wall seats.
That might be thought by some to have some part in decision-making- possibly ...

Makes sense, that, though if they keep Delyn after that scandal I'll be amazed

While I am massively cynical about this announcement, it actually makes a lot of sense politically.

The area of North Wales covered has strong links with the North of England, and there's an element of resentment that the Welsh Government is only interesting in Cardiff and south Wales, so bypassing them is a clever move.

This does make sense too. But whether people will believe it is another story.

It also blunts the demands for Wales to be given Barnet formula money for HS2. £1bn+ is huge when you consider Wales has about the same population as Greater Manchester.

I guess one benefit would be that London - Holyhead could run via HS2. Drop the limited Shrewsbury and Wrexham services and the entire Avanti network could be diverted onto HS2.

Doesn't do that well for the argument that they're losing out on funding though. Complaints I keep coming across are about N-S Welsh links, not about getting to London - how it's always framed.

 

[Krokodil]

Aside from Avanti's service, there will be no benefit to TFW services given the huge order for 197's that are being introduced.

By the time that any copper actually gets strung the West Wales 153s will be life-expired. Electrifying the Manchester, Crewe and Liverpool services will free up 6-12 197s (depending upon what the timetable review decides) to replace them. Holyhead-Birmingham/Cardiff services would remain diesel anyway.

In reality, the replacement of the replacement of the 197s will probably be in service before any wiring actually happens.

I'm all for rail to new destinations, but what would be the point of branches to Llanberis and Bethesda? Both would be happy with a decent bus service to Caernarfon / Bangor.

Llanberis would attract a decent amount of tourist traffic, but I don't see that happening in my lifetime (and I've no plans to go anywhere soon).

Next job to scrap the junk that is the 230 and do the same there.

777s will be running on batteries to Wrexham long before any wiring happens.

I was rather surprised to see this one on the list.

When you consider the politics it's less surprising.

I don't agree actually. It's currently 1tph to Paddington. Yes it's longer, and could in theory have more (2tph Padd, a Bristol EMU)

Swanline could go to 756 operation, some 231s could be converted to bimodes for the Maestegs. Then there's the traffic out of Margam Knuckle Yard.

Wires don't even get to Bristol, conversely.

Isn't Bristol also on the crayon wishlist?

Conwy Valley would never be done, mind.

While it might seem mad, Junction to Llanrwst loop would be very easy to do as a cheap add-on to the wiring on the coast. Batteries on to Blaenau from there.

directly replacing Pacers (which they massively outperform).

Not a difficult ask.

 

[Bletchleyite]

777s will be running on batteries to Wrexham long before any wiring happens.

I think it's questionable whether they will. To Shotton it's basically a slightly less busy branch of Merseyrail (maybe a bit comparable to the Headbolt-Wigan line) and could be made busier by way of housing development around extra stations. Beyond Shotton to Wrexham it's a country branch line with almost no population anywhere near it, more similar to a Cornish branch without the tourists.

I would expect Merseyrail to be extended onto it at some point, but I suspect it'll be by moving the "buffer stops" to either Neston or Shotton, in which case you'll still need DMUs for the rest of it. Though at a push I suppose Merseyrail might agree to go to Wrexham hourly with all others turning at Neston or Shotton.

Not a difficult ask.

Pacers and 150s performed similarly - Pacers were less powerful but also lighter. On east Manchester stopping services they're quite happily achieving 150 schedules, anyway.

 

[Mikey C]

Doesn't do that well for the argument that they're losing out on funding though. Complaints I keep coming across are about N-S Welsh links, not about getting to London - how it's always framed.

In reality, how many people in North Wales (as opposed to politicians), especially in the eastern part where a lot of the population have their roots in NW England, care that much about connections to South Wales?

Geography means that North and South Wales have always been very separate.

 

[Krokodil]

I think it's questionable whether they will.

More questionable than the possibility that some copper knitting will be strung up on the North Wales Coast sooner?

TfW and Merseytravel are at least seriously considering the battery option for the line, with the hope that if successful they might have some units to play with in five years.

The odds of 197s being freed up because the government's crayon wish list has been translated by Network Rail into a specification that the Treasury can be persuaded to accept are pretty long.

Out of interest, what has been the shortest lead time from "I've had an idea, let's electrify this line" (with no surveys done or anything) to the juice being switched on?

HS2 was in planning years before the 2010 announcement, those plans went down to some detail. No one at Network Rail has been working on any plans to wire the coast, the only thing that has been done is that any new infrastructure (signals, foot bridges) has been future-proofed, as is now the custom.

In reality, how many people in North Wales (as opposed to politicians), especially in the eastern part where a lot of the population have their roots in NW England, care that much about connections to South Wales?

Geography means that North and South Wales have always been very separate.

Nationalists whinge about having to go through England to get between different parts of Wales (for some reason I suspect that Austrian nationalists are still prepared to go via Germany rather than the slower, domestic route). Otherwise people in North Wales go to Liverpool, people in mid Wales go to Birmingham, and people in South Wales go to Bristol.

 

[cle]

Isn't Bristol also on the crayon wishlist?

But this is about an announced plan (I am not holding my breath as to if it happens) - and the N vs S Wales debate. North plugs into a network of electric routes. South plugs into only the Paddington-Cardiff line - if the Marches or the Cheltenham route were done towards Brum, it'd be different of course. And finishing Bristol will happen before Swansea.

 

[Meerkat]

No one at Network Rail has been working on any plans to wire the coast, the only thing that has been done is that any new infrastructure (signals, foot bridges) has been future-proofed, as is now the custom.

How far did looking at Crewe - Chester get? From previous comments about difficult bits it sounded like some work had been done to know that much.
Treat like the MML. Get Crewe-Chester going as soon as possible to get money secured and momentum, then Chester-Warrington, then Halton etc etc.
possible issue being scope creep on various wishes for Chester remodelling…….

 

[Krokodil]

But this is about an announced plan (I am not holding my breath as to if it happens) - and the N vs S Wales debate. North plugs into a network of electric routes. South plugs into only the Paddington-Cardiff line - if the Marches or the Cheltenham route were done towards Brum, it'd be different of course. And finishing Bristol will happen before Swansea.

It was the same announcement. Bristol is one of the few things announced that may well get done, on the basis that most of the difficult work was already completed.

 

[Chester1]

How far did looking at Crewe - Chester get? From previous comments about difficult bits it sounded like some work had been done to know that much.
Treat like the MML. Get Crewe-Chester going as soon as possible to get money secured and momentum, then Chester-Warrington, then Halton etc etc.
possible issue being scope creep on various wishes for Chester remodelling…….

Crewe to Chester will be a nightmare. I think there are 25+ Victorian bridges over the line. They might be best upgrading the Middlewich freight line as a diversionary route and closing Crewe to Chester for several months to do all the work.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Crewe to Chester will be a nightmare. I think there are 25+ Victorian bridges over the line. They might be best upgrading the Middlewich freight line as a diversionary route and closing Crewe to Chester for several months to do all the work.

To allow the number of daily train movements that will need to be scheduled on the Middlewich line, what upgrading works will need to be done to bring that line up to an acceptable passenger standard whilst the stated Chester to Crewe line is closed for several months?

 

[Krokodil]

Crewe to Chester will be a nightmare. I think there are 25+ Victorian bridges over the line. They might be best upgrading the Middlewich freight line as a diversionary route and closing Crewe to Chester for several months to do all the work.

Didn't they have to do that in order to route clear the Pendos back when they were introduced?

 

[cle]

It was the same announcement. Bristol is one of the few things announced that may well get done, on the basis that most of the difficult work was already completed.

Ahh, I missed it - apologies. But my point stands on the network connection. And it being framed as a South vs North Wales tug of war. Getting to Bristol doesn't open up a single current service for South Wales. It goes to Cornwall, as it stands! The Paddington services are an island.

Crewe to Chester will be a nightmare. I think there are 25+ Victorian bridges over the line. They might be best upgrading the Middlewich freight line as a diversionary route and closing Crewe to Chester for several months to do all the work.

Could any realignment upgrade the line speed along there? If there is a proper closure. I'd think a few minutes could be saved.

I wonder also, if Halton could be fully doubled and well signalled - to enable a higher service (electric) from Liverpool to Chester and Wales (S and N!) - feels like it should be a trunk service.

 

[Chester1]

Could any realignment upgrade the line speed along there? If there is a proper closure. I'd think a few minutes could be saved.

I wonder also, if Halton could be fully doubled and well signalled - to enable a higher service (electric) from Liverpool to Chester and Wales (S and N!) - feels like it should be a trunk service.

A new alignment would be very expensive and its already a project with a barely positive business case.

Doubling Halton Curve would add very little capacity because it is only one and a half miles long. It takes about two minutes for a train to pass through it. There isn't sufficient capacity between Lime Street and the curve for more services than currently planned. Once the Merseyrail timetable is updated following completion of 777 introduction the service via the curve will be at least ten minutes slower.

Didn't they have to do that in order to route clear the Pendos back when they were introduced?

Do you mean the Voyagers? I was a child when they were introduced and wasn't a train enthusiast, so don't know. The freight line has been used during engineering works more recently. I think the last time was about five years ago. The loop remains in place to allow an hourly service. It was a horrifically slow diversion due to the line speed being 20 mph. I think it took over an hour to run Crewe to Chester.