Storm Ciarán: Weather related disruption 1/2 November

[bramling]

Surprised this hasn’t cropped up here yet, however there looks to be a rather vicious storm arriving Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The exact track isn’t certain, but it looks to have the potential to bring some serious disruption to southern counties especially along the coast as a result of strong wind gusts, especially with ground being saturated and trees in full leaf still.

If it swings northwards then it could bring London into play, though this isn’t clear at the moment.

Storm Ciarán: Flood warnings in place as UK braces for heavy rain

Forecasters say recent wet weather has left the ground saturated, with heavy rain expected this week.

www.bbc.co.uk

Ciarán is set to bring strong winds and heavy rain to southern England and Wales when it arrives on Thursday.

"Stormy conditions are initially likely across southern England and the Channel Isles early on Thursday with damaging gusts of wind up to 80mph, perhaps even 90mph in the most exposed areas. Heavy rain will then spread north and east through the day."

 

[dk1]

Surprised this hasn’t cropped up here yet, however there looks to be a rather vicious storm arriving Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The exact track isn’t certain, but it looks to have the potential to bring some serious disruption to southern counties especially along the coast as a result of strong wind gusts, especially with ground being saturated and trees in full leaf still. If it swings northwards then it could bring London into play, though this isn’t clear at the moment.

Glad I’m on a day shift Thursday. Fed up with getting stuck/delayed lately with flooding etc.

 

[Wivenswold]

After some shifts south in the model output last night there was hope that this wouldn't be more than a very wet, windy autumnal day. However, today it looks like it will be very bad for the SW, South and South East, possibly also quite bad across East Anglia for a time too. In fact the similarities between this system and Oct 87 are striking and like that famous storm, we've had weeks of rain and trees are still in nearly full leaf.

I think we can expect announcements about a reduced service from all of the TOCs with services that go within 30 miles of the coast from Transport for Wales in the West to Greater Anglia in the East.

 

[bramling]

After some shifts south in the model output last night there was hope that this wouldn't be more than a very wet, windy autumnal day. However, today it looks like it will be very bad for the SW, South and South East, possibly also quite bad across East Anglia for a time too. In fact the similarities between this system and Oct 87 are striking and like that famous storm, we've had weeks of rain and trees are still in nearly full leaf.

I think we can expect announcements about a reduced service from all of the TOCs with services that go within 30 miles of the coast from Transport for Wales in the West to Greater Anglia in the East.

I guess the big question is … how far north is this going to affect? It seems that isn’t fully clear yet.

 

[dk1]

After some shifts south in the model output last night there was hope that this wouldn't be more than a very wet, windy autumnal day. However, today it looks like it will be very bad for the SW, South and South East, possibly also quite bad across East Anglia for a time too. In fact the similarities between this system and Oct 87 are striking and like that famous storm, we've had weeks of rain and trees are still in nearly full leaf.

I think we can expect announcements about a reduced service from all of the TOCs with services that go within 30 miles of the coast from Transport for Wales in the West to Greater Anglia in the East.

Crikey. Remember the 87 storm well. Hadn’t been working on the railway long then.

 

[TrainGeekUK]

It’s certainly not looking good weather wise…. its still teaming it down now in Eastbourne, heaven knows what it’ll be like on Thursday!

 

[MikeWM]

Yeah, this looks pretty bad, and (currently) worse the further south you go, though the precise track is still moving around a bit. The charts are currently showing a very clear hurricane-style 'eye' in the middle of the storm too, with unusual clarity for this part of the world.

I wouldn't plan on doing much on Thursday in the south of England unless totally unavoidable. I don't think much on the railways will be getting started, and what does will fall over pretty swiftly.

 

[Techniquest]

Is this a named storm then? I haven't been keeping an eye on the weather forecast since Friday, as I've been indoors for almost 3 solid days, so the news of potential major disruption has caught me off-guard.

Luckily for me I'm not due to go anywhere this week, but I'm certainly intrigued by yet more severe weather. Especially if it's due to land anywhere near here, it's been pretty dry the last couple of days here overall but that means nothing!

 

[anothertyke]

Ciaran. It's an irish civil servant.

 

[Techniquest]

Ciaran. It's an irish civil servant.

Thanks With every week that passes, that seems to bring more intense weather, it seems to be a sign that re-evaluating one's love of the outdoors needs to happen!

 

[bramling]

Thanks With every week that passes, that seems to bring more intense weather, it seems to be a sign that re-evaluating one's love of the outdoors needs to happen!

Don’t go there on that one! As someone who does predominantly outdoor stuff, this whole year has been absolutely dire, especially the so-called summer. This storm could be a different ball-game though for people in the affected areas.

 

[rg177]

I'm doing Sheffield - London - Heathrow on Thursday (long-haul international flight on Friday) so hoping I can get down there relatively unscathed. Looks like the worst will be towards the coasts.

 

[Techniquest]

Don’t go there on that one! As someone who does predominantly outdoor stuff, this whole year has been absolutely dire, especially the so-called summer. This storm could be a different ball-game though for people in the affected areas.

Yes I noted on a completely different thread your mentioning of being a fitness enthusiast. I was pleased to read another forum member is heavily into their fitness, and it pleases me to hear of someone else who is not pleased with this year's weather! I'll leave that discussion where it is in this thread, but I may drop a PM your way in a bit

As for the weather disruption, here's hoping it won't be anything too severe for any of us on the forum Unsurprisingly, even if I'm back to being well again by then, I'm not planning any major adventures this week!

 

[philosopher]

Yeah, this looks pretty bad, and (currently) worse the further south you go, though the precise track is still moving around a bit. The charts are currently showing a very clear hurricane-style 'eye' in the middle of the storm too, with unusual clarity for this part of the world.

I wouldn't plan on doing much on Thursday in the south of England unless totally unavoidable. I don't think much on the railways will be getting started, and what does will fall over pretty swiftly.

My guess is that there will be no services south of London before either 9am or midday on Thursday.

 

[bramling]

Yes I noted on a completely different thread your mentioning of being a fitness enthusiast. I was pleased to read another forum member is heavily into their fitness, and it pleases me to hear of someone else who is not pleased with this year's weather! I'll leave that discussion where it is in this thread, but I may drop a PM your way in a bit

Yes please feel free.

As for the weather disruption, here's hoping it won't be anything too severe for any of us on the forum Unsurprisingly, even if I'm back to being well again by then, I'm not planning any major adventures this week!

At this stage it’s a case of keeping everything crossed that this storm stays as far south as possible and therefore affects as few people as possible. I wrote off doing anything outdoors long ago with the way this year has been!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

My guess is that there will be no services south of London before either 9am or midday on Thursday.

GTR have us on notice that speeds restrictions will be in force and some routes may have to be closed but unlike ScotRail keeping the door open until things become clearer.

 

[SCDR_WMR]

Rather a large amount of rain falling across the North Midlands this afternoon, hopefully and more severe weather misses here!

 

[londonmidland]

Over the last 24 hours the models have been shifting the low pressure system slowly northwards, which long story short means more disruption for more of the country.

Still a long way to go in terms of forecasting between now and then, however should there be any further shifts towards the north, the nastier things will get for many.

 

[trainophile]

I wonder will it last into next week, and affect the North East? Got my final trip of the year to glorious Whitley Bay (waves @Willie Bee) of the year. Just when it's safe not to cancel re. train strikes, the weather goes and throws its oar in .

 

[rg177]

I wonder will it last into next week, and affect the North East? Got my final trip of the year to glorious Whitley Bay (waves @Willie Bee) of the year. Just when it's safe not to cancel re. train strikes, the weather goes and throws its oar in .

Just down the road from Whitley Bay here and we haven't had anything like severe flooding but we've still had some truly miserable weather.

I think just about every day in the past week it's rained. We had a brief respite on Saturday but other than that...

 

[Mcr Warrior]

Over the last 24 hours the models have been shifting the low pressure system slowly northwards, which long story short means more disruption for more of the country.

Still a long way to go in terms of forecasting between now and then, however should there be any further shifts towards the north, the nastier things will get for many.

Latest BBC weather forecast seems to be indicating rather high (70 mph + winds) all the way along the South Coast on late Wednesday/early Thursday, from Wales over to the Thames Estuary. That's a lot of coastline!

 

[Busaholic]

Latest BBC weather forecast seems to be indicating rather high (70 mph + winds) all the way along the South Coast on late Wednesday/early Thursday, from Wales over to the Thames Estuary. That's a lot of coastline!

If Wales becomes the South Coast, then I'm a gonner in Penzance. Know what you mean though. Not too worried my car's clutch has just gone, wouldn't be driving anywhere antway.

 

[Sun Chariot]

The Sunny South Coast - Hampshire / West Sussex border - has been anything but, for the 7 years I've lived here.
Our local roads are only just drying out from the pummelling last week and the weekend.

 

[Russel]

Looks like North Wales now also has a yellow warning for wind and rain on Thursday...

Great, I'd booked some rather cheap advances to take my son to Llandudno for an hour or so on the pier then have a run down the Conwy Valley Line to Betws-Y-Coed, but I'm guessing that'll be washed away by lunch time!

 

[Blindtraveler]

I'm obviously out of practice, used to be far more organized and far less anxious about these named storms but despite only being eight months since I moved that's eight months without being on some kind of mad weather alert and now feeling slightly concerned about it all, hoping that it doesn't pick up until bedtime tonight so I can get to London and do what's needed and get back without being blown away, unlikely if anyone has seen how much I weigh these days or swamped

 

[Horizon22]

Southern are now suggesting people work from home. Suggestions are the air pressure will be some of the lowest in decades.

Storm Ciarán: England and Channel Islands prepare for disruption https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67271027

Gusts of up to 80mph could cause travel disruption, damage to buildings and flying debris.
There are also flood warnings in place.

Storm Ciarán conditions on the Channel Islands are predicted to be the worst in more than 36 years. Main coastal roads on Jersey will be closed later and schools and the airport shut down on Thursday

People in Jersey and Guernsey have also been asked not to stockpile goods after supermarket shelves were stripped

Two hundred one-tonne bags of sand have been put at the top of slipways along the south coast of Jersey

Alerts for the Essex coast have been upgraded to amber from 06:00 GMT to 20:00 on Thursday

Southern Railway has urged commuters to work from home, warning it would be unlikely to provide rail replacement transport

 

[DelW]

Southern are now suggesting people work from home. Suggestions are the air pressure will be some of the lowest in decades.

Storm Ciarán: England and Channel Islands prepare for disruption https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-67271027

The low atmospheric pressure has implications for coastal locations and routes, as lower pressure = higher sea level. Dawlish's defences could be tested again, among others.

 

[AndrewE]

The low atmospheric pressure has implications for coastal locations and routes, as lower pressure = higher sea level. Dawlish's defences could be tested again, among others.

It should be fun there this evening: (High tide at 2043, plus heavy rain and 57 mph wind S.Easterly...)

 

[PTR 444]

I have plans to travel from Poole to Sutton (London) this Friday evening, returning on Sunday. I already have train tickets booked but is it worth booking coach travel as a backup option?

 

[Horizon22]

I have plans to travel from Poole to Sutton (London) this Friday evening, returning on Sunday. Do you think it is worth abandoning my plans or booking coach travel as a backup option?

Should be clearer by Friday evening. Current advice is just to check your travel / route regularly.