I don’t think the truth of it matters now, the notion is embedded. It’s the same as the David Cameron pig thing, there’s zero evidence that happened. It was in a book written by someone with a grudge against him based on an unnamed source who claims to have been there. But forever more he will be associated with pigs.
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The 2024 US presidential election.
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brad465
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He and other prominent figures can probably make casual jokes about it, but they won't go any further than that or else they'll be in the dock for libel.
Busaholic
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It's a perfectly okay thing to say regardless of the supposed reason for saying it.
Busaholic
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It's only the swing states that really matter though.
brad465
Established Member
Part of me wants it to look close when the election is nigh, as this may encourage higher turnout which I suspect will favour the Democrats. Last time when it looked like Biden winning was a foregone conclusion many of the polls were well out with the margins, even though Biden did ultimately win.
nlogax
Established Member
Hmm. I'm starting to feel something totally unexpected, bearing in mind where I originally thought we'd be this close to November. What's that feeling called..optimism?
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birchesgreen
Established Member
Harris has the momentum, Trump seems out of ideas and energy. And short of money according to some reports.
All of these show that things are still fairly tight at the moment though and news of a potential recession could knock things back for Harris if it happens:
Is the US economy heading for recession after stock market slump? - BBC News
Weak jobs figures have spooked stock markets but does this mean a downturn is on the way?
www.bbc.com
I’m more optimistic than I was, but still quite nervous too!
43096
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Well there’s all those legal bills need paying…
The gaffe-laden JD Vance is also a minus point on the Trump campaign, I suspect.
birchesgreen
Established Member
I love how he tried to gate crash Harris on her plane, but she wasn't there so he had to sheepishly walk back down the apron with his hangers on.
It serves Trump right for picking a third-rate Trump cosplayer as his running mate.
Merle Haggard
Established Member
The discussion about is about (basically, betting) odds being used to suggest a likely outcome. It's already been discussed up-thread that people might lay bets on a particular outcome because they believe that it will have a financial penalty for them, and to alleviate it.
Does anyone know whether this has a significant affect on odds quoted for the candidates and parties? I imagine that it would be much more likely to be wealthy people betting on a Democrat win, which might be perceived to result in, amongst other things, higher taxation for the wealthy and they can afford to lay extensive stakes because I can't think of a parallel reason for voting on a Republican win to alleviate financial loss.
Obviously, significance stakes laid by people who want to cover their losses in the event of a Democrat win (but who do not necessarily believe it's the most likely outcome) will affect the odds and give the simplistic impression that, because more money is laid on them, the Democrats are considered more likely to win.
Just interested from the mathematical point. of view, I'm definitely a none of the above person...
Does anyone know whether this has a significant affect on odds quoted for the candidates and parties? I imagine that it would be much more likely to be wealthy people betting on a Democrat win, which might be perceived to result in, amongst other things, higher taxation for the wealthy and they can afford to lay extensive stakes because I can't think of a parallel reason for voting on a Republican win to alleviate financial loss.
Obviously, significance stakes laid by people who want to cover their losses in the event of a Democrat win (but who do not necessarily believe it's the most likely outcome) will affect the odds and give the simplistic impression that, because more money is laid on them, the Democrats are considered more likely to win.
Just interested from the mathematical point. of view, I'm definitely a none of the above person...
Busaholic
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If opinion polls can be taken with a pinch of salt, I'd add a barrel of it to betting odds.
Merle Haggard
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Indeed; but at least opinion polls have the objective of predicting the results, betting odds (as discussed up-thread) have the objective of predicting profitability for the bookmakers.
Busaholic
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Having worked briefly as a croupier in a London casino, I have an intense loathing of the gambling industry, though I don't mind an occasional go on the National Lottery.
Opinion polls can be biased by choosing the questions, as described by the documentary Yes Prime Minister
Betting markets are not biased by the bookmakers. They aim to make their money by balancing the bets for all the outcomes, and cash in on the spread. It is possible to bias a betting market if you place big bets on one side. That is more of a problem for an obscure event than the US presidential election.
If I had was a wealthy foreigner who wanted to distort an election, then placing some big bets would be one way to bias things. For example you could bias the betting odds in a marginal constituency, without having to spend you much, and it might persuade a few floating voters to go for your favourite candidate.
Merle Haggard
Established Member
Or betting on a very specific date for an inevitable event. Who would have thought that the (very, very few) successful punters would be investigated?
Strathclyder
Established Member
He pays legal bills? I guess pigs do fly then lol
birchesgreen
Established Member
Trump was asked about Jan 6th at his latest press conference, he went on about how the crowd had been bigger than MLK at his famous speech.
He hasn't campaigned this week at all, not left Mar-e-lago for days. SAD.
He hasn't campaigned this week at all, not left Mar-e-lago for days. SAD.
43096
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No he con(vince)s the MAGAmob to
Strathclyder
Established Member
Two lies in one: his 2017 inauguration crowd was bigger than the Jan. 6th one and of course the more headline-grabbing one that it was bigger than the 'I Have A Dream' crowd was.
Man, it's beyond exhausting having to constantly fact-check all this easily disprovable BS from a fart in a suit that gained sentience.
He only has one rally/group therapy session lined up in the coming days/week, in the safe red state of Montana I think. Tells you all you need to know about how well he's coping with the Harris-Walz ticket surging ahead.
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That's basically what I was getting at: why bother paying them off yourself when you have so many loyal followers more than willing (after being lied to, gaslit and manipulated of course) to cover the costs through
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I heard one theory that there's a chance he's actually struggling with some PTSD. He only just avoided getting shot and killed in a front of a large crowd. How easy would it be to get straight back on the horse in front of crowd after crowd in exactly the same situation?
I definitely think his narcissistic personality has been severely wounded by what's happened over the last week or so for sure. I think the frankly bizarre post on Truth Social about how Biden is scheming to make a comeback at the DNC convention in a couple of weeks is a sign that he's utterly frustrated and infuriated that he isn't running against Biden anymore. Quite apart from all the positive noise around Harris and Walz and the bump in the polling that they've had. Might also be weighing on his mind at last that if he does lose he's in serious trouble legally again.
But, I do wonder if part of the reason he's seemingly so low energy and not doing rallies and campaign events is that he's actually struggling with the mental aftermath of the assassination attempt?
I definitely think his narcissistic personality has been severely wounded by what's happened over the last week or so for sure. I think the frankly bizarre post on Truth Social about how Biden is scheming to make a comeback at the DNC convention in a couple of weeks is a sign that he's utterly frustrated and infuriated that he isn't running against Biden anymore. Quite apart from all the positive noise around Harris and Walz and the bump in the polling that they've had. Might also be weighing on his mind at last that if he does lose he's in serious trouble legally again.
But, I do wonder if part of the reason he's seemingly so low energy and not doing rallies and campaign events is that he's actually struggling with the mental aftermath of the assassination attempt?
birchesgreen
Established Member
His best bet will be to check if a 757 can fly to somewhere without an extradiction treaty from Florida direct.
nlogax
Established Member
He's struggling with something for sure. Yesterday's ramble-thon was particularly eye-opening. He's a shadow of the man he was in 2016. Physically he looks a lot older than he did even a few months ago and mentally something is definitely off-kilter, even for Trump. May be down to the assassination attempt, the recent upgrade of the Democrat opponents and how Trump fares in comparison or any combination thereof.
The Republicans are now suddenly on the ropes after the recent highs of their Milwaukee convention and I'm left wondering if there's ever been a more rapid and dramatic series of events and changes in any previous presidential contest. I really don't believe there has.
birchesgreen
Established Member
When is the cut off when they can't change the VP candidate? Isn't it about now? I guess if they were going to bin Vance they'd have done it already.
This is very plausible. It would definitely explain some of his behaviour, the guy’s had such a cosseted life and that’s surely the first time that he’s actually experienced any sort of physical violence?
brad465
Established Member
Trump has just agreed to the ABC TV debate next month as well, which on current trends in his behaviour could be an absolute disaster for him (not for us though).
nlogax
Established Member
Could be a car-crash for him. Harris didn't really shine in the 2020 VP debate. I would hope she's learned an awful lot in the last four years, finally drops the word salads she's previously employed during public speeches and tears Trump a new one in the process.
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