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The learning from HS2 is we cannot afford a 'gold plated' solution, and in going down that route we have basically killed any hope of further high speed lines for a generation at least.
It’s going to be a generation before this line actually manages Euston to Birmingham!
A real example of why the Treasury doesn’t want to fund major rail infrastructure - have to commit to huge unkillable chunks, ages late, way over the budget promises, and now coming back cap in hand saying that it doesn’t even really work unless they commit to spend another vast sum to go a bit further!
Should have spent it on a freight line from the Tunnel to the Midlands and North……
They reused St P, Ashford already had the station works done (not the bypass line though), Ebbsfleet serves a new town and Stratford area was pending redevelopment at the time. Its not comparable. Getting into Birmingham and London and the stations/land is a substantial part of the cost of phase 1.
Old Oak common if it ever gets Chiltern service which I doubt as most people want to go to Marylebone only benefits the chiltern main line not Aylesbury.
Marylebone is full and badly connected. Not everyone is interested in going to London, even then OOC will have better connectivity to parts of London as well as the rest of the country.
So why would you need to build a HS2 station nearby? The point on that and Aylesbury is that these places can benefit as a result of hs2 anyway. Let those lines do what they do best.
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It’s going to be a generation before this line actually manages Euston to Birmingham!
A real example of why the Treasury doesn’t want to fund major rail infrastructure - have to commit to huge unkillable chunks, ages late, way over the budget promises, and now coming back cap in hand saying that it doesn’t even really work unless they commit to spend another vast sum to go a bit further!
Should have spent it on a freight line from the Tunnel to the Midlands and North……
The treasury adds costs itself by limiting the annual spend in light of high inflation. It's nothing new that phase 1 would not work well alone, its why phase 2a existed. The government were advised by Oakervee to either build it all or not at all. In the 3 years since go ahead the government wastes money on changing Euston several times, adds costs by rescheduling, devalues by cutting bits, then a change of PM leads to it being cancelled, which itself added costs.
Whilst a freight line would have avoided the high cost of entering cities and innercity stations, it would have been subjected to similar issues (nor would it have solved the issue hs2 was devised to fix). High construction costs are not unique to hs2.
Whilst a freight line would have avoided the high cost of entering cities and innercity stations, it would have been subjected to similar issues (nor would it have solved the issue hs2 was devised to fix). High construction costs are not unique to hs2.
A freight line would have had all sorts of cost savings, and taken freight off the WCML……but that’s an argument for another thread.
It would still annoy the Treasury because once it’s started you are committed to massive stage expense and then never ending demands for ‘just a bit more’
They reused St P, Ashford already had the station works done (not the bypass line though), Ebbsfleet serves a new town and Stratford area was pending redevelopment at the time. Its not comparable. Getting into Birmingham and London and the stations/land is a substantial part of the cost of phase 1.
All the other examples of high speed lines include intermediate stations, but sure let’s add costs for the terminals. Antwerpen Centraal cost €765m in 2011 for 4 underground 400m platforms. Adjusted for PPP as per the world bank figures above and inflation as per the Bank of England it is approximately a billion pounds in today’s money.
There is no reason with a dedicated high speed line in a small country that you cannot use a relatively small station in London and add more padding to the running sections like the Japanese. And if you had an underground station you could put the entrance from the tube in the middle and have people queuing up to board their trains like in Japan/Taiwan.
Given both the above we can surely call £1bn for a Birmingham station and £2bn for a London one to be surely sufficient
So for the first section we should be talking what a total of well under £20bn in today’s money for the whole thing?
Marylebone is a 5 minute walk from one of the best connected tube stations (Baker street) in London with 5 tube lines running to it.
Also in no planet is a commuter rail station with 6 platforms running 7 trains an hour per direction “full”. Certainly such a station should be able to handle 12tph which is pretty much all the track can anyway.
Like sure maybe you could do an additional once per hour Bicester-HDM-PRR-HWY-BCF-GER-OOC train or something, but it isn’t going to change the world.
So why would you need to build a HS2 station nearby? The point on that and Aylesbury is that these places can benefit as a result of hs2 anyway. Let those lines do what they do best.
Which is exactly the reason why some people believe that challenges at a local level should not be entertained.
This should be a nationally important piece of infrastructure, it simply should not be at the whim of people who only care about what they get out of it. It's selfishness and not looking at the bigger picture. There will be benefits for vast area of the county despite not having direct access to it.
My neck of the woods has had HS2 cancelled, probably only for the medium turn, but the general consensus is still overly positive about the project and what it can bring to areas of the country.
There are plenty of ignored reasons. You're saying small in a geographical sense, but Euston currently sees 100k people a day (and will be 150k by the time HS2 is complete), while Antwerp has 34k. Please make better comparisons, or the criticism only applies to a different HS2 than the one being built.
That HSR cost spreadsheet might be interesting, but I can ignore nearly everything on it because those projects were made by an experienced country, or are still just estimates of future projects. HS2 is in that middle area of real world costs, projected benefit. Once it has real world costs and real world benefits, we will see it differently.
Which is exactly the reason why some people believe that challenges at a local level should not be entertained.
This should be a nationally important piece of infrastructure, it simply should not be at the whim of people who only care about what they get out of it. It's selfishness and not looking at the bigger picture. There will be benefits for vast area of the county despite not having direct access to it.
My neck of the woods has had HS2 cancelled, probably only for the medium turn, but the general consensus is still overly positive about the project and what it can bring to areas of the country.
That HSR cost spreadsheet might be interesting, but I can ignore nearly everything on it because those projects were made by an experienced country, or are still just estimates of future projects. HS2 is in that middle area of real world costs, projected benefit. Once it has real world costs and real world benefits, we will see it differently.
But even so the Tokaido Shinkansen or Taiwan HSR or LGV Sud Est were a) cheap and b) in countries that hadn’t done it before.
If we want a good station cost that handles high traffic you could compare to the northern Tokyo extension of the Shinkansen. But certainly for Birmingham and Manchester Antwerpen Centraal looks good.
Where does Aylesbury wish to have a connection with? It already has a connection to London and Birmingham, and also via Chessington to Northampton or Rugby where it has connections to Manchester and Scotland.
Not every place should have direct access to HS2. It will no doubt have the possibility to have a great number of services once the other lines have been thinner out by HS2 taking the fastest trains.
Where does Aylesbury wish to have a connection with? It already has a connection to London and Birmingham, and also via Chessington to Northampton or Rugby where it has connections to Manchester and Scotland.
Not every place should have direct access to HS2. It will no doubt have the possibility to have a great number of services once the other lines have been thinner out by HS2 taking the fastest trains.
Given literally every other country that has built high speed rail would give a station to Aylesbury it seems pretty reasonable that Aylesbury should have one. Especially when Aylesbury currently has no rail connection to the north at all.
And Aylesbury (and the surrounding area) wishes to have better connectivity with the north of England.
Alignment speed, not design speed. Later LGV lines have 350-400kmh alignments, Italy have lines at 400kmh alignments, where operation is at 300kmh. Hs2 is timetabled at 330kmh with top speed of 360kmh to maintain reliability.
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Disagree. There are large stretches where it follows existing corridors and maintains that alignment speed. The decision was taken for 400 because, in terms of alignment, it did not add much to the cost.
Alignment speed, not design speed. Later LGV lines have 350-400kmh alignments, Italy have lines at 400kmh alignments, where operation is at 300kmh. Hs2 is timetabled at 330kmh with top speed of 360kmh to maintain reliability.
There’s a pretty strong argument given the higher population density in Britain and the smaller size of our country that the design specifications of the Tokaido Shinkansen perhaps with higher grades like Frankfurt-Cologne would have been sufficient.
285km/h maximum speeds is still pretty good and leads to an average speed of ~135mph for the Nozomi services.
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Disagree. There are large stretches where it follows existing corridors and maintains that alignment speed. The decision was taken for 400 because, in terms of alignment, it did not add much to the cost
Partly because large part of the population do not understand it. Specifically for Aylesbury, the government should have committed to at least completing the EWR connection to MK that HS2 are spending additional cash providing passive provision for.
However, to reach MK it needs HS2 to complete to provide the capacity on wcml.
Cost per km is a poor comparison. Many builds don't include stations in their costs and most won't have rolling stock costs or depots. There can be significant differences between what's included such as environmental mitigation. That's not to say that hs2 isn't costing more, but it's not comparing apples with apples. EWR Bedford Cambridge is a better comparison (£6bn 2021 prices for 36 miles of unelectrified 100mph line) and shows that there are systemic issues building in the UK.
They aren't building for the same number of trains per hour and generally, in the case of lgv at least, that region pays for their station. Still, there are better ways to improve transport for the intermediate areas via the capacity release, which is the primary purpose anyway, and isn't always possible elsewhere
For info, this is the line profile at the viaduct.
Vertical curvature is the maximum allowed, with a vertical radius of 56,000m.
Gradient to the north (left) is 0.20%; to the south 0.27%
These are the plan and profile maps for Phase One of HS2 between London and the West Midlands updated following completion of the House of Commons Select Committee process in February 2016.
Marylebone is a 5 minute walk from one of the best connected tube stations (Baker street) in London with 5 tube lines running to it.
Also in no planet is a commuter rail station with 6 platforms running 7 trains an hour per direction “full”. Certainly such a station should be able to handle 12tph which is pretty much all the track can anyway.
Like sure maybe you could do an additional once per hour Bicester-HDM-PRR-HWY-BCF-GER-OOC train or something, but it isn’t going to change the world.
For info, this is the line profile at the viaduct. View attachment 180598
Vertical curvature is the maximum allowed, with a vertical radius of 56,000m.
Gradient to the north (left) is 0.20%; to the south 0.27%
The Tokaido Shinkansen and the LGV Sud Est absolutely do run an extremely intensive service and both have intermediate stops for places the size of Aylesbury.
Cost per km is a poor comparison. Many builds don't include stations in their costs and most won't have rolling stock costs or depots. There can be significant differences between what's included such as environmental mitigation. That's not to say that hs2 isn't costing more, but it's not comparing apples with apples. EWR Bedford Cambridge is a better comparison (£6bn 2021 prices for 36 miles of unelectrified 100mph line) and shows that there are systemic issues building in the UK.
Yes. And very much less excavation for the cuttings on either side.
EDIT: Though the HS2 design specification says that
"Where a floodplain is present, the floodplain would be crossed by a viaduct. At
later stages of the design process, detailed flood modelling will be carried out and
may indicate that some or part of these viaducts can be replaced by embankments.
Floodplain compensation can be provided. In other cases a viaduct may be extended."
It would be interesting to know if the detailed modelling of the Thame flood risk was ever carried out. And of course, once design and build contracts were awarded, on a cost-plus basis, then it would not be in the interests of the construction contractor to do any such thing.
EDIT: Though the HS2 design specification says that
"Where a floodplain is present, the floodplain would be crossed by a viaduct. At
later stages of the design process, detailed flood modelling will be carried out and
may indicate that some or part of these viaducts can be replaced by embankments.
Floodplain compensation can be provided. In other cases a viaduct may be extended."
Oxford Street, for example: roughly 5-7mins quicker for places on Chiltern mainline, a further 5 mins quicker from Aylesbury. Same for most destinations unless you're specifically going to Marylebone.
Heathrow would be 35-40 mins quicker, similar for any destination in the SW, South Wales, Reading.
Manchester would be around 90mins quicker even after Rishigeddon.
The Tokaido Shinkansen and the LGV Sud Est absolutely do run an extremely intensive service and both have intermediate stops for places the size of Aylesbury.
Bedford Cambridge is a new alignment. Oxford Bicester and Bicester-Bletchley were reusing alignments and far less work and purchasing of land was required. Still, Bicester-Bletchley is 18miles and was £1bn (likely 20-30% more at today's prices). The French can build high speed rail for that, inclusive of viaducts avoiding flood plains.
Oxford Street, for example: roughly 5-7mins quicker for places on Chiltern mainline, a further 5 mins quicker from Aylesbury. Same for most destinations unless you're specifically going to Marylebone.
How do you work that out? If I assume journey times to Marylebone and Paddington via Old Oak Common are the same then the time to the Regent street Apple Store is 8 minutes on the Elizabeth line and 11 on the Bakerloo from Marylebone.
Also none of this will benefit the via Amersham trains from Aylesbury as the Northolt-Old Oak Common line splits off before then. Additionally I am also assuming that that line will get a speed upgrade to match the line into Marylebone - I.e that you can do Northolt-Old Oak Common in 10 minutes vs 15 for Northolt-Marylebone.
Heathrow would be quicker yes - although for High Wycombe you could get the bus and taxis are cheap and would be even faster for Haddenham and other places further south. For the other places in the South West yes journeys would be quicker but only if they aren’t quicker via Oxford.
Far better to have 12-14tph on the west and 12-14tph on the east. It gets you a lot more overall capacity and allows intermediate stops.
Probably would have worked out cheaper. And actually given the planning delays will continue it might still work out cheaper. Especially as Kings Cross has tonnes of capacity.
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Bedford Cambridge is a new alignment. Oxford Bicester and Bicester-Bletchley were reusing alignments and far less work and purchasing of land was required. Still, Bicester-Bletchley is 18miles and was £1bn (likely 20-30% more at today's prices). The French can build high speed rail for that, inclusive of viaducts avoiding flood plains.
Counter point: it is better to have 18tph on a dedicated high speed line with at least 2tph to all the main intercity destinations (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle, York, Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool, Brum) and then have 12-14tph of high intensity semi-fast and commuter services on the ‘classic’ lines, and this would do much more to transform rail travel for these communities than the current status, or by adding in daft stops on HS lines like Aylesbury would be.
Counter point: it is better to have 18tph on a dedicated high speed line with at least 2tph to all the main intercity destinations (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle, York, Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool, Brum) and then have 12-14tph of high intensity semi-fast and commuter services on the ‘classic’ lines, and this would do much more to transform rail travel for these communities than the current status, or by adding in daft stops on HS lines like Aylesbury would be.
Tens of billions of pounds of public money has been spent to avoid giving Aylesbury at station. And certainly any extension of HS2 beyond Crewe has been pushed back into the long grass because of the absolute nonsense of not giving mid sized places like Aylesbury and Leamington Spa access to HS2.
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I know each London terminal likes to pretend it is at capacity even when they aren’t. But assuming you can turn around a long distance service in 40 minutes (which St Pancras manages) and a commuter service in 30 minutes (which Fenchurch Street more than manages) then you can run 16 long distance services an hour from Kings Cross, or 12 long distance services and 6 commuter services.
And certainly any extension of HS2 beyond Crewe has been pushed back into the long grass because of the absolute nonsense of not giving mid sized places like Aylesbury and Leamington Spa access to HS2.
Counter point: it is better to have 18tph on a dedicated high speed line with at least 2tph to all the main intercity destinations (Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle, York, Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool, Brum) and then have 12-14tph of high intensity semi-fast and commuter services on the ‘classic’ lines, and this would do much more to transform rail travel for these communities than the current status, or by adding in daft stops on HS lines like Aylesbury would be.
Well said. Isn’t the whole point to remove tge expresses from the existing network, thereby freeing those slots for more regional services. It would be better for places like Aylesbury to have twice as many conventional trains, going all sorts of places, than one high speed train per hour.
I suppose this is not the place to opine that the next stop after OOC on the Elizabeth Line should have been Marylebone/Baker Street… but this would obviously have affected the route taken elsewhere.
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