One if is on time aspect but I have another if, does the government have the confidence in NR (suggested as being unlikely on this board) and secondly the money. I wonder whether the CP6 settlement will be anywhere the CP5 settlement given the cuts being made elsewhere in the government's budget (25 to 40% depending what way the wind blows) currently. I guess the railways will have to suffer some pain at some point.
DfT funding to the railway is decreasing as premium payments increase, so there's not necessarily going to be a requirement to make significant savings to any of the funding available to Network Rail - either the network grant or the various special programs. That said, I'd say there's a little leeway to remove a few hundred million from NR's CP6 budget without it being too problematic.
There's a lot of work being done now which will not need to feature in future control periods - double/four tracking works continue in many areas, we've got a lot of level crossings closed, many stations have now been made disabled compliant, lots of route clearance has been carried out for 26m IEP stock, lots of platforms have been extended and lots of energy and maintenance efficient equipment has been installed - LED signal heads, LED PIS systems and so on.
Track, signalling and basic maintenance work always needs to be carried out, but some of that is being helped by the programs of work being carried out, disabled accessible bridges replace tired, life expired structures, such as happened at Dunblane, and provide electrification clearances for the cost of an extra couple of steps and a few inches of steel whilst platform extensions and re-openings remove some of the decaying and crumbling platforms which need attention and vegetation management. Drainage upgrades, culvert rebuilds and hundreds of other small projects are one time exercises.
Re-doubling, four tracking and other traffic management works being carried out has the side effect of tidying up signalling cable runs and cabinets, generally moving it from positions where it was acceptable when lines were singled back in the days of BR, into new acceptable locations today, well clear of the running lines, helping to eliminate red zone working, that sort of thing.
Electrification work also removes lots of future problems - Farnworth famously is getting a lovely twin track, W12 gauged, 100mph capable tunnel in lieu of a 200 year old maintenance and gauging nightmare, so for the one time upfront cost of re-boring Farnworth, we get decades of tiny maintenance expenditures instead of significant ones. Farnworth will save Network Rail a significant sum during CP6 alone.
There's a lot of bridges which are getting to the point where they're needing attention, electrification removes and rebuilds these, providing us with a better overhead environment, with robust parapets compliant with the latest safety regulations - in some areas, we don't have to worry about parapets being knocked off or simply falling down onto the track and incidents like the Oxshott bridge containment failure can't happen on our new bridges.
Signal gantries and posts also tend to be replaced or moved around during electrification works too, and as with track layout changes, we generally tidy up cable routings, move cabinets into better locations and make maintenance work safer and easier for those involved.
Electrification also reduces the maintenance cost per passenger km - a Class 319 is 15 tonnes lighter than 2 x Class 150 units and there are good maintenance savings as a result, even taking into account OLE maintenance, and the little savings as a result of lower energy costs make a little extra available for premium payments or reduced subsidy.
What we will see is the amount of revenue coming into the railways increasing, the amount of money being spent on maintenance increasing at a slightly slower rate, as some of the most expensive and costly maintenance costs are slowly dealt with, the amount of subsidy reducing accordingly. There's still going to be lots of money poured into the network to increase capacity, and in light of the growing NOx emissions issue/scandal, more commitments to electrify key railway lines and eliminate diesel trains, especially from city centre locations.
