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HS2 decision expected to be made this week as Johnson calls cabinet meeting over its future

Do you think HS2 will go ahead

  • Yes it will in full

    Votes: 59 29.2%
  • Yes but only Phase 1 and 2a

    Votes: 51 25.2%
  • Yes but with several modifications to the route (including conventional lines)

    Votes: 63 31.2%
  • No It will be scrapped

    Votes: 24 11.9%
  • Don’t Care

    Votes: 5 2.5%

  • Total voters
    202
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Jorge Da Silva

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https://www.cityam.com/crunch-time-boris-johnson-to-meet-ministers-over-hs2-decision-this-week/

Boris Johnson is thought to be preparing for a crunch meeting with chancellor Sajid Javid and transport secretary Grant Shapps over the future of the HS2 rail line this week.

The meeting could well be a combative one, after a torrid week for supporters of the beleaguered project.

On Monday, it emerged the price tag is expected to soar as high as £106bn, more than three times its original £32.7bn budget.


Then, on Friday, the National Audit Office warned the project will face further delays if construction does not begin by the end of March.

The chancellor is said to be the least convinced by the case for going ahead with the scheme. Meanwhile, Shapps is likely to push the Prime Minister in the direction of building the line.

This morning, Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay said HS2 plays “an important part” in Johnson’s plan of “levelling up” parts of the UK outside London.

“We have a strong commitment to levelling up all parts of the United Kingdom. HS2 is a key part of that,” he told the BBC.

“Not just from a speed [perspective] but more from a capacity point of view in the line. And that is a very clear commitment we’ve given the north.”

When asked whether his gut feeling over the project was yes or no, he said: “Yes.”

HS2-map-630x645.jpg

The HS2 route map (HS2 Ltd)
HS2 Ltd ‘accused of trying to con PM’
Nevertheless, diverging views from Javid and Shapps would make Johnson’s already stark choice even more difficult.


If he chooses to go ahead with the project, he must side with HS2 Ltd, which has this morning been accused of trying to con him into giving it the green light.

According to the Sunday Telegraph, the company has been “revising” agreements with firms carrying out the main construction works.

The revisions would reportedly mean future cost increases will be borne by the taxpayer-funded company, rather than contractors.

And Colin Morris, HS2’s former director of strategy, told the paper the company was “artificially” lowering the estimated costs of the scheme.

Such a move could make the final taxpayers’ bill much more expensive than current estimates, which already put it as high as £106bn. Morris said the scheme was “not fit for purpose”.

hs2.jpg

HS2 has faced a string of delays and budget increases in recent years (HS2 Ltd)
Scrapping scheme ‘could cost £12bn’
On the other hand, if Johnson scraps the scheme, it will cost at least £12bn in write-offs and compensation, according to the Observer.

Sources have said putting HS2 on the scrap heap would cost an extra £3bn to £4bn.

That comes on top of the £9bn that has already been spent on the project.

Cancellation would mean spending billions on stopping so-called enabling work.

Site clearance, ecology surveys and ground improvements would have to come to a halt.

On top of that, terminating construction contracts with firms including Balfour Beatty, Kier and Costain could add even more to the bill.

Large contractors have already written to the Prime Minister, warning of the damage that cancelling the project could do to their businesses and the wider regional economy.

Hs2 decision is expected this week as Johnson calls cabinet meeting over the future of the rail project.

plus several other outlets are reporting the same story
 
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Glenn1969

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I think it will be a week tomorrow which counts as early February unless they announce it on Friday to distract from any Brexit Day gloom people may have
 

Busaholic

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A decision this week to carry on without significant deviation (quite possible according to authoritative sources) doesn't mean, of course, that it'll all be plain sailing. It'd be quite possible that any decision could be reversed later. The worst thing would be to allow the juggernaut to continue for now, many more billions down the road, but no actual trains get to run, regardless of whether any track gets laid.
 

Mogster

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A decision this week to carry on without significant deviation (quite possible according to authoritative sources) doesn't mean, of course, that it'll all be plain sailing. It'd be quite possible that any decision could be reversed later. The worst thing would be to allow the juggernaut to continue for now, many more billions down the road, but no actual trains get to run, regardless of whether any track gets laid.

Why would trains not run? The project is based on existing technology already being used in many other countries, nothing new has to be developed, it’s not 600mph maglev that’s being proposed.

We are a wealthy country, even if it costs 150BN we can afford it, the only question is if we decided to spend the money or direct the funds to... something else.
 

Busaholic

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Why would trains not run? The project is based on existing technology already being used in many other countries, nothing new has to be developed, it’s not 600mph maglev that’s being proposed.

We are a wealthy country, even if it costs 150BN we can afford it, the only question is if we decided to spend the money or direct the funds to... something else.
You could equally ask why no trains are running on Crossrail. There are any number of reasons why that might happen, even just down to the trains having been ordered not appearing or been incompatible with signalling or whatever. Regrettably, we are getting an incredibly bad reputation in this country for incompetence.
 

SuperNova

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Why would trains not run? The project is based on existing technology already being used in many other countries, nothing new has to be developed, it’s not 600mph maglev that’s being proposed.

We are a wealthy country, even if it costs 150BN we can afford it, the only question is if we decided to spend the money or direct the funds to... something else.

I admire your positivity RE the cost. However, we are still running at a budget deficit - and at a 5 year high at that too.

Saying that I'm all for HS2 and i think they should go further with the plans past Birmingham. The cost-benefit analysis doesn't include the extra capacity the WCML and ECML would receive, which think-tanks seem to be using against HS2.

The tories at truly at a crossroads. If they want to continue to make inroads in the North/Midlands, then they need to back rail investment with HS2, TRU and Midland mainline works.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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Why would trains not run? The project is based on existing technology already being used in many other countries, nothing new has to be developed, it’s not 600mph maglev that’s being proposed.

We are a wealthy country, even if it costs 150BN we can afford it, the only question is if we decided to spend the money or direct the funds to... something else.

Not sure where that wealthy as we still have to borrow 50B+ year so its is absolutely right that the costs are challenged. As you say this is existing technology and we have done this before with HS1. That had its own moment on cost issues in 1998 but the project was re calibrated and bailed out by the government of the day to the tune of £2B but ultimately went on to deliver to time and schedule both its phases at a cost of £6.2B (including Temple Mills depot at 400m) or c8.5B in 2019 money. See NAO report from 2012.
So that was 108km through the busy SE and HS2 Ph1 is 190km so that ought to be 17B add on some trains 2B and two more stations 1.5B plus a 1B as property prices have gone up faster than inflation so around 21B but 2015 estimate was already at 27B itself an 8B increase from the 2013 estimate. In 2019 Allan Cooks stocktake report them moved up the phase 1 outturn to 36-38B based on having contractor input whose costs were 83% higher than HS2 estimate (how did they get it so wrong). See 2020 nao report. So its little wonder that there is huge skepticism about this project and understandably so. This has a very expensive leadership team supported by an army of consultants who need to replaced by the same arrangement that succesfully executed HS1 between 1998 and 2007 to allow phase one to proceed with cost and schedule certainty. Phase two needs to be separated out and a cost ceiling imposed that the project is built to and if that means less than 350km and less extravagant stations so what
 

SlimJim1694

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The tories at truly at a crossroads.

Not just the tories but the country as a whole I think. Whether or not HS2 goes ahead will reflect the direction this country is heading post-Brexit. Positive steps to massively improve the country's connectivity by investing in decent rail infrastructure and relieving congestion on existing routes, or a wasted opportunity, a disgusting waste of money and a sign that the country has no interest in future-proofing itself. It'll be an opportunity wasted for at least a generation or two and if they don't go ahead with it as planned.

I think it was Paul Theroux who wrote that you can tell a lot about a country from travelling on its rail system. If he's right then this country wants locking up and the key throwing away. HS2 is a fantastic opportunity which it would be a crime to waste.
 

Traveller54

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Looking at this from the Scottish perspective, if it goes ahead in full as proposed, it will reduce journey times from Edinburgh and Glasgow to London to 3.5 hours which would just about be comparable to air when you add in things like travel between airports and city centres, getting through airport security, collecting luggage etc. I’m not sure how much this will reduce demand for air travel but this will have to be done somehow to reduce carbon emissions.

At first I was in favour of HS2 but always felt it should be constructed in full rather than in stages as the full benefits would only be seen over longer distances. I’m not so sure now. It would be clearly a lot more expensive to continue the HS2 line to Scotland, especially with Maglev around the corner which would reduce travel times between London and the Scottish cities to about an hour.

On balance, I feel enough money has been spent on it already for it not to go ahead.
 

class26

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You could equally ask why no trains are running on Crossrail. There are any number of reasons why that might happen, even just down to the trains having been ordered not appearing or been incompatible with signalling or whatever. Regrettably, we are getting an incredibly bad reputation in this country for incompetence.

Read up about the far "superior" Germans and the total disaster that the new Berlin (Brandenburg) airport has been. It`s years and years late and has to be almost completely rebuilt even though it has never seen one aircraft operate from it. Vorsprung dur tecknik?
 

class26

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Looking at this from the Scottish perspective, if it goes ahead in full as proposed, it will reduce journey times from Edinburgh and Glasgow to London to 3.5 hours which would just about be comparable to air when you add in things like travel between airports and city centres, getting through airport security, collecting luggage etc. I’m not sure how much this will reduce demand for air travel but this will have to be done somehow to reduce carbon emissions.

At first I was in favour of HS2 but always felt it should be constructed in full rather than in stages as the full benefits would only be seen over longer distances. I’m not so sure now. It would be clearly a lot more expensive to continue the HS2 line to Scotland, especially with Maglev around the corner which would reduce travel times between London and the Scottish cities to about an hour.

On balance, I feel enough money has been spent on it already for it not to go ahead.

It should ideally go through to Scotland but to announce this at the beginning would have the cost so high it would never have got off the drawing board. I think one of the mistakes made so far (apart from saving 20 mins to Brum) is to announce so much together. If phase one was announced, then a little later phase 2a , followed by 2b as separate entities (financially) it would have a better chance of getting the nod. Its like announcing building the M1,2,3,4,5, motorways all at the same time with the combined cost.
 

irish_rail

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End of the week would be a good time to cancel it, what with br*xit happening won't even make the front pages if it's axed.
I think the north will be offered vastly improved links between it's major cities instead, which I think will be more beneficial and will be a way of slightly apeasing northern councils.
 

Bigfoot

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Read up about the far "superior" Germans and the total disaster that the new Berlin (Brandenburg) airport has been. It`s years and years late and has to be almost completely rebuilt even though it has never seen one aircraft operate from it. Vorsprung dur tecknik?
But the Germans are so perfect. :lol: it may well be amost decade late when it opens. Makes crossrail look good.
 

Mogster

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End of the week would be a good time to cancel it, what with br*xit happening won't even make the front pages if it's axed.
I think the north will be offered vastly improved links between it's major cities instead, which I think will be more beneficial and will be a way of slightly apeasing northern councils.

Maybe but the political and economic fallout of cancelling North of Birmingham would be massive. The Northern section won’t be built for years but plans for its arrival are well underway. Both of the metro Mayors are solidly behind HS2 as are Northern business leaders. Cancelling HS2 hardly sits well with Boris’s new “Golden Age of BritainTM” either but we’ll see... I can see auditors being sent in and a ground up review happening as went on with Crossrail when things got ropey, then quietly the project just proceeded.

HS2 is pretty much shovel ready, NP Rail isn’t even in the early planning stage, HS2 could be finished before NPR is ready to break ground. The contractors could just move on to NP Rail or/and carry on to Scotland.
 

Gareth

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There are more than two metro mayors in the north; although there may as well not be.
 

yorkie

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Jorge Da Silva

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https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/decision-hs2-high-speed-rail-17639100

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/hs2-decision-could-made-week-17639904

Both of these articles are reporting that HS2 Phase 1 is set to get the Green Light.

The part in question:

And the Government is expected to announce shortly that it is pressing ahead with phase one of the proposed line, which connects London to Birmingham.

However, it is not known whether it will announce backing for phase two, which includes services to Manchester, Leeds and Newcastle. Under the current proposals, new high speed track will run from Birmingham to Leeds.
 

Meerkat

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When does phase 2 have to get the green light if it is to stay on schedule? Is there chance to see how phase 1 is going on schedule/budget first?
Phase 2a to Crewe is surely essential??
 

Roose

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The line continuing from Birmingham to Leeds is the real game-changer for the East & West Midlands and Yorkshire, especially in conjunction with NPR/HS3.

(Not sure about South Yorkshire, given the proposed Thomas the Tank branch That Sheffield City Council have talked themselves into.)
 

D365

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I just don't see how the business case for Phase 1 can be fulfilled without Phases 2a and 2b.
 

camflyer

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Phase 1 - probably too expensive to scrap at this advanced stage
Phase 2a - probably too politically difficult to scrap
Phase 2b - probably at the most risk. Could get rebranded and merged in with the NPR project.
 
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