Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways?

Flyingsprinter · 15 Mar 2020

As regards TOCs saying ticket sales are down, in the last week the trains I’ve traveled on on northern have all been about as full as always, but I’ve not seen 1 guard. Usually you don’t see them all the time on northern but on 5 journeys and 10 trains in that not seeing any is odd. Maybe this is why ticket sales are down? People traveling for free. Are guards being told to self isolate in their cabs and not go round checking tickets as they may spread things between passengers?

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prod_pep · 15 Mar 2020

Flyingsprinter said:
As regards TOCs saying ticket sales are down, in the last week the trains I’ve travelled on on northern have all been about as full as always, but I’ve not seen 1 guard. Usually you don’t see them all the time on northern but on 5 journeys and 10 trains in that not seeing any is odd. Maybe this is why ticket sales are down? People travelling for free. Are guards being told to self isolate in their cabs and not go round checking tickets as they may spread things between passengers?

Same experience for me last week on Merseyrail. All guards stayed in the rear cab throughout which is very unusual, although I can't speak for their reasons.

Bletchleyite · 15 Mar 2020

prod_pep said:
Same experience for me last week on Merseyrail. All guards stayed in the rear cab throughout which is very unusual, although I can't speak for their reasons.

This weekend I did Bletchley-Brum-Liverpool and back on the through train (which I'll be honest with a half-loaded 350/4 was quite a pleasant experience). On every single train my ticket was checked, which is quite a contrast to normal and was very surprising - I'd assumed that guards would be (this time justifiably) hiding by now.

8J · 15 Mar 2020

prod_pep said:
Same experience for me last week on Merseyrail. All guards stayed in the rear cab throughout which is very unusual, although I can't speak for their reasons.

Merseyrail guards have been instructed to remain in the back cab during peak times I believe.

I recognised the guard on the train I was on this morning as one of the more keen guards and he did not carry out a ticket check but was still patrolling the train.

WatcherZero · 15 Mar 2020

Flyingsprinter said:
As regards TOCs saying ticket sales are down, in the last week the trains I’ve traveled on on northern have all been about as full as always, but I’ve not seen 1 guard. Usually you don’t see them all the time on northern but on 5 journeys and 10 trains in that not seeing any is odd. Maybe this is why ticket sales are down? People traveling for free. Are guards being told to self isolate in their cabs and not go round checking tickets as they may spread things between passengers?

Opposite for me last week, every day a full ticket check on originating trains leaving Wallgate, a gated station, so of course no tickets being sold. Probably only seen three checks in the previous 12 months.

sheff1 · 15 Mar 2020

Bessie said:
18% fall in passengers will be more like 80% by next week. Most London based office jobs can be done from home.

If true, there will clearly be a major impact on the railway ..... but, we have been told often enough on here that the vast majority of London commuters have no choice but to use the train and suggestions re home working have been poo-pooed.

Carlisle · 15 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
On every single train my ticket was checked, which is quite a contrast to normal and was very surprising - I'd assumed that guards would be (this time justifiably) hiding by now.

I can’t imagine there’d be official instructions to hide, as if things get that serious they’re bound to close all bars, clubs & cafes etc first

alistairlees · 15 Mar 2020

Tazi Hupefi said:
How does the bond work though? If a TOC goes under, who's guaranteeing the bond? Is it a commercial entity like a bank, or is it Government?

Has this ever happened before? Normally a third party like CAA would step in for flights, but would ORR manage this for rail?

The bond is provided by an insurer (or as a parent company guarantee). It’s the insurer or parent company that stumps up the cash. The TOC pays for the bond. The parent company guarantees were (I think) called on virgin trains east coast. There isn’t much of a season ticket bond for that TOC though; nothing like (for example) southeastern or greater anglia.

Bletchleyite · 15 Mar 2020

Carlisle said:
I can’t imagine there’d be official instructions to hide, as if things get that serious they’re bound to close all bars, clubs & cafes etc first

No, but LNR guards are notorious for hiding in the back cab, and there is no way anyone will be disciplined for it now.

Brissle Girl · 15 Mar 2020

Tazi Hupefi said:
How does the bond work though? If a TOC goes under, who's guaranteeing the bond? Is it a commercial entity like a bank, or is it Government?

Has this ever happened before? Normally a third party like CAA would step in for flights, but would ORR manage this for rail?

If it’s anything like other commercial contracts then the TOC would be required to post collateral (probably cash) into an account which the govt could access unilaterally if required, and any amounts released would only be permitted if the government agrees. The amounts posted or released each month would be based on accounts provided and agreed between both parties. It could be lighter touch than that, but it’s a fairly standard mechanism in the financial markets.

Several franchises have failed, but always in a reasonably controlled manner as the (separate) bond set up at outset gives time for the government to react and put in place alternative arrangements, in exactly the way we’ve just seen with Northern.

bussnapperwm · 15 Mar 2020

Tazi Hupefi said:
How does the bond work though? If a TOC goes under, who's guaranteeing the bond? Is it a commercial entity like a bank, or is it Government?

Has this ever happened before? Normally a third party like CAA would step in for flights, but would ORR manage this for rail?

They'd probably move the affected TOC into the DOR portfolio, or a management contract.

bussnapperwm · 15 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
No, but LNR guards are notorious for hiding in the back cab, and there is no way anyone will be disciplined for it now.

I think the only WMT conductors who will be visible are the ones employed by the subcontractor who does the Stourbridge Town line. No fully enclosed cab for them to hide in

8J · 15 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
No, but LNR guards are notorious for hiding in the back cab, and there is no way anyone will be disciplined for it now.

There is a massive disparity between depots on LNR. I tend to find the Crewe based conductors are the most proactive at doing tickets.

M!T · 15 Mar 2020

TOCs are going to get a rude awakening when businesses have realised that their staff can work and conference perfectly well from home and they're going to have to rely on leisure passengers who, mostly, can't afford to pay the stratospheric rail fares that large corporations can.

MadCommuter · 15 Mar 2020

I've decided to fire the car up tomorrow and get a refund on my annual season. It's only a matter of time until my employer asks me to work from home, so I may as well reduce risk now.

LowLevel · 15 Mar 2020

I am normally as keen as you get for checking tickets but even I've backed off a bit. I walk through and attend to my duties as quickly as possible. I've also taken to wearing gloves (non latex ones to avoid possibly causing passengers an allergic reaction if we do touch :oops:

) primarily because I find having something on my hands makes me think more about touching my face, rather than any illusion about protection. Trains are much quieter and I have little interest in hanging around in the saloon for more time than necessary.

rdlover777 · 15 Mar 2020

How likely would the outcome be renationalization, because wasn't running at a loss one of the reasons why nationalization happened in 1947/1948?

LittleAH · 15 Mar 2020

rdlover777 said:
How likely would the outcome be renationalization, because wasn't running at a loss one of the reasons why nationalization happened in 1947/1948?

As Christian Wolmar put on Twitter - expect franchises to be suspended.

PG · 16 Mar 2020

Meerkat said:
There won’t be a getting back to normal will there?
A likely recession plus permanent change to working practices will keep demand suppressed?

This post from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/greater-anglia-rolling-stock-updates.143516/ set me thinking that we may find some TOCs have a surplus of rolling stock in the future.

Are we likely to see ROSCOs failing or train manufacturers closing some newly opened facilities as orders get cancelled?

bluenoxid · 16 Mar 2020

Which operators have a backlog of route/traction learning for staff? If I had certain controls, units would be being shifted around to enable a major catch up.

It would hopefully enable the acceleration of non compliant stock withdrawal.

squizzler · 16 Mar 2020

I foresee, as I said elsewhere, that passengers will be receptive to the ATOC's proposal for reformed (dynamic priced) fares combined with an allocated seats system on long distance services. Such a system offers the means to even out loadings within and between different services, and prevent loading in excess of capacity, which require passengers not just to stand in close proximity but also hold onto internal fittings for support.

I imagine people will remain squeamish about crowding and using handholds long after the issue has passed, so fares reform can probably be sold as a 'safety feature' even if they bring it in afterwards.

2L70 · 16 Mar 2020

mike57 said:
We have been told to avoid travel where possible, We set a video and screen share Friday instead of a face to face meeting in Preston, so yes I agree passenger number may never recover

Good idea. The Coronavirus won’t enter parts of Preston for fear of catching something.

WatcherZero said:
Opposite for me last week, every day a full ticket check on originating trains leaving Wallgate, a gated station, so of course no tickets being sold. Probably only seen three checks in the previous 12 months.

Only on here could a discussion about Coronavirus turn in to someone having a go at Guards not doing tickets.

Bletchleyite · 16 Mar 2020

LowLevel said:
I am normally as keen as you get for checking tickets but even I've backed off a bit. I walk through and attend to my duties as quickly as possible. I've also taken to wearing gloves (non latex ones to avoid possibly causing passengers an allergic reaction if we do touch ) primarily because I find having something on my hands makes me think more about touching my face, rather than any illusion about protection. Trains are much quieter and I have little interest in hanging around in the saloon for more time than necessary.

What I've found interesting is that guards have not only been out and about checking (none this morning though[1]), but have still been taking my ticket from me and giving it back rather than just looking - if I did have it that would be an easy way to spread. I guess old habits die hard.

[1] He did dispatch from the saloon, though, which I found a bit odd.

squizzler · 16 Mar 2020

Will it be possible to relax policies concerning bikes? There is now more space on the trains for bike carriage, and using a bike for onward connection reduces the need to risk further infection on busses, taxis and shared bikes. But on the other hand the bike might be seen by other passengers as a potentially contaminated object brought on board.

Bletchleyite · 16 Mar 2020

squizzler said:
Will it be possible to relax policies concerning bikes? There is now more space on the trains for bike carriage, and using a bike for onward connection reduces the need to risk further infection on busses, taxis and shared bikes.

I'd imagine enforcement will just weaken.

But on the other hand the bike might be seen by other passengers as a potentially contaminated object brought on board.

I'm sorry but that is about the biggest piece of nonsense I've heard all day.

squizzler · 16 Mar 2020

Bletchleyite said:
I'm sorry but that is about the biggest piece of nonsense I've heard all day.

I agree, was trying to find if there were any reasons why more bikes shouldn't be allowed onboard. As far as cross contamination is concerned, like most riders I wouldn't want others to touch my bicycle without asking first even in the best of circumstances!

telstarbox · 16 Mar 2020

From the Guardian today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...stralia-france-italy-spain-update-latest-news

The numbers of passengers travelling on London’s Tube network has fallen by nearly a fifth, while the numbers on buses are down 10%, compared to the same time last year, according to a statement by Transport for London.

It is significant that the Tube numbers are down more than the buses, as my colleague Jim Waterson, the Guardian media editor, pointed out as he sent in this information.

Commuters travelling on the Tube, which is more expensive and connects the city centre to the suburbs, tend to be drawn from higher socio-economic groups, who tend to work white-collar jobs and are more able to work from home.

In short, the figures suggest that more well-off Londoners are more likely to be staying at home to avoid the coronavirus outbreak, while those in less well-paid jobs are still travelling to work every day.

TfL estimates that it will take a hit of up to £500m to its revenue as a result of the fall in passenger numbers, which comes as Tube and bus revenues were already about 2% lower than the previous year.

rdlover777 · 16 Mar 2020

wasn't sure if to make this its own thread but it looks like the railways are to be nationalised due to the COVID-19 fallout

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/16/railways-nationalised-coronavirus-rescue-plan/

Britain’s railways will be effectively nationalised under radical new plans being considered by the Government to combat the fallout from coronavirus.

Operators have been plunged into crisis as passenger numbers have plummeted by a third as commuters shun travelling by train, and are appealing to ministers for a bailout.

One of two key strategies tabled by the industry is for rail contracts with private companies to be ripped up and replaced fixed fee alternatives, according to sources.

The move means the taxpayer will fund the country’s train network, making sure that services continue to run even if they are empty.

i'll try to find articles from other sites like BBC as telegraph is paywalled

221129 · 16 Mar 2020

rdlover777 said:
wasn't sure if to make this its own thread but it looks like the railways are to be nationalised due to the COVID-19 fallout

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/03/16/railways-nationalised-coronavirus-rescue-plan/

i'll try to find articles from other sites like BBC as telegraph is paywalled

So A management contract then, not nationalisation.

rdlover777 · 16 Mar 2020

221129 said:
So A management contract then, not nationalisation.

the part of the article i was allowed to view due to the paywall didn't word as a management contract

Coronavirus: what impact might it have on the railways?

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