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HS2 Manchester leg scrapped: what should happen now?

Xenophon PCDGS

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They've not, but it's highly likely they would do if they were to form a government.
It was only a matter of days ago when news broke that the Labour Party was "shelving" the £28 billion pledge of green matters should they be elected as the next Government, so why do you think that they will view railways any differently to that?
 
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Peter Sarf

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It was only a matter of days ago when news broke that the Labour Party was "shelving" the £28 billion pledge of green matters should they be elected as the next Government, so why do you think that they will view railways any differently to that?
You are right BUT if the Labour Party were to choose between HS2 and Green matters it would simply be down to which one attracts the most VOTES !.
 

HSTEd

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You are right BUT if the Labour Party were to choose between HS2 and Green matters it would simply be down to which one attracts the most VOTES !.
I doubt there are many votes in HS2 or anything even peripherally associated with it now.
Especially with continuing cost escalation and delays and arguments over Euston etc.
 

Starmill

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It was only a matter of days ago when news broke that the Labour Party was "shelving" the £28 billion pledge of green matters should they be elected as the next Government, so why do you think that they will view railways any differently to that?
You didn't actually listen to that announcement did you? What they said was that all spending would be committed based on hard numbers, and no promises of spending would be made that aren't compliant with the fiscal rules. That sounds sensible to me. As the fiscal rules allow for capital spending funded by borrowing there's no reason to believe rail and other capital spending won't be available, subject to the rules.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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You didn't actually listen to that announcement did you? What they said was that all spending would be committed based on hard numbers, and no promises of spending would be made that aren't compliant with the fiscal rules. That sounds sensible to me. As the fiscal rules allow for capital spending funded by borrowing there's no reason to believe rail and other capital spending won't be available, subject to the rules.
Sir Keir Starmer is well versed in understanding matters of major financial implications and is well aware that a General Election is many months away and any new incoming Government would want to see the actual financial situation when they came to power. The wording to which you so allude is a perfect example of "politic-speak" and at the age of 78, I have had the opportunity to have heard many such statements over the recent decades by both of the two major political parties.
 

nr758123

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I would argue that in many people’s view Manchester is the UK’s second city from a cultural and business standpoint nowadays, and Birmingham being the centre of a full HS2 network could certainly have changed that!
I seem to recall the two Andys Burnham and Street, at a joint press conference, stressing the importance of a high speed rail link between England's second and third cities, but agreeing not to make claims as to which was second and which was third.
 

Bletchleyite

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I seem to recall the two Andys Burnham and Street, at a joint press conference, stressing the importance of a high speed rail link between England's second and third cities, but agreeing not to make claims as to which was second and which was third.

These days they're probably joint second, to be honest. It used to be clearer cut in favour of Birmingham but it hasn't been for probably about 20 years now.
 

Starmill

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Sir Keir Starmer is well versed in understanding matters of major financial implications and is well aware that a General Election is many months away and any new incoming Government would want to see the actual financial situation when they came to power. The wording to which you so allude is a perfect example of "politic-speak" and at the age of 78, I have had the opportunity to have heard many such statements over the recent decades by both of the two major political parties.
You claimed that a review of railway policy would be "shelved". I'm pointing out that you've got no evidence of that, you're simply making things up so you can criticise Starmer.

These days they're probably joint second, to be honest. It used to be clearer cut in favour of Birmingham but it hasn't been for probably about 20 years now.
Arguably you could say they're joint third and the second is just a very big gap!
 

eldomtom2

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You claimed that a review of railway policy would be "shelved". I'm pointing out that you've got no evidence of that, you're simply making things up so you can criticise Starmer.
Again, forget "shelved" - have they said anything about opening one in the first place?
 

Starmill

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Again, forget "shelved" - have they said anything about opening one in the first place?
They haven't put forward a detailed policy platform as yet if that's what you mean no. Why would train services be the top priority for that, when we don't yet have a clue when the new government could take office?
 

JonathanH

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I doubt there are many votes in HS2 or anything even peripherally associated with it now.
On the contrary, there are votes for the Reform Party which would hang on the immediate cancellation of Phase 1 of HS2, let alone anything involving Manchester, which I think remains their policy.

Scrap the bloated vanity project HS2 saving £100 billion, of which £50 billion would be spent on infrastructure in the North-East and North-West, resulting in a £50 billion net saving.

Some people believe this stuff and vote accordingly.
 
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eldomtom2

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They haven't put forward a detailed policy platform as yet if that's what you mean no. Why would train services be the top priority for that, when we don't yet have a clue when the new government could take office?
The point is that the idea of Labour commissioning a review into rail that will say "we need to build Phase 2" is nothing but a fantasy at the moment.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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It was only a matter of days ago when news broke that the Labour Party was "shelving" the £28 billion pledge of green matters should they be elected as the next Government, so why do you think that they will view railways any differently to that?
There appears to have been confusion in the mind of a contributor, who for some strange unknown reason read the emboldened part of my original posting above as referring to a £28 billion pledge on some railway matter.... o_O <(
 

Starmill

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The point is that the idea of Labour commissioning a review into rail that will say "we need to build Phase 2" is nothing but a fantasy at the moment.
Equally a fantasy to believe the current Tory policy is going to stick around.

There appears to have been confusion in the mind of a contributor, who for some strange unknown reason read the emboldened part of my original posting above as referring to a £28 billion pledge on some railway matter.... o_O <(
I don't think anyone thought that.
 

eldomtom2

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Equally a fantasy to believe the current Tory policy is going to stick around.
Yes, obviously Labour will have a rail policy that differs in at least some areas to that of the Tories. That doesn't mean that rail policy will inherently involve reinstating Phase 2, however.
 

Starmill

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Yes, obviously Labour will have a rail policy that differs in at least some areas to that of the Tories. That doesn't mean that rail policy will inherently involve reinstating Phase 2, however.
Of course not. By definition given they don't want to commit to it unless they find it works well.
 

The Ham

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Yes, obviously Labour will have a rail policy that differs in at least some areas to that of the Tories. That doesn't mean that rail policy will inherently involve reinstating Phase 2, however.

I doubt many would expect all of phase 2 to be reinstated (including Leeds), what many have suggested is that boss will be used (but certainly not called HS2) where there's a need.

To further disassociate from HS2 those bits may be added to other new bits (again if there's a need).

I wouldn't be surprised if there was more of a focus on local rail, but with some key elements to remove intercity trains to further improve the local rail offering (for example some new 400m long platforms at Manchester and Liverpool).
 

eldomtom2

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I doubt many would expect all of phase 2 to be reinstated (including Leeds), what many have suggested is that bits will be used (but certainly not called HS2) where there's a need.

To further disassociate from HS2 those bits may be added to other new bits (again if there's a need).
People have claimed a lot of things, including that HS2 is the only solution to the problems facing capacity on the WCML etc. I'm just asking people to temper their expectations.
 

GJMarshy

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I think the notion of 400m trains north of Birmingham is a bit moot without the captive HS2 stations.

My best guess is north of Birmingham stock will be limited to 260m, with the side effect of needing more trains, thereby meaning less space for to Scotland etc.

Balancing act!
 

Meerkat

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Was the tunnel under Crewe part of 2a, or did 2a just do pre tunnel junctions to leave as passive for 2b?
 

The Ham

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The bard himself would have penned a thought on what has occurred.....2b or not 2b, that is the question... :D

Interestingly, if you look at the regional rail use for 2022/23 (so about a year ago now), from 2009 to 2023 the HS2 model anticipated growth to 136 passengers for every 100 in 2009 whilst the current achieved is:

Northeast 147
Northwest 128
Yorkshire and the Humber 128
West Midlands 123
East Midlands 100 (i.e. no increase since 2009)
Scotland 220

Based on those increases it's reasonable that the East Midlands was cut, however it does imply that getting to Scotland is a priority.

Although, that increases don't show the whole picture. Not least London/Scotland was starting from a low base. In terms of actual passenger numbers the current flows are:

Northeast 2.8 million
Northwest 8.4 million
Yorkshire and the Humber 7.2 million
West Midlands 9.8 million
East Midlands 7.9 million
Scotland 3.2 million

That does imply that going beyond the West Midlands to the west does make sense with at least as many again heading beyond Birmingham as to Birmingham (not least because Birmingham ≠ West Midlands).

Even if HS2 doesn't extend to the East, it would (by providing capacity for Scottish travel) ease congestion on the ECML to serve Yorkshire & the Humber as well as the Northeast more than it currently does.

Whist when compared to pre COVID the numbers are a mix again (pre COVID peak=100, with numbers below meaning a gap and numbers above meaning a rise):

Northeast 107
Northwest 74
Yorkshire and the Humber 94
West Midlands 68
East Midlands 81
Scotland 125
 

WAO

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I think that those figures just show that LNER is best at pulling in customers.

WAO
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Speculation today that the Northern Mayors are looking to rebadge Network North to further their joint rail interests, rather than demand reinstatement of the HS2 plans.
In some ways you'd expect them to do that, with their more local focus and disinterest in national policy.
The paper (Yorkshire Post) would also focus on local interests.
But they are right that they could work together to secure the Liverpool-Hull corridor they all want, and lobby for things like MML electrification to improve regional connections.
Food for thought, particularly for Louise Haigh as shadow Transport Secretary who will likely have to wrestle with this issue (among many others) by the end of the year.
It is all a long way from the sound and fury that accompanied Mr Sunak’s announcement about the Manchester leg and later that afternoon Shadow Levelling Up Secretary Angela Rayner also declined to commit to restoring the HS2 route when questioned about it on stage by event host Clive Myrie.

It was equally interesting that Ms Brabin cited the work done by Mr Burnham and Liverpool City Region mayor Steve Rotheram with the Department for Transport to secure a potential £12bn for transport improvements between Manchester and Liverpool. She suggested a similar collaboration between herself and Mr Coppard could bear fruit on this side of the Pennines and claimed Shadow Transport Secretary (and Yorkshire MP) Louise Haigh is keen on the concept.

It appears Labour’s politicians are on something of a journey when it comes to transport improvements in the North as their party nears government. At the moment, the likely destination appears to be a rebadged version of Network North rather than a return to HS2.
 

richard_S

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There is a cheap alternative to the Liverpool to Man Picc. There was a line from Picc that ran from Ardwick Jnc to Midland Jnc, This has not been built on it would enable a route to Liverpool and possibly some other destinations. This would take some trains off the Castlefield corridor. There a a lot of pinch points in the North which could be fixed. The big one is north of Crewe where the lines go from 4 to 2. Money spent on this would provide more paths between the North and the South. Providing a new freight terminal at Carrington (this would provide jobs in the area) linking this terminal to Skelton junction and further up the line to Stockport putting in a chord to link to Cheadle Hulme which would connect to the WCML. Also a link from the rail freight terminal extend the line to the line to Flixton and onward to link to Trafford Park Rail freight terminal. This would enable freight to run to/from Manchester to the ECML.
 

The Planner

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There is a cheap alternative to the Liverpool to Man Picc. There was a line from Picc that ran from Ardwick Jnc to Midland Jnc, This has not been built on it would enable a route to Liverpool and possibly some other destinations. This would take some trains off the Castlefield corridor. There a a lot of pinch points in the North which could be fixed. The big one is north of Crewe where the lines go from 4 to 2. Money spent on this would provide more paths between the North and the South. Providing a new freight terminal at Carrington (this would provide jobs in the area) linking this terminal to Skelton junction and further up the line to Stockport putting in a chord to link to Cheadle Hulme which would connect to the WCML. Also a link from the rail freight terminal extend the line to the line to Flixton and onward to link to Trafford Park Rail freight terminal. This would enable freight to run to/from Manchester to the ECML.
You have to then get that traffic through Victoria and across Ordsall Lane, which when you factor in TRU is challenging to say the least.
There are no plans to 4 track Winsford to Weaver, resignalling is about the best that will happen to get the headway down a bit.
To put a chord in to get freight towards Cheadle Hulme is barking, there isnt the capacity unless you remove Stockport from passenger trains and send them via Styal. Thats also ignoring the single line from Skelton too. There are still two planned freight terminals at Parkside and Port Salford.
 

Greybeard33

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Carrington site is a possibility.
The linked webpage says that the Carrington terminal is a proposal by the voluntary campaign group Railfuture. AFAIK this proposal is not endorsed by the Rail Freight Group or any other rail industry body.
 

Halifaxlad

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The linked webpage says that the Carrington terminal is a proposal by the voluntary campaign group Railfuture. AFAIK this proposal is not endorsed by the Rail Freight Group or any other rail industry body.

It might not be edorsed by considering a new facility could allow the closure of Trafford park which would work well with United plans to build a new stadium!
 

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