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I did it last year on the 1st September and it's packed to Swansea, fairly busy to Carmarthen, pretty empty to Tenby, then you have the train pretty much to yourself to Pembroke Dock.
The last two times I've been travelling on the 17:30 out of Waterloo recently it's been an 8 car 450 again, it was nice whilst a 10 car 444 lasted on it.