Building HS2 to Euston and Crewe could pay for itself, analysis finds

[AndrewE]

Building HS2 to Euston and Crewe could pay for itself, analysis finds

Extending high-speed line at both ends would let government charge more for rights to run it, rail leaders say

www.theguardian.com

Building HS2 all the way to London Euston and Crewe could save the government money by enabling it to lease the line out for much more, rail industry leaders have told ministers, as the Treasury weighs up whether to fund tunnels to central London.

The High Speed Rail Group proposes selling the rights to run the line as a long-term concession – on a similar basis to the HS1 rail route linking the capital to the Channel tunnel.


Such a concession would be worth about £20bn if fully developed from central London and joining lines to northern cities, but just a fraction of that under current plans to terminate at Old Oak Common and Birmingham, according to an analysis for HSRG.

The coalition of rail and engineering companies, whose members include Hitachi, Alstom, Siemens and Avanti West Coast, argues that spending billions more now to reach Euston and Crewe would still save the Treasury £3.5bn in the long run.

The claims come as the government decides whether to reinstate tunnelling work to Euston...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Seem the Euston end is looking favourable acvording to Standard

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...secretary-louise-haigh-confirms-b1186492.html

The HS2 high speed line will go to Euston, Transport Secretary Louise Haigh signalled on Tuesday.
She said an announcement would be made soon, expected at the October 30 Budget

As to when who knows but its common sense.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It's just the lobby groups getting their oars in hoping to influence the Chancellor's decisions.
None of it amounts to a properly updated business case.
Nobody knows even the cost of completing OOC-Curzon St yet.
Since last week there's a whole new set of influential faces in No 10 to convince as well.

 

[jfollows]

I agree, I don’t believe the Guardian article, but then I don’t believe any costings related to HS2 anyway. In my opinion it needed to be built for other reasons and the line to Euston should go ahead now that a considerable amount of work, money and disruption has already been incurred. Had it been Old Oak Common only from the start, fair enough, but it wasn’t.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree, I don’t believe the Guardian article, but then I don’t believe any costings related to HS2 anyway. In my opinion it needed to be built for other reasons and the line to Euston should go ahead now that a considerable amount of work, money and disruption has already been incurred. Had it been Old Oak Common only from the start, fair enough, but it wasn’t.

If it had been OOC from the start I'd have strongly opposed it, personally. The idea of putting railway termini in an outer suburb of destination cities just doesn't make sense, because you lose your speed benefit very quickly. The Thais are at it too, and it doesn't make sense there either.

(It matters less in places that are primarily origins, but you could hardly level that at London)

 

[swt_passenger]

BBC version of the story here, although didn’t this story first appear a week ago, I’m sure it’s been seen in another thread:

The HS2 railway line is likely to be extended to London Euston, the Transport Secretary has signalled.

Louise Haigh said "it would make absolutely no sense" to have the high-speed route terminate at Old Oak Common in west London.

Her comments come after work to expand Euston station to accommodate HS2 was halted by the previous Conservative government last year because of the mounting costs.

Haigh told BBC Radio 5Live a decision on where HS2 will end would be "clear soon", with an announcement set to be made around the time of the Budget on 30 October.

Troubled HS2 may now run to central London, minister says

The Transport Secretary says it would make "no sense" to have the line terminate in west London.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Allwinter_Kit]

Thing is that you could say this about any part of HS2 except (from my memory of it all) the bit that's definitely being built. The legs to Manchester and Leeds had the best business case and the bit from London to Brum had the weaker. So you could quite happily argue that restoring the eastern leg would "cost the government less" than not doing so.

 

[HSTEd]

However, building on to Euston and Crewe, while costing another £11.5bn, could make it worth £20bn.

Given that even HS2 admitted (before cancellation) to a cost of up to £7bn for Phase 2A, I am extraordinarily skeptical that it is feasible to deliver anything like Crewe and Euston for £11.5bn.
I think its more likely to be double that.

This just sounds like the usual suspects trying to restart the conveyer belt of money into the bottomless pit.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Thing is that you could say this about any part of HS2 except (from my memory of it all) the bit that's definitely being built. The legs to Manchester and Leeds had the best business case and the bit from London to Brum had the the weaker. So you could quite happily argue that restoring the eastern leg would "cost the government less" than not doing so.

None of should have been built over improving public transport in our regional cities first but having started it a half baked solution isn't the right outcome. Also getting Euston built by opening should be goal but suspect that the agreement to build will be a 2030s opening to ease cash pressures and keep funds available for other projects.

 

[slowroad]

None of should have been built over improving public transport in our regional cities first but having started it a half baked solution isn't the right outcome. Also getting Euston built by opening should be goal but suspect that the agreement to build will be a 2030s opening to ease cash pressures and keep funds available for other projects.

I’m sure this has been answered before, but given the limited service now planned for HS2 and the fact that OOC is now over-specified, could you get away with a smaller Euston by turning back a proportion (1/3?) at OOC? Not perfect but might get costs down - and some passengers will of course prefer OOC.

 

[Allwinter_Kit]

Depends if you think the current cut-bsck HS2 is all that we'll ever build or if you think that Manchester and then Leeds (and thence maybe Scotland) might be back on the table in the future.

If the latter, then restricting Euston now will massively add cost to any future project and probably limit capacity for decades to come. If you want to free up capacity on ECML, WCML and MML through removing LDHS services for freight, regional and local traffic, even in 20 years.... then no, you should bulld Euston in full, properly, once.

 

[Chester1]

Are the suggested concession values based on a 30 year contract? It's not necessarily a bad idea. HS1 will be handed back to the government in 16 years time after paying a substantial chunk of its construction costs.

 

[jackdoyle]

LBC are reporting this morning that the government plan to reverse the decision to scrap Phase 2a of HS2.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/hs2-london-euston-to-crewe-labour/

The troubled HS2 rail line will now run from London Euston to Crewe in a move soon to be announced by the Government, LBC understands.

According to sources close to the project, Ministers have re-evaluated the cost-benefit of HS2 and concluded the line should continue beyond Birmingham.

It would reverse a decision made by the then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at his party's conference last year.

The route was originally scheduled to connect London, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds, but was scaled back by the previous Conservative government who scrapped 'Phase 2’.

Phase 2a was to connect the West Midlands to Crewe, whilst ‘Phase 2b’ was from Crewe to Manchester.

LBC understands that Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to reverse the change to 'Phase 2a', as the route already has parliamentary approval - meaning the line will run from the capital beyond Birmingham to Crewe.

Insiders have told LBC that the Prime Minister held private discussions on the matter at last month's Labour Party conference and that the government had been planning to make a formal announcement in the new year.

 

[Elecman]

Also being reported on other news channels too. Excellent news and thank goodness common sense has prevailed

 

[Royston Vasey]

Great news although more a case of sanity prevails. I should think it was bleeding obvious category that a 100 mile high speed line terminating miles and miles from London was always going to be a ridiculous concept that nobody would use over the conventional alternative. It was cancelled purely for political expediency by an incompetent, corrupt and failed government, that knew it wouldn't have to deal with the consequences of cancellation and knew it never set aside any money for it anyway.

Labour have cocked up a few things in their first few months but Shadow GBR and now this decision are not in that bucket. Now for Phase 2b - even if that's an evolution of the Arup/Burnham proposal.

 

[zwk500]

Great news although more a case of sanity prevails. I should think it was bleeding obvious category that a 100 mile high speed line terminating miles and miles from London was always going to be a ridiculous concept that nobody would use over the conventional alternative. It was cancelled purely for political expediency by an incompetent, corrupt and failed government, that knew it wouldn't have to deal with the consequences of cancellation and knew it never set aside any money for it anyway.

Labour have cocked up a few things in their first few months but Shadow GBR and now this decision are not in that bucket. Now for Phase 2b - even if that's an evolution of the Arup/Burnham proposal.

If anything, Handsacre-Crewe was even more stupid not to build than OOC-Euston. Dumping all you 360kph traffic on to the Trent Valley to fight through the Colwich and Shugborough bottleneck was always a ridiculous decision and I'm glad it looks likely to be reversed.
Now if only we can get the bit actually into Manchester (re-?) authorised to take the pressure of Slade lane jn and Stockport...

 

[Bletchleyite]

If anything, Handsacre-Crewe was even more stupid not to build than OOC-Euston. Dumping all you 360kph traffic on to the Trent Valley to fight through the Colwich and Shugborough bottleneck was always a ridiculous decision and I'm glad it looks likely to be reversed.
Now if only we can get the bit actually into Manchester (re-?) authorised to take the pressure of Slade lane jn and Stockport...

Certainly we need 400m units to Manchester, however that is achieved. A decrease in capacity with a massively improved service is just going to turn it into another XC (or a situation where, if compulsory reservation applies, you have to book months in advance to get on at all).

 

[nlogax]

If true then thank (insert deity here). A return to sanity and some actual light at the end of this long and confusing HS2 tunnel.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Just remember that there was a serious risk of cancellation to Euston, despite having done all the design, consenting, contracting and even having tunnelling machines delivered to site, this rumoured decancellation* of Ph2a could easily be recancelled* so perhaps we should save our celebrations until the project has got past the last possible point where ultracancellation* is still a possibility.

*I thought we needed a few extra words in the dictionary to cope with UK mismanagement of major projects.

 

[alex17595]

Are there any plans anywhere available to look at for the upgrade (if there is one) of Crewe station for HS2?

 

[Rail Ranger]

Running three 200m trains per hour from Euston to Manchester via HS2 to Crewe and then on the existing line to Manchester actually provides around the same number of seats as at present. The HS2 sets will have 550 seats. A 9-car Pendolino has 469 seats and an 11-car has 607 seats. Obviously doesn't allow for growth in passenger numbers due to faster journey times. Also presumably standing will not be allowed on HS2 trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Running three 200m trains per hour from Euston to Manchester via HS2 to Crewe and then on the existing line to Manchester actually provides around the same number of seats as at present.

Which was the failure with XC. The "sparks effect" of HS2 will be massive. I would think passenger numbers increases on day one of 20-30% not unthinkable. Look at what the Lizzie achieved - it'll be like that.

There has to be a massive capacity increase, or it'll either be overcrowded or "sold out" will appear against almost every train.

 

[Rail Ranger]

If they don't allow standing it won't be overcrowded.

 

[Bletchleyite]

If they don't allow standing it won't be overcrowded.

Indeed. But then you'll end up with the other problem, namely being unable to get on it at all. They're both problems, just in different ways. Therefore, there needs to be enough capacity, which means 400m trains to Manchester.

 

[The Planner]

Are there any plans anywhere available to look at for the upgrade (if there is one) of Crewe station for HS2?

Unless money is found for it as part of whatever solution is proposed for 2A, there is no upgrade for Crewe. It got binned when 2A originally did.

 

[Rail Ranger]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think I read that the Basford Hall and Independent lines resignalling this Christmas does make provision for HS2 Phase 2a joining the WCML in the Basford Hall area.

 

[signed]

Deleted

 

[zwk500]

There has to be a massive capacity increase, or it'll either be overcrowded or "sold out" will appear against almost every train.

100% this. Demand regularly exceeds capacity today. The whole point of investing in new infrastructure to run more trains is to provide more capacity, and therefore we either have to run more or longer trains to Manchester than present.

 

[twpsaesneg]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think I read that the Basford Hall and Independent lines resignalling this Christmas does make provision for HS2 Phase 2a joining the WCML in the Basford Hall area.

No, it doesn't. That was a completely different project within Crewe Programme, called Crewe Southern Connection.

 

[Rail Ranger]

Perhaps "passive provision" would be more accurate then? This interesting article about the Basford Hall and Independent Lines resignalling does say that provision is being made for the junction with HS2 Phase 2a: https://www.railengineer.co.uk/crewe-basford-hall-and-independent-lines-resignalling/ However it looks like the scheme has since been reduced in scope.