Do any TfL bus routes make a profit?

[MotCO]

The comment in this month's Buses magazine that route 477 (Dartford to Orpington) is commercial but under threat made me wonder do any TfL routes cover their costs or make a profit? All the tenders I have seen are at a cost to TfL, but presumably TfL are taking all the fares, so it is not easy to see if any are run at a profit.

So, do any cover their costs, and which route makes the biggest overall profit for TfL (i.e. fares exceed contract price by the greatest amount)?

 

[RJ]

I don't think this information is in the public domain or FOIable, but there are places and markets within London where a commercial operation could succeed.

 

[Enthusiast]

Arriva announced yesterday that the 477 will continue to run but with a reduced service frequency from the autumn. In April the route had been cut back from Bluewater Shopping Centre to run from Orpington to Dartford only.

 

[RT4038]

I don't think this information is in the public domain or FOIable, but there are places and markets within London where a commercial operation could succeed.

That is not quite the same as 'Are any TfL bus routes profitable'? The answer is probably - unlikely, due to a combination of high costs, high network density meaning few routes not paralleled at least in part by others, high levels of service over a long span of day and low fares.

 

[Snow1964]

That is not quite the same as 'Are any TfL bus routes profitable'? The answer is probably - unlikely, due to a combination of high costs, high network density meaning few routes not paralleled at least in part by others, high levels of service over a long span of day and low fares.

I vaguely remember about four years ago someone attempted to answer it, and put the TfL passenger usage numbers per route (from an annual survey) in a spreadsheet, along with the operated mileage (from route performance data ?), and cost per mile (from TfL tender webpage) for something like 100 busiest routes. Sorry can’t find it now.

At the time they estimated about 20-25 routes were profitable, but it used the figure of about 70p average fare (which used to be published in the quarterly finance report before they got simplified)

Might be none since Covid and decreased passengers