Effect of US tariffs on the UK rail industry?

[jfowkes]

Without getting into the wider pros and cons of the tariffs the US is about to impose, and without too much criticism of the US president and administration (not that it isn't deserved, but there's a thread in general discussion for that!):

What will the likely effects, if any, be of the tariffs on the UK rail industry?

 

[Russel]

Does the UK export much rail related trade to the US?

 

[fishwomp]

Does the UK export much rail related trade to the US?

Fixed it for you..

We were a strong exporter of rail technology (inventors of SSI in 1980s), healthy exporter via Brush, English Electric etc in 60's., but unless you want to buy a legal framework for operating railways as a network of 2,000 different companies, you are out of luck today.

At least, that's my perception, if we still have healthy exports, it'd be good to talk them up once in a while.

I did read 150 wagons are to be made here for Ireland. Beat that, Hitachi, CAF, Siemens etc!

 

[furnessvale]

I believe the OP is referring to traffics like Range Rovers and Minis to Southampton Docks.

If the tariffs bite, then reductions in US sales will certainly affect those trains.

 

[fishwomp]

I believe the OP is referring to traffics like Range Rovers and Minis to Southampton Docks.

If the tariffs bite, then reductions in US sales will certainly affect those trains.

Ah. Yes, that's surely going to see impact - around 20% of those cars that are exported, by value, By volume - I would expect it to be lower - Toyota and Nissan say, already have US factories.. premium cars are the ones that'll suffer. Haven't seen a train of Rolls Royces..!

Can't think of much else - auto is number two export, by value, behind pharmaceutical.
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nati.../articles/uktradewiththeunitedstates2023/2023

 

[Zomboid]

I don't think it'll have much of a direct impact, but it remains to be seen what the effect will be on the wider economy, which will affect the rail industry in a lot of ways.
There's also the response that both our and the various governments around the world will choose. It remains to be seen what that will be and what effect that will have on the UK.
Any reduction in exports to the US will probably reduce rail freight traffic to some extent, but as the UK is at the low end of the tariffs, we may see that the US prefers to import from the UK rather than China, if there's any crossover in what we make, so it may actually increase traffic in that way.

 

[Class15]

Container trains to Southampton will likely be reduced. Can’t think of much else.

 

[jon0844]

Re

Container trains to Southampton will likely be reduced. Can’t think of much else.

Surely there will be just as many Range Rovers as ever - namely stolen ones being shipped out quick!

 

[jfowkes]

I believe the OP is referring to traffics like Range Rovers and Minis to Southampton Docks.

If the tariffs bite, then reductions in US sales will certainly affect those trains.

I'm not referring to anything in particular.

I don't pretend to understand global trade at all, but I know it's complex and dynamic and contains hidden relationships that even experts struggle to see.

I'm genuinely curious with no particular mind as to a particular sector or aspect of the industry.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Coming the other way, Drax is fed largely by wood chips from the USA to UK ports, then railed to Drax.
If we get to a quid pro quo with tariffs, I could see that traffic being disrupted.
There will be some UK professional consultancy services provided to the USA, but services don't seem to be affected by Trump's tariff regime.

Canadian Pacific (now Canadian Pacific Kansas City) has spent the last decade or so reorienting its network on a Canada-US-Mexico axis, following the NAFTA free trade agreement.
That business plan looks very vulnerable just now.

 

[fishwomp]

Coming the other way, Drax is fed largely by wood chips from the USA to UK ports, then railed to Drax.
If we get to a quid pro quo with tariffs, I could see that traffic being disrupted.

I think unlikely - compared to the oil type fuels imported from America, taxing a "green"-ish/er fuel alone would be bad optics. Taxing fuel in general would increase our energy costs, except if the Middle East could fill the gap, and so be further economic suicide.

You just reminded of the 1930s when Ireland UK had a trade war .. "Burn everything English except their coal" (although the phrase dates back far far longer)..

Bourbon, pick up trucks and tractors would be my expected candidates..

 

[Bald Rick]

Bourbon, pick up trucks and tractors would be my expected candidates..

Hopefully US beer too.

 

[fgwrich]

Hopefully US beer too.

Indeed.

Although the thread is predominately talking about exports, I wonder how most of the operators of the La Grange / Muncie and London Ontario (the good bit) built locos are feeling of late. Progress Rail, aka EMD, aren’t exactly known for their rapid lead times for components to be shipped over from the US at the best of times.