HS4. Will the Highspeed network expand further?

[HSTEd]

Class 395s or if you can secure routes into the termini then you could use things like TWINDEXX Express (230km/h top speed apparently) to get more capacity.

 

[Class 170101]

Which of the following should happen soonest?
1, London to Bristol then Swansea or Devon.
2, Same but from Birmingham instead of London.
3, London to Brighton then Southampton.
4, Norwich to Liverpool via Sheffield.
5, Edinburgh to Glasgow.
6, A Belfast link via an undersea tunnel.
7, London bypass between HS1 & HS2.
8, An upgrade to a current mainline.

First would be 2.
Then 1.
I wouldn't bother with 3. or 4.
5. would be third in line but like deltic above I also think it would only be worthwhile with HS2 from Manchester or Leeds to the Central Belt unless there was a severe capacity problem between Glasgow and Edinburgh that needed to be tackled.
6. For reasons explained elsewhere it would be better being a Holyhead to Dublin link but I reckon would take nearly 20 years to build so not viable.
7. Probably needed but I would prefer to build this instead of Euston 'High Level' with a High Speed underground station for Euston instead.
8. No chance given whats already been said in reasoning to those who would prefer further upgrades for the WCML instead of HS2.

 

[NotATrainspott]

5. would be third in line but like deltic above I also think it would only be worthwhile with HS2 from Manchester or Leeds to the Central Belt unless there was a severe capacity problem between Glasgow and Edinburgh that needed to be tackled.

EGIP represents the last worthwhile upgrade of the classic railways between Glasgow and Edinburgh. For any extra capacity beyond this, the least unrealistic option is some form of new line because the other lines are not capable of the same end-to-end journey time and all current lines are better used to serve intermediate markets like Falkirk, Airdrie or Livingston.

 

[alwaystouchout]

I guess it depends on what the point of HS is?

A) Connect the major cities with London and each other
B) Relieve existing lines
C) Both?

HS1 is unique in that it primarily connects the SE to the European HS network, but has the additional benefit of providing regional HS services in Kent. HS2 is about connecting some of the largest cities whilst relieving capacity on existing lines. On the basis of A) the next logical route would be connecting Bristol/South Wales to the HS network, either to London or a cross-country route to Birmingham. On the basis of C) the BML and/or SWML would be a suitable candidate given its congestion.

 

[HSTEd]

If we assume a line laid out for ~250km/h - then the BML/SWML line might be able to reach Bournemouth fast enough to justify going even further (all the way to Exeter).
Depends if you can get enough paths to allow for nearly non stop runs at least as far as Southampton.

Also I am not even sure you would stop all trains at Gatwick any more - since the obvious stop for an OOC like thing is Clapham Junction, indeed it basically is what OOC is meant to become.

 

[Grimsby town]

I think that the Birmingham to Bristol and ECML (London to Leeds) high speed are most likely to happen as they are going to be relatively cheap due to their fairly rural nature.

The problem with a South London high speed line is the sheer population density which would make it so expensive.

London to Bristol is not really needed for capacity reasons. The current HST's have around 550 seats at the most (most only around 490) compared to the class 800/1 which will have around 630. This could probably be boosted to 700 by making all the 9 car trains 10 car. If more capacity is needed Oxford trains could maybe provided by HS2 once High speed East Coast is open. From speed angle. The GWML can be upgraded to provide higher speeds if freight can be diverted / looped. Some new build track may be needed but not a whole new line.

My plan for High Speed East Coast would be a line following the East Coast Mainline but further to the East until Peterborough and West afterwards. There would be branches as either upgraded classic lines or new lines to Cambridge, Leicester, Lincoln, Nottingham and Hull. With the line dividing around Micklefield, going west to Leeds, east to Hull or North to York.

 

[HSTEd]

The GWML upgrade programme has got itself to the point where it is going to hit the same problems as the WCRM did.
There will likely be no further upgrades after the electrification project.

 

[edwin_m]

I wonder if the intermediate stations on the GWML are too important to permit a high speed route, which would probably bypass most of them. I have the impression that Reading, Didcot and Swindon generate as much patronage on a Bristol or South Wales train as further west. In which case a direct line to Bristol and Cardiff would only carry half the passengers. This is a bit different from the WCML where trains from London to Birmingham and Manchester with few intermediate stops still tend to load well.

I suppose this argument could be turned on its head, and if the GWML got to capacity one way round it would be to take the Bristol and South Wales passengers onto a HS line. But I agree we're not there yet.

 

[HSTEd]

Also I note that even at 140-150mph a high speed line on the London-Brighton-Southampton/Bournemouth-Weymouth-Exeter corridor could still beat the conventional trains to Exeter.

That would significantly reduce the capacity crunch on the GWML if all the Penzance/Paignton/(Plymouth maybe even?) trains disappeared.

The Southern Options are all crippled by the South Downs National Park though, the Brighton route probably has it best because it can approach it at a very narrow necklike region near Brighton and then 'hug' development (making intermediate stations more useful) along the coast to stay out of it, rather than doglegging out west of the M3.

GWML should be good for a while, we have to go for the capacity crunch regions first.

 

[ian959]

I would think that assuming HS3 gets built from Liverpool to Leeds (and hopefully onto York and Hull) then logically HS4 should be Plymouth - Exeter - Bristol - Birmingham - Sheffield - York - Newcastle. Picks up a core cross country route.

HS5 would be Plymouth - Exeter - Southampton - Gatwick - Waterloo or something similar, with a spur Southampton - Brighton - Ashford. This would significantly ease congestion on the GWML and provide faster journey times to London from the south west and south. Brighton to Gatwick would probably be better served by a significantly upgraded BML.

 

[HSTEd]

The BML appears so overloaded that an upgrade would make the WCRM look like a picnic.

 

[alwaystouchout]

The BML appears so overloaded that an upgrade would make the WCRM look like a picnic.

What actually are the most congested lines at the moment?

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

What actually are the most congested lines at the moment?

Commuter lines into various cities like London or Glasgow.
For longer distance I'd say routes around Birmingham, Derby, Leeds and Manchester.
Also Peterborough, York, Preston, Doncaster, Reading all are busy with cross country or intercity style trains and aren't on HS2.

 

[muddythefish]

London to Cornwall and Birmingham to the south west linking with HS2 and following the M5 would be my choice.

Cornwall is a relatively poor county and would benefit enormously from better communications. A high-speed line to the region would be transformative.

Norwich - Birmingham would be good too. The rail journey at present is far too slow.

Agree that HS2 and 3 should be just the start of high-speed network covering the whole country.

 

[adrock1976]

Which of the following should happen soonest?
1, London to Bristol then Swansea or Devon.
2, Same but from Birmingham instead of London.
3, London to Brighton then Southampton.
4, Norwich to Liverpool via Sheffield.
5, Edinburgh to Glasgow.
6, A Belfast link via an undersea tunnel.
7, London bypass between HS1 & HS2.
8, An upgrade to a current mainline.

I would have 5 running from Glasgow to Newcastle with HS stations at College Goods Yard (Glasgow - to interchange with local rail services and Glasgow Crossrail), Newbridge (Edinburgh - for interchange with the airport and tram/local rail network), and somewhere in Newcastle to interchange with local rail and metro services. This line should be constructed at the same time as HS2 from London - Birmingham, therefore is ranked top of the list.

I would have 1 and 2 together as part of the same project, and to be constructed after HS2 and Glasgow - Edinburgh - Newcastle has been started, making this my second preference.

I would rank 6 as last, with 3 being the penultimate route to be constructed.

I am undecided at the moment regarding the other options in which order I would rank them, due to my brain being mushed with 12 hour night shifts at the moment.

In peace

Adam

 

[HSTEd]

The SWML/BML line has the advantage that the capacity of the line increases at reduced speed (at least in the HSR speed regime).
It seems likely that a 230-250km/h line would have something like 33 paths/hour (compared to HS2's 21).
Even with variable stopping patterns that makes it feasible to have ~20 trains per hour.

So you get HS2 level capacity while preserving higher end to end average speeds (compared to classic routes) with intermediate stops.

I make it something like ~230 miles in ~100 minutes if you were able to run non stop to Exeter after Clapham Junction. (Depending on the route, Assuming Southampton is on a spur and you have an immersed tunnel under Southampton Water.
That is quite a bit faster than Paddington-Exeter.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Just a thought here for High Speed to Brighton:
Would cancelling cross London Thameslink trains from Bedford to Brighton and having them end at London. Then have Midland Mainline trains running to Gatwick Airport then Brighton at slow speed like HS1 is like on the Kent coast line instead be a good idea?

I never been down to South coast (except SW) and it looks awkward to get to those areas from North of England by train or road.
I think an HST going there once an hour would improve connectivity.
Or is this idea of mine silly?

 

[The Ham]

Given the rate of passenger growth is just shy of 25% since the announcement to develope HS2 in 2009 (which based on the annual growth rate used for justifying HS2 would have been reached in 2018, so we're a few years ahead of where we should be) it is likely that further new limes will be required.

Even if they don't have the distances required to justify high speed journeys it is likely that many of the requirements would be used on such a new line. For instance, even trying to have the route as straight as possible so as to avoid problems with tight bends (such as curved platforms) and to minimise land take and journey times.

 

[alwaystouchout]

Just a thought here for High Speed to Brighton:
Would cancelling cross London Thameslink trains from Bedford to Brighton and having them end at London. Then have Midland Mainline trains running to Gatwick Airport then Brighton at slow speed like HS1 is like on the Kent coast line instead be a good idea?

I never been down to South coast (except SW) and it looks awkward to get to those areas from North of England by train or road.
I think an HST going there once an hour would improve connectivity.
Or is this idea of mine silly?

Rather than canceling cross-city Thameslink trains wouldn't it be a better idea to restore the former XC service to Brighton? I'm sure there used to be a service from Manchester during the Virgin XC era which either used the West London Line, or avoided London entirely via Reading and Guildford.

 

[NSEFAN]

Once upon a time, there were Intercity services to various destinations along the South East coastline. As the railway has moved away from "one-a-day" services to clockface timetables, these have gradually been phased out. Operation Princess tried to please everyone, but it had to be scaled back because of abysmal reliability. Any new high speed railway would almost certainly be operating as a clockface timetable system between transport hubs, rather than another all-shacks Yarmouth-Barmouth railway.