This is getting more and more surreal. So thousands of people who now catch a direct train every day instead face longer journeys and either have to double back to catch the NPR or face a 15 minute walk across Warrington. Seems like a great use of £17Bn.
Examination of adjacent stations suggests Liverpool South Parkway has a few hundred thousand passengers per year not on Merseyrail (although I don't have the ODM matrix to make sure). These passengers are spread across trains north, south and west. I would not be surprised if the number of passengers actually travelling to stations east of Warrington is comparatively small.
Whilst I am not saying noone will lose out, I expect the vastly improved local service to outweigh the comparatively small number.
If the walk turns out to be an issue, comparatively inexpensive solutions are available to improve the links between the two stations.
EDIT:
However, the fastest/slowest train time differential for Warrington Central-Manchester is only ~11 minutes. In essence, we'd be comparing four/five trains/trams per hour at 30 minutes vs two trains per hout at 20. The current stopper takes long enough to barely matter.
For Warrington West, it goes from one train per hour to Manchester now to 4 trains to Warrington Central, then 4/5 from there to Manchester.
For South parkway, there is an hourly 13 minute train direct to Lime Street, or four hourly 19 minute trains (with a walk from Central). They can then board the 25 minute fast train to Manchester and arrive in about ~46-47 minutes. Comparable to the ~40-42 minute current time, but at higher frequency.
Presumably they will have to find a way to squeeze in the current TPE South and East Midland Trains services on the Chat Moss line, or is Liverpool going to lose even more of its direct services?
They could always be squeezed in, but they would have to take the role of the all station stoppers on the Chat Moss.
The journey time advantage of the new line would be substantial and almost everyone would probably take the fast train to Piccadilly and change.
But I guess if people want to, we coudl do that and they could avoid changing trains.
And Liverpool will get an even slower Birmingham service to fill in for the local services that will be lost. All to knock a few minutes off Lime Street to Piccadilly journey times.
The major benefit would be enabling an enormous increase in shorter distance traffic on the Chat Moss and CLC lines, as well as an explosion in intercity traffic between Manchester and Liverpool.
Finally, the train would allow you to do Lime Street to Warrington BQ in a few minutes, at which point the Liverpool-Birmingham direct trains can be supplemented via simply changing at Warrington for southbound trains on the WCML. Depending on the vagaries of the timetable that will likely lead to an effective increase in frequency.