Omicron BA.2 variant

[yorkie]

Note: this thread is not to discuss restrictions or anything like that, but simply the variant itself and the impact it has.

The Zoe study is showing cases have been rising for the past week and Tim Spector says what's driving this is the new form of Omicron called BA.2, which is now the majority of cases in Denmark (and probably other places, but Denmark has excellent genomic sequencing so we can be more certain about what's going on there)

Omicron bounces back

According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 159,486 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LF test data from up to three days ago.

covid.joinzoe.com

Another emerging factor is that a new subtype of Omicron is taking over called BA.2, which is likely more infectious. One in 20 new cases had this variant last week, and as it's doubling every few days this should predominate within a month.

08:27 what's been driving those increased new
08:29 cases is a new
08:31 form of omicron
08:33 in the uk
08:35 we have the ba1 form of omicron
08:38 this is a genetic variant of it
08:42 called ba.2...

Potentially increased transmissibility over omicron clade BA.1

U.K. Health Security Agency, VUI

Cases doubling every 4 days

120% growth advantage over original Omicron clade

(Delta to Omicron, 500% growth advantage)

Similar growth, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, India

Does not have the same s-gene target failure on PCR as omicron BA.1

BA.2 is S gene positive

BA.1, 60 mutations

BA.2, 80 mutations

no evidence at all yet that it can evade Omicron (BA.1) immunity or be different to Omicron in any meaningful way

Variants will continue to emerge, but not all variants will be a problem

Only having a transmissibility advantage at this stage of the game (with population immunity so high) isn't a total showstopper

Little difference in vaccine effectiveness between BA.1 and BA.2

Disease severity, comparable to BA.1...

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1484511404786962433

Could BA.2 eventually replace BA.1? Absolutely. Variants will do what they do. However, at the end of the day, this is STILL OMICRON. Remember “Delta Plus?” Yeah, that was all still Delta at the end of the day. Make sure you’re protected. Stay vigilant. Stay calm. This isn’t new.

Out of Denmark: Initial analysis shows NO differences in hospitalizations for BA.2 compared to BA.1. https://en.ssi.dk/news/news/2022/omicron-variant-ba2-accounts-for-almost-half-of-all-danish-omicron-cases H/T: @v_margar

Per Tom: BA.2 is antigenically similar but more transmissible its likely to exacerbate existing Omicron waves- think enhanced/drawn out peaks (such as what we are seeing in Denmark), and delays or even transient reversal of decreases- what it wont do is immediately cause a second equal Omicron wave. For those who are saying France and Denmark are in “another” wave or resurgence. That is incorrect. This IS still their Omicron wave. They didn’t get out of their first wave and then have a reinfection surge with BA.2. BA.2 IS their Omicron wave.

I thought it prudent to post this thread here as no doubt people will hear about this variant and some people are spreading misinformation about it; there is no evidence it is materially different to the BA.1 Omicron, other than it is fitter ("more transmissible").

The evolution of the virus, to adapt for human cells and increase its fitness, is entirely expected and unavoidable; it is nothing to worry about.

 

[brad465]

The ability to detect virus mutations like we have should be a good sign of technological progress. But because new variants are being used by media outlets to whip up fear in order to make money, implement restrictions and provide certain institutions (like central banks) an excuse not to adopt certain business practices that are essential, I view our ability to track viruses like we have been as a form of technology that would be better off not existing (kind of like social media being in some ways a backward step in technology).

Just because we can, doesn't mean we should.

 

[kristiang85]

The ability to detect virus mutations like we have should be a good sign of technological progress. But because new variants are being used by media outlets to whip up fear in order to make money, implement restrictions and provide certain institutions (like central banks) an excuse not to adopt certain business practices that are essential, I view our ability to track viruses like we have been as a form of technology that would be better off not existing (kind of like social media being in some ways a backward step in technology).

Just because we can, doesn't mean we should.

I agree.

 

[nw1]

One does wonder what would have happened in 1999/2000 had there been the same domination of media as there is this winter, and each subtype was analysed and communicated to the same degree of Omicron. "Influenza-99-A", then "Influenza-99-B", "Influenza-99-C" etc - each with the accompanying wave of media panic.

Don't get me wrong, "Influenza-99" (not its real name) was decidedly nasty, I had the thing... but media panic does not help.

 

[LAX54]

Must be coming in via an Aircraft..... BA. 2 is the 1945 JFK to London City, so expect an increase in cases in London !

 

[nw1]

Must be coming in via an Aircraft..... BA. 2 is the 1945 JFK to London City, so expect an increase in cases in London !

Expect an outright ban on travel from the USA very soon.

 

[greyman42]

One does wonder what would have happened in 1999/2000 had there been the same domination of media as there is this winter, and each subtype was analysed and communicated to the same degree of Omicron. "Influenza-99-A", then "Influenza-99-B", "Influenza-99-C" etc - each with the accompanying wave of media panic.

Don't get me wrong, "Influenza-99" (not its real name) was decidedly nasty, I had the thing... but media panic does not help.

I don't think the media panic. They are very calculated in how they put out information in an attempt to panic the public.

 

[Busaholic]

I don't think the media panic. They are very calculated in how they put out information in an attempt to panic the public.

Wow, the ultimate conspiracy theory! I take it you exclude Fox News, or are they a bit too ''socialist'' for you? What on earth do you imagine this amorphous bunch ''the media'' hope to gain from this?!

 

[Mcr Warrior]

I don't think the media panic. They are very calculated in how they put out information in an attempt to panic the public.

What on earth do you imagine this amorphous bunch ''the media'' hope to gain from this?!

Scary headline stories = another means for "the media" to generate additional revenue through selling advertising, perhaps?

It's arguably their raison d'etre!

 

[Yew]

Wow, the ultimate conspiracy theory! I take it you exclude Fox News, or are they a bit too ''socialist'' for you? What on earth do you imagine this amorphous bunch ''the media'' hope to gain from this?!

How often do we see "the worst winter in a CENTURY" as headlines, the newspapers systemically over-emphasise risk and danger to sell papers, about almost every topic.

 

[35B]

I agree.

I disagree - the issue is not the technology, but how it is treated.

 

[kristiang85]

I disagree - the issue is not the technology, but how it is treated.

Well yes obviously I wasn't saying we should un-invent the technology!

But it needs to be used in a much more sustainable, responsible approach.

 

[102 fan]

Usual BBC scaremongering on the BBC NI news app.

BBC News - Omicron BA.2: Sub-variant may be behind latest Covid surge

Omicron BA.2: Sub-variant may be behind latest Covid surge

The sub-variant, BA.2, may be pushing case numbers higher but is not thought to be any more severe.

www.bbc.co.uk

'On a positive note, while more transmissible, there is no evidence at this stage to suggest that it is any more severe.

We know this as intensive care numbers are falling dramatically.

It is understood that fall is directly due to there being fewer people becoming extremely ill.'

Why don't they highlight the intensive care falling numbers instead of starting with the words' Covid surge'?

 

[yorkie]

Why don't they highlight the intensive care falling numbers instead of starting with the words' Covid surge'?

Because it doesn't suit the BBC's narrative!

Tim Spector posted an update today; the following is particularly relevant:

03:17 the numbers in critical care
03:19 have that are definitely due to Covid
03:22 continues to drop and it's it's been a
03:25 progressive drop
03:27 as we've gone through these variants so
03:29 really showing that the
03:31 the new our variants are
03:34 definitely having less of an impact
03:37 on severity
03:39 or that there's less susceptible people
03:41 out there...

Let's not forget that some of the people who call for restrictions like to portray the false narrative that the virus is evolving (or is likely to evolve) in a manner that makes it more dangerous; this is completely at odds with how existing Coronaviruses have evolved through natural selection to adapt for human cells.

Sars-CoV-2 is continuing to evolve in a manner that is consistent with expectations and in line with predictions by genuine expert virologists (not by scaremongers like Eric Feigl-Ding and other non-experts).

 

[Dent]

Usual BBC scaremongering on the BBC NI news app.

BBC News - Omicron BA.2: Sub-variant may be behind latest Covid surge

Omicron BA.2: Sub-variant may be behind latest Covid surge

The sub-variant, BA.2, may be pushing case numbers higher but is not thought to be any more severe.

www.bbc.co.uk

Why don't they highlight the intensive care falling numbers instead of starting with the words' Covid surge'?

Three quotes from the same article:

A sub-variant of Omicron is thought to be behind the latest surge in Covid-19 cases in Northern Ireland.

While not confirmed, it is believed the sub-variant, BA.2, is pushing case numbers to new highs.

It had been hoped that by now case numbers in Northern Ireland would have started to drop dramatically.

But instead they are falling slowly.

In fact, as case numbers soar the probability is that people are dying of other related diseases.

Surely one of those statement completely contradicts the other two.

 

[greyman42]

Because it doesn't suit the BBC's narrative!

Which is the re-introduction of restrictions.

 

[yorkie]

Although BA.2 cases are increasing, and BA.2 is widely accepted to be a fitter ("more transmissible") version of the original BA.1 Omicron variant, overall cases in England have been declining since late January.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

The 7 day case rate in England on 27th January was 1,102.7 (per 100k population); this has now declined to 748.

Rates in Scotland have not declined however, and are now higher than England.

Tim Spector of the Zoe study posted an update a few days ago where he agrees that cases are declining.

Tim also revealed he is currently infected with the virus despite being extremely careful and this demonstrates how transmissible the virus is

00:13 ...last week i caught omicron...

01:12 ...i was also super careful
01:15 and i've been basically working from
01:17 home hardly saw anybody so it's still a
01:20 bit of a mystery how i managed to get it
01:22 and i think that is just testament to
01:24 what we're dealing with here a very
01:26 clever highly infectious
01:28 variant...

02:16 ...we've actually seen a dip since it's
02:18 its peak a couple of days ago and looks
02:20 like we're over the worst
02:22 and
02:23 the trend seems to be downwards again
02:25 overall and we hope this continues...

11:24 ...norway's government has
11:26 abolished mandatory testing for all
11:28 travelers saying that there was no data
11:31 that it helped at all
11:33 and they're going to be abolishing all
11:34 their measures
11:36 within a week
11:38 and
11:39 this is the way i think all countries
11:40 are going to start going
11:42 inevitably as we start to live with a
11:45 virus we can't have these mandatory
11:47 rules particularly
11:49 when
11:51 we're seeing this kind of data
11:54 large number of cases but
11:57 not so much in terms of the consequence...

This decline is very welcome as certain individuals had claimed that cases would increase in England from 27th January but in fact cases actually declined.

Furthermore, hospitalisation rates continue to decline, the number of people in hospital with Covid has been declining for over month despite huge numbers of incidental cases being picked up, and the number on mechanical ventilation beds is lower than it was in mid-July 2021.

 

[Tramfan]

It's certainly interesting to see the initial suggestions that Omicron was a milder variant born out in the mechanical ventilation bed occupation data, if you looked at these figures without knowing the recent case rates, you wouldn't know there'd been a surge in cases. Indeed the numbers have halved since the beginning of January.

 

[yorkie]

An update from Tim Spector:

Tim discusses the latest data from this week which shows cases continuing to decline, and the spread of Omicron BA.2 around the country. He also discusses the rumours about the ONS COVID surveillance not being renewed and free LFTs being stopped, and what we can do to live with the virus in the future.

Cases reducing in England but rising in Scotland.

BA.2 prevalence is increasing; data is patchy though and it is not uniform across the country.

Tim also mentions that the only type of masks that are worth bothering with are FFP2/3.

And for the people who want unlimited boosters to keep antibody levels high to stave off Omicron, the following is worth listening to (though it's nothing new; it's the same fearmongering being regurgitated )

26:02 can you comment on the new york times
26:04 washington post etc reporting on booster
26:07 efficacy waning i'm open to possible
26:09 need for more shots but to say a test
26:11 negative cc meant general vaccine
26:13 efficiency loss is fear-mongering
26:15 it's fear-mongering for sure
26:17 it's not waning it's contracting which
26:19 antibodies do within six months
26:22 it's normal we know and now the key is
26:27 are you going to be protected yes you're
26:28 going to be protected against severe
26:30 disease and death and hospitalization
26:32 just like you were at two months so
26:35 the
26:36 media does not understand immune systems
26:40 they don't understand that antibodies
26:41 and t cells always contract and you
26:43 depend on a memory response so you're
26:45 going to get infected you will be
26:48 infected no matter how many times you've
26:49 been vaccinated
26:51 at six months after that vaccine and
26:54 your your memory response is going to
26:56 save you end of story

We are all going to be exposed to Sars-CoV-2 (likely Omicron, whether that be BA.1 or BA.2) and everyone just needs to accept that; all the top experts who are worth listening to are saying it.