Should Eurostar expand its network both sides of the Channel and create night sleepers

[Hey 3]

Ideally, if not for customs and Channel Tunnel regulations, we would see the Eurostar reach say Germany, Switzerland, possibly Spain, E and C Europe, Portugal and Italy and maybe, Birmingham New Street (then B'ham Curzon St once HS2 is open), Manchester Piccadilly (a sight I would love to see), ECML destinations, more WCML destinations, and(with wires) MML destinations. I would love to see the airlines being taken on further both sides of the continent and cutting of all short and some medium haul flights too. And also night sleepers too I think should be part of an expansion.

 

[daodao]

Ideally, if not for customs and Channel Tunnel regulations, we would see the Eurostar reach say Germany, Switzerland, possibly Spain, E and C Europe, Portugal and Italy and maybe, Birmingham New Street (then B'ham Curzon St once HS2 is open), Manchester Piccadilly (a sight I would love to see), ECML destinations, more WCML destinations, and(with wires) MML destinations. I would love to see the airlines being taken on further both sides of the continent and cutting of all short and some medium haul flights too. And also night sleepers too I think should be part of an expansion.

La La land.

The future of Eurostar itself is in the balance, as discussed at length on another thread. As for sleepers, they are generally hopelessly uneconomic. Ryanair and Wizzair are the future for medium-distance European travel.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Who's going to fund the capital investment in a new sleeper fleet to operate though the Channel Tunnel (no existing stock is approved)?
Plus the route development costs until something like a viable business appears.
The sleeper market vanished before 2000 with low-cost airlines taking you virtually anywhere in Europe on day flights for (today) something like £50-£100 each way.
There isn't a rail business model which could turn a profit on that.

There are also reports from French politicians that they want SNCF to concentrate on domestic services before any external services.
That's about limiting tax subsidies to operations within France, and HMG has much the same view here.
So it all counts against introducing cross-border services via the Channel Tunnel which would have to run without subsidy.

DB gave up on its day service plans from London to Germany, even before Covid.
Once Eurostar has been nursed back to viability, maybe expansion can be looked at again, but that might be years away.

 

[biko]

Even if you're disregarding the safety and customs aspects, it is really difficult to expand due to track lay-out, the need for long trains to fill and the small British loading gauge. It is way more useful and realistic to have well-advertised through ticketing from any location in the UK to any destination on the continent.

 

[zwk500]

Even if you're disregarding the safety and customs aspects, it is really difficult to expand due to track lay-out, the need for long trains to fill and the small British loading gauge.

With units a portion service isn't unfeasible - on HSR it's undesirable for many reasons although there are plenty of high-speed services that split. The british loading gauge is an issue, although more the the cost of designing down to that size than the actual space lost. 1x200m Manchester and 1x200m Birmingham portions, combining at Stratford Int'l for 1x400m Non-stop to Paris would possibly be workable. However that requires the HS1-HS2 connection which has now been binned. And of course, the customs issue will be a problem, even if you're setting it aside for now.

It is way more useful and realistic to have well-advertised through ticketing from any location in the UK to any destination on the continent.

Agree 100%. A co-ordinated ticketing network to allow the full journey to be booked at 1 time, and the connections honoured if delayed, would do wonders. E* connection times at St P would probably also need to be looked at as part of this.

 

[JonathanH]

Even if you're disregarding the safety and customs aspects, it is really difficult to expand due to track lay-out, the need for long trains to fill and the small British loading gauge. It is way more useful and realistic to have well-advertised through ticketing from any location in the UK to any destination on the continent.

Absolutely, Eurostar should provide a bulk concentrated shuttle between London, Paris , Lille and Brussels and connections from there onwards should be made as easy as possible. I'm not even sure through ticketing is necessary, just some sort of acceptance of accommodation on the next train when there are delays. There is no need to have operations beyond London as it just doesn't work with the need for passport control etc.

However that requires the HS1-HS2 connection which has now been binned.

Binned for good reason due to cost, limited scope for use and the fact that it deprives a UK route of having a train to London on HS2. Far better for the international passenger to share a train to Euston with domestic passengers and then for international passengers to be concentrated on specific trains. No series of locations served by HS2 can fill a train every hour to the continent (or should be expected to do so).

 

[zwk500]

Binned for good reason due to cost, limited scope for use and the fact that it deprives a UK route of having a train to London on HS2.

Agreed

Far better for the international passenger to share a train to Euston with domestic passengers and then for international passengers to be concentrated on specific trains. No series of locations served by HS2 can fill a train every hour to the continent (or should be expected to do so).

I wasn't suggesting a full hourly service, I'd do 1 or 2 trains a day at most, but as mentioned it's already dead in the water. I'm not sure it's 'better' for the international passenger to have to change in London, but it does mean a far more efficient service can be offered to more people (lowering fares), and it's a tolerable break in the journey for those wishing to make it.

 

[Bald Rick]

Plenty of threads on this on the past.

Pushing Eurostar further into Europe? Limited scope. More services to Amsterdam for sure, then possibly Frankfurt, Geneva, summer only service to Bordeaux, and that’s about it. There isn’t the market for anything else.

Eurostar further into the U.K.? No chance

Sleepers? No chance.

 

[Ianno87]

Eurostar's immediate priority is concentrating on its core London/Brussels/Amsterdam/Paris services, and then opening up it's "non standard" destinations once UK-EU travel becomes opened up again.

Though I've said before, that I wouldn't be surprised if the outcome of the current difficulties is binning the ageing 373 fleet, and focusing the 374 fleet on the core service (plus Disney) only.

 

[gingerheid]

I'd love it to be possible as much as anyone.

But each train needs to replace many flights that all leave at roughly the same time to be viable.

We can sort of tell from (former) flight and coach frequencies where the demand might be, and oddly enough everything that looks like it might be viable has been done or considered; London to Paris and Brussels, London to Euro Disney, London to the South of France but only at weekends in the summer, London to the Alps but only in season, London to Holland (not the Netherlands, just Holland). These are the (former) intensively served air and coach routes.

Even pre covid (and assuming Schengen membership) you couldn't add up the flights to Paris from various destinations along a phase 1 & 2 HS2 route and find a combination that could become a viable route, and the only remaining combinations of places that *might* be capable of sustaining a route from London could be the Rhine / Ruhr region?

 

[Bald Rick]

and the only remaining combinations of places that *might* be capable of sustaining a route from London could be the Rhine / Ruhr region?

And Geneva. Lots of flights there all year. Winter Saturdays it becomes just about the busiest route in Europe - around 50 return flights a day. Definitely space in the market for a daily service, something like 0700 out and 1500 back, and on winter weekends a few Eurostars leaving St Pancras at (say) 0600, 0800 and 1000. Perhaps not space in the timetable though.

Journey time would be 5h15 or thereabouts, which would be competitive with air on the whole experience.

 

[AGH]

Whilst I agree with the above (save that HS2-1 link should have been implemented for future proofing) there is a drive on pollution reasons to avoid certain short haul flights and domestic in large countries. With the aviation industry in a royal mess there is an opportunity here for rail which is unlikely to come around again.

 

[Aictos]

Eurostar's immediate priority is concentrating on its core London/Brussels/Amsterdam/Paris services, and then opening up it's "non standard" destinations once UK-EU travel becomes opened up again.

Though I've said before, that I wouldn't be surprised if the outcome of the current difficulties is binning the ageing 373 fleet, and focusing the 374 fleet on the core service (plus Disney) only.

I would like to see Eurostar offer services to Cologne by extending every other Brussels service so 1tp2 hrs but only when it's possible to do this as a trial first most.

 

[Grumpy Git]

Ryanair and Wizzair are the future for medium-distance European travel.

You have no idea how depressed the first word in that sentence makes me feel.

Having just negotiated their on-line booking and checking-in process, (to avoid the dreadful immigration shambles I experienced at Heathrow a couple of weeks ago), I'd suggest O'Leary should be prosecuted for obfuscation! The whole process is designed to trip you up into spending extra on stuff you've already paid for.

An early morning direct train from Liverpool or more likely Manchester to (say) Frankfurt or even Paris to change, would be delightful. Although not in a Standard class Pendolino which I've slowly developed a hate for due to the horrendous seats and small windows/high sill height.

 

[zwk500]

The whole process is designed to trip you up into spending extra on stuff you've already paid for.

That's entirely the point of low-headline fares. They're pretty open about it.

An early morning direct train from Liverpool or more likely Manchester to (say) Frankfurt or even Paris to change, would be delightful. Although not in a Standard class Pendolino which I've slowly developed a hate for due to the horrendous seats and small windows/high sill height.

If you're going to Frankfurt you'd change at Brussels not Paris, but is there enough demand from Liverpool or Manchester to justify an entire through train, even to Brussels or Amsterdam? I think a direct London-Frankfurt/Cologne would have a good case, as you're looking at a 2h30 pendo to Euston, short walk + 10min checkin at E*, then a 4h trip (5 with time difference). leaving 8am thats arriving 3pm local time

 

[Bald Rick]

That's entirely the point of low-headline fares. They're pretty open about it.

If you're going to Frankfurt you'd change at Brussels not Paris, but is there enough demand from Liverpool or Manchester to justify an entire through train, even to Brussels or Amsterdam? I think a direct London-Frankfurt/Cologne would have a good case, as you're looking at a 2h30 pendo to Euston, short walk + 10min checkin at E*, then a 4h trip (5 with time difference). leaving 8am thats arriving 3pm local time

4 at best to Köln, although that does depend on stopping patterns. Over 5 to Frankfurt.

The London - Köln/Bonn air market is less than 1,000 passengers each way daily; Birmingham + Manchester add about another 150 a day. Düsseldorf + Dortmund is more than twice the market. Frankfurt is bigger still, albeit with s fair bit of transfer traffic at both ends. A London - Köln - Frankfurt service would be aiming at a market of nearly 3m air passengers a year which is worth going after as an extension of Brussels services (not stand alone).

The issue, as ever, is the security / border control arrangements. If we were in Schengen then I think it would definitely be a goer.

 

[Ianno87]

The London - Köln/Bonn air market is less than 1,000 passengers each way daily;

Though in that market, I'd argue that rail is already very attractive (via a change at Brussels) so wouldn't be surprised if rail already has a reasonable market share (granted, not a particularly massive market).

Köln has been advertised as a Eurostar connection in timetables right since the early days.

 

[Grumpy Git]

They're pretty open about it.

I disagree. From a purely selfish point of view (as a business traveller 99% of the time), Ryanair et al was the worse thing that ever happened as far as I'm concerned.

Back in the day a business class ticket had no restrictions, you just turned-up at whatever foreign airport you happened to have flown into a few days previous and got on the next flight to leave to your destination, (by whichever carrier available), it was simple. Even expensive business class tickets have restrictions now and it's nothing but a PITA, I'll be glad when I've retired.

 

[Bald Rick]

Though in that market, I'd argue that rail is already very attractive (via a change at Brussels) so wouldn't be surprised if rail already has a reasonable market share (granted, not a particularly massive market).

Köln has been advertised as a Eurostar connection in timetables right since the early days.

I’d be surprised if it was more than 20% of the market. And that would be mostly regular travellers who know the score.

For comparison, Avanti have less than 30% of London - Glasgow, and that’s with a train every hour, no changes, albeit similar language difficulties

 

[Grumpy Git]

Apart from the pandemic, I guess there wil have been a massive drop-off in London - Brussels business due to Brexit, (i.e. all the EU parlimentary back-room staff,etc.)?

 

[zwk500]

4 at best to Köln, although that does depend on stopping patterns. Over 5 to Frankfurt.

I might have been misreckoning the time difference. Thanks

A London - Köln - Frankfurt service would be aiming at a market of nearly 3m air passengers a year which is worth going after as an extension of Brussels services (not stand alone).

The issue, as ever, is the security / border control arrangements. If we were in Schengen then I think it would definitely be a goer.

Agreed. Although they managed to get Amsterdam sorted, so there's still hope.

Though in that market, I'd argue that rail is already very attractive (via a change at Brussels) so wouldn't be surprised if rail already has a reasonable market share (granted, not a particularly massive market).

Not all the 1,000 passengers will want to travel at the same time, of course.

I disagree. From a purely selfish point of view (as a business traveller 99% of the time), Ryanair et al was the worse thing that ever happened as far as I'm concerned.

Ryanair aren't aimed at Business travel though. They are very open that you pay for each and every service you want individually. They are also fairly open with the fact that they set their products up to lead people into booking more services. I didn't say they were a nice company to book or fly with, nor that they were open about their actual costs.

Back in the day a business class ticket had no restrictions, you just turned-up at whatever foreign airport you happened to have flown into a few days previous and got on the next flight to leave to your destination, (by whichever carrier available), it was simple. Even expensive business class tickets have restrictions now and it's nothing but a PITA, I'll be glad when I've retired.

I'm sure if you want that level of service you can pay for it, but it costs companies a lot of money to offer those services so it's no surprise the flog it cheap, pile 'em in crowd aren't interested.

Apart from the pandemic, I guess there wil have been a massive drop-off in London - Brussels business due to Brexit, (i.e. all the EU parlimentary back-room staff,etc.)?

If anything, I'd expect more travel as we've now got to negotiate treaties with the EU rather than simply conduct parliamentary business. It will probably shift slightly from a sustained background flow to shorter, more intense bursts though.

 

[XAM2175]

For comparison, Avanti have less than 30% of London - Glasgow, and that’s with a train every hour, no changes, albeit similar language difficulties

Currency exchange too, for southbound travellers

 

[Bald Rick]

I might have been misreckoning the time difference. Thanks

4 to Köln, 5 to Frankfurt exclude the time difference. Works well for the return journey of course! Finish a meeting in Frankfurt at 1700, train at 1800, London for 2200.

Agreed. Although they managed to get Amsterdam sorted, so there's still hope.

Amsterdam is a big market on its own - twice the size of Frankfurt and Köln combined - and with a good mix of leisure and business, therefore a good spread of passengers through the week and times of day. Frankfurt is very business dominated, and the route is likely to suffer more from the drop in business travel.