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SouthEastern fleet replacement: suggestions and predictions

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NSEWonderer

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If they have cancelled the tender surely that means the opposite?
The tender was for the networker replacement last I knew, if they intend to wait till the 376s are of age then it would be a whole metro fleet replacement similar to GA.

That would leave the 707 and whatever else may replace the 376 and Networker fleet. Pretty much streamlines their fleet which has quite a few classes.
 

Doomotron

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I feel like they are going to wait until the 376s reach end of life and do it all in one big go.
That means by the time 376s are at the end of their lives, Networkers will be around 50 years old. They're life expired already, I doubt the Networkers will last 40 years let alone half a century!
"Proposals to obtain a new EMU fleet for Southeastern have also been shelved."
Do they provide any evidence or sources for this?
 

brad465

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That means by the time 376s are at the end of their lives, Networkers will be around 50 years old. They're life expired already, I doubt the Networkers will last 40 years let alone half a century!
I think it's more likely that 376s go before life expiry, given they are the smaller fleet and relatively easy to bin off, than get the most out of them and drag the Networkers on longer than they can reasonably survive. They are currently 18-19 years old and I don't see them leaving before aged 25 if they were to go with the Networkers still operating. While this is still earlier than life expiry, EMU fleets have been withdrawn more prematurely than that (unless of course another operator found use for 376s).
Do they provide any evidence or sources for this?
They don't, which is partly why I brought it up here, to see if any industry sources can be disclosed that confirm whether or not that quote is linked to this tender notice.
 

Mikey C

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If the Networkers aren't to be replaced, then they'll need significant refurbishment, akin to the Southern and SWT 455s for example. Maybe retractioning of the GEC powered ones too.
 

JonathanH

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If the Networkers aren't to be replaced, then they'll need significant refurbishment
Will they? What is the source that they need significant refurbishment? I thought that the operator's concerns were more around mechanical obsolescence than passenger facilities. Isn't there an ongoing overhaul programme?
 

Doomotron

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What is the source that they need significant refurbishment?
Going on one.
I thought that the operator's concerns were more around mechanical obsolescence than passenger facilities.
That's true especially with the non-Hitachi ones, but it's the passenger complaints that'll be the problem sooner or later - plenty of reliable fleets have been withdrawn with the public hating them, and plenty of comfortable fleets have been withdrawn because of reliability.
Isn't there an ongoing overhaul programme?
There was the Hitachi one a decade ago, which only did a small portion of the fleet and even then wasn't a massive upgrade.
 

JonathanH

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Going on one.
That's true especially with the non-Hitachi ones, but it's the passenger complaints that'll be the problem sooner or later
That still makes that your opinion rather than stated fact. Are Southeastern receiving a lot of correspondence from passengers about the state of the Networkers? Would passenger complaints ever genuinely be an issue?
 

Stephen42

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I think it's more likely that 376s go before life expiry, given they are the smaller fleet and relatively easy to bin off, than get the most out of them and drag the Networkers on longer than they can reasonably survive. They are currently 18-19 years old and I don't see them leaving before aged 25 if they were to go with the Networkers still operating. While this is still earlier than life expiry, EMU fleets have been withdrawn more prematurely than that (unless of course another operator found use for 376s).

They don't, which is partly why I brought it up here, to see if any industry sources can be disclosed that confirm whether or not that quote is linked to this tender notice.
Steve White the managing director has stated on Twitter/X that it's not true. Relevant quotes below:
Not true. Procurement is underway. We are inviting options for both new and modern cascaded stock and will evaluate the responses.
Bidders have been advised that we need 350 - 600+ vehicles. The procurement process concludes next year.
Other large orders have been two years for an award so it doesn't seem out of the ordinary on face value.
 

brad465

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Steve White the managing director has stated on Twitter/X that it's not true. Relevant quotes below:


Other large orders have been two years for an award so it doesn't seem out of the ordinary on face value.
Judging by the text of the tweet triggering White's reply, user MarkL was reading this thread (i.e. it's almost identical to the post I made this weekend).
 

Pdf

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There were suggestions in the great northern tender thread that GN getting 379s would allow 387s to move to Southern in turn allowing some 377s to move (back) to Southeastern. Could this plus the remaining 707s coming from Southwestern be enough to replace the networkers?

Edit:
Could this plus the remaining 707s coming from Southwestern be enough to replace the networkers?
I just checked and there are 170 networkers in service. That's not happening.
 

Doomotron

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There were suggestions in the great northern tender thread that GN getting 379s would allow 387s to move to Southern in turn allowing some 377s to move (back) to Southeastern. Could this plus the remaining 707s coming from Southwestern be enough to replace the networkers?
350 to 600 carriages couldn't be covered by 377s from Southern. There are 870 Southern 377 coaches from my calculations, which means if SE got all of the coaches they wanted based on the new tender, Southern would be left with 270 coaches, or just over 67 units. Obviously I doubt 377s will be used for the order, but while a handful of 377s transferring could be useful short-term (assuming 379s are moving to GN, which would start the 387/377 cascade) they wouldn't be needed long-term if there's already a significant new order.

I do not know what formations SE are thinking of for their new trains. They might be four or five coach units that can be coupled together, they could be 8, 10 or 12-coach full-length units, or they could follow the very clever suggestion in the main thread that the trains should be a mix of 4 and 6 coach units, which would allow formations to be any needed length on the SE metro. I doubt it though. However, assuming they are all going to be 4 coaches to make the calculations easier, they'd be getting somewhere between 87.5 and 150 new trains. Assuming Wikipedia is correct saying 170 Networkers are currently in service (which includes the 466s), it appears SE are under-ordering, but the formations are very important here. A ten coach Networker set is formed of two 465s and one 466, but if the new trains are 5 coaches long the same length train can be made with two new units rather than three Networker units. It'll be a while until we can finally see what SE are planning for the deployment of the new trains, unless there's some sort of insider knowledge or SE support are willing to say.
 
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NSEWonderer

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I'd assume a unit with open gangways in a 5 car configuration will be what SE are looking for. Because the open gangways with the right seating configuration will act almost like a 6 car which means when two 5 car sets are combined they have a pseudo 12 car set in capacity with less maintaining because its really a 10 car.

Also give them the added benefit of not having to do much station extending for 12 car configuration (if there is any left). Unless the Desiro Verve becomes a thing by the time SE is ready for a tender then I'd assume the Aventras may still be the prime pickings.
 

Energy

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I'd assume a unit with open gangways in a 5 car configuration will be what SE are looking for. Because the open gangways with the right seating configuration will act almost like a 6 car which means when two 5 car sets are combined they have a pseudo 12 car set in capacity with less maintaining because its really a 10 car.

Also give them the added benefit of not having to do much station extending for 12 car configuration (if there is any left). Unless the Desiro Verve becomes a thing by the time SE is ready for a tender then I'd assume the Aventras may still be the prime pickings.
There are a few places which are 10/11 car only. 5 and 6 car Desiro Cities would work rather well.
 

Pdf

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Perhaps a cascade of 377s (and the remaining 707s) could be used to turn some of the networkers into spares donors to extend the life of the rest of the fleet until it could be replaced alongside the electrostars as part of a mega order.
 

Trainguy34

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Perhaps a cascade of 377s (and the remaining 707s) could be used to turn some of the networkers into spares donors to extend the life of the rest of the fleet until it could be replaced alongside the electrostars as part of a mega order.
I severely doubt that when you consider that the Electrostars are going to have at least 3 decades left in them at least knowing society at the moment.
 

Snow1964

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Perhaps a cascade of 377s (and the remaining 707s) could be used to turn some of the networkers into spares donors to extend the life of the rest of the fleet until it could be replaced alongside the electrostars as part of a mega order.
I don't think the 376 electrostars replacement would be part of mega order as only 18-19 years old. I could easily see them be solely used for peak hour extras when new fleet arrives, not regular all day service. Especially if peak becomes just Mon-Thur, with Friday same as Saturday timetable sometime in next few years.

Much more likely if something leaves, the 707s would move (they were originally tested for ac too), if someone else needed a fleet of inner suburban trains.

Its simply economic terms, if commuting becomes 4 days rather than 5, then will be demand for 25+ year old units retained for the peak services. Never going to be able to justify newish units for 4 return journeys (say 8 single journeys of 1 hour each).
 

ScotGG

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Will they? What is the source that they need significant refurbishment? I thought that the operator's concerns were more around mechanical obsolescence than passenger facilities. Isn't there an ongoing overhaul programme?
Go on one that isn't the /9s.

If there's a more battered and tired EMU (or DMU) interior in the country I'd like to see it. And Ive been on most the past five years.

Filthy and falling apart.

Presumably a TOC wants to attract custom. The state of the trains don't do that.
 

NSEWonderer

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I don't think the 376 electrostars replacement would be part of mega order as only 18-19 years old. I could easily see them be solely used for peak hour extras when new fleet arrives, not regular all day service. Especially if peak becomes just Mon-Thur, with Friday same as Saturday timetable sometime in next few years.

Much more likely if something leaves, the 707s would move (they were originally tested for ac too), if someone else needed a fleet of inner suburban trains.

Its simply economic terms, if commuting becomes 4 days rather than 5, then will be demand for 25+ year old units retained for the peak services. Never going to be able to justify newish units for 4 return journeys (say 8 single journeys of 1 hour each).
Well its not completely out the picture considering the 707s got the boot for 701s alongside older units. The 379s were only 11-12 years old when they got compacted as part of the refurb plan for GA. Both trains considerably better imo than the barebones package the Class 376 offers. Unless they're doing a decent refurb on the 376s(which are also still in Connex colors might I add).
 

Doomotron

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Unless they're doing a decent refurb on the 376s(which are also still in Connex colors might I add).
There is already a refurbishment of them about to start, although the extent of it is not known. A repaint is expected into either SE dark blue or a potential new livery*, and the interior is set to be refreshed too, although don't expect any significant changes.

*This is based on the interior renders for the Class 395 refurbishment, which has a different interior colour scheme to SE's 'official' interior colour scheme as seen on 375s. This may suggest that there is a new livery incoming but that's just me speculating.
 

RobShipway

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Not sure if it will be, but if something like the Alstom (Bombardier) Aventra is ordered in similar style to class 710 units with 710/1 - 2 as 4 car units and 710/3 as five car units, then you could be using some of the 5 car trains as the Aventra have longer carriages to be replacing more than 1 unit of the class 465 fleet. You have to remember including the stored units there is 147 class 465 units and 36 class 376 units.

Now there are 19 class 465 units stored, which means that you are probably only really replacing 128 class 465 units. So you if replaced the class 465 units, with 4 car units you would be needing 512 carriages. I suspect though, they are probably looking at replacing both class 465 and the 36 class 466 units with as @XCTurbostar stated in November last year, 5 car units.

I don't believe that as yet South Eastern are looking into replacing the class 376 fleet.
 

Mikey C

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Not sure if it will be, but if something like the Alstom (Bombardier) Aventra is ordered in similar style to class 710 units with 710/1 - 2 as 4 car units and 710/3 as five car units, then you could be using some of the 5 car trains as the Aventra have longer carriages to be replacing more than 1 unit of the class 465 fleet. You have to remember including the stored units there is 147 class 465 units and 36 class 376 units.

Now there are 19 class 465 units stored, which means that you are probably only really replacing 128 class 465 units. So you if replaced the class 465 units, with 4 car units you would be needing 512 carriages. I suspect though, they are probably looking at replacing both class 465 and the 36 class 466 units with as @XCTurbostar stated in November last year, 5 car units.

I don't believe that as yet South Eastern are looking into replacing the class 376 fleet.
The 710s have the same 20m body as the Networkers and 376s. I can't see Southeastern going for 23m carriages, seeing that even the high speed 395s have 20m ones.
 

Doomotron

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The 710s have the same 20m body as the Networkers and 376s. I can't see Southeastern going for 23m carriages, seeing that even the high speed 395s have 20m ones.
Indeed, the SE network is set up for 20m coaches throughout. 12x20m is ten metres longer than 10x23m, so they'd be losing roughly 10 metres of room, although some space would be taken anyway by the extra gangways of having more coaches in a train.
 

MPW

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My regular commute is petts wood to LBG/CST and I actually don't mind any of the trains on the route. Yes the citybeams are nicer but the older ones are still large EMUs with comfortable seating. They're obviously visually tired but I'd rather SE take the time to do a whole fleet replacement and consolidation of depots/maintenance in order to improve behind the scenes operations.

Maybe people further in at hither green or grove Park might disagree as its usually standing room only by then, and these trains aren't as good for that (narrow aisles and inadequate or insufficient number of grab bar). I only really feel negative about the trains when I have my son and buggy, as there's nowhere near enough space for that (and bikes).

The 376s are my least favourite. This is all personal taste of course but thought i would share given most people feel differently, balance of opinion.
 
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