TfL possible long term funding settlement @ June Spending Review

[OneTrackMinded]

On the 11th of June, the second part of the spending review will take place, along with the 10 year infrastructure plan.

TfL has submitted a business case to the government for long term funding, including the following:
-Bakerloo Line upgrade (e.g. new trains)
-New Piccadilly line signalling upgrade
-Growth schemes: Bakerloo Line extension, DLR extension to Thamesmead

It is also requested funding to clear the "historic backlog" of repairs and refurbishments required.

TfL is now the only major transport authority in the country (and indeed Europe) not to have long term funding. Of urgent attention is the Bakerloo Line trains which are now 52 years old, the oldest stock still in regular passenger service in the UK.

It's hard to predict at the moment whether or not they will be successful with this proposal as it seems transport funding priority is in other parts of the country at the moment.

 

[cactustwirly]

Well the Bakerloo line trains needs to happen, TfL don't really have a choice

 

[Thirteen]

I can't imagine the Government will say no to at least the Bakerloo Line Upgrade.

The Tram replacement programme are also part of the funding settlement IIRC unless that is already covered by the last settlement.

 

[cle]

DLR to Thamesmead feels a much lesser priority now that Crossrail is at Abbey Wood. Easy bus to a far quicker train than the DLR would be (which really just feeds the same at Custom House)

Also, it’s another branch.

Compared to the Bakerloo, it feels very unimportant.

And Barking Riverside got GOBLIN without much fuss - which is more net new development in itself.

 

[thomalex]

Well the Bakerloo line trains needs to happen, TfL don't really have a choice

Agreed. That option should be labelled 'close the Bakerloo line'

It's hard to predict at the moment whether or not they will be successful with this proposal as it seems transport funding priority is in other parts of the country at the moment.

I think the Bakerloo extension is likely to happen, compared to the northern projects it will have a much higher benefit cost ratio and will likely return money to the treasury with developer contributions.

 

[red star]

Dont forget West London Orbital

https://democracy.brent.gov.uk/documents/s146072/08.+West+London+Orbital.pdf

Decision - Funding contribution towards next stage development costs for West London Orbital scheme

Brent Council democracy

democracy.brent.gov.uk

Good value - no tunnelling required
Would be game changer .......enable suburban modal shift onto public transport and promote growth

 

[Russel]

It's shocking to see the state the Underground is in at the moment, given its the most important mass transit system in the UK...

A long term funding plan needs to happen.

 

[JonathanH]

A long term funding plan needs to happen.

What potential is there for TfL to fund the Bakerloo Line trains from farepayers and its own resources instead of central government funding?

 

[GFE]

I believe Tfl have already exhausted their Loan allowance (and has the associated ongoing outgoings) - so not much scope there (unless the ceiling is raised).
A bit surprised leasing hasn't been mentioned (at least for the trains themselves)

 

[Thirteen]

I believe Tfl have already exhausted their Loan allowance (and has the associated ongoing outgoings) - so not much scope there (unless the ceiling is raised).
A bit surprised leasing hasn't been mentioned (at least for the trains themselves)

Leasing is a bit tricky because they cannot really be transferred elsewhere. It was done for the Class 378 although they were bought recently. Keep in mind the Elizabeth Line trains were sold and leased back in order to pay for the 2024 stock so I imagine it's unlikely they can do the same elsewhere.

Exercising the option for the 2024 stock is still going to be in the billions especially when you consider they will also want to purchase the new trams which will be less but still a fair chunk of change

 

[cle]

They need to go Japanese - air rights, huge malls, landlords and apartments etc etc - and more interesting retail, food etc in stations.

That is how all these private JP companies stay afloat and derive revenue - more so than fares.

Buy adjacent land, develop it. And build huge towers above their owned station sites. Supermarkets are doing it now, TfL is well positioned.

 

[sh24]

Disappointing that Crossrail 2 seems totally dead. London is the beating heart of the Uk economy, if London loses its economic way the implications for the wider Uk economy are pretty serious.

 

[Russel]

What potential is there for TfL to fund the Bakerloo Line trains from farepayers and its own resources instead of central government funding?

No idea, but considering it hasn't happened, I think that gives us a clue.

They need to go Japanese - air rights, huge malls, landlords and apartments etc etc - and more interesting retail, food etc in stations.

That is how all these private JP companies stay afloat and derive revenue - more so than fares.

Buy adjacent land, develop it. And build huge towers above their owned station sites. Supermarkets are doing it now, TfL is well positioned.

Too forward thinking for the UK.

 

[OneTrackMinded]

They need to go Japanese - air rights, huge malls, landlords and apartments etc etc - and more interesting retail, food etc in stations.

That is how all these private JP companies stay afloat and derive revenue - more so than fares.

Buy adjacent land, develop it. And build huge towers above their owned station sites. Supermarkets are doing it now, TfL is well positioned.

Yes I completely agree. This would be a great opportunity for growth.

Agreed. That option should be labelled 'close the Bakerloo line'

Indeed.

 

[778]

On the 11th of June, the second part of the spending review will take place, along with the 10 year infrastructure plan.

TfL has submitted a business case to the government for long term funding, including the following:
-Bakerloo Line upgrade (e.g. new trains)
-New Piccadilly line signalling upgrade
-Growth schemes: Bakerloo Line extension, DLR extension to Thamesmead

It is also requested funding to clear the "historic backlog" of repairs and refurbishments required.

TfL is now the only major transport authority in the country (and indeed Europe) not to have long term funding. Of urgent attention is the Bakerloo Line trains which are now 52 years old, the oldest stock still in regular passenger service in the UK.

It's hard to predict at the moment whether or not they will be successful with this proposal as it seems transport funding priority is in other parts of the country at the moment.

Do TFL still want to take over the Great Northern and Southeastern metro routes?

 

[Thirteen]

Places For London which is TfL's property arm is for building new homes and commercial developments. They have plans for overstation developments at Nine Elms, Bank, Southwark to name but three

 

[OneTrackMinded]

Places For London which is TfL's property arm is for building new homes and commercial developments. They have plans for overstation developments at Nine Elms, Bank, Southwark to name but three

Only paid £20 million back to the main TfL transport branch in dividends in 2023 of their £36 million profit. In the grand scheme of things, that makes very little difference to the balance sheet.

What is TfL's Places for London, and is it really tackling the capital's property crisis?

City A.M. caught up with Places for London to see how it is addressing housing and real estate issues in the capital.

www.cityam.com

 

[Thirteen]

Only paid £20 million back to the main TfL transport branch in dividends in 2023 of their £36 million profit. In the grand scheme of things, that makes very little difference to the balance sheet.

What is TfL's Places for London, and is it really tackling the capital's property crisis?

City A.M. caught up with Places for London to see how it is addressing housing and real estate issues in the capital.

www.cityam.com

It'll probably deliver more revenue once the new homes and developments are built.

 

[MPW]

DLR to Thamesmead feels a much lesser priority now that Crossrail is at Abbey Wood. Easy bus to a far quicker train than the DLR would be (which really just feeds the same at Custom House)

Also, it’s another branch.

Compared to the Bakerloo, it feels very unimportant.

And Barking Riverside got GOBLIN without much fuss - which is more net new development in itself.

It's probably just the crayons talking but the extension to thamesmead feels like something that will enable strong business case for further extensions once the river crossing is in place. For example a connection from Beckton to barking along the A406 could allow direct transport services from thamesmead area to east London and stations beyond in both sides of river (kent, essex). You then have something better than the infrequent overground connection: an automated light metro with much higher frequency and lower operating cost.

If the whole area develops as is implied by the massive size of the opportunity area then eventually the DLR will need more connections.

 

[The Ham]

Disappointing that Crossrail 2 seems totally dead. London is the beating heart of the Uk economy, if London loses its economic way the implications for the wider Uk economy are pretty serious.

Indeed, especially given the wider benefits (extra services out of Waterloo) which it also allows.

However given that there's been spending announced for the regional cities, it becomes less political to them announce a funding scheme for TfL as there's been time for the details of what the regional cities are likely to get, so allowing London to get something isn't going to be as negative (as long as the value for the regional cities isn't smaller than what London gets - so as much as I'd like Crossrail 2 to happen, that's likely to be pushed back a bit further until the regional cities can be seen to actually be getting their schemes).

 

[stuu]

Disappointing that Crossrail 2 seems totally dead. London is the beating heart of the Uk economy, if London loses its economic way the implications for the wider Uk economy are pretty serious.

I'm not, it's a stupid idea. The metro version was much more sensible, and could have been delivered in phases. The current CR2 plan tries to solve too many problems in one go and puts far too much pressure on the EL at TCR

 

[Adsy125]

Khan is reportedly briefing that there won't be any funding for new Bakerloo stock.

Why Lime bikes beep

Plus: Are foxes occupying Google's new London HQ, what happened when everyone paid to skip the queue at SXSW, and pope-themed vegetable sculptures.

www.londoncentric.media

Whether this is a strategy to pressure the government so TfL do at least get something, I don't know.

As trailed in London Centric last week, it sounds as though the capital is set to be overlooked by chancellor Rachel Reeves when she announces new spending plans on Wednesday.

The briefing from Sadiq Khan's office this morning is that they fear “there will be no new projects or funding” for the capital, despite the Labour mayor presenting a long list of requests to the Labour government. That would mean no extension of the DLR to Thamesmead, no extra cash for the Met police, and no replacement for the 53-year-old Bakerloo line trains. The latter are so old that they’re falling apart, meaning there’s no spare trains to enable them to be cleaned of their increasingly-prevalent graffiti.

As a “source close to the mayor” puts it: “We must not return to the damaging, anti-London approach of the last government… Sadiq will always stand up for London and has been clear it would be unacceptable if there are no major infrastructure projects for London announced in the Spending Review and the Met doesn’t get the funding it needs.”

 

[OneTrackMinded]

Khan is reportedly briefing that there won't be any funding for new Bakerloo stock.

Why Lime bikes beep

Plus: Are foxes occupying Google's new London HQ, what happened when everyone paid to skip the queue at SXSW, and pope-themed vegetable sculptures.

www.londoncentric.media

Whether this is a strategy to pressure the government so TfL do at least get something, I don't know.

Not just the Bakerloo line stock, this is making it out like there won't be funding for anything..!

Agreed. That option should be labelled 'close the Bakerloo line'

Looks like they picked that option…

 

[ScotGG]

The foreshadowing doesn't look good. A government that is interested in growth would not play the old north v south game and invest in both (along with east and west).

The only good thing would be ditching the DLR to Thamesmead scheme. A project born out of desperation when much better schemes were ditched post financial crises. It harms better transport both north and south of the river.

It's probably just the crayons talking but the extension to thamesmead feels like something that will enable strong business case for further extensions once the river crossing is in place. For example a connection from Beckton to barking along the A406 could allow direct transport services from thamesmead area to east London and stations beyond in both sides of river (kent, essex). You then have something better than the infrequent overground connection: an automated light metro with much higher frequency and lower operating cost.

If the whole area develops as is implied by the massive size of the opportunity area then eventually the DLR will need more connections.

It won't help anywhere else south of the river as it will go no further than a small part of Thamesmead. Extension potential is limited to many other areas of major residential growth due to needing a tunnel/viaduct across Thamesmead/Plumstead. The cost and benefits of a line weaving south from Beckton to Thamesmead then back north across the Thames to Barking Riverside makes little sense.

Best thing to do is scrap the Thamesmead DLR plan, keep any Barking DLR branch extension north serving 20-25k new homes to the east through Barking Riverside and Dagenham (and avoid tunnel construction costs) and in the south greatly improve links from proposed new developments in Thamesmead and north Bexley borough to the Lizzie line. DLR plans hamper growth each side and never made much sense when it emerged 10 years ago, and makes less now development plans have grown either side of the river.

Bakerloo line makes much more sense. There's not much else that can help bring about the 20-30k homes planned along the Old Kent Road. Also being far closer to inner London running through Zones 1 to Z 2/3 should ensure greater help from developers to fund it.

West London Orbital also looks to be a very good scheme.

 

[Thirteen]

The Bakerloo Line Upgrade will likely happen since it's both essential and provides jobs for the North as well.

 

[Russel]

Looking past the political games... What options are TFL left with, regarding the Bakerloo, if no funding is agreed and is any sort of closure a realistic proposal?

 

[OneTrackMinded]

Looking past the political games... What options are TFL left with, regarding the Bakerloo, if no funding is agreed and is any sort of closure a realistic proposal?

There was that internal refreshment programme with the wheelchair space and PID screens that doesn't seem to be going anywhere..

 

[bramling]

Looking past the political games... What options are TFL left with, regarding the Bakerloo, if no funding is agreed and is any sort of closure a realistic proposal?

What would likely happen is the trains would continue to deteriorate, to the point where there would simply have to be progressive reductions in the timetable.

There does seem to have been a “head in the sand” on all this, be that TFL’s fault or the political system more widely. Same with the Central Line - the issues with those trains have been known for very many years, yet here we are now.

Do any senior managers actually remain for a long enough tenure within LU to actually get a handle on issues?

 

[OneTrackMinded]

What would likely happen is the trains would continue to deteriorate, to the point where there would simply have to be progressive reductions in the timetable.

There does seem to have been a “head in the sand” on all this, be that TFL’s fault or the political system more widely. Same with the Central Line - the issues with those trains have been known for very many years, yet here we are now.

Do any senior managers actually remain for a long enough tenure within LU to actually get a handle on issues?

I agree that the Central line was allowed to deteriorate for a considerable amount of time without much focus on it, however with the Bakerloo, TfL and the mayor has been asking for funding to replace the trains for many years now.

 

[Thirteen]

Looking past the political games... What options are TFL left with, regarding the Bakerloo, if no funding is agreed and is any sort of closure a realistic proposal?

There is no chance they'd close the Bakerloo Line, too many job losses for one.

The Evening Standard has an article on the subject which seems to suggest that a long term funding is more likely than funding all of the big ticket projects. The BLE can't really happen before new trains anyway.