ULEZ - public don't care / uninterested

[172007]

The electorate has given Sadiq Khan a 3rd term as London Mayor with a slight drop in voter turnout to 42.8%. West Midlands Mayor has become Labour.

This surely means the London ULEZ zone is a total no issue to the general public and in reality rolling more out or expanding them is not going to affect a politicians electoral chances. Strongest evidence being that the voting turnout went down in London. If it was the issue the media and social media made I would would have expected a voter turnout of 60% or more, not going down.

Must be a couple of individuals around London damaging ULEZ cameras and media hyperbole whipping up a non-story.

 

[SeanG]

As with most things like this, those who shout the loudest are heard the most.

Personally, even as a car lover, I think that ULEZ should be stricter. Why should my polluting 25mpg Hyundai i30N be exempt when it is likely more polluting than some cars that currently are charged?

For me, the ULEZ zone should be all electric/hydrogen and no fossil fuels

 

[MotCO]

As with most things like this, those who shout the loudest are heard the most.

Personally, even as a car lover, I think that ULEZ should be stricter. Why should my polluting 25mpg Hyundai i30N be exempt when it is likely more polluting than some cars that currently are charged?

For me, the ULEZ zone should be all electric/hydrogen and no fossil fuels

All electric /hydrogen is a non-starter - few people can afford the high purchase prices other than companies with benefits-in-kind.
A lot of the issue is people from outside London travelling in for work, particularly hospital staff and hospitality staff. They are on low wages, can't afford to live in London, and commute by car due to unsocial hours. They didn't get a vote in the Mayoral election. A lot of the outer London vote was Tory and in Harrow the Tory vote increased probably due to ULEZ.
The effect of ULEZ will diminish over time as people replace cars. The issue is what is the next stage - road pricing, even lower emission targets e.g. to Euro 7 levels?

 

[43066]

The electorate has given Sadiq Khan a 3rd term as London Mayor with a slight drop in voter turnout to 42.8%. West Midlands Mayor has become Labour.

This surely means the London ULEZ zone is a total no issue to the general public and in reality rolling more out or expanding them is not going to affect a politicians electoral chances. Strongest evidence being that the voting turnout went down in London. If it was the issue the media and social media made I would would have expected a voter turnout of 60% or more, not going down.

Must be a couple of individuals around London damaging ULEZ cameras and media hyperbole whipping up a non-story.

I think this sums things up very well. I noticed a few more anti ULEZ protests recently in Bromley, which is pretty much the epicentre of resistance movement (and, to be fair, there are some very rural parts of the borough where I can see why people feel it doesn’t make sense). However if you look at the swing towards Labour, even in the outer London boroughs, it shows that the issue simply doesn’t make a difference at an electoral level.

There was a fair bit of misinformation around how many would be affected, which most people have seen through; the numbers are tiny when you consider it’s only people driving pre 2015 or so diesels, who haven’t already switched to petrol or a newer diesel. It’s not as if we didn’t know it was coming!

 

[PGAT]

Only a small number of people would actually be upset by ULEZ. When Khan announced the expansion the amount of compliant vehicles were 90%, and its closer to 98% now

 

[MotCO]

Only a small number of people would actually be upset by ULEZ. When Khan announced the expansion the amount of compliant vehicles were 90%, and its closer to 98% now

Does that mean that the number of £12.50s has reduced, scuppering the Mayor's income stream?

 

[Fundee on Tay]

Does that mean that the number of £12.50s has reduced, scuppering the Mayor's income stream?

The £12.50 is mostly intended to cover the costs of running the scheme. It was never intended to be an income stream (at least, not a sustainable one) for the mayor on account of the fact non-compliant vehicles would reduce over time.

 

[HullRailMan]

The electorate has given Sadiq Khan a 3rd term as London Mayor with a slight drop in voter turnout to 42.8%. West Midlands Mayor has become Labour.

This surely means the London ULEZ zone is a total no issue to the general public and in reality rolling more out or expanding them is not going to affect a politicians electoral chances. Strongest evidence being that the voting turnout went down in London. If it was the issue the media and social media made I would would have expected a voter turnout of 60% or more, not going down.

Must be a couple of individuals around London damaging ULEZ cameras and media hyperbole whipping up a non-story.

It really is far too simplistic to draw that conclusion; how can you possibly know the individual motivations behind 1m+ votes(and several million more choosing not to vote). The non-Khan vote was clearly stronger in outer London, but then it was to begin with. That said, it may have had an impact in councils bordering London. As ever, the media/social media echo chamber has distorted what everyday folk actually think.

 

[bramling]

The electorate has given Sadiq Khan a 3rd term as London Mayor with a slight drop in voter turnout to 42.8%. West Midlands Mayor has become Labour.

This surely means the London ULEZ zone is a total no issue to the general public and in reality rolling more out or expanding them is not going to affect a politicians electoral chances. Strongest evidence being that the voting turnout went down in London. If it was the issue the media and social media made I would would have expected a voter turnout of 60% or more, not going down.

Must be a couple of individuals around London damaging ULEZ cameras and media hyperbole whipping up a non-story.

Probably too many factors involved to be able to draw conclusions. There’s also the significant issue of an extremely unpopular Conservative party, and the fact that they keep fielding awful candidates for the mayor role.

Not sure what anyone feels Khan has actually achieved to date.

 

[Snow1964]

Does that mean that the number of £12.50s has reduced, scuppering the Mayor's income stream?

Yes, the most recent TfL Finance report (that is published) shows (on page 17) other Income for roads of £104m lower than budget. This category per notes on left of page is ULEZ income, but also includes others eg cycle hire income.

The next category is £24m extra costs which notes say is mainly due to extra TfL scrappage costs under its ULEZ policies

As that Finance report covers 11 of 13 four week periods, the ULEZ must be about £100m under budget for the year

https://board.tfl.gov.uk/documents/s22055/fc-20240313-item08b-finance-report-part1-appx1.pdf

 

[MotCO]

Yes, the most recent TfL Finance report (that is published) shows (on page 17) other Income for roads of £104m lower than budget. This category per notes on left of page is ULEZ income, but also includes others eg cycle hire income.

The reduction is some 10%, and accounts for most of the 12% deficit. Can't see it improving if more and more cars are compliant. Not looking good!

 

[ScotGG]

Was always overblown. Impacts so few.

Politics is the art of what's possible. Banning all ICE cars? No chance. A measure that ended up impacting a couple of per cent of the population for cleaner air? Not a big vote killer. The opposite if anything. Opponents though were and are in a bubble too often and thought they spoke for most despite the polls and the numbers (Tories bought into it fully and paid the price)

 

[HullRailMan]

The reduction is some 10%, and accounts for most of the 12% deficit. Can't see it improving if more and more cars are compliant. Not looking good!

I’m sure Khan will think of some other way to use the cameras to generate income….

 

[ScotGG]

The £12.50 is mostly intended to cover the costs of running the scheme. It was never intended to be an income stream (at least, not a sustainable one) for the mayor on account of the fact non-compliant vehicles would reduce over time.

Yep the cash cow line is also a bit silly.

The first ULEZ expansion wasn't so the expansion was always unlikely to be and given £160m scrappage scheme and very high compliance the idea it would rake in cash was a nonsense.

 

[43066]

Only a small number of people would actually be upset by ULEZ. When Khan announced the expansion the amount of compliant vehicles were 90%, and its closer to 98% now

To be honest it seems to have morphed into a more general anti Khan/conspiracy theorist/alt right nutter protest movement.

It really is far too simplistic to draw that conclusion; how can you possibly know the individual motivations behind 1m+ votes(and several million more choosing not to vote). The non-Khan vote was clearly stronger in outer London, but then it was to begin with. That said, it may have had an impact in councils bordering London. As ever, the media/social media echo chamber has distorted what everyday folk actually think.

It really hasn’t - Khan has done better in the outer boroughs post ULEZ than he did before. It’s therefore clear that it isn’t seen as a big deal by enough people to move the dial, let alone cause a protest vote/swing away from Khan - it’s a non issue.

Probably too many factors involved to be able to draw conclusions. There’s also the significant issue of an extremely unpopular Conservative party, and the fact that they keep fielding awful candidates for the mayor role.

Not sure what anyone feels Khan has actually achieved to date.

On the other hand I do agree with this - but that’s a reflection on the mayoralty generally which is a bit of a non job, than ULEZ specifically.

Hall was a laughable choice.

 

[hwl]

ULEZ was only expect to generate a surplus (after costs) till 2027 with the surplus reducing every year till then. Long term it is HM Treasury with it eyes on road user pricing (and supportive of the mayor and TfL).

In terms of next steps on Air Pollution, the target has to be* open fires especially wood burning and this can be seen with the mayoral advertising campaign that started in mid Feb for a month and went quiet during the election campaign. Legal responsibilities and enforcement lies with local councils (who have mostly being doing the minimum) not the GLA for this but they can fund advertising and local authority efforts, so expect to see more of this.

*nothing else would survive a JR as proportionate...

 

[Horizon22]

Some people do care. But it is a (very) vocal (small) minority.

And yes a lot of people are misinformed, considering the vast majority of vehicles were never going to be subject to the charge.

At some point - probably as electric cars creep up to becoming the majority - road charging will have to be seriously considered or the income steams will disappear. I imagine a large city council/authority would naturally be one of the first to trial this. That or the congestion charge in London gets expanded.

It really is far too simplistic to draw that conclusion; how can you possibly know the individual motivations behind 1m+ votes(and several million more choosing not to vote). The non-Khan vote was clearly stronger in outer London, but then it was to begin with. That said, it may have had an impact in councils bordering London. As ever, the media/social media echo chamber has distorted what everyday folk actually think.

In Bromley & Bexley - one of the most Tory areas of London with active ULEZ "protests" - the swing from Labour (Khan) to Conservative (Hall) was precisely 0.0%.

 

[43066]

In Bromley & Bexley - one of the most Tory areas of London with active ULEZ "protests" - the swing from Labour (Khan) to Conservative (Hall) was precisely 0.0%.

We’ve virtually all either got compliant petrol cars (even large capacity petrol engines aren’t caught as the focus is on particulate emissions), or newish diesels/hybrids/electrics.

Nobody living here drives diesels from pre 2015 (I obviously do, by only when at work, and they run on metal rails )…

 

[edwin_m]

Probably too many factors involved to be able to draw conclusions. There’s also the significant issue of an extremely unpopular Conservative party, and the fact that they keep fielding awful candidates for the mayor role.

Not sure what anyone feels Khan has actually achieved to date.

The other factor is likely to be the change to FPTP in Mayoral elections. I suspect many who would previously voted LibDem or Green, with Khan as a second choice, recognise their preferred party has no chance and voted for Kahn to ensure Susan Hall did not win. Not being a London voter I think Khan has done as well as can be expected in the circumstances but doesn't have much power in the face of a hostile government.

 

[HullRailMan]

Some people do care. But it is a (very) vocal (small) minority.

And yes a lot of people are misinformed, considering the vast majority of vehicles were never going to be subject to the charge.

At some point - probably as electric cars creep up to becoming the majority - road charging will have to be seriously considered or the income steams will disappear. I imagine a large city council/authority would naturally be one of the first to trial this. That or the congestion charge in London gets expanded.



In Bromley & Bexley - one of the most Tory areas of London with active ULEZ "protests" - the swing from Labour (Khan) to Conservative (Hall) was precisely 0.0%.

Which is what I said - the areas where Hall won were already blue to start with.

 

[Grimsby town]

I do think ULEZ and LTNs will have had an impact on the vote. The swing towards Labour was lower in London than in other cities but its fairly clear that its a small minority of Londoners that see it as a significant issue. Its not surprising when the majority of households in inner London don't have cars, and outer London 20-30% dont.

From what I've seen and read, a lot of opposition to ULEZ is in rural areas nowhere near London. These areas are really car dependent and worry the London ULEZ scheme is the first step to a country wide ULEZ. The government has certainly helped spread that fear. I've had first hand experience of transport engagement in the relatively rural North West where this has come up repeatedly.

 

[Meole]

Government required councils to address pollution aggressively.

 

[Magdalia]

One of the interesting features of the ULEZ debate is how it has become almost completely detached from its original purpose. For example, nobody here has spelled out that ULEZ is Ultra Low Emissions Zone, and only one has mentioned emissions.

People would do well to remember this case which illustrates why reducing emissions is important.

Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah: Air pollution a factor in girl's death, inquest finds

Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah was "living on a knife edge" before her fatal asthma attack, the inquest heard.

www.bbc.co.uk

A nine-year-old girl who died following an asthma attack has become the first person in the UK to have air pollution listed as a cause of death.
Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, who lived near the South Circular Road in Lewisham, south-east London, died in 2013.
Southwark Coroner's Court found that air pollution "made a material contribution" to Ella's death.

The London Mayor's quote, after the coroner's ruling, is here:

Sadiq Khan, who as mayor of London was named as an interested party in the inquest, called the result "a landmark moment".
Mr Khan said: "Today must be a turning point so that other families do not have to suffer the same heartbreak as Ella's family.
"Ministers and the previous mayor have acted too slowly in the past, but they must now learn the lessons from the coroner's ruling."

 

[43066]

Which is what I said - the areas where Hall won were already blue to start with.

Still missing the point that in the outer boroughs there was an either swing towards Labour even in the outer boroughs, or it remained neutral. There was no swing towards the Tories, and voter turnout was down; the Greens and Lib Dems also did better than last time and they are supportive of the scheme. In short there is absolutely no evidence of a ULEZ protest vote.

These areas are really car dependent and worry the London ULEZ scheme is the first step to a country wide ULEZ. The government has certainly helped spread that fear.

This is rather sensationalist. I’m not sure why there would be a “fear” other than a misplaced one if 99%+ of vehicles were complaint. It’s also unlikely you’ll get ULEZ schemes outside of major cities in the foreseeable future.

 

[Enthusiast]

It’s also unlikely you’ll get ULEZ schemes outside of major cities in the foreseeable future.

One already exists - in "London". Vast swathes of the outer London boroughs cover open countryside and farmland, nowhere near a major city. Some of these places are almost twenty miles from Central London. That's the distance from Bristol to Weston-Super-Mare. In some of these areas there is a greater risk of pollution from farm machinery than from cars and vans.

 

[43066]

One already exists - in "London". Vast swathes of the outer London boroughs cover open countryside and farmland, nowhere near a major city. Some of these places are almost twenty miles from Central London. That's the distance from Bristol to Weston-Super-Mare. In some of these areas there is a greater risk of pollution from farm machinery than from cars and vans.

Well, it’s all part of Greater London . But point taken re. parts of Bromley, and various other places.

 

[Grimsby town]

This is rather sensationalist. I’m not sure why there would be a “fear” other than a misplaced one if 99%+ of vehicles were complaint. It’s also unlikely you’ll get ULEZ schemes outside of major cities in the foreseeable future

It is misplaced fear but irrational fears are still fears. If the government was better at explaining why they are needed in a grown up way, the fears wouldn't exist. Instead it's decided to lean into those fears and make them a political issue.

 

[PeterC]

Well, it’s all part of Greater London . But point taken re. parts of Bromley, and various other places.

I am wondering how the boundary points were chosen. Looking where my mother lived in the North of Romford it's possible to drive from, say, Stapleford Abbotts to Brentwood through Havering and Noak Hill without touching the ULEZ.

Was there local involvement or were the sensible bits just a matter of a local connection by the guy with a map and a pencil?

 

[Peter Sarf]

I think, like me, there were many who were tempted to vote against the national government in power. I wonder how Sadiq would have fared if it was Labout who were in power nationally.

As for ULEZ - I do care and it was not popular with me as it has cost me a lot of money. Actually would have been cheaper for me to stick with the old banger I had. That is because of the low usage I strive for. It is a pity I still have to pay over £400 road tax and about £300 parking charges for a car I don't use much. Just because I don't use the car much does not mean I can manage without one. Not much has been done in Croydon to make a car less important - the opposite has happened.

As for pollution - I would like to stop all the dust we get in Croydon. Apparently from the planes that fly over head. I could do without the noise as well.

As someone who strives to be ecological I find it frustrating that so little is done to make it easier for people to be careful with the planet. Seems to be more of a stick than a carrot AND I see no effort made to make car use less important (out of town chopping on the increase).

I would love to see effort put into making it easier for people to be more environmentally responsible. For Croydon we used to have a garden waste recycling service. That got changed to a paid for service (no reduction in council tax). Now I notice more instances of people burning their garden rubbish (I can smell it and see the smoke in daytime).

I agree that the majority don't care BUT are we creating more and more dis-affected minorities ?.

 

[Energy]

That got changed to a paid for service (no reduction in council tax).

However, there have been reductions in government funding to councils. As such councils have prioritised schools and social care which is why roads have been left to deteriorate and green bins are now paid at many councils.