What's going to happen to the Class 222's after the Class 810's replace them?

[Class142sbad]

If needed, Please move

Will XC take them over? I know that GC are taking the Avanti 221's so not to GC. Or will scotrail take them for the inter7city trains or will it be scrap?

 

[JonathanH]

If needed, Please move

Will XC take them over? I know that GC are taking the Avanti 221's so not to GC. Or will scotrail take them for the inter7city trains or will it be scrap?

No one knows.

Future uses for class 220s/221s and 222s?

Only logical moves imo are XC? mods note - split from this thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/222-4-car-sets-to-become-5-car-by-may-22.225822/ SWR to replace the aging 158's or South Eastern to work the Uckfield services. I think XC will get the Avanti ones.

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[WAB]

If needed, Please move

Will XC take them over? I know that GC are taking the Avanti 221's so not to GC. Or will scotrail take them for the inter7city trains or will it be scrap?

They would quite neatly fit into the fleet at Scotrail, although it doesn't align with the end of the HSTs' leases. Rumours have been posted before about other TOCs being interested in them too...

XC are unlikely to take them unless they can get favourable prices on leases. As @Bletchleyite said, they could be diagrammed similarly to HSTs so no need to worry about compatability with Voyagers (although I suspect they'd prefer the remaining 10 221s for maintenance purposes and flexibility).

 

[Snow1964]

No one knows yet

GWR are also struggling to maintain services if they lose all their HSTs this year, so are retaining a few into 2024. It's not really clear how they will be covered with West Country passenger levels seeming to be fairly strong.

 

[bramling]

If needed, Please move

Will XC take them over? I know that GC are taking the Avanti 221's so not to GC. Or will scotrail take them for the inter7city trains or will it be scrap?

No one knows, or if they do they’re not saying.

There’s a few possibilities - ScotRail or XC are the obvious ones, but that’s all they are at the moment.

I wouldn’t be surprised they eventually end up at ScotRail replacing the HSTs, but there’s a number of reasons why replacing the HSTs isn’t a straightforward proposition.

 

[Nottingham59]

XC are unlikely to take them unless they can get favourable prices on leases.

I think that's going to be the deciding factor. If the leasing market were truly competitive, then the 222s would have a very low value, and would be leased out at very low cost. But the leasing companies know that releasing rolling stock at very low prices will undermine the value of all their other assets. So they won't do it. Like the 350/2s, the 222s will sit in a siding for a year, just in case any TOC/DfT is stupid enough to pay full price for them. And then I expect they will go for scrap.

 

[RailWonderer]

If XC can convince the DfT that binning their HSTs for more Voyagers will mean saving on maintenance costs and fuel and can get a good lease rate then there is a good chance we see them on XC.

 

[swt_passenger]

If XC can convince the DfT that binning their HSTs for more Voyagers will mean saving on maintenance costs and fuel and can get a good lease rate then there is a good chance we see them on XC.

Other way round surely? The DfT have already ‘convinced’ XC to bin the HSTs without any planned replacement?

 

[Energy]

Other way round surely? The DfT have already ‘convinced’ XC to bin the HSTs without any planned replacement?

I wouldn't say convinced... more told.

 

[Snow1964]

I think that's going to be the deciding factor. If the leasing market were truly competitive, then the 222s would have a very low value, and would be leased out at very low cost. But the leasing companies know that releasing rolling stock at very low prices will undermine the value of all their other assets. So they won't do it. Like the 350/2s, the 222s will sit in a siding for a year, just in case any TOC/DfT is stupid enough to pay full price for them. And then I expect they will go for scrap.

Depends a lot on the book value in Leasing companies accounts. If they get parked with no forward commitment then standard accounting practice is to provide a diminution of value (their P&L account is charged with a loss, to reduce value to scrap value). If they subsequently get used then can write back the value.

If the original estimate was a 30-35 year life, for 2005 purchases, might still be in books at about 35-45% of purchase value. That is a hefty P&L hit if they store them with no known future.

They might prefer to lease them at a lower rate and not take P&L hit .

 

[JonathanH]

I think that's going to be the deciding factor. If the leasing market were truly competitive, then the 222s would have a very low value, and would be leased out at very low cost. But the leasing companies know that releasing rolling stock at very low prices will undermine the value of all their other assets.

Don't forget that it isn't just lease cost involved here. Maintenance costs, siding capacity, driver training, fuel are all important considerations as well, as is timetabling.

 

[Nottingham59]

They might prefer to lease them at a lower rate and not take P&L hit

They could do, but I understand that's not happening at the moment. These forums are full of stories of rolling stock being sent to the scrapyard when they still have 10 or 20 years of useable life left in them. I may be wroing of course, but this is my understanding of why that is.

I would expect that the leasing companies will be driven by future cash flows, rather than by accounting asset value. (Though they may well record an elevated asset values for the 222s, as this would help them to "justify" their high leasing charges, to DfT and to the public.)

But I would still expect the leasing companies to hold out for high leasing charges for old stock like 222s. They know full well that within a year or two, the DfT is going to bow to political pressure and simply instruct a captive ToC to lease the 222s, at whatever price is being asked; or else instruct them to order more new stock instead. Which will be leased, of course. So whichever way DfT jumps, the leascos will win by holding out for higher leasing prices for old stock.

Remember, the economic incentives on leasing companies are not the same as those of the taxpaying and travelling public.

 

[JonathanH]

These forums are full of stories of rolling stock being sent to the scrapyard when they still have 10 or 20 years of useable life left in them.

Where that happens, it is because the trains need substantial modifications or overhauls to make them suitable for another operator. The decision for the lease company is whether it can charge a high enough lease to pay for that work.

The 222s will need some work before being used elsewhere with the interiors getting tired after intensive work on the Midland route.

They know full well that within a year or two, the DfT is going to bow to political pressure and simply instruct a captive ToC to lease the 222s, at whatever price is being asked; or else instruct them to order more new stock instead.

Is that true? The Treasury is rather more thick skinned than giving in to political pressure.

If you believe these forums, there has been pressure to improve capacity on XC for the last 20 years, but most of the changes since then have just been tinkering at the edges - eg concentration on core routes. As it was posted in another thread, XC have set aside the four 220s needed to replace the HSTs later this year rather than bringing in more rolling stock. It certainly isn't inevitable that the 222s will end up there.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

XC aside, how serious are these apparent rumours about them going to Chiltern that was discussed in another thread? As over specified as they'd be, I'd consider them a nice train to take to Birmingham. I'd certainly prefer it to a 168 or 350 personally.

 

[liamf656]

XC aside, how serious are these apparent rumours about them going to Chiltern that was discussed in another thread?

I wouldn’t count on it. They’d be way too expensive and unsuitable to run at Chiltern, and there are active plans for the 222 fleet to go into cold storage

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I wouldn’t count on it. They’d be way too expensive and unsuitable to run at Chiltern, and there are active plans for the 222 fleet to go into cold storage

Pardon?

 

[liamf656]

Pardon?

Class 810 and Class 222 Vehicle Storage [Tender Notice]

The contract is for the storage of up to 17, 5 car Class 810 vehicles prior to entry into service. ... A Tender Notice by Abellio East Midlands. Value £900K.

bidstats.uk

The contract is for the storage of up to 17, 5 car Class 810 vehicles prior to entry into service. As the vehicles enter into service the storage will then be required for a 5/7 car Class 222 vehicle to support the fleet cascade plan as they exit operational services. Split into 2 lots, Lot 1 warm storage of Class 810 Vehicles, Lot 2 is for cold storage of Class 222 Vehicles.

Bit in bold is worth noting

Cold storage of Class 222 vehicles

• Value: £120K

Cold storage of up to 17, Class 222, 7 and 5 car units. The facility must have access to water supply including drainage The facility must be secure with a recordable CCTV System covering the entire site. Fully fenced to a minimum height of 10 metres. 28 day wheel rotation services will be required. including access to resource to undertake all fitness for runing checks prior to trainset departure.

Given that the tender only specifies up to 17 Class 810 units then subsequently up to 17 Class 222 units I’m unsure where the rest of the 222 fleet will go. Although I’m not fully clued up on this sort of thing the 28 day wheel rotation must be a good sign, unless anyone can explain further?

 

[Stephen42]

Class 810 and Class 222 Vehicle Storage [Tender Notice]

The contract is for the storage of up to 17, 5 car Class 810 vehicles prior to entry into service. ... A Tender Notice by Abellio East Midlands. Value £900K.

bidstats.uk

Bit in bold is worth noting



Given that the tender only specifies up to 17 Class 810 units then subsequently up to 17 Class 222 units I’m unsure where the rest of the 222 fleet will go. Although I’m not fully clued up on this sort of thing the 28 day wheel rotation must be a good sign, unless anyone can explain further?

I'd imagine it's that East Midlands has stabling space that could house the remaining 8 units, but they don't have enough space for both fleets. Testing and staff training takes a while so often there's quite a few units delivered before new classes are working in passenger service. Lot 1 is so that the new 810s are in warm storage ready for the ramp up phase where diagrams are switched to the new units every so often.

Once that's happening in sufficient numbers Lot 2 is so that stood down Class 222 can be stored until the lease ends which is usually the same date for all units. They'll still need to be in good condition on return to the fleet owner who may try to find other uses for them rather than scrap. Also the tender was switched to require warm storage for the Class 222 anyway.

 

[Failed Unit]

I don't know what the leasing charge is for the 222s versus the 220 / 221. But itis possible that XC could take the 222s and replace some of the 220 / 221 if they save money on the leasing costs. I understand the 222s are cheaper to run because of the weight difference. Dropping a 4 car Voyager and replacing with a 5 car 222 is also increasing capacity.

Someone may know the lease prices, but if the 222s are less to lease the DfT may justify this change (although staff training costs could easily negate this saving). Growth with the extra car could also factor into this. Having the 7 cars would help the busier trains.

But then they could go to an open access operator that doesn't operate yet.

 

[12LDA28C]

XC aside, how serious are these apparent rumours about them going to Chiltern that was discussed in another thread? As over specified as they'd be, I'd consider them a nice train to take to Birmingham. I'd certainly prefer it to a 168 or 350 personally.

Latest rumour is that they are definitely not going to Chiltern as the ROSCO has another operator already lined up to take the whole fleet, as opposed to Chiltern just taking a handful of units to replace the 68s.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Latest rumour is that they are definitely not going to Chiltern as the ROSCO has another operator already lined up to take the whole fleet, as opposed to Chiltern just taking a handful of units to replace the 68s.

Would you please consider telling me which operator that is - or by DM if you prefer - as that is an unbearable cliffhanger you've just left me on My all time favourite diesel fleet!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Would you please consider telling me which operator that is - or by DM if you prefer - as that is an unbearable cliffhanger you've just left me on My all time favourite diesel fleet!

I can think of only two TOCs that would make sensible use of all of them.

One is XC, but as the Government don't like paying for any XC improvements so I'd be surprised. At best I can see them getting the balance of the Avanti 221s, but probably more likely nowt.

The other is ScotRail, to replace the HSTs and perhaps some 170s as well. That's where my bet would go.

The other TOCs who might find them useful would only need them in smaller numbers, not the whole lot. There was a rumour about TPE but I'd be surprised, their operation is complex enough without adding a 5th class.

 

[12LDA28C]

Would you please consider telling me which operator that is - or by DM if you prefer - as that is an unbearable cliffhanger you've just left me on My all time favourite diesel fleet!

Already mentioned in post #1, #3, #5 and now #22.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I can think of only two TOCs that would make sensible use of all of them.

One is XC, but as the Government don't like paying for any XC improvements so I'd be surprised. At best I can see them getting the balance of the Avanti 221s, but probably more likely nowt.

The other is ScotRail, to replace the HSTs and perhaps some 170s as well. That's where my bet would go.

The other TOCs who might find them useful would only need them in smaller numbers, not the whole lot.

You don't know that. The government are taking away the ancient HSTs, yes, and they're giving Grand Central Voyagers that might have worked well on XC - not all of them mind - yes, but that doesn't mean they won't allow any improvements. They may simply believe EMR's redundant fleet of Meridians to make more sense than HSTs.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==

Already mentioned in post #1, #3, #5 and now #22.

Those posts are members discussing the possibilities of ScotRail or XC. They certainly don't suggest all the 222s are lined up to be taken by one of them, so I don't think it's fair for me to have expected to known which TOC you meant from those

Which of the two sorry?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Great. I therefore look forward to luxury whenever I go from Basingstoke to Reading, which I do whenever I'm not at uni and need the Apple store

I'd probably suggest you might be more likely to see them if you took a trip to the land of whisky and big hills...

The HSTs are not going well for ScotRail - they're unreliable for one, and for another they've got ASLEF threatening a boycott on safety grounds.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==

You don't know that. The government are taking away the ancient HSTs, yes, and they're giving Grand Central Voyagers that might have worked well on XC - not all of them mind - yes, but that doesn't mean they won't allow any improvements. They may simply believe EMR's redundant fleet of Meridians to make more sense than HSTs.

They're not "giving" GC anything. GC (Arriva) and the ROSCO are private companies. They have negotiated a lease, it seems. The Government has nothing to do with it. It wouldn't be the first time a TOC was screwed over by another TOC getting in there first.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I'd probably suggest you might be more likely to see them if you took a trip to the land of whisky and big hills...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==

Yes I just realised that ScotRail was also mentioned alongside XC. I hadn't realised it was more than just speculation.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==

They're not "giving" GC anything. GC (Arriva) and the ROSCO are private companies. They have negotiated a lease, it seems. The Government has nothing to do with it. It wouldn't be the first time a TOC was screwed over by another TOC getting in there first.

Besides the point. What I was saying was, should you use the fact XC are not getting all Avanti's Voyagers as an example that they don't want to give XC any fleet enhancements, that wouldn't be a fair point to make.

the land of whisky

@Butts' seat in the LNER first carriage?

 

[12LDA28C]

I'd probably suggest you might be more likely to see them if you took a trip to the land of whisky and big hills...


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==

Indeed, if the rumours are to be believed.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 12 Jun 2023 ==

Those posts are members discussing the possibilities of ScotRail or XC. They certainly don't suggest all the 222s are lined up to be taken by one of them, so I don't think it's fair for me to have expected to known which TOC you meant from those

Which of the two sorry?

See above!

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Indeed, if the rumours are to be believed.

Major upgrade in my view then, though I know few will agree.
Mind you, the lovely warm red interiors would then no doubt go a drab blue.

 

[D365]

You don't know that. The government are taking away the ancient HSTs, yes, and they're giving Grand Central Voyagers that might have worked well on XC - not all of them mind - yes, but that doesn't mean they won't allow any improvements.

I wasn't aware that the DfT had influence over the rolling stock allocations of non-franchised operators.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Can the OP or a mod please edit the title of this topic? The way it's written makes no sense at all. It's like asking what will happen to Pacers after the 195s are worn out.