A somewhat rhetorical question might be; how much weight do TOC's place to the economics of such a decision and do all TOC's place a similar value to those economics?
Indeed. A lot may depend on the TOC's priorities and position, so that (as an example) ATW may make decisions that Northern Rail would never make.
I think part of the problem here is to maintain punctuality figures, and EMT is very proud of their punctuality figures it seems, and I will grant it to EMT, their punctuality is good!
Punctuality figures, and the possible penalties for a late service, undoubtedly figure in the decision making process.
At the end of the day it boils down to money. Delaying a train results in whoever caused the delay paying a penalty for it. How much it costs depends on the route and time of day, so it might be something like £5 a minute for Newark - Lincoln off-peak, but £200+ a minute for the Thameslink core in the peaks. (Not actual figures AFAIK, but it gives a rough idea of the sort of scale).
If a TOC decides to hold a service for a connection, the TOC that makes the decision is then regarded as the cause of the delay to that service, and not the TOC whose train was delayed. So there's furthe rpressure not to wait.
Would be interesting to see what the delay cost is compared to having to shell out compensation for delayed passengers.
Sadly, such figures are normally regarded as commercially sensitive, which is a shame as transparency would help passengers understand what leads to decisions being made.
It may also lead to pressure for the current system of penalties to be overhauled!
I presume that any delay cost could be attributed to the reason for the delay of the intercity - points near Wakefield.
Of course I have no idea of the requirements of any but one of the passengers. However, her journey to Lincoln was delayed by an hour, though I doubt that would match any official definition. Does anyone know at what point delays are assessed? Does a delayed departure incur "penalty points", or is it the lateness at some point on the journey? If the latter, I presume (from the way that recovery time works) that that would be at the end of the journey. So it is conceivable, if not likely, that a 5 minute late departure might not register in any assessment of delay cost. In which case, EMT lose nothing by a short delay in starting, and gain in PR.
I think it's the latter. Locally, ATW trains are regularly held at Swansea for 5-10 mins when the incoming London is slightly late. There does seem to be some sort of cut off time when the service won't wait, and I've always thought that this would be at a point wher eit becomes unlikely that the loss in time can be recovered using timetables allowances and cutting turn around time to the bone.
One thing no TOC wants to do is cause problems for itself later in the diagram!
Another thing that causes problems here are the single line sections. Obviously, if a service cannto navigate the section before another train needs it, the risk is delaying that service or increasing the delay to the one laready held back. The potential for knock on effects is huge either way!
PR is debatable. I've been on a full train for Fishguard Harbour which has been delayed to allow a dozen people to connect. Some of the 100+ people on board have not been at all impressed by this (while some of us aren't too upset as we appreciate it could have been us on the other train!) so the overall effect might have been 12 very happy customers and 30 unhappy ones, with Greenback and 75* others neutral!
*Figures completely made up and for illustrative purposes only!
