Will Heathrow Express survive once Crossrail is running in full?

[43066]

Moderator note - split from:

Crossrail - Through Running confirmed for November

Moderator note : split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/crossrail-operating-discussion-and-opening-day-24th-may.232157/ Crossrail releases its through running date on Social Media.

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I am looking forward to it never using HEX again.

Last time I used it (going back a few years now) I paid for a HEX only ticket, only to find I’d just missed it and was unable to use the (much cheaper) Connect service!

I can’t see it surviving post Crossrail.

 

[Failed Unit]

Last time I used it (going back a few years now) I paid for a HEX only ticket, only to find I’d just missed it and was unable to use the (much cheaper) Connect service!

I can’t see it surviving post Crossrail.

I agree, I think that Cross Rail will need to add more services to meet the demand for Airport passengers. Hex is too expensive for just a 387. My personal experiences are not typical but my office is in the City. Most people travelling from the West hate the Circle line part of the journey and that is gone. Even people heading to Blackfriars (another area I know I lot of people doing the journey) The change at Farringdon will beat the Circle line via Victoria.

I know people seem to think the HeX / Taxi combination will still continue for people wanting the West end. I am not so sure. Maybe people won't want to change onto a Tube, but lots of Taxi's pass Tottenham Court Road if they don't want to use the Northern Line.

 

[JaJaWa]

Last time I used it (going back a few years now) I paid for a HEX only ticket, only to find I’d just missed it and was unable to use the (much cheaper) Connect service!

I can’t see it surviving post Crossrail.

When it was Heathrow Connect, Heathrow Express tickets were valid. This only stopped when the service passed to TfL Rail who didn't receive any income from those tickets. But from that point you could touch in with an Oyster / contactless card and board the first train anyway.

 

[miklcct]

I can’t see it surviving post Crossrail.

Even the Gatwick Express, which is a total scam (taking the same time on the same track as Southern services), has survived the pandemic.

The EMR Connect, which is a de-facto Luton Express, still exists alongside the slower Thameslink which runs direct into the city.

I can definitely still see the value of Heathrow Express when it is guaranteed to overtake an Elizabeth line train in its journey.

 

[WesternBiker]

Last time I used it (going back a few years now) I paid for a HEX only ticket, only to find I’d just missed it and was unable to use the (much cheaper) Connect service!

I can’t see it surviving post Crossrail.

I can't either for domestic users, but it will be interesting to see what the demand is from those visiting the UK. I suspect many put quite a premium on a simple, dedicated service with just one destination. American friends, in particular, seem cautious about taking stopping services - one actually asked me whether the Piccadilly line went through any "unsafe neighbourhoods".

Also, my own experience is that on all long-distance flights arriving at Heathrow, the cabin crew have been enthusiastically flogging HEX tickets ("cheaper than buying at the airport").

 

[Thirteen]

The Heathrow Express will survive in the same way that the Gatwick Express and Stansted Express survive. There is a market for a quicker, non stop service and I suspect it's more beneficial to have tourists use the Express services anyway.

 

[Techniquest]

That isn't my experience on BA into Heathrow. Regarding HeX in the future, well I still put a value on it remaining. An express run to Paddington, when I last needed to do it back in March was so welcome that I even paid the extra for First Class. I was the only one there who had actually paid for it, the others were let off paying so they didn't risk injury by moving the short distance while the train was moving I would imagine the express service will still get plenty of custom in the coming years, the train I did (late evening arrival in Paddington, gone half 9 at night at least) had a good size crowd getting off in Paddington. Whether or not they were all aware of the cheaper options, I have no idea, but it was a good load.

At some point, I will do a 345 to Heathrow for the novelty of it, but given the choice I'd rather be on Heathrow Express.

As for the through running, I'm certainly looking forward to it despite this whole 7 minutes of padding and so on. I just want to do it for the new track, it's not a journey I'll need to do all that often so the padded temporary timetable won't affect me too much.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Heathrow Express will survive in the same way that the Gatwick Express and Stansted Express survive. There is a market for a quicker, non stop service and I suspect it's more beneficial to have tourists use the Express services anyway.

GatEx is really the Brighton Express, and StanEx is a regular regional service with a fancy name.

 

[jfollows]

There's little chance I would use it, coming from Euston, I'm likely to go to Tottenham Court Road and change for a through train on the Elizabeth Line now.
In the past, one route was Euston Square to Paddington, then change, and I have used Heathrow Express then.
Otherwise walk to Russell Square or Northern Line to Leicester Square for Piccadilly line in the past.
But I suspect there will be a lot of similar journeys to mine in which once you're already easily on a through train to Heathrow anyway there's little point in changing onto Heathrow Express. For me and for many, minimising walking distance will be important too, so I'll find out if I try the change at Tottenham Court Road how bad it is ...
Heathrow Express will probably survive for Londoners who get a taxi from Paddington to their final destination, I guess.

 

[Kite159]

It might be forced to drop the premium charged over the metro spec toiletless & luggage space less stopper (can't relax when you need to keep your eye on the suitcase just in case it gets stolen by someone alighting at Hanwell etc).

Especially when you have to wait for the correct Elizabeth Line service to roll in at a busy Paddington EL station, is that a Heathrow train? Nope it's a Maidenhead. Ah here comes a Heathrow train, but it's full & standing all the way to Southall. Next time that businessperson will just use the taxi

 

[Bletchleyite]

It might be forced to drop the premium charged over the metro spec toiletless & luggage space less stopper (can't relax when you need to keep your eye on the suitcase just in case it gets stolen by someone alighting at Hanwell etc).

Eh? You'll just have it at your feet on the inward facing layout.

 

[Kite159]

Eh? You'll just have it at your feet on the inward facing layout.

Assuming you are lucky enough to get a seat

 

[matt_world2004]

It might be forced to drop the premium charged over the metro spec toiletless & luggage space less stopper (can't relax when you need to keep your eye on the suitcase just in case it gets stolen by someone alighting at Hanwell etc).

Especially when you have to wait for the correct Elizabeth Line service to roll in at a busy Paddington EL station, is that a Heathrow train? Nope it's a Maidenhead. Ah here comes a Heathrow train, but it's full & standing all the way to Southall. Next time that businessperson will just use the taxi

Doesn't the same thing apply.at paddington mainline too. Is that a Heathrow train , no it's going to Bristol .,is that a Heathrow train. No it's going to Didcot parkway

Plus the added inconveniance of trying to find the platforms for the Heathrow trains at paddington mainline

 

[miklcct]

I have experience of flying out from Heathrow two times, but none into it at all except my initial landing into the UK. The first time was before Crossrail opening and the second time was after Crossrail opening, but before through running.

The first time I was doing it was as part of a longer journey from Folkestone, having used the HS1 to St Pancras. At that time I was not in a great hurry but I didn't like the idea of sitting in a crowded tube train for a long time with so many stops en-route, so I decided to go to Paddington on the sub-surface line. When I arrived Paddington there was an Elizabeth line train for Heathrow departing soon. Given the price difference between the Heathrow Express and the Elizabeth line (including the fact that a through fare would be charged changing onto the Elizabeth line but a separate fare on the Heathrow Express), I got on the Elizabeth line train to the airport despite the fact that it would be passed by the next Heathrow Express train.

The second time was from North London outside zone 1. At that time the normal option, if using the mainline rail to the airport, was to take the Thameslink to Farringdon then the Elizabeth line to Paddington (through running hadn't begun yet). However, compared to the non-zone 1 tube fare, I didn't even want to pay such fare at all so I ended up making a convoluted journey using only the tube and Overground to avoid zone 1, paying a fare which was less than a single bus ride to the airport.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

Especially when you have to wait for the correct Elizabeth Line service to roll in at a busy Paddington EL station, is that a Heathrow train? Nope it's a Maidenhead. Ah here comes a Heathrow train, but it's full & standing all the way to Southall. Next time that businessperson will just use the taxi

Perhaps, but the question is then how much Heathrow traffic originates from Paddington, in preference to another Elizabeth Line station.

Once Old Oak Common has opened, my guess would be "not much".

 

[Winthorpe]

One thing that counts against the EL class 345s is the lack of plug sockets/ USB chargers.

I know it is a short journey, but having the option to charge a phone/laptop after a flight is handy.

I’m sure there is a plan to retrofit the 345s with USB ports at some point. But it’s a small disadvantage compared with HX right now.

 

[XAM2175]

Hex is too expensive for just a 387.

It might be forced to drop the premium charged over the metro spec toiletless & luggage space less

No normals give a toss about the exact specs of the stock.

I can't either for domestic users, but it will be interesting to see what the demand is from those visiting the UK. I suspect many put quite a premium on a simple, dedicated service with just one destination. American friends, in particular, seem cautious about taking stopping services - one actually asked me whether the Piccadilly line went through any "unsafe neighbourhoods".

Bingo. It has the simplicity of "starts at airport, goes only to Paddington" or vice-versa that is comforting to those unfamiliar to using the system, and I suspect that they sell tickets in advance online helps customers feel reassured too.

That still might not be enough for it to survive long-term once the Elizabeth line starts through-running (offering better access to accommodation in other parts of London) and everybody gets used to having that option, but I certainly don't foresee HX vanishing anytime soon.

 

[Thirteen]

One thing that counts against the EL class 345s is the lack of plug sockets/ USB chargers.

I know it is a short journey, but having the option to charge a phone/laptop after a flight is handy.

I’m sure there is a plan to retrofit the 345s with USB ports at some point. But it’s a small disadvantage compared with HX right now.

I would imagine we'll probably see something similar to the Class 710s on the 345s eventually.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Assuming you are lucky enough to get a seat

You'll get a seat boarding at Heathrow, certainly, it's the end of the line.

The other way maybe less so I suppose.

Perhaps, but the question is then how much Heathrow traffic originates from Paddington, in preference to another Elizabeth Line station.

Once Old Oak Common has opened, my guess would be "not much".

Paddington is to be fair slightly useful - there are a lot of hotels there. But for anywhere else in central London it's somewhat in the sticks.

 

[Kite159]

Doesn't the same thing apply.at paddington mainline too. Is that a Heathrow train , no it's going to Bristol .,is that a Heathrow train. No it's going to Didcot parkway

Plus the added inconveniance of trying to find the platforms for the Heathrow trains at paddington mainline

Or those passengers will simply go towards the train which says "Heathrow Express" where they can take a seat, put luggage on the overhead racks, maybe even charge their device or go to the toilet!

Such luxuries which don't exist on the metro spec cattle trucks on the Elizabeth Line as it calls at Acton Main Line, West Ealing etc before sitting outside Paddington for up to 7 minutes awaiting the path into the tunnel.

 

[matt_world2004]

Or those passengers will simply go towards the train which says "Heathrow Express" where they can take a seat, put luggage on the overhead racks, maybe even charge their device or go to the toilet!

Such luxuries which don't exist on the metro spec cattle trucks on the Elizabeth Line as it calls at Acton Main Line, West Ealing etc before sitting outside Paddington for up to 7 minutes awaiting the path into the tunnel.

How can you see what each train says from the main concourse at paddington you need to be very close to the gateline of each individual platform to make out which train is the Heathrow express and which one is not.

Also none of the Heathrow trains are timetabled to wait 7 minutes outside the tunnel before approaching paddington crossrail. (some reading ones are) and no trains will wait 7 minutes come may 2023.

According to the national rail entry and exit figures for 2020-2021 approximately 10-20 times more people took the Piccadilly line to the airport than the Heathrow express and Elizabeth Line combined. Unfortunately I cannot find any pre-covid figures for the Heathrow rail stations for a more representative sample. . It seems people value price over carriage size and speed in most circumstances

Edit in the 2019-2020 financial year which was more marginally effected by COVID . Heathrow terminals 2.3 (Hex /EL station) had 3.9 million passengers compared to 7.8 million for the piccadilly line.

 

[cle]

How can you see what each train says from the main concourse at paddington you need to be very close to the gateline of each individual platform to make out which train is the Heathrow express and which one is not.

Also none of the Heathrow trains are timetabled to wait 7 minutes outside the tunnel before approaching paddington crossrail. (some reading ones are) and no trains will wait 7 minutes come may 2023.

According to the national rail entry and exit figures for 2020-2021 approximately 10-20 times more people took the Piccadilly line to the airport than the Heathrow express and Elizabeth Line combined. Unfortunately I cannot find any pre-covid figures for the Heathrow rail stations for a more representative sample. . It seems people value price over carriage size and speed in most circumstances

Edit in the 2019-2020 financial year which was more marginally effected by COVID . Heathrow terminals 2.3 (Hex /EL station) had 3.9 million passengers compared to 7.8 million for the piccadilly line.

I think this will change somewhat (hopefully both will increase) - worth always bearing in mind that airport workers are like 75%+ of public transport users to airports, as they commute 'daily', vs one-offs on HEx. The Piccadilly line is much cheaper for a daily commute, and serves Hounslow where many workers live. The buses are even more so.

That said, the slow services play this role too and Crossrail will pick these up and likely add a good amount once the full frequencies are online.

 

[matt_world2004]

I think this will change somewhat (hopefully both will increase) - worth always bearing in mind that airport workers are like 75%+ of public transport users to airports, as they commute 'daily', vs one-offs on HEx. The Piccadilly line is much cheaper for a daily commute, and serves Hounslow where many workers live. The buses are even more so.

That said, the slow services play this role too and Crossrail will pick these up and likely add a good amount once the full frequencies are online.

For airport workers the Elizabeth line and Heathrow express is much cheaper for the time periods quoted. Until December 2021 airport workers could buy a ticket from an intermediate station on the GWML Hayes -Acton Mainline and West Drayton to Slough for 75p this ended at some point when the deal between Heathrow express and tfl came to an end. the tickets were not just available to direct employees of the airport but also people who worked in associated businesses near the airport like hotel workers.

 

[cle]

Worth also noting re the Picc purpose - Hatton Cross is and will remain lot more convenient for BA workers (Waterside, vs terminal-based) - and others too.

 

[Horizon22]

Moderator note - split from:

Crossrail - Through Running confirmed for November

Moderator note : split from https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/crossrail-operating-discussion-and-opening-day-24th-may.232157/ Crossrail releases its through running date on Social Media.

www.railforums.co.uk

Last time I used it (going back a few years now) I paid for a HEX only ticket, only to find I’d just missed it and was unable to use the (much cheaper) Connect service!

I can’t see it surviving post Crossrail.

I dunno they do like those fast paths!

It is purely a financial thing; if Heathrow Airport think its not making money they will reduce the service or cut it completely. That being said they certainly do stack things in their favour at the airport; bare minimum Elizabeth line advertisin - and only because they have to and also highly visible ticket staff.

 

[43066]

The Heathrow Express will survive in the same way that the Gatwick Express and Stansted Express survive. There is a market for a quicker, non stop service and I suspect it's more beneficial to have tourists use the Express services anyway.

The Stansted and Gatwick Express both serve central London (PAD really isn’t in central London). Both also serve destinations other than their respective airports.

The EMR Connect, which is a de-facto Luton Express, still exists alongside the slower Thameslink which runs direct into the city.

The EMR connect service was recently introduced and is a regional express service which happens to call at Luton airport first, rather than a dedicated airport express. In fact the vast majority of passengers who use it are not for the airport, albeit there’s scope for airport traffic to grow significantly, especially with the new transit shuttle.

I dunno they do like those fast paths!

It is purely a financial thing; if Heathrow Airport think its not making money they will reduce the service or cut it completely. That being said they certainly do stack things in their favour at the airport; bare minimum Elizabeth line advertisin - and only because they have to and also highly visible ticket staff.

I’d understood HEX had been spun into GWR, presumably giving scope to simply transition the stock and staff onto GWR suburban services?

I’m not at all clear on the contractual arrangements but, since Heathrow own the airport railway infrastructure, do they not derive some financial benefit from the Elizabeth Line?

 

[Horizon22]

I’d understood HEX had been spun into GWR, presumably giving scope to simply transition the stock and staff onto GWR suburban services?

I’m not at all clear on the contractual arrangements, but, since Heathrow own the airport railway infrastructure, do they not derive some financial benefit from the Elizabeth Line?

Yes although they run as a fast service; there is no suburban GWR service to heathrow. Stock could definitely been moved back to suburban services although it basically only serves Didcot Parkway & Reading-Newbury at the moment as Elizabeth line takes on all the inner Thames Valley work under the wires; might need some electrification to Oxford and Bedwyn first.

They do get some benefit yes as a track access agreement which they really charge a lot for. At the same time also selling a bunch of HeX tickets will be very beneficial; the money is made through the track access so they don't really care if the Elizabeth line trains run with nobody on-board from a financial perspective I guess!

 

[yorkie]

Even the Gatwick Express, which is a total scam (taking the same time on the same track as Southern services), has survived the pandemic.

These days GX is merely a brand name which happens to be used for London to Brighton express services; it's not a valid comparison with the situation at Heathrow, which is completely different! The tail may be wagging the dog in certain respects regarding GX but it's an entirely different argument.

The EMR Connect, which is a de-facto Luton Express, still exists alongside the slower Thameslink which runs direct into the city.

Again this is not in any way a sensible comparison; where do you think Heathrow Express goes beyond Heathrow? EMR Connect serves Luton Airport, Luton, Bedford, Wellingborough, Kettering and Corby. Where is the similarity with HEX?

 

[matt_world2004]

Worth also noting re the Picc purpose - Hatton Cross is and will remain lot more convenient for BA workers (Waterside, vs terminal-based) - and others too.

The figures quoted were for Heathrow Terminals 2,3 only not Hatton Cross or other related stations

 

[43066]

GX is merely a brand name which happens to be used for the London to Brighton express services; it's not a valid comparison with the situation at Heathrow, which is completely different!

Of course Gatwick Express started life as an identical concept to Heathrow Express, with dedicated stock and crews operating an airport only express shuttle primarily aimed at transatlantic business travellers. Subsequent changes in international air traffic agreements have meant Gatwick is now mostly a charter and low cost airline hub, catering for relatively few business travellers, hence GTR expanding the services to Brighton to support the Southern branded BML services.

There is a good argument for dispensing with the brand entirely as, these days, it’s little more than an excuse for GTR to fleece unsuspecting tourists!

Detailed discussion of Gatex is off topic for this thread, but it shows how airport specific services can evolve in light of changing useage patterns. It certainly presents an interesting comparison to HEX, with Heathrow at least retaining its premium business travellers. HEX to PAD and then a cab is clearly attractive over taking the Piccadilly line, but Crossrail direct from the airport to the west end/city/Canary Wharf will be a *lot* quicker…