What's driving the day in Westminster. Politics and policymaking in the UK capital, by Alex Wickham.
www.politico.eu
OFF THE RAILS: Boris Johnson admitted to Conservative MPs last night that he had “crashed the car into a ditch” by allowing the Owen Paterson lobbying scandal to explode into a full-blown sleaze saga. The revelations about Tory MPs’ outside interests that culminated in Wednesday night’s vote to toughen the rules may have lasting political consequences for Downing Street, both in terms of the mutinous backbench mood and the questions raised over how serious Johnson is about passing genuine standards reforms any time soon. Today, however, the news turns from beltway politics to a policy announcement that will affect millions of people across the country, as the government unveils its controversial Integrated Rail Plan to bring high speed train travel to the Midlands and the North. There have been days of speculation that the prime minister is set to break commitments on the eastern leg of High Speed 2 and the Northern Powerhouse Rail project. Playbook has the scoop on what’s coming today.
What the PM will say: Johnson has written a foreword to the document where he will directly address his decision to scrap the original plans for the HS2 eastern leg and Northern Powerhouse rail (which would have seen a high speed line from Birmingham to Leeds and another between Leeds and Manchester). The PM will argue the new plan means quicker benefits and better services for people across the North and Midlands: “Some have demanded that we rigidly stick to the old plans, however long they take and however much they cost and whoever they leave behind. Some have pre-emptively denounced any departure from those plans as a betrayal of levelling up. But those who say these things are, in effect, condemning the North and the East Midlands to get nothing for 20 years. Levelling up cannot wait that long. And it has to deliver benefits for everyone.” Expect to hear lots of this sort of thing from the PM and government ministers today as they defend themselves from intense criticism from northern leaders and newspapers.
Timings: Transport Secretary Grant Shapps will announce the long-awaited package to the Commons at around 10.30 a.m., with the (very long) Integrated Rail Plan published online simultaneously. The PM is on a series of rail-related visits today where he will speak to the media.
What we’re getting: Playbook has the final details of the three new high speed rail lines to be announced today. The first connects Crewe and Manchester, as expected. The second runs from Birmingham to the East Midlands Hub near Nottingham — it will no longer go all the way to Leeds as the “full fat HS2” plan proposed. The third is the so-called Northern Powerhouse Rail line between Leeds and Manchester, half of which will be a new high speed line, and the other half of which will consist of upgrades. The original proposal consisted of a new line the whole way, running through Bradford, which Playbook can confirm now doesn’t get a stop.
The upgrades: The announcement will contain three proposals to improve existing lines. There will be full electrification of the Midland Main Line from London St Pancras to Sheffield. There will be full electrification of the Transpennine main line. And there will be upgrades to the East Coast Main Line — things like removing level crossings that ministers say will reduce journey times to the north east.
Promise broken on Northern Powerhouse Rail? The 2019 Tory manifesto committed to “building Northern Powerhouse Rail between Leeds and Manchester,” while Johnson said in July that year: “I am going to deliver on my commitment to that vision with a pledge to fund the Leeds to Manchester route.” Whitehall insiders last night said Johnson was “bullish” about the new plan and would insist he has not broken any promises on NPR. Former Cabinet Minister Robert Jenrick told ITV’s Robert Peston last night: “If NPR doesn’t go ahead there will be legitimate disappointment.”
Why the PM will say the new plan is worth it: A Whitehall insider tells Playbook that today’s plan will start delivering benefits much quicker than under the old plan, with huge savings and “the same, similar or faster journey times to the original plans.” The initial Northern Powerhouse Rail program would have seen a trip from Manchester to Leeds take 29 and a half minutes. Today, with the half and half option, ministers will commit to the journey taking 33 minutes. They will argue that they are saving £18 billion for the sake of an extra three and half minutes, which can then be spent on integrating with and improving the rest of the local public transport network.
Will that win critics over? Jake Berry, the chair of the Northern Research Group of Tory MPs, warned Johnson yesterday that he had committed to a fully new line between Manchester and Leeds. His colleague Philip Davies said “anything less” than a wholly new line would be a “massive disappointment.” The FT’s Jim Pickard has their quotes. A rail source argues to the Times‘ Ben Clatworthy that the real problem is capacity rather than speed: “The government keeps banging on about journey times and speed but this is simply not the answer. When you cancel new lines in favour of upgrades, you don’t increase the capacity.”
2 losers: Playbook’s first reading is that the government’s critics will focus on Leeds and Bradford. A government source said Leeds was the only place that would get significantly slower journey times to London compared with the full-fat HS2 proposal. Playbook is told the Leeds to London trip will now be 30 minutes slower than it would have been under the old plan, though 20 minutes faster than now. The Times quotes a source saying Leeds has been “betrayed.”
What they’re getting instead: In order to soften the blow, ministers say they will focus on improving local transport links for Leeds and Bradford. Leeds will get a new mass transit system and faster trains to York and Newcastle, as well as NPR to Manchester. In an op-ed for the Yorkshire Post today, Johnson commits to a “new study” on how to eventually get high speed rail all the way up the eastern leg to Leeds — though expect local leaders to pour scorn on that peace offering. Bradford will have an upgraded electrified line to Leeds that will take that journey time down to 12 minutes.
Why did they change their minds? Money is obviously a major factor and there have been briefings flying around all week that Chancellor Rishi Sunak wanted to reduce costs. The Northern Powerhouse Partnership calculates that the overall saving from downgrading the pledges on HS2 and NPR is £14 billion — £10 billion on HS2 and £4 billion on NPR — ITV’s Anushka Asthana and the Times report. A rail source complains to the paper: “There’s all this backlash, all these false promises and all the government is saving is £4 billion [on NPR]. It’s laughable.”
The argument you’ll hear today: Ministers will make the case that changing the plan on NPR and the HS2 eastern leg will allow people across the North to see benefits this decade, with faster journey times coming 10 years sooner than before (although the full benefits will still take two decades). On the eastern leg, ministers will argue that improving local links will “do much more to change people’s lives” than cutting half an hour off the journey to London. Expect them to say that improvements to local services will mean moving from the current antiquated system of diesel railbus trains in Yorkshire with no ticket offices at stations that have not much more than a bus shelter, to electrified trains on a light rail system with contactless payments integrated with local buses and trams.
A Whitehall insider said: “It’s a £100 billion program, the biggest government rail investment in British history — your head starts spinning slightly when you hear that described as ‘derisory.'”
Fascinating spot … from Opinium’s Chris Curtis, who reckons the canceled section of the HS2 eastern leg would have run through a load of red wall seats held by Tory MPs, without benefitting them directly. The original plan would have seen new track through Rother Valley, Ashfield, Bolsover, North East Derbyshire, and Penistone and Stocksbridge, all 2019 Tory gains, without serving any of those areas. The Yorkshire Post’s Caitlin Doherty also noticed this a couple of days ago and tweeted: “A proportion of Red Wall voters will be pretty chuffed to hear about the Eastern Leg of HS2 not going ahead.”
The backlash: The Federation of Small Businesses’ Mike Cherry says in the FT this morning that it remains to be seen whether the new improvements to local services make up for the change to the high speed plans: “Confirmation that a significant section of HS2 is not going ahead will come as a big disappointment to small firms right across the country which were banking on its delivery. Targeted, local investment is a great thing — the detail unveiled tomorrow will reveal whether we have enough here to make up for the HS2 shortfall. There will be those who worry that the levelling-up agenda is already going off track.”
Labour’s shadow transport secretary is already on the attack … Jim McMahon blasts: “The Integrated Rail Plan must deliver in full what has been promised. For too long communities across the North have been left with substandard infrastructure, whilst facing record fare increases … It’s laughable and insulting to expect people to be satisfied with watered down schemes and crumbs from the table, after putting their faith in a prime minister who has gone back on his word at the first opportunity.”
