Rail nationalisation: ideas, suggestions, predictions etc

[Dr Hoo]

And you've just illustrated why the Governments concept of "unsustainable", which seems to have been plucked out of its a**e, is meaningless.

Although not explicitly using the term "unsustainable", in essence for Network Rail there is such a concept. Under Labour's Railways Act 2005 the Statement of Funds Available (SOFA) process was put in place. For each five-year Periodic Review the ORR is given a SOFA by the DfT covering the forthcoming five years (with a parallel process for Scotland). That is really a capped 'budget' for Network Rail to work within. Although early SOFAs allowed for enhancements they now only cover Operations, Maintenance and Renewal. Any investment in enhancements such as electrification may be announce and approved as a 'top up'. So one can infer that the SOFA is 'sustainable' (to the governments) over the period that it covers.

With operator support/'subsidy' the problem is that it has tended to fluctuate all over the place, at least since Covid and has become very unpredictable. In principle there is nothing to stop the DfT ('aided' by the Treasury) setting a quasi-SOFA for this expenditure too although I note that they haven't done this. Be careful what you wish for!

Obviously they would be some rough edges or bespoke arrangements for Scotland, Wales, Merseyrail and operations under TfL.

 

[yorksrob]

Although not explicitly using the term "unsustainable", in essence for Network Rail there is such a concept. Under Labour's Railways Act 2005 the Statement of Funds Available (SOFA) process was put in place. For each five-year Periodic Review the ORR is given a SOFA by the DfT covering the forthcoming five years (with a parallel process for Scotland). That is really a capped 'budget' for Network Rail to work within. Although early SOFAs allowed for enhancements they now only cover Operations, Maintenance and Renewal. Any investment in enhancements such as electrification may be announce and approved as a 'top up'. So one can infer that the SOFA is 'sustainable' (to the governments) over the period that it covers.

With operator support/'subsidy' the problem is that it has tended to fluctuate all over the place, at least since Covid and has become very unpredictable. In principle there is nothing to stop the DfT ('aided' by the Treasury) setting a quasi-SOFA for this expenditure too although I note that they haven't done this. Be careful what you wish for!

Obviously they would be some rough edges or bespoke arrangements for Scotland, Wales, Merseyrail and operations under TfL.

I don't wish for them to set up a quasi-SOFA for operational expenditure. I merely wish they would stop bandying around terms like "unsustainable" as though they bear no relation to the level of service required by the travelling public.

 

[Dr Hoo]

I don't wish for them to set up a quasi-SOFA for operational expenditure. I merely wish they would stop bandying around terms like "unsustainable" as though they bear no relation to the level of service required by the travelling public.

I’m not surprised by your response but an obvious part of setting up GBR will setting just such a budget for the whole English ‘main line’ passenger railway as I see it.

 

[yorksrob]

I’m not surprised by your response but an obvious part of setting up GBR will setting just such a budget for the whole English ‘main line’ passenger railway as I see it.

I'd hope they'll set key performance indicators for increasing passenger usage and passenger value for money (amongst others) as well in that case.

 

[Lurcheroo]

I have this suggestion and I’d love to suggest it to people who could actually work out if it’s viable or not.

I’m not sure how TFW will fit into GBR but let’s assume it’s all one big happy family that interlinks.

Using the new 805’s introduce an Aberystwyth - London service again.
Somewhere between 2 and 4 services a day each way.

Obviously route clearance to Aberystwyth would need to happen and then you would need to train Machynlleth train crews on the 805’s and then to Birmingham international again too.
You would then also have the old Avanti depots that used to work as far as Shrewsbury do that again.

These could be put on services between hours of the Pwllheli/Aber to Birmingham services and would almost certainly couple up with another 805, possibly at a wolves or Newstreet to go as a 10 car to London. And would split on the journeys to Aber.

On diesel these seem to have the same performance as the 197’s so no loss there. Then they can run on electric from Wolverhampton (or possibly just before).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I can't believe that is on anybody's list of how to solve the railway's problems.
It's one better than reopening Aber-Carmarthen, at least.
TfW has not yet implemented its plans for new 197s on the Cambrian.
805s are essentially for Euston-Chester/Holyhead/Wrexham services (and the intended Shrewsbury working has only recently been canned).
They will remain on the WCML even after HS2 opens (when most other WCML fast trains will divert from the traditional route).

Now if a bi/tri-mode programme emerges from the Northern procurement, I could see that being valuable right across the old Regional Railways empire, including TfW's routes.
But we're a long way from having such a programme - I'm not sure any of the manufacturers can meet the requirement off the shelf, and they won't be long-distance trains.
Maybe they could replace the Mk4s one day, when they and the 67s really do fall apart.
TfW also still has to get to grips with its cost base.
The WG bailed it out temporarily last year (by cutting other budgets like NHS and education), but there are bound to be TfW cuts of some sort in the pipeline.

 

[Lurcheroo]

I can't believe that is on anybody's list of how to solve the railway's problems.
It's one better than reopening Aber-Carmarthen, at least.
TfW has not yet implemented its plans for new 197s on the Cambrian.
805s are essentially for Euston-Chester/Holyhead/Wrexham services (and the intended Shrewsbury working has only recently been canned).
They will remain on the WCML even after HS2 opens (when most other WCML fast trains will divert from the traditional route).

Now if a bi/tri-mode programme emerges from the Northern procurement, I could see that being valuable right across the old Regional Railways empire, including TfW's routes.
But we're a long way from having such a programme - I'm not sure any of the manufacturers can meet the requirement off the shelf, and they won't be long-distance trains.
Maybe they could replace the Mk4s one day, when they and the 67s really do fall apart.
TfW also still has to get to grips with its cost base.
The WG bailed it out temporarily last year (by cutting other budgets like NHS and education), but there are bound to be TfW cuts of some sort in the pipeline.

It’s not on my list of how to solve the railways problems (that list is for a different thread) It is however on my list of how to provide an improved service and convince more people to see rail as a good option. And it’s quite a different proposal from reopening a previously closed rail line through rural wales.

As a Cambrian driver I’m very aware of the state of play with the 197’s on the Cambrian.
I’m also aware of what the 805’s are ‘meant’ for. There may not be enough 805’s and that would be a fair obstacle as ordering more would not be likely to make financial sense.

The Shrewsbury working was a bit of a waste of time as it got cancelled by Avanti so often it wasn’t seen to be reliable. It’s the same with TFW’s morning working to Barmouth, it was once a well patronised service that people relied upon. But with stock shortages it has become the first to get cancelled and so unreliable that you’re lucky to get 1 passenger on it.
So it’s being removed from December.
As part of the cost saving measures you have said are bound to be in the pipeline (which have already been announced, consulted upon and some changes made to).

Either way, you haven’t actually made any suggestions as why it wouldn’t work or why it wouldn’t make sense / be viable.

 

[The Planner]

It’s not on my list of how to solve the railways problems (that list is for a different thread) It is however on my list of how to provide an improved service and convince more people to see rail as a good option. And it’s quite a different proposal from reopening a previously closed rail line through rural wales.

As a Cambrian driver I’m very aware of the state of play with the 197’s on the Cambrian.
I’m also aware of what the 805’s are ‘meant’ for. There may not be enough 805’s and that would be a fair obstacle as ordering more would not be likely to make financial sense.

The Shrewsbury working was a bit of a waste of time as it got cancelled by Avanti so often it wasn’t seen to be reliable. It’s the same with TFW’s morning working to Barmouth, it was once a well patronised service that people relied upon. But with stock shortages it has become the first to get cancelled and so unreliable that you’re lucky to get 1 passenger on it.
So it’s being removed from December.
As part of the cost saving measures you have said are bound to be in the pipeline (which have already been announced, consulted upon and some changes made to).

Either way, you haven’t actually made any suggestions as why it wouldn’t work or why it wouldn’t make sense / be viable.

Like you have already noted about the Avanti train, if it was a Euston service, the first sniff of late running and its spinning at Wolves or Shrewsbury or the Cambrian goes down the pan as it has no resilience in it.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It’s not on my list of how to solve the railways problems (that list is for a different thread) It is however on my list of how to provide an improved service and convince more people to see rail as a good option. And it’s quite a different proposal from reopening a previously closed rail line through rural wales.

As a Cambrian driver I’m very aware of the state of play with the 197’s on the Cambrian.
I’m also aware of what the 805’s are ‘meant’ for. There may not be enough 805’s and that would be a fair obstacle as ordering more would not be likely to make financial sense.

The Shrewsbury working was a bit of a waste of time as it got cancelled by Avanti so often it wasn’t seen to be reliable. It’s the same with TFW’s morning working to Barmouth, it was once a well patronised service that people relied upon. But with stock shortages it has become the first to get cancelled and so unreliable that you’re lucky to get 1 passenger on it.
So it’s being removed from December.
As part of the cost saving measures you have said are bound to be in the pipeline (which have already been announced, consulted upon and some changes made to).

Either way, you haven’t actually made any suggestions as why it wouldn’t work or why it wouldn’t make sense / be viable.

How big is the potential market for Aberystwyth-London? Aberystwyth is a pretty small place so I can't imagine the market is that big. Are the platforms on the Cambrian even long enough for a 5-car 805? My immediate thought is, you'd be putting a train that's designed as a long-distance intercity train on a route that's more of a rural commuter/leisure route. If we ever find there are spare 805s that you could use to provide additional services to somewhere, then I'd expect that they'd be more useful running to places like Blackpool, Bolton, Lancaster, Wrexham or Shrewsbury.

For Aberystwyth, wouldn't it be more useful to work towards a reliable hourly Aberystwyth-Birmingham service? Birmingham already has a frequent service to London. Also, once HS2 is up and running, any Aberystwyth-London passengers might prefer to swap to HS2 at Birmingham anyway.

 

[Lurcheroo]

Like you have already noted about the Avanti train, if it was a Euston service, the first sniff of late running and its spinning at Wolves or Shrewsbury or the Cambrian goes down the pan as it has no resilience in it.

Unfortunately it is true. I’m not sure if the 197’d will give it a bit more resilience by reducing time between passing points but it will only be a little if they do.

How big is the potential market for Aberystwyth-London? Aberystwyth is a pretty small place so I can't imagine the market is that big. Are the platforms on the Cambrian even long enough for a 5-car 805? My immediate thought is, you'd be putting a train that's designed as a long-distance intercity train on a route that's more of a rural commuter/leisure route. If we ever find there are spare 805s that you could use to provide additional services to somewhere, then I'd expect that they'd be more useful running to places like Blackpool, Bolton, Lancaster, Wrexham or Shrewsbury.

For Aberystwyth, wouldn't it be more useful to work towards a reliable hourly Aberystwyth-Birmingham service? Birmingham already has a frequent service to London. Also, once HS2 is up and running, any Aberystwyth-London passengers might prefer to swap to HS2 at Birmingham anyway.

I’m not sure ‘how big’ exactly it is compared to other places, there is definitely a decent number of people doing it from my experience as a guard (but numbers may tell a different story).
There’s a few where they won’t fit, but they have SDO so wouldn’t be an issue.

In reality, we would be doing well if we can ever get a year round hourly service just to and from Shrewsbury, as TFW have now said that the hourly service will be summer only with only a 16:30 from Shrewsbury being added all year round.