Virgin / Stagecoach win East Coast

[thenorthern]

London to Glasgow Pacers.

I heard someone worry that the Pendos would be replaced by HSTs displaced from First Great Western despite the fact that there are no spare HSTs at the moment.

 

[pemma]

Yes it very common for Virgin to hold a small stake in a company with the company using the Virgin name. Even if they pulled out, they could have the name licensed to them like all the Virgin Radio's currently operating around the world.

Virgin Radio is a good example. There's many different radio stations with the same name but they all have individual websites.

 

[cjmillsnun]

The Cheltenhams, Bristols etc could be classed as stoppers with the Cardiffs, Swanseas and South West services being made pick up only to ease overcrowding on these services.

At Milton Keynes the extra capacity that Virgin could provide would go a long way to ease the load off LM but Virgin choose to ignore LMs problems to suit their PR machine, I mean we cant have the great MKC unwashed infecting Virgins superior passengers can we!
Can you come up with a legitimate reason for Virgin not to pick up during the morning peak at MKC, they pick up Euston bound later on in the day when its not really needed?
Oh and an ORCATs raid is not a legitimate reason!

To be fair IC used to do this, both at MK and Watford Junction.

 

[route:oxford]

Perhaps Virgin and a partner should run the E-W link?

For the purposes of through-ticketing of advance purchases it would be rather handy.

 

[JaJaWa]

First saw this on a tweet from a journo at The Scotsman.

https://twitter.com/AlastairDalton/status/537998246808150017

JaJaWa - this image seems to be sitting on the Wikipedia page for Virgin Trains East Coast - it seems you put it there. Is this your image, and if so is it official?

Yes image is via The Scotsman, is apparently official.

 

[CockneySparrow]

Virgin Radio is a good example. There's many different radio stations with the same name but they all have individual websites.

Then when you look at them in detail you find that they are a clone of the rest with a couple of words changed such as a town or city which happens to make them look local, this of course keeps OFCOM happy lol

The people of Cambridge are unhappy with train fare rises

The people of Derby are unhappy with train fare rises

The people of Bristol are unhappy with train fare rises

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Yes image is via The Scotsman, is apparently official.

I somehow doubt that anything "official" will appear before the ICEC contract is signed after the 10-day standstill period.
Until then everything is under DfT control as per the agreements the bidders have signed.
Maybe it leaked from the bid documents, or is just a jape.

 

[Tetchytyke]

So, in short, you'd complain either way?

IF they had only promised to pay a tiny premium to the Government, would you be saying "this is great news, they'll not need to increase any fares"? Course not - you'd be pointing out that the taxpayer had a better deal under DOR. Can't win, can they?

Privatisation is about privatising profit and nationalising risk, as the other Stagecoach cap-and-collar franchises have been proving for a very long time.

If the private operator pays less premiums to the Government, or puts up fares to pay for these increased premiums, then it proves that privatisation is bad for railway passengers.

If fares and services remain the same and premiums go up, then I'll be quite happy to listen to the argument about "private sector efficiency".

I don't think Stagecoach can fund these increased premiums without ramping up fares. If I'm right then I take that to mean that privatisation is only good for Brian Souter. We'll see, won't we.

 

[Stats]

I somehow doubt that anything "official" will appear before the ICEC contract is signed after the 10-day standstill period.
Until then everything is under DfT control as per the agreements the bidders have signed.
Maybe it leaked from the bid documents, or is just a jape.

The image is on Stagecoach's presentation to investors.
http://stagecoach.com/~/media/Files.../publication-financial-reports/2014-11-27.pdf

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The image is on Stagecoach's presentation to investors.
http://stagecoach.com/~/media/Files.../publication-financial-reports/2014-11-27.pdf

That's pretty official.
Some interesting background in the slides, too. Virgin is at "arms length".
I wonder who will be MD? Where did Tony Collins go?

 

[WatcherZero]

Stagecoach said several months ago that the Virgin West coast management was predominantly Virgin based but the East Coast franchise would predominantly be Stagecoach management based. Think I even heard Virgin say once that Stagecoach had absolutely no input on the running of West Coast.

Yep reading that document Virgin will be paid for providing 'brand consultants' and receive 10% of profits but wont be involved in managing the franchise. £2.3bn discounted rate is described as 'core franchise' payments with 2% revenue 'Deadband' outside which Dft takes majority of risk or majority of profits. Stagecoach rather than Dft is wholly responsible for other revenue risk (e.g. retail, fees for other services)

 

[route:oxford]

I don't think Stagecoach can fund these increased premiums without ramping up fares. If I'm right then I take that to mean that privatisation is only good for Brian Souter. We'll see, won't we.

Well, there is the matter of potential stock utilisation to undertake an ORCATS raid.

It's already looking like a path for one of the most lucrative morning services for Scotrail in the Central Belt will be switched to East Coast in early course.

If the 13:00 service from London can, with suitable stock, be extended North of Edinburgh to form the 17:26 service to Dunblane - that's income from another busy service.

At least it will release a couple of 170s to form the "Harry Potter" service to Fife.

I do really like the thought of boarding a Dunblane service at Kings Cross.

 

[Class 170101]

Well, there is the matter of potential stock utilisation to undertake an ORCATS raid.

It's already looking like a path for one of the most lucrative morning services for Scotrail in the Central Belt will be switched to East Coast in early course.

If the 13:00 service from London can, with suitable stock, be extended North of Edinburgh to form the 17:26 service to Dunblane - that's income from another busy service.

How can that be acceptable? The 17:26 is a Scotrail service managed by Transport Scotland the Scotrail franchise being a devolved matter. If service is lucrative how can TS afford to lose the money it generates? (or lowwer the subsidy requirement if you prefer). One operator cannot just steal the path of another.

At least it will release a couple of 170s to form the "Harry Potter" service to Fife.

You will have to elaborate on your Harry Potter comment.

 

[Suraggu]

As I previously stated the Virgin 10% is basically for the branding. Souter states months ago in an interview that Virgin would be the brand/face of the franchise and Stagecoach would run everything to do with the franchise.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How can that be acceptable? The 17:26 is a Scotrail service managed by Transport Scotland the Scotrail franchise being a devolved matter. If service is lucrative how can TS afford to lose the money it generates? (or lowwer the subsidy requirement if you prefer). One operator cannot just steal the path of another.

No, but it could make a commercial offer to the other. For instance the train could be operated by East Coast on behalf of First ScotRail north of Edinburgh.

Neil

 

[Chrism20]

Well, there is the matter of potential stock utilisation to undertake an ORCATS raid.

It's already looking like a path for one of the most lucrative morning services for Scotrail in the Central Belt will be switched to East Coast in early course.

If the 13:00 service from London can, with suitable stock, be extended North of Edinburgh to form the 17:26 service to Dunblane - that's income from another busy service.

At least it will release a couple of 170s to form the "Harry Potter" service to Fife.

I do really like the thought of boarding a Dunblane service at Kings Cross.

Surely the arrival into Stirling is going to be later than 6:30pm for the second service. That is only about an hour later than the Chieftan and given the need to utilise the rolling stock will they really want an HST finished by 7pm?

Isn't the 1700 of the cross an HST at the moment? That would give and arrival time of around 2230 into Stirling. The 0730 from Edinburgh in the mornings is also and HST starting that from Stirling at around 0615 and would give an arrival time into London before noon.

I guess we will have to wait and see for timings but given that the full recast isn't going to be until after that the Stirling service is launched it's going to have to be tagged onto a current HST serving Edinburgh unless of course they swap a set but that could cause an issue on another run after that. I think the next HST after the 0730 from Edinburgh is the 1030 which is ex Aberdeen

 

[Suraggu]

Surely the arrival into Stirling is going to be later than 6:30pm for the second service. That is only about an hour later than the Chieftan and given the need to utilise the rolling stock will they really want an HST finished by 7pm?

Isn't the 1700 of the cross an HST at the moment? That would give and arrival time of around 2230 into Stirling. The 0730 from Edinburgh in the mornings is also and HST starting that from Stirling at around 0615 and would give an arrival time into London before noon.

I guess we will have to wait and see for timings but given that the full recast isn't going to be until after that the Stirling service is launched it's going to have to be tagged onto a current HST serving Edinburgh unless of course they swap a set but that could cause an issue on another run after that. I think the next HST after the 0730 from Edinburgh is the 1030 which is ex Aberdeen

From Dec the 0625 NCL -EDB and return working to London become a HST, but that don't help the Stirling service.
Also from Dec their will be 3 HST departures off Craigentinny to form services to London.

 

[Chrism20]

From Dec the 0625 NCL -EDB and return working to London become a HST, but that don't help the Stirling service.
Also from Dec their will be 3 HST departures off Craigentinny to form services to London.

The other being the 0830 so it could be 0710-ish from Stirling assuming there is a path for it. There might be at Stirling but can Haymarket cope with an HST sitting on the platform at 0810 in the morning?

Also will it overnight in Stirling or will they run it ECS from Edinburgh? If they do it needs to get out of Edinburgh first thing in the morning to get to Stirling as well.

 

[Old Yard Dog]

I tend to take National Express coaches , and would prefer the train but the coach prices are extremely competitive, but anyway the other franchises are going to come up for renewal in the next few years, the West Coast franchise being somewhat irrelevent to East Coast England destinations anyway, and where I live I can opt for GC instead, assuming GC can survive this new competition.

I was recently dumped off a Birmingham - Birkenhead NE coach as Stafford railway station as the driver had run out of hours due to traffic jams on the M6. We had to make our own way home by train.

It isn't often you get a "bus replacement train"!

 

[WatcherZero]

Unusual but has been done, Workington North in 2009/10.

 

[pemma]

Then when you look at them in detail you find that they are a clone of the rest with a couple of words changed such as a town or city which happens to make them look local, this of course keeps OFCOM happy lol

The people of Cambridge are unhappy with train fare rises

The people of Derby are unhappy with train fare rises

The people of Bristol are unhappy with train fare rises

Did you quote the right post?

Virgin Radio not longer exists in Britain, since it became Absolute Radio. Virgin Radio still exists in countries such as Canada and Dubai but the radio stations aren't connected in any way other than sharing a name which is licensed from Virgin Group.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

DfT has signed the contract with Inter City Railways. First and Keolis seem to have gone quietly.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-east-coast-mainline-franchise-confirmed

There's nothing new in the announcement, but we would expect more news of the operation to be made public now.

The company will now begin talks with Network Rail and the Office of Rail Regulation to agree its plans to run new direct services from London to Sunderland, Middlesbrough and Huddersfield.
It will also seek approval to run more trains to Edinburgh, Leeds, Lincoln, Shipley, Stirling, Harrogate and Bradford.

 

[Iskra]

Does anyone else think a clever move by Virgin Stage Coach would be to start the franchise with the 91's/HST's painted in the old Virgin West Coast/Cross Country livery and then only bring in the new Pendolino/Voyager livery on the IEP's. That way it highlights that they've replaced ageing (although perfectly good) stock with brand new shiny trains again. Joe public will then think Virgin are great at taking rubbish lines with old trains and getting brand new shiny trains to replace them and improve the service, despite the fact that any franchisee would have done that anyway. Whether they do or don't, Virgin are going to end up with all the plaudits for modernising the ECML franchise, just like the WCML in Joe Publics' eyes, so they're onto a winner here.

 

[Chrism20]

Does anyone else think a clever move by Virgin Stage Coach would be to start the franchise with the 91's/HST's painted in the old Virgin West Coast/Cross Country livery and then only bring in the new Pendolino/Voyager livery on the IEP's. That way it highlights that they've replaced ageing (although perfectly good) stock with brand new shiny trains again. Joe public will then think Virgin are great at taking rubbish lines with old trains and getting brand new shiny trains to replace them and improve the service, despite the fact that any franchisee would have done that anyway. Whether they do or don't, Virgin are going to end up with all the plaudits for modernising the ECML franchise, just like the WCML in Joe Publics' eyes, so they're onto a winner here.

I think that will be what they do (one logo before and one after) although I don't think they will use the old WC design tbh.

They say the existing stock will get an internal overhaul so I'm guessing they will do that at the same time.

I doubt they will leave it as it is and simply slap Virgin decals on it. That just so not Virgin lol

 

[dgl]

I wonder if they could use SWT's new paint shop to repaint them if they are going to. Surely that would be a cheaper option than using an external contractor

 

[WatcherZero]

DfT has signed the contract with Inter City Railways. First and Keolis seem to have gone quietly.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-east-coast-mainline-franchise-confirmed

There's nothing new in the announcement, but we would expect more news of the operation to be made public now.

Been some more on the competition today. Virgin/Stagecoach won with a £3.3bn premium, the next highest bid was a premium of £2.4bn. Stagecoach bid was £900m more and relies on increasing capacity by 50% and doubling annual revenue from £700m to £1.4bn through heavy initial investment and accepting a lower profit in the early years in return for a larger annual profit at the tail end of the franchise to give an industry average return over the length of the contract, annual operating profit is expected to be around £20m initially and rise to around £100m in the final years.

 

[Chrism20]

Please forgive me for being a bit dumb but what is open plan ticketing?

 

[6Z09]

Is there any mention of Kings X to Glasgow trains, East Coast currently only appear to have one direct in each direction daily, down from one every couple of hours in GNER days.

 

[Geezertronic]

That just so not Virgin lol

Virgin Trains East Coast will be only Virgin branding, not Virgin run since Stagecoach are the 90% stakeholder. Virgin won't probably allow the brand to be affected but it's very much like Virgin Media which is also branding only

 

[Chrism20]

Is there any mention of Kings X to Glasgow trains, East Coast currently only appear to have one direct in each direction daily, down from one every couple of hours in GNER days.

Glasgow has never been mentioned at all.

The through trains were curtailed at Edinburgh in order to intensify the frequencies further south where they are needed. Most of the time they were empty or near to empty. Since the WCML upgrade its quicker to go west rather than east. I remember reading somewhere that research that had been done showed that most people were going to Newcastle, York and Leeds which are all covered by XC anyway rather than going all the way to the cross.

Tbh it wouldn't surprise me if it was pulled leaving XC to that one although I'm guessing that there may be something in the contract that a service had to be kept hence the one daily outing. If they did pull it would more than likely become the new ex Stirling service (on an HST of course)