Alloa is an interesting one. The modelling predicted a certain level of demand for travel to Glasgow and Edinburgh which I believe was not far off reality (though still a little underestimated).
I believe however that most of the discrepancy was in Alloa - Stirling demand which modelling predicted would mostly stay on buses but a combination of competitive pricing and worsening road congestion has helped rail to gain a much bigger share of this than expected by the modelling.
The equivalent in the Borders will be if we start seeing demand for Gorebridge - Eskbank demand for shopping, College etc on top of the Edinburgh commuting demand.
I suspect that hyper local traffic will be trickier for rail to gain here as Lothian Buses is both more frequent and more competitively priced than other bus companies.
I expect there may well still be some Borders - Midlothian demand that may well not have been captured by the modelling.
I know little about feasibility studies admittedly but how can they possibly estimate the traffic levels for people travelling from other areas to the reopened line/station ?
I have an old 1970's booklet by the Railway Invigoration Society where they said that it was commonly thought that when railways were closed in the 60s that people who formerly used connecting services from a main line station would simply use the "replacement bus service" to reach their destination. However they said it had been found that in most cases people either a) Drove all the way or b) got a bus all the way or c) Did not travel there. In other words the destination, once it disappeared from the railway map, was perceived as no longer being reachable by public transport.
If you think of a trip from London to Sunderland until 1964 it was simply a matter of main line train to Durham then into a DMU to Sunderland. After 1964 that would involve alighting at Durham then a long walk down the very steep hill to the bus station for a slow bus ride to Sunderland, so effectively it was a non starter.
Now several new destinations have been added to the rail map and I doubt the ability of feasibility studies to take account of this. For anyone about 55 years old living alongside the Waverley Line they can have no experience of having a local station in the area so again I doubt you can predict what they will do.
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