Leaving aside
Altnabreacs golden rule of a successful rail reopening©:
I can't imagine how they could include Langholm as part of the route (other than a Park and Ride somewhere) without running up ridiculous costs, which makes me just a wee bit suspicious that Langholm may have been included just to make sure that the BCR is positively homopathic so that extension to Carlisle can be seen off for good.
I do hope not.
Well yes, I know nothing south of Hawick will pass the Golden Rule
I don't think at this stage that anything will be excluded to damage any BCRs. The study will want to look at as many options as possible.
The way an initial STAG appraisal works is to assess the travel needs and then look at a very wide variety of options that might meet those needs.
But it's a long, long way from Hawick to Carlisle, and it would be of no negative impact on the line's capacity to provide a stop somewhere between the two. If so, then where else other than Langholm?
A station at Langholm is not likely to be any less used than some of the others on the Borders Railway, or Lockerbie (which is in a similar position but competing with many other demands on capacity on the WCML).
So broadly what the STAG appraisal will be looking at will be whether the extra business from serving Langholm (population 2,500) rather than Newcastleton (Population 800) will offset any extra costs of a new alignment.
Let's assume that extending just to Hawick is examined independently and given it's own BCR.
There will then need to be a justification for a railway between the Borders and Carlisle. This can only ever be to help speed up journeys from the Borders to England. There isn't much commuting demand to Carlisle and the intermediate population is very small.
So then we have the choice of:
Reopening 40 miles or so of disused alignment from Hawick to Mossband with stations at Newcastleton, Canonbie (for Langholm) and Longtown.
Population served - 4,500 plus 3,000 at Langholm by Park & Ride.
Cost - £400m or so at £10m per mile.
Wider benefits - Faster journeys from central borders to England.
New alignment via Langholm with 20 miles or so of new alignment and 20 miles disused alignment with stations at Langholm and Longtown.
Population served - 6,000.
Cost - £500m or so at £10m per mile for disused alignment and £15m per mile for new alignment.
Wider benefits - Faster journeys from central borders to England.
Now both of these are going to struggle to get a BCR better than 0.20.
But if we really do think that we need new services that speed the journey from the Borders to England then what about this option:
Reopen 40 miles of disused alignment from Galashiels - Symington with stations at Innerleithen, Peebles, Broughton, Biggar,
Population served 15,000
Cost - £400m or so at £10m per mile.
Wider benefits - Faster journeys from central borders to England.
Faster journeys from central borders to Glasgow.
Service from Peebles, Biggar to Edinburgh via WCML
I still don't think it will get anywhere near a positive BCR but I bet it would be a better BCR than reopening south of Hawick.