Wales & Borders Franchise

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Commons Welsh Affairs Committee is now discussing the Wales & Borders franchise.
The witness is Prof Stuart Cole, transport advisor to the Welsh Government.
Live on Parliament TV.
http://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/5887765b-8b2d-431f-a171-5b69a3cc22d6
....
Fallout:
Class 230s on the Central Wales Line?
Need new/refurbished stock quickly to avoid 2020 deadline.

Stuart Cole is quite a character, with a lot of detailed rail knowledge (unlike the committee asking the questions).
He isn't the Welsh Government, but what he said painted a glum picture about W&B franchise planning.
The DfT and WG haven't done a deal yet on the 2018 franchise or on funding for rail in Wales.
The franchise map is likely to stay the same, because lopping English bits off makes no operating or financial sense.
The position on Cardiff-Swansea and Valleys electrification is not settled, because the costs are based on a "desk analysis".
He said Valleys might cost £700m rather than the £350m they agreed with DfT, when they agreed the £125m DfT contribution.
They want new DMUs, probably tacked on to the Northern order (ie CAF, but he only mentioned Bombardier, Siemens and Hitachi as options).
He wants a Bristol-Swansea EMU service.
He wants a constant 100mph on the North Wales main line.
But time and again he said the DfT was in charge of investment, but Welsh needs were not high on their list of priorities.

 

[plcd1]

Mr Cole was one of my tutors on my Business Studies (with Transport) degree course. He always liked the sound of his own voice.

I'm not sure he's possessed of any great intellectual brilliance but he has carved out a successful career in saying a lot of obvious but clever sounding things about transport.

Colour me not surprised that no one knows what to do with public transport in Wales. Strikes me as a place with ambitions far beyond its ability to pay for them while not being able or willing to do boring, "balls aching" work to deliver cheaper, faster short term improvements while laying the ground work for more substantive capital investment schemes. It's a shame because there should be a really good market for decent bus and rail travel.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Mr Cole was one of my tutors on my Business Studies (with Transport) degree course. He always liked the sound of his own voice.
I'm not sure he's possessed of any great intellectual brilliance but he has carved out a successful career in saying a lot of obvious but clever sounding things about transport.
Colour me not surprised that no one knows what to do with public transport in Wales. Strikes me as a place with ambitions far beyond its ability to pay for them while not being able or willing to do boring, "balls aching" work to deliver cheaper, faster short term improvements while laying the ground work for more substantive capital investment schemes. It's a shame because there should be a really good market for decent bus and rail travel.

I had been hoping that, behind the scenes, the WG and DfT were hammering out a Wales & Borders deal along the lines of the Northern franchise (ie new trains to eliminate Pacers, higher frequencies and a quality uplift with some new semi-fast services and a start on electrification).
But Stuart seemed to be painting a picture of impotence at WG and indifference at DfT.
Nobody has a clue what the WG contract which has been advertised to run the franchise and deliver the South Wales Metro actually means in practice.
The DfT still hasn't got the W&B franchise renewal in its sights, and keeps passing on major decisions on its structure (and that of its neighbours).

I had him down as a South Wales specialist, but he did say he had worked for Cheshire CC on transport policy and knew the issues with North Wales and cross-border services.
He didn't make any reference to the mini-HST option for long-distance services, similar to Scotrail's plans, which I thought was his last bright idea.

 

[northwichcat]

I had been hoping that, behind the scenes, the WG and DfT were hammering out a Wales & Borders deal along the lines of the Northern franchise (ie new trains to eliminate Pacers, higher frequencies and a quality uplift with some new semi-fast services and a start on electrification).

Don't forget the Northern ITT effectively said take on any 15x or 17x you can get your hands on to allow Pacer replacement/extra capacity. However, as you'll have 102 Pacers to replace the released DMUs from other TOCs won't go far enough so we reckon you'll need at least 120 new carriages as well.

but he did say he had worked for Cheshire CC on transport policy

Apparently he was Economic Advisor for Cheshire CC in the 1970s: http://news.glam.ac.uk/news/en/2012/jun/16/glamorgan-professor-receives-cbe-queens-birthday-h/ That would have meant he was in that role around the time the government introduced Greater Manchester and Merseyside.

 

[6Gman]

I had him down as a South Wales specialist, but he did say he had worked for Cheshire CC on transport policy and knew the issues with North Wales and cross-border services.

Given Cheshire's sparkling record on rail progress (whatever did happen to "8 hours from Crewe to Paris by sleeper"?) that scarcely seems a recommendation!

 

[PHILIPE]

Mr Cole was one of my tutors on my Business Studies (with Transport) degree course. He always liked the sound of his own voice.

I'm not sure he's possessed of any great intellectual brilliance but he has carved out a successful career in saying a lot of obvious but clever sounding things about transport.

Colour me not surprised that no one knows what to do with public transport in Wales. Strikes me as a place with ambitions far beyond its ability to pay for them while not being able or willing to do boring, "balls aching" work to deliver cheaper, faster short term improvements while laying the ground work for more substantive capital investment schemes. It's a shame because there should be a really good market for decent bus and rail travel.

His "squeaky" voice
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I had been hoping that, behind the scenes, the WG and DfT were hammering out a Wales & Borders deal along the lines of the Northern franchise (ie new trains to eliminate Pacers, higher frequencies and a quality uplift with some new semi-fast services and a start on electrification).
But Stuart seemed to be painting a picture of impotence at WG and indifference at DfT.
Nobody has a clue what the WG contract which has been advertised to run the franchise and deliver the South Wales Metro actually means in practice.
The DfT still hasn't got the W&B franchise renewal in its sights, and keeps passing on major decisions on its structure (and that of its neighbours).

I had him down as a South Wales specialist, but he did say he had worked for Cheshire CC on transport policy and knew the issues with North Wales and cross-border services.
He didn't make any reference to the mini-HST option for long-distance services, similar to Scotrail's plans, which I thought was his last bright idea.

Full responsibility passes from DFT to Welsh Government in 2017, so whose bothered ? Agree indifference at DFT and Welsh Government clueless and without expertise. They'll probly use expensive consultants just as clueless themselves. The process for the drawing up of the franchise should have started by now and the ITTs going out soon. 2018 will soon be with us at the speed that any project on the railway will be struggling against the deadline especially with the time taken to do anything in the industry now.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Full responsibility passes from DFT to Welsh Government in 2017, so whose bothered ? Agree indifference at DFT and Welsh Government clueless and without expertise. They'll probly use expensive consultants just as clueless themselves. The process for the drawing up of the franchise should have started by now and the ITTs going out soon. 2018 will soon be with us at the speed that any project on the railway will be struggling against the deadline especially with the time taken to do anything in the industry now.

It will only pass from DfT to WG with a major deal including appropriate powers (including over infrastructure) and primary legislation, which has not yet been tabled.
Expertise is, as you say, short in Wales but I think the WG is seeking that from the private sector in the contract it is trying to let.
For Rail North, the DfT transferred some of its Leeds-based staff to kick things off.
I don't know if there are any DfT staff in Cardiff who could transfer (plenty in Swansea - the DVLA ).

What baffled me about the Welsh Select Committee meeting was that Stuart Cole was the only witness called to discuss the rail franchise - nobody from DfT, NR or WG.
He may be an advisor to WG but he plainly doesn't speak for them.

 

[WatcherZero]

I watched it, Stuart Cole was an informed witness but (even after admitting his bias as chairman of user committee of lines involved) was wildly optimistic on the case for further investment. He claimed there was a massive business case for electrification of the North Wales line when I thought the studies had shown it actually had a very poor economic case and was only useful in that it released stock. Also pushing for even more services on the Heart of Wales line when I thought the current Assembly funded service was considered a massive bonndoggle that was a glorified taxi service for the assembly members to their constituencies and wasted a huge amount of money on a low patronage service.

 

[krus_aragon]

Also pushing for even more services on the Heart of Wales line when I thought the current Assembly funded service was considered a massive bonndoggle that was a glorified taxi service for the assembly members to their constituencies and wasted a huge amount of money on a low patronage service.

That's news to me. Are you sure you aren't confusing the lightly used Heart of Wales line (Llanelli-Shrewsbury) with the WG-funded North-South Express, which runs via the Marches? That's been described ad an AM taxi service in the past.

 

[gareth950]

The MPs on the committee were completely clueless and clearly weren't getting the point from Cole that the crisis in Wales is happening NOW - they kept asking questions about how can improvements be made and dealt with in the next franchise and from 2018. The idea of extending the current franchise for ATW was even brought up, but Cole rightly pointed out that what incentive would ATW have to improve services if that happened as ATW wouldn't be guaranteed the new franchise.

On the valley lines, even though it's the busiest commuter network in Wales, and simply cannot cope at peak times, I was hoping that talks were going on behind the scenes between WG and DFT about the Metro or whatever system is chosen, but his evidence that there's incompetence at WG and indifference at DFT is very worrying.
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What baffled me about the Welsh Select Committee meeting was that Stuart Cole was the only witness called to discuss the rail franchise - nobody from DfT, NR or WG.
He may be an advisor to WG but he plainly doesn't speak for them.

I agree, if the magnitude of the situation in Wales was being taken seriously by the UK government then representatives would have been called from the WG, DFT, Network Rail, ATW, Angel Trains, Porterbrook and independent experts like Cole himself. I doubt they could have accommodated evidence from all those organisations in one session and several sessions would have been needed.
The magnitude of the situation clearly hasn't been grasped.

 

[northwichcat]

representatives would have been called from the WG, DFT, Network Rail, ATW, Angel Trains, Porterbrook and independent experts like Cole himself.

Porterbrook have unveiled their ePacer - it's up to politicians and TOCs to decide whether or not they want up to 46 x ePacers - the rest don't have to be fitted with toilets which could reduce the cost of conversion.

The big question mark is over the long term future of 153s. So far no TOC has confirmed they'll use 153s post-December 2019.

 

[Envoy]

The Wales & Borders railways are certainly in crises NOW.

I have just seen a Fishguard to Manchester train packed out at Abergavenny. What is even more disturbing is that for this long distance service, ATW had to resort to using a 2 coach Class 150 Sprinter - a train designed for short distance services.

 

[gareth950]

The Wales & Borders railways are certainly in crises NOW.

I have just seen a Fishguard to Manchester train packed out at Abergavenny. What is even more disturbing is that for this long distance service, ATW had to resort to using a 2 coach Class 150 Sprinter - a train designed for short distance services.

But the MPs in Westminster have their heads buried in the sand, quite literally. If you watch the recording of the committee, the chair (a well known Brexiter in Wales to give you an idea of where he is on the political spectrum) opened proceedings by saying "the subsidy to ATW is 13p (or 30p?) per km, therefore why don't we just reduce the rail network in Wales and build more roads?" Stuart Cole then politely pointed out that to cope with the demand of commuters into Cardiff solely by road, the Tory constituency of Cardiff North would have to be almost entirely tarmaced over to build enough road capacity to cope with demand.

The startled chair then changed his tone. You despair with the people making decisions in government, they are so far removed from the reality what is happening in real life it's shocking.

 

[thenorthern]

I personally don't think the Wales and Borders franchise should be devolved to the Welsh Assembly as unlike the ScotRail Franchise which has one cross border service with a single station (Carlisle) as well as the joint ScotRail and Northern service to to Newcastle the Wales and Borders service has a large number of services that run quite far into England or run just in England.

I don't think the Welsh Assembly would pay as much attention to the services that run mostly or only in England leaving passenger at stations such as Whitchurch, Chester, Hereford and many other stations with not as good services.

 

[gareth950]

I personally don't think the Wales and Borders franchise should be devolved to the Welsh Assembly as unlike the ScotRail Franchise which has one cross border service with a single station (Carlisle) as well as the joint ScotRail and Northern service to to Newcastle the Wales and Borders service has a large number of services that run quite far into England or run just in England.

I don't think the Welsh Assembly would pay as much attention to the services that run mostly or only in England leaving passenger at stations such as Whitchurch, Chester, Hereford and many other stations with not as good services.

Why not though? It's in the Welsh Govt's interest to make sure that routes and services that run along the Borders are of a good enough standard as these are the routes that bring in the profit for the franchise!

The inverse argument can also be made, and indeed it was made by Stuart Cole to the committee, that the DFT in Westminster don't care about rail services in Wales, so surely the WG should take control to make sure that the people in Wales get the high standard of rail services that they deserve and not the dire and laughable services that we have at the moment.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I personally don't think the Wales and Borders franchise should be devolved to the Welsh Assembly as unlike the ScotRail Franchise which has one cross border service with a single station (Carlisle) as well as the joint ScotRail and Northern service to to Newcastle the Wales and Borders service has a large number of services that run quite far into England or run just in England.

I don't think the Welsh Assembly would pay as much attention to the services that run mostly or only in England leaving passenger at stations such as Whitchurch, Chester, Hereford and many other stations with not as good services.

Why not though? It's in the Welsh Govt's interest to make sure that routes and services that run along the Borders are of a good enough standard as these are the routes that bring in the profit for the franchise!

I think that any services that run wholly in England such as the Shrewsbury-Crewe stopper and the Crewe Chester shuttle should be transferred to the West Midlands and Northern franchises respectively, but cross border services should remain with the current franchise.

 

[Llanigraham]

I don't think the Welsh Assembly would pay as much attention to the services that run mostly or only in England leaving passenger at stations such as Whitchurch, Chester, Hereford and many other stations with not as good services.

That suggests that you know little of the geography of the borderlands of Wales and how it interacts with the people of Wales. :roll:
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The inverse argument can also be made, and indeed it was made by Stuart Cole to the committee, that the DFT in Westminster don't care about rail services in Wales, so surely the WG should take control to make sure that the people in Wales get the high standard of rail services that they deserve and not the dire and laughable services that we have at the moment.

I would go further and suggest that there is an active anti-Welsh faction in the current Westminster incumbents, and they will do all they can to undermine the Welsh Assembly at any opportunity.

 

[tbtc]

This 2018 franchise is going to be awkwardly timed as a lot of the pressing decisions that need to be taken regarding the stock on 1 January 2020 are ones that need to be taken now.

Are there going to be many manufacturers with spare capacity to produce stock in sufficient number for it to be in squadron service by then?

Since Pacers* seem to have insufficient capacity but 153s are too long (north of Radyr?), what's the option if the Valley lines aren't wired by 2019 and there's no scope of getting self powered new-build stock in place by then? Scavenge around for 150s?

(* - There won't be sufficient 143s and 144s to operated everything doubled up anyway)

Colour me not surprised that no one knows what to do with public transport in Wales. Strikes me as a place with ambitions far beyond its ability to pay for them while not being able or willing to do boring, "balls aching" work to deliver cheaper, faster short term improvements while laying the ground work for more substantive capital investment schemes. It's a shame because there should be a really good market for decent bus and rail travel.

Agreed.

Do we get on with the practicalities of electrifying the Valley lines, sorting out some of the "spare" EMUs to tide them over for the first few years (e.g. 321s from the GEML, 315s post-Crossrail)...

...or do we focus more on rural re-openings and other projects in marginal constituencies?

He claimed there was a massive business case for electrification of the North Wales line when I thought the studies had shown it actually had a very poor economic case and was only useful in that it released stock

Good luck to anyone tackling electrification of the Coast line juggling the "better business case if 90% of trains are EMUs" with the desire for an hourly Cardiff - Holyhead service...

Maybe the Magic Money Tree of EU funding could have contributed a few quid, had the people of Wales not voted against continued membership?

 

[thenorthern]

Why not though? It's in the Welsh Govt's interest to make sure that routes and services that run along the Borders are of a good enough standard as these are the routes that bring in the profit for the franchise!

The inverse argument can also be made, and indeed it was made by Stuart Cole to the committee, that the DFT in Westminster don't care about rail services in Wales, so surely the WG should take control to make sure that the people in Wales get the high standard of rail services that they deserve and not the dire and laughable services that we have at the moment.

That suggests that you know little of the geography of the borderlands of Wales and how it interacts with the people of Wales. :roll:

Problem is its not just along the borders as its things like company that manages Chester station, a service that runs to Birmingham International, the main Manchester to Chester service and most trains in Shropshire.

Westminster is accountable to the Welsh electorate hence why they send MPs there but the Welsh Assembly isn't accountable to the electorate in England. Devolving the Wales and Border franchise would in effect mean that the people of Telford having the way the majority of the trains to the town are run largely decided by an authority that they don't elect and isn't accountable to them.

I think that any services that run wholly in England such as the Shrewsbury-Crewe stopper and the Crewe Chester shuttle should be transferred to the West Midlands and Northern franchises respectively, but cross border services should remain with the current franchise.

I would agree about those services being transferred to Northern but I doubt it would happen.

 

[transmanche]

Devolving the Wales and Border franchise would in effect mean that the people of Telford having the way the majority of the trains to the town are run largely decided by an authority that they don't elect and isn't accountable to them.

In just the same way as the people of Watford have the majority of the trains to the town (on two lines plus a couple of bus routes) largely decided by an authority that they don't elect and isn't accountable to them.

And nobody's died...

 

[the sniper]

I would agree about those services being transferred to Northern but I doubt it would happen.

It would make absolutely no sense for Crewe - Shrewsbury to go to Northern. If it goes away from the Welsh franchise it'll surely go to the West Mids franchise. Not only does it fit the WM map better, the West Mids franchise has a train crew depot at either end of the line and units are stabled at Shrewsbury.

As for Crewe - Chester, Northern makes sense map wise but unless Northern are opening a train crew depot and stabling facility at Chester (they may be, I don't remember), that too would make more sense to fall to the West Mids franchise, particularly with the 'West Coast Connect' franchise planned for 2024.

 

[J-2739]

The only solution for the rolling stock crisis is 230s.

 

[Kite159]

It would make absolutely no sense for Crewe - Shrewsbury to go to Northern. If it goes away from the Welsh franchise it'll surely go to the West Mids franchise. Not only does it fit the WM map better, the West Mids franchise has a train crew depot at either end of the line and units are stabled at Shrewsbury.

As for Crewe - Chester, Northern makes sense map wise but unless Northern are opening a train crew depot and stabling facility at Chester (they may be, I don't remember), that too would make more sense to fall to the West Mids franchise, particularly with the 'West Coast Connect' franchise planned for 2024.

A good fit would be for the Crewe - Shrewsbury locals to WM, running as an extension of the New Street - Shrewsbury stoppers on an hourly basis. Using the 170s freed up by the Chase Line getting wired up.

 

[Gareth Marston]

My local RUG has been contacted by a Sian James from "Abeilio Trains Wales" wanting to meet up, she sent some corporate facts and figures about Abeilio but so far no indication of any plans of theirs.
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But the MPs in Westminster have their heads buried in the sand, quite literally. If you watch the recording of the committee, the chair (a well known Brexiter in Wales to give you an idea of where he is on the political spectrum) opened proceedings by saying "the subsidy to ATW is 13p (or 30p?) per km, therefore why don't we just reduce the rail network in Wales and build more roads?" Stuart Cole then politely pointed out that to cope with the demand of commuters into Cardiff solely by road, the Tory constituency of Cardiff North would have to be almost entirely tarmaced over to build enough road capacity to cope with demand.

The startled chair then changed his tone. You despair with the people making decisions in government, they are so far removed from the reality what is happening in real life it's shocking.

That point was very well made - Which homes, schools, factories and hospitals in your constituency will be demolished to make way for the road system you want? Spending money on roads in built up areas is impossible without destroying them and its pointless throwing money at the road network in between conurbations as the road network fails as soon as you hit the urban fringe due to space constraints so theirs no point in inducing more traffic in between towns which then make urban congestion worse to which there is no practical roads based solution.

 

[richw]

My local RUG has been contacted by a Sian James from "Abeilio Trains Wales" wanting to meet up, she sent some corporate facts and figures about Abeilio but so far no indication of any plans of theirs.

The same Sian James who was MP for Swansea East from 2005-15? If so I gather she was very successful campaigner in her MP days, which may or may not be positive news.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

A good fit would be for the Crewe - Shrewsbury locals to WM, running as an extension of the New Street - Shrewsbury stoppers on an hourly basis. Using the 170s freed up by the Chase Line getting wired up.
__________________

I think those Chase Line units have been promised elswhere in the "LM" franchise ....

 

[gareth950]

I would go further and suggest that there is an active anti-Welsh faction in the current Westminster incumbents, and they will do all they can to undermine the Welsh Assembly at any opportunity.

Completely agreed. Why do we think that Wales is the only part of the UK with no plans for its rolling stock post 2020? NONE of the valley lines stock would currently make it past 2020. That's currently the responsibility of the DFT to organise - are they taking the responsibility at the moment for that? They'd rather delay making those decisions and in the meantime ensure that all cascaded Sprinter stock that is becoming available is now being allocated to English franchises, and pass the buck to the WG so when the WG gets control of the Welsh network next year they have a rolling stock ticking time bomb to deal with. :-x

Away from the railways, you just have to look at the vitriolic rhetoric that was coming out of Westminster in the 2015 General and 2016 Welsh elections regarding the Welsh NHS. You don't have to possess half a brain cell to know that the Welsh NHS is the system in the more stable and far better state.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Away from the railways, you just have to look at the vitriolic rhetoric that was coming out of Westminster in the 2015 General and 2016 Welsh elections regarding the Welsh NHS. You don't have to possess half a brain cell to know that the Welsh NHS is the system in the more stable and far better state.

I don't think you can be complacent about the state of the Welsh NHS, or Education. Plenty of trouble up north anyway.
The policy seems to be one of inaction while standards fall.

On rail, much depends on relations between the WG, the Welsh Office and DfT.
We still await the attitude of the "new" Tory government on devolution matters.

 

[PHILIPE]

Somebody needs to get on with this "who does what" shambles NOW. So far as Rolling stock is concerned, the lack of this requires dealing with xxx years AGO.
I shouldn't think the Shrewsbury to Crewe locals would be transferred if Wales & Borders retains the South/West Wales to Manchester services as some of these supplement the local service, especially early morning, night and on Sundays.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The same Sian James who was MP for Swansea East from 2005-15? If so I gather she was very successful campaigner in her MP days, which may or may not be positive news.

I think you'll find there's quite a few people with that name in Wales! Nothing at all to indicate it's the ex MP.
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Somebody needs to get on with this "who does what" shambles NOW. So far as Rolling stock is concerned, the lack of this requires dealing with xxx years AGO.
I shouldn't think the Shrewsbury to Crewe locals would be transferred if Wales & Borders retains the South/West Wales to Manchester services as some of these supplement the local service, especially early morning, night and on Sundays.

The rolling stock cascades will be clearer after the next couple of franchises are let. I can't see SWT running ex BR DMU's into Waterloo for much longer. Ok wales and Borders are near the back but Greater Anglia has freed up a lot of potential. I can see some 156/158's coming in and being used on valley lines until electrification to kill off pacers and then being cascaded out to rural Wales once the valleys wires are up.