Caledonian Sleeper discussion

[theironroad]

And I don't know how at those prices the air route survives.

Because they have booked well in advance and certainly a lot of the time is off season. While cs do seem to being some yield management, their base prices for the early birds are still much higher.

Serco have talked about a hotel on wheels since they took over, so as long as enough people are prepared to pay for the experience then they'll be happy. Most people who are being priced out of berths don't want a sleeper seat so will look to daytime trains or air.

 

[Norther Monkey]

Because not everyone on the flight will be paying that little. Airlines yield-manage ruthlessly.

Additionally the airline's 'rolling stock' and crew will be operating several sectors over a 24hr period rather than just one.

 

[Norther Monkey]

Because they have booked well in advance and certainly a lot of the time is off season. While cs do seem to being some yield management, their base prices for the early birds are still much higher.

Serco have talked about a hotel on wheels since they took over, so as long as enough people are prepared to pay for the experience then they'll be happy......

Serco have presumably done more reasearch into this than me, but I'm not convinced there's the demand, at those prices, to sustain a year round operation to Aberdeen in particular.
If, as seems likely, a good number of current clients are going elsewhere there's the challenge of creating new, presumably leisure, demand. Being turfed out into Aberdeen on a damp, dark winter morning isn't the most inspiring start to a holiday.

 

[ScottDarg]

I note the Fort William portion hasn't been recorded as leaving on RealTimeTrains yet, anyone have any info?

 

[Chrism20]

I note the Fort William portion hasn't been recorded as leaving on RealTimeTrains yet, anyone have any info?

There was a tweet about fifteen minutes ago saying it was delayed with updates to follow

 

[ScottDarg]

There was a tweet about fifteen minutes ago saying it was delayed with updates to follow

Thanks, didn't see that.

EDIT: Status update on the sleeper.scot website:

Service Update - Sunday 21st January 2018: Due to adverse weather conditions our Fort William-Euston service will be delayed, Further updates to follow

 

[InOban]

Because not everyone on the flight will be paying that little. Airlines yield-manage ruthlessly.

But if he can book at short notice and only pay £60. Breakeven is likely to be at least £50.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But if he can book at short notice and only pay £60. Breakeven is likely to be at least £50.

Also take into account food sales, extra fees etc, and the possibility that the flight in the other direction takes far more money.

 

[theironroad]

I note the Fort William portion hasn't been recorded as leaving on RealTimeTrains yet, anyone have any info?

Well the mallaig to queen street (1y48) left rannoch 50l due to heavy snow according to RTT and NRE app and is overdue at bridge or orchy by at least 90mins

 

[Mag_seven]

Well the mallaig to queen street (1y48) left rannoch 50l due to heavy snow according to RTT and NRE app and is overdue at bridge or orchy by at least 90mins

CS website:

"Service Update - Sunday 21st January 2018: Due to adverse weather conditions our Fort William-Euston service will be delayed, Further updates to follow"

 

[Highlandspring]

It is/was waiting on the guard arriving by taxi.

 

[crehld]

Serco have presumably done more reasearch into this than me, but I'm not convinced there's the demand, at those prices, to sustain a year round operation to Aberdeen in particular.
If, as seems likely, a good number of current clients are going elsewhere there's the challenge of creating new, presumably leisure, demand. Being turfed out into Aberdeen on a damp, dark winter morning isn't the most inspiring start to a holiday.

I've been a regular sleeper traveller for work since August. So here's my tuppence worth:

I didn't use the sleeper all that much before Serco so can't possibly comment on pre- and post- Serco price comparisons. But having used the sleeper between London / Crewe and Aberdeen eight times in the last two months (which I'd consider low season), comments of a lack of business aren't reflected in my actual experience. I haven't obviously done a head count in each berth, but each time the train seems reasonably full, every time I've gone standard I've always had to share, and on two occasions over the last two months I've been unable to book standard a few days before travel because it's been full and I've had to fork out for 1st (the boss is paying).

And besides who goes on holiday to Aberdeen?? The Aberdeen portion seems to cater for a very different market compared to the Fort William and Inverness portions. The vast majority seem to be travelling for work (as I do) which means employers are probably paying (as mine does). I can't speak for other employers but mine just pays, provided I can demonstrate I got the cheapest ticket (with a bed) - I just enclose a screen shot with the claim. Indeed I last week persuaded the boss to buy me a ten trip flexi pass.

I usually end up paying £90-£110 for standard and £140-£160 for first. Yes, some of the prices would put me off if I was paying for myself and travelling for no meaningful purpose, but I'm not. And I suspect that's the case with most people using the Aberdeen portion.

Every time I have checked flights the times haven't worked out, which means travelling the evening before and staying overnight in a travelodge or similar, the total cost of which is always more expensive.

 

[Steddenm]

From @NationalRail on Twitter:

Due to extreme weather conditions currently being experienced in the Highlands of Scotland, the train guard due to work the 19:00 Caledonian Sleeper service from Fort William to Edinburgh has been unable to reach Fort William to depart the train on time. ... It is currently expected that it will be at least 2 hrs 30 late departing (due to waiting the arrival of the train guard from Inverness by road).

 

[bonzawe]

From @NationalRail on Twitter:

Due to extreme weather conditions currently being experienced in the Highlands of Scotland, the train guard due to work the 19:00 Caledonian Sleeper service from Fort William to Edinburgh has been unable to reach Fort William to depart the train on time. ... It is currently expected that it will be at least 2 hrs 30 late departing (due to waiting the arrival of the train guard from Inverness by road).

RTT now shows as cancelled

This service was cancelled throughout due to an issue with the train crew (TH).

 

[Mag_seven]

From @NationalRail on Twitter:

Due to extreme weather conditions currently being experienced in the Highlands of Scotland, the train guard due to work the 19:00 Caledonian Sleeper service from Fort William to Edinburgh has been unable to reach Fort William to depart the train on time. ... It is currently expected that it will be at least 2 hrs 30 late departing (due to waiting the arrival of the train guard from Inverness by road).

The snow that is causing all the problems will probably have thawed by then.

 

[Marklund]

I don't believe it was because they would be unsafe, more that they would be a "first" for trains in the UK, so would need all manner of red-tape/design/red-tape/testing/red-tape/re-testing etc. to "prove" they were safe and be signed-off for use. Given the new stock is already 6 months behind schedule, with hindsight it was probably a sensible decision not to add this complication into the mix.

Yes, but what has to be remembered is it was a Franchise Requirement, which goes to show that ALL franchise requirements are subject to change, and of course subject to the correct financial agreement between TOC and DfT/TS.

 

[theironroad]

From @NationalRail on Twitter:

Due to extreme weather conditions currently being experienced in the Highlands of Scotland, the train guard due to work the 19:00 Caledonian Sleeper service from Fort William to Edinburgh has been unable to reach Fort William to depart the train on time. ... It is currently expected that it will be at least 2 hrs 30 late departing (due to waiting the arrival of the train guard from Inverness by road).

Do Serco have their own guards or are Scotrail or someone else's?

To cancel throughout is pretty extreme especially on a Sunday evening.

 

[Bungle965]

Do Serco have their own guards or are Scotrail or someone else's?

To cancel throughout is pretty extreme especially on a Sunday evening.

They have their own guards now.
Sam

 

[theironroad]

Seems like the serco cal sleeper Twitter and Facebook feeds are only a mon-fri 9-5 marketing opportunity as now current info on there.

 

[BRX]

I don't believe it was because they would be unsafe, more that they would be a "first" for trains in the UK, so would need all manner of red-tape/design/red-tape/testing/red-tape/re-testing etc. to "prove" they were safe and be signed-off for use. Given the new stock is already 6 months behind schedule, with hindsight it was probably a sensible decision not to add this complication into the mix.

I don't think I agree - given that these trains will (hopefully) be in service for at least 20-30 years, and possibly with no opportunity to fundamentally change the basic setup during that time, it would seem worthwhile taking another 6 months at this stage to really get it right.

 

[Carlisle]

They have their own guards now.
Sam

Presumably a disadvantage of a very small TOC like Caledonian Sleeper is circumstances like this with little or no backup, if a member staff can’t make a booked shift for whatever reason. Larger operators economies of scale have probably proved a lot more beneficial to the railways throughout most of their existence

 

[47271]

I've been a regular sleeper traveller for work since August. So here's my tuppence worth:

I didn't use the sleeper all that much before Serco so can't possibly comment on pre- and post- Serco price comparisons. But having used the sleeper between London / Crewe and Aberdeen eight times in the last two months (which I'd consider low season), comments of a lack of business aren't reflected in my actual experience. I haven't obviously done a head count in each berth, but each time the train seems reasonably full, every time I've gone standard I've always had to share, and on two occasions over the last two months I've been unable to book standard a few days before travel because it's been full and I've had to fork out for 1st (the boss is paying).

And besides who goes on holiday to Aberdeen?? The Aberdeen portion seems to cater for a very different market compared to the Fort William and Inverness portions. The vast majority seem to be travelling for work (as I do) which means employers are probably paying (as mine does). I can't speak for other employers but mine just pays, provided I can demonstrate I got the cheapest ticket (with a bed) - I just enclose a screen shot with the claim. Indeed I last week persuaded the boss to buy me a ten trip flexi pass.

I usually end up paying £90-£110 for standard and £140-£160 for first. Yes, some of the prices would put me off if I was paying for myself and travelling for no meaningful purpose, but I'm not. And I suspect that's the case with most people using the Aberdeen portion.

Every time I have checked flights the times haven't worked out, which means travelling the evening before and staying overnight in a travelodge or similar, the total cost of which is always more expensive.

I think you've pretty much hit the nail on the head - for now.

At the risk of repeating myself from previous posts, Serco need to understand that there's a getting off point for regular business travel a little over the current £145 Flexipass single price - I'm informed by some affected that it's an absolute max £170 or it's a flight the night before and hotel. If they get it then they'll retain this market. If they think they're running the Orient Express to Arbroath in February then they can forget it. We'll see.

 

[TimboM]

Serco have presumably done more reasearch into this than me, but I'm not convinced there's the demand, at those prices, to sustain a year round operation to Aberdeen in particular.
If, as seems likely, a good number of current clients are going elsewhere there's the challenge of creating new, presumably leisure, demand. Being turfed out into Aberdeen on a damp, dark winter morning isn't the most inspiring start to a holiday.

If that happens, they'll drop the prices surely? And all will be well again...!?

 

[TimboM]

Yes, but what has to be remembered is it was a Franchise Requirement, which goes to show that ALL franchise requirements are subject to change, and of course subject to the correct financial agreement between TOC and DfT/TS.

Any Franchise/contractual agreement can be changed if both parties agree - particularly if both parties agree it's not feasible/desired anymore...

 

[TimboM]

Seems like the serco cal sleeper Twitter and Facebook feeds are only a mon-fri 9-5 marketing opportunity as now current info on there.

They have spells of being very informative with many updates about the slightest delay or that everything is on time; or there's not a lot forthcoming. I suspect whoever's on shift tonight has their hands full dealing directly with passengers stranded at Fort Bill and stations in between.

 

[theironroad]

I'm sure that I'm not the first to say this, but here goes anyway.

How long until Serco throw the keys in in a East Coast style and either say they can't continue or demand a renegotiation of the contract, in their favour, in a similar style to the current Virgin/stagecoach farce.

I'll give it to 1 January 2020 max.....

 

[Marklund]

Any Franchise/contractual agreement can be changed if both parties agree - particularly if both parties agree it's not feasible/desired anymore...

Absoluetly, yet it seems to be quite a doctrine on here that they are rigid, and not just for CS.

 

[TimboM]

I don't think I agree - given that these trains will (hopefully) be in service for at least 20-30 years, and possibly with no opportunity to fundamentally change the basic setup during that time, it would seem worthwhile taking another 6 months at this stage to really get it right.

I agree with your point/outlook, but unfortunately I suspect a shortish-term view was taken with the stock even though it's designed to last decades - in that politically, the new contract started on 1 April 2015 with great fanfare about how it would herald a new era and the very old worn stock would be replaced with the wonderful new shiny stock that Transport Scotland (and DfT) were paying for etc. etc... In this day and age people expect things to happen tomorrow, so there was already a challenge to then manage the message that the very tired old stock would actually still be around for 3 more years (at that point).

You can see the gnashing of teeth and sharpening of knives that has come with the announcement the stock is 6 months late (so far) - so whilst it would be great for everyone to think longer term and make the right decisions for the whole 20-30 years, I suspect those in the hot seat were/are looking at the political (and commercial?) gains/losses that may result in the shorter-term and wanting to get the new stock in ASAP.

Short-termism is a problem that impacts a lot of UK companies/industry and not just the railways - all focus tends to be on this year's results (or next year's election) and achieving (or winning) those and not taking a longer-term view which would ultimately be of greater benefit to all concerned.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Absoluetly, yet it seems to be quite a doctrine on here that they are rigid, and not just for CS.

Quite, this seems almost obsessive when it comes to talk of Northern rolling stock changes as a result of reduced electrification and delays, for instance.

 

[TimboM]

I'm sure that I'm not the first to say this, but here goes anyway.

How long until Serco throw the keys in in a East Coast style and either say they can't continue or demand a renegotiation of the contract, in their favour, in a similar style to the current Virgin/stagecoach farce.

I'll give it to 1 January 2020 max.....

I don't think the CS Franchise is quite like any other either in the way its set up from a funding perspective (i.e. it's already heavily subsidised by the government) nor in terms of the level of political desire for it to operate even though without that subsidy it'd be commercially unviable (by a long way).

So I'll give them until 2030!