Virgin Trains East Coast franchise to end 24 June 2018 and is temporarily re-nationalised

[backontrack]

With any luck we'll become 'regular commuters' who've commented on the state of the railways in half of the papers tomorrow

Sam, from Kent, had this to say about the crisis:

"HI, MUM! I'M ON THE NEWS!"

That'll be going viral tomorrow.

 

[XCTurbostar]

We could see another new livery on the 91s yet!!

 

[Mikey C]

Meridian was presumably created by MML as HT used an alternative name for their 222s but has transferred with the franchise to EMT. Whoever owns the Trade Mark probably has little to no interest or need in preventing others using it.

I assume they also wanted to differentiate their new trains from the unpopular Voyagers

 

[bonzawe]

These "promised" improvements weren't in the plan for the next control period. It's fake news to distract from the fact VTEC has failed due to today's greedy mismanagement, not tomorrow's hypothetical infrastructure changes.

The buck stops with Griffiths. No wonder he's doing a video about DA TROOF that wouldn't look out of place on InfoWars.

My own experience is that I took my first ever domestic flight not long after Stagecoach came in and ramped up fares. It was with BA and it was fifty quid- FIFTY QUID!- cheaper than the train. I've only gone back when I've had no other choice.

Delivery dates may not have been agreed between DFT and NR but the contract DFt signed with VTEC using a Azuma fleet 20% bigger then the current fleet 45 to 54 full length trains and an additional small number of class 91 retained most definitely did require these enhancements. PSU2 even has not got a delivery date, without this we may well have bimodes operating on Diesel under the wires north of York as the power supply cannot cope. Why supply the extra trains if paths to use them don't exist.

DFT left foot not knowing what the right was doing

 

[Far north 37]

On the news at ten just now saying what a dire service it is then an advert for virgin trains at the break got to love the media.

 

[Danfilm007]

That's exactly what they thought they could do. Like always, they buy into their own hubris about how so much better and more efficient the private sector is.

Stands to reason you can whack fares up and service down and nobody will notice if you slap a shiny sticker on the side. Tell them it's awesome and they won't notice the stench.

DOR made a difficult job look easy, but everybody buys into the hubris that a state company can't run a business, so stands to reason a killing could be made dunnit.

If they REALLY wanted to rinse money quickly you're not going to inject millions on refurbs of stock that goes off lease in about 5 years, inject 200 million of your own/shareholder money AND an extra 165 million before it collapses, are you? The private sector has provided the railways with a much better position than it was found it. ECML procurement may be broken - the system generally isn't.

 

[Mikey C]

Many European governments are getting concerned about the promises their rail companies have signed up for in the franchises they've won. It'll be interesting to see who else has over promised, expecting a nice pot of gold at the end of the rainbow...

 

[Danfilm007]

Sam, from Kent, had this to say about the crisis:

"HI, MUM! I'M ON THE NEWS!"

That'll be going viral tomorrow.

That's nothing compared to some of the stuff I come out with

RE: FN37 - there is a level of irony!

 

[Danfilm007]

Delivery dates may not have been agreed between DFT and NR but the contract DFt signed with VTEC using a Azuma fleet 20% bigger then the current fleet 45 to 54 full length trains and an additional small number of class 91 retained most definitely did require these enhancements. PSU2 even has not got a delivery date, without this we may well have bimodes operating on Diesel under the wires north of York as the power supply cannot cope. Why supply the extra trains if paths to use them don't exist.

DFT left foot not knowing what the right was doing

DFT won't have willingly procured a new fleet off their own back if it was going to cause them bother. The IEP project is running late, the additional that project needs to run smoothly is running late, we've cut back on electrification we were meant to get in Wales and all over England - you can't benefit or provide from what you don't have!

 

[backontrack]

Here are some thoughts and question on what happens now:

1) Will this finally mean renationalisation? Answer: no, this is Grayling we're talking about. The Government won't take it back into state ownership even temporarily if it could work towards building a greater case for nationalisation, so...

2) We're probably looking at another tendering process. So who will be bidding? Virgin, again, in a majority stake? Stagecoach on their own, seeking to start afresh? I imagine that First will properly make their move now. Perhaps Arriva will take hold of the franchise - in which case, integration with CrossCountry would be interesting - or maybe an entirely new franchisee? Or even someone mad like Abellio?

 

[Teflon Lettuce]

this question may have already been answered earlier in the thread, but I'm confused... how comes a franchise that always runs at a profit when in the public sector is so catastrophically loss making when handed to private contractors?

 

[WatcherZero]

No they didn't.

https://www.railmagazine.com/news/network/record-levels-of-private-investment-in-uk-rail

 

[corsaVXR]

Still not sure why they gave Virgin/Stagecoach a monopoly on North/South Intercity. Still not sure why a lucrative package of services is handed in a package of a franchise - It would be better for travellers if operators on intercity had to bid for services as 100% open access. Then you could have a choice between a city pair of travelling at times / prices / service.

 

[Danfilm007]

2) We're probably looking at another tendering process. So who will be bidding? Virgin, again, in a majority stake? Stagecoach on their own, seeking to start afresh? I imagine that First will properly make their move now. Perhaps Arriva will take hold of the franchise - in which case, integration with CrossCountry would be interesting - or maybe an entirely new franchisee? Or even someone mad like Abellio?

I mean, Virgin may be more likely seeing as all of the headlines are running with "STAGECOACH BAILS", not Virgin. Who is the consortium of VT, SC and (?) on the West Coast bid? You never know - maybe Sea Containers will come out of this and decide we need GNER back... (joking!)

 

[Tetchytyke]

inject millions on refurbs of stock that goes off lease in about 5 years

Millions? Hardly. It was about £15k/carriage wasn't it? A bit of red moquette or some fake dead cow up the posh seats. I'd hardly call it a refurbishment. A refresh, maybe.

As for the £200m, they're not spending it, they're handing the keys back because they got their sums wrong. That's the problem. What they thought would be like shooting fish in a barrel, well, wasn't.

 

[WatcherZero]

this question may have already been answered earlier in the thread, but I'm confused... how comes a franchise that always runs at a profit when in the public sector is so catastrophically loss making when handed to private contractors?

It was making a massive profit the company had just committed to paying the government more in premiums to run the franchise than it was making in profits, after their first year in charge significantly expanding on the amount East Coast were paying back.

 

[CptCharlee]

Hearing talk Northern could be heading the same way. Surely not. It's nightmare senario for DfT.

 

[Tetchytyke]

all of the headlines are running with "STAGECOACH BAILS", not Virgin.

I noticed that too. Interesting, I have to say.

Typical beardy. Would normally go to the opening of an envelope, but when the ordure hits the air-blower...

 

[DenmarkRail]

I mean, Virgin may be more likely seeing as all of the headlines are running with "STAGECOACH BAILS", not Virgin. Who is the consortium of VT, SC and (?) on the West Coast bid? You never know - maybe Sea Containers will come out of this and decide we need GNER back... (joking!)

Danish State Railway + Arriva (DB). Dream team.

 

[Hadders]

this question may have already been answered earlier in the thread, but I'm confused... how comes a franchise that always runs at a profit when in the public sector is so catastrophically loss making when handed to private contractors?

Because Stagecoach/Virgin agreed to pay franchise premium payments to the Government that were more than the profits made when it was run by the public sector.

 

[Tetchytyke]

expanding on the amount East Coast were paying back.

Except they weren't, because the premiums were all back-loaded.

Stagecoach took a well-run state business and ruined it. They believed their own hubris. Thought their private sector "efficiency" would drive up profits by driving down costs. Turns out leisure travellers won't put up with being fleeced...

 

[Agent_Squash]

Millions? Hardly. It was about £15k/carriage wasn't it? A bit of red moquette or some fake dead cow up the posh seats. I'd hardly call it a refurbishment. A refresh, maybe.

As for the £200m, they're not spending it, they're handing the keys back because they got their sums wrong. That's the problem. What they thought would be like shooting fish in a barrel, well, wasn't.

Would you be able to predict the change in the economy that has taken place since VTEC was awarded?

It appears your willing to discredit information purely to suit your agenda.

 

[XCTurbostar]

Hearing talk Northern could be heading the same way. Surely not. It's nightmare senario for DfT.

Who from?

 

[Danfilm007]

Millions? Hardly. It was about £15k/carriage wasn't it? A bit of red moquette or some fake dead cow up the posh seats. I'd hardly call it a refurbishment. A refresh, maybe.

As for the £200m, they're not spending it, they're handing the keys back because they got their sums wrong. That's the problem. What they thought would be like shooting fish in a barrel, well, wasn't.

Which makes the fleet refresh at nearly £6.3 million then? Admittedly that's at Wikipedia references of carriages, but still...

 

[Danfilm007]

I noticed that too. Interesting, I have to say.

Typical beardy. Would normally go to the opening of an envelope, but when the ordure hits the air-blower...

Or that it's 90/10 Stagecoach to Virgin?

 

[matt_world2004]

Martin Griffiths of Stagecoach has wanted to share "The real story of Virgin Trains East Coast", by this 6 minute, 1 second video...

https://players.brightcove.net/1555966121001/default_default/index.html?videoId=5726503939001

That video is going to be his professional epithaph

 

[WatcherZero]

As for the £200m, they're not spending it, they're handing the keys back because they got their sums wrong. That's the problem. What they thought would be like shooting fish in a barrel, well, wasn't.

The £200m is the amount of private financing as investment capital they've put in to the company in excess of the recoupable bonds that they will never be able to recoup when the contract is terminated and the company wound up, primarily the £185m of parent company financing to bridge the shortfall in revenue to make premium payments. Though as Tony Miles points out they are likely to get a significant amount of the £200m back through suing Network Rail for breach of contract and compensation.

 

[LOL The Irony]

I mean, Virgin may be more likely seeing as all of the headlines are running with "STAGECOACH BAILS", not Virgin. Who is the consortium of VT, SC and (?) on the West Coast bid? You never know - maybe Sea Containers will come out of this and decide we need GNER back... (joking!)

Danish State Railway + Arriva (DB). Dream team.

I think you'll find it's SNCF.

 

[Darandio]

Or that it's 90/10 Stagecoach to Virgin?

Makes no difference at all, when it's going good he will happily make you think it's /100. You can also guarantee that until this evening, the majority of passengers wouldn't have even known Stagecoach were involved.

 

[DenmarkRail]

I think you'll find it's SNCF.

No, my dream team is Danish State Railways + Arriva DB.