HLOS for CP6 (2019-24)

[swt_passenger]

Are any 3rd parties going to come forward with money?

A Mr Corbyn apparently has a new source of cash. But he's probably not exactly a '3rd party'...

 

[Gareth Marston]

And just at the point that Nr will have got sufficient experience in doing wiring and will have worked out how to bring costs down and the teams will be at peak efficiency the work will dry up.

3 elections of broken railway promises from the Torys.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Are any 3rd parties going to come forward with money?

I think in this context people like Transport for the North will be funders, using devolved funds for the region.
Or City Regions, in the way the Halton Curve is being built (as part of the Treasury/Liverpool CR deal).
Trans-pennine electrification is notably absent in today's announcements.
I suspect this will be devolved to TfN to decide what to do locally, based on the Northern Powerhouse programme.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Trans-pennine electrification is notably absent in today's announcements.

I am glad I was not the only one who noticed that.

 

[pemma]

I am glad I was not the only one who noticed that.

Also Bolton to Wigan and Manchester to Stalybridge (the other two parts of the North West program) weren't mentioned.

 

[pemma]

3 elections of broken railway promises from the Tories.

Don't worry they'll be plenty of rail investment in Northern Ireland using the money that was supposed to be used on projects in England and Wales. :mad:

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Don't worry they'll be plenty of rail investment in Northern Ireland using the money that was supposed to be used on projects in England and Wales. :mad:

No, they'll spend it on roads.
Or not at all, if they can't sort out their differences locally.

 

[Kettledrum]

Here's what the DfT has to say on the HLOS and SoFA:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-level-output-specification-2017

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/rail-infrastructure-funding-2019-to-2024

.

Does anyone else think that the passenger projections for Leeds, Manchester and particularly Birmingham are unreasonably low. Growth in arrivals for the 3 hour peak in Birmingham between 2019/19 and 2023/24 is from 48,300 to 49,400. That is 2.2%

Last year alone on the cross city line, passenger numbers increased by 9.8% -See

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/new...-number-passengers-using-birminghams-12282960

Major professional services companies are re-locating hundreds of staff into Birmingham City Centre - PWC, HS2, Deutsche Bank, HSBC so the figure in the output statement will be smashed.

Are the forecasts being suppressed to starve the rail network outside London of some of the development funds that are so badly needed?

 

[furnessvale]

Does anyone else think that the passenger projections for Leeds, Manchester and particularly Birmingham are unreasonably low. Growth in arrivals for the 3 hour peak in Birmingham between 2019/19 and 2023/24 is from 48,300 to 49,400. That is 2.2%

Last year alone on the cross city line, passenger numbers increased by 9.8% -See

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/new...-number-passengers-using-birminghams-12282960

Major professional services companies are re-locating hundreds of staff into Birmingham City Centre - PWC, HS2, Deutsche Bank, HSBC so the figure in the output statement will be smashed.

Are the forecasts being suppressed to starve the rail network outside London of some of the development funds that are so badly needed?

Predict and provide was for many years the maxim applied to road provision in the UK.

They are simply applying the principle to rail, with deliberately low predictions, to stifle rail investment.

 

[pemma]

Does anyone else think that the passenger projections for Leeds, Manchester and particularly Birmingham are unreasonably low. Growth in arrivals for the 3 hour peak in Birmingham between 2019/19 and 2023/24 is from 48,300 to 49,400. That is 2.2%

Last year alone on the cross city line, passenger numbers increased by 9.8% -See

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/new...-number-passengers-using-birminghams-12282960

Major professional services companies are re-locating hundreds of staff into Birmingham City Centre - PWC, HS2, Deutsche Bank, HSBC so the figure in the output statement will be smashed.

Are the forecasts being suppressed to starve the rail network outside London of some of the development funds that are so badly needed?

A few years ago some rail 'experts' were saying the growth in usage had peaked and was starting to only increase at the same level as the population was increasing. Yet that proved to be wrong. Some stations in the North have seen 100% growth in 10 years, now some of that's down to less ticket-less travel but a lot of it's down to extra passengers highlighted by services which would have had empty seats 10 years ago being at bursting point if extra seats/services haven't been added to the route.

 

[Chester1]

Could part of the reason for low peak time growth be the continuing moves to push people towards advanced tickets? Anytime peak returns are becoming increasingly extortionate which should mean more capacity for season ticket users and higher loadings on off peak trains. Even so, the prediction seems low.

 

[pemma]

Could part of the reason for low peak time growth be the continuing moves to push people towards advanced tickets? Anytime peak returns are becoming increasingly extortionate which should mean more capacity for season ticket users and higher loadings on off peak trains. Even so, the prediction seems low.

Based on some Manchester area services I think there's been an increase in people commuting in the direction away from a big city in the morning peak and towards it in the evening peak. We now have overcrowded trains heading towards Manchester at 18:00, which wasn't the case 10 years ago.

 

[WatcherZero]

There has been a slow down in growth in London and South East traffic recently which used lead annual growth, possibly due to the industrial action, however regional and long distance are still growing quickly.

The Housing market in London is also in retreat; demand dropped 10% over the last 12 months and prices were growing well below national average falling in most months (net 1.1% increase compared to Manchester where they rose 9%) whereas in regional cities its accelerating. Migration out of London has doubled in the last 5 years.

 

[Olaf]

And just at the point that Nr will have got sufficient experience in doing wiring and will have worked out how to bring costs down and the teams will be at peak efficiency the work will dry up.

3 elections of broken railway promises from the Torys.

The verdict is still out on NR; a case of Great Expectations.

 

[Olaf]

I think in this context people like Transport for the North will be funders, using devolved funds for the region.
Or City Regions, in the way the Halton Curve is being built (as part of the Treasury/Liverpool CR deal).
Trans-pennine electrification is notably absent in today's announcements.
I suspect this will be devolved to TfN to decide what to do locally, based on the Northern Powerhouse programme.

I think the intention is for funding to come from the private sector with land-side deals to help finance the investments (for example) - not specifically for funding from provincial bodies UNLESS the funds (or part of) are raised by local levies of some kind.

 

[Olaf]

Does anyone else think that the passenger projections for Leeds, Manchester and particularly Birmingham are unreasonably low. Growth in arrivals for the 3 hour peak in Birmingham between 2019/19 and 2023/24 is from 48,300 to 49,400. That is 2.2%

Last year alone on the cross city line, passenger numbers increased by 9.8% -See

http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/new...-number-passengers-using-birminghams-12282960

Major professional services companies are re-locating hundreds of staff into Birmingham City Centre - PWC, HS2, Deutsche Bank, HSBC so the figure in the output statement will be smashed.

Are the forecasts being suppressed to starve the rail network outside London of some of the development funds that are so badly needed?

Yes indeed; all those projections look on the low side compared with previous projections at the start of a Control Period.

There is something else being taken into account of in those numbers and I suspect that it is due to Treasury estimates of impact of coming global economy downturn.

 

[Olaf]

A few years ago some rail 'experts' were saying the growth in usage had peaked and was starting to only increase at the same level as the population was increasing. Yet that proved to be wrong. Some stations in the North have seen 100% growth in 10 years, now some of that's down to less ticket-less travel but a lot of it's down to extra passengers highlighted by services which would have had empty seats 10 years ago being at bursting point if extra seats/services haven't been added to the route.

There was a problem with the model which consistently under-estimated growth in some of the provincial cities by around 5%. This gave rise to under estimates of demand for example on the Northern TOC.

I am under the impression that the problem in the model has been addressed in recent years.

 

[IanXC]

I'm cautiously optimistic that this suggests we might be moving in a sensible direction towards suburban schemes, which can actually make use of some of the vast amount of stock coming available!

Q58Chair: You obviously think that the Government’s decision back in 2012 to undertake this electrification was flawed.

Chris Grayling: I do not think it was flawed. The point about electrification is that it works well in places, and in other places it works less well—for example, electrifying a high-intensity suburban line where trains are stopping and starting in very short order, or electrifying a 125-mph main line railway. When a train can go at only 75 mph, as it can in south Wales, it is much less clear that it is beneficial. The benefit-cost ratio in that example, for the Cardiff-Swansea route, is very low.

We have to get away from concern about the form of traction. What passengers care about is whether they have a nice,comfortable modern train that gets them to where they want to go at a faster time and in a comfortable environment of the kind they expect on their trains. That is happening. If you look at the Cardiff to Swansea route, those trains are starting now.

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...-the-department-for-transport/oral/71474.html

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I'm cautiously optimistic that this suggests we might be moving in a sensible direction towards suburban schemes, which can actually make use of some of the vast amount of stock coming available!

I must admit I too am cautiously optimistic

 

[Class 170101]

in the Quote Ian XC refers to above references to trains operating at 75mph I would disagree that its less beneficial to have electric traction. Speed improvements are cheaper and easier to obtain at lower speeds than higher speeds. Lower speed limits being improved also benefit more trains.

Electric trains are also more reliable carry no fuel and even with electric transmission losses are still more efficient than diesel combustion engines (ie DMUs). Track damage is also lower for Electric Trains.

 

[Olaf]

I'm cautiously optimistic that this suggests we might be moving in a sensible direction towards suburban schemes, which can actually make use of some of the vast amount of stock coming available!



http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...-the-department-for-transport/oral/71474.html

There is no indication of that in the statement. The second paragraph is the one to focus on; it reflects the previously stated emphasis on the Digital Railway going forward:

...
We have to get away from concern about the form of traction. What passengers care about is whether they have a nice,comfortable modern train that gets them to where they want to go at a faster time and in a comfortable environment of the kind they expect on their trains. That is happening. ...

 

[WatcherZero]

Strategic Business Plans published by NR, back to ORR to scrutinise and then final determination in October.

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/who-we-are/publications-resources/strategic-business-plan-2019-2024/

They've just kept it to operations and maintenance spending mostly excluding enhancements which would be funded on an individual basis though this seems to vary by who wrote the route plan, for example on LNW route plan they are proposing to allocate just £270m for enhancements from the main budget renewing Crewe signalling in conjunction with HS2 works and no mention of other possible enhancements, there are also a load of national network HS2 enhancements on LNW they expect HS2 to fund:
HS2 Phase 1 On Network Works
• Euston Enabling works – Station, Railway Systems, 11kv diversion & essential works
• Central East West Rail
• Water Orton Corridor
• Handsacre Junction
• Ground investigation
• HALO activity
• Double tracking Leamington - Coventry
• WOC Electrification
• WOC addtl capacity - SAS Bridge
• HS2 mass haulage strategy
• WOC Cemex Stockpiling
• WOC Saltley DU
HS2 Phase 1 Rolling stock associated works
• Rolling stock intro - gauging (TIIS)
• Alterations to NR Infrastructure when gauge/route info is available
HS2 Phase 1 Timetable works
• Stafford South Jn
• Wigan - Euxton
• Preston Passenger capacity
• HS2 Station branding improvements
• HS2 Depot enhancements
• HS2 required WCML linespeed improvements
HS2 Phase 2A On Network Works
• Interventions as per hybrid bill
• Crewe re-signalling
• Crewe OHLE/track
• Madeley - Crewe ONW AsPro
• Staveley - New Crofton
• Stone
• Sandbach - Manchester Picc
• South of Crewe Works
HS2 Phase 2 On Network works
• Rolling Stock depot
HS2 Phase 2 Timetable works
• Sandbach to Manchester interventions
• Crewe to Manchester interventions
• Crewe to Weaver

Meanwhile on LNE they are more explicit about what enhancements could be funded £686.1m for MML, £2.9bn for Transpennine, £822.8m on East Coast

East Coast
• King’s Cross station throat enhancements (contribution to a renewal-funded remodelling project)
• Werrington – grade separated access to the GN/GE line (Error! Reference source not found.)
• Huntingdon-Woodwalton Four Tracking – restoring the fourth line
• Peterborough – upgrade the Down Slow line between Fletton to Peterborough
• Doncaster Station area enhancements, including an additional platform
• Northallerton to Newcastle – additional freight loops
• IEP enabling projects covering gauging in England and Scotland, platform extensions and PSU1
related power infrastructure upgrades (see below)
• Power Supply Upgrade Phase 1 Wood Green to Bawtry (PSU1)
• Power Supply Upgrade Phase 2 Bawtry to Edinburgh (PSU2)
• Stevenage station

Transpennine
Current
• Capacity and journey time improvements between Stalybridge and Leeds and on to York and Selby
• Leeds Station capacity improvements
• Micklefield Junction and Church Fenton line speed improvements (Figure 16) and Garforth area line speed enhancements
Four Key Outputs
• Improved Journey times – specifically a reduction in journey time of up to 15 minutes between Manchester Victoria and York compared with the current journey time of 75 minutes,
• Additional capacity to support additional services and longer trains and
• Improved performance of passenger train services
• Electrification options of the route from Manchester Victoria to Leeds and on to York and Selby

MML
• London to Corby Electrification and Capacity Upgrade (L2C) - Provision on an additional 4th line between Sharnbrook and Kettering, Installation of 25Kv Overhead Line between Bedford, Kettering and Corby, provision of an electric stabling facility at Kettering and provision of W6A to W12 gauge clearance between Bedford, Kettering and Corby
• Kettering to Corby Capacity: installation of an additional track between Kettering and Corby and giving provision of axle weight clearances between Kettering and Corby of RA10 at 60mph and RA8 at 90mph.
• Market Harborough Line Speed Improvements (LSI): Realignment of the track and associated infrastructure through the Market Harborough Station area with significant station alterations.
• Leicester Line Speed Improvement: Replacement of S&C at Leicester London Road Junction and raising of Permanent Speed Restriction through the junction.
• Derby Re-Modelling: Signalling and track remodelling in the Derby station area, construction of a new station platform and alterations to the station footbridge, alterations to existing station platforms, renewal of
simplified level crossing at Spondon and alterations to Etches Park depot entrance and Chaddesden Sidings.
• Derby to Sheffield Journey Time Improvement (JTI): selected infrastructure interventions to improve line speed
• Midland Main Line Programme KO1a - Providing traction power upgrades and extension of platforms at key stations north of Leicester
Leicester Grade separation Hendy scheme still being progressed

 

[Taunton]

I'm sure a significant number of the above have been announced about half a dozen times or more in previous years.

Is there anything new?

 

[snowball]

• Sandbach to Manchester interventions
• Crewe to Manchester interventions

Suggests a lack of proof-reading! Or is the purpose of one to undo the effects of the other?

• Power Supply Upgrade Phase 1 Wood Green to Bawtry (PSU1)
• Power Supply Upgrade Phase 2 Bawtry to Edinburgh (PSU2)

Also suggests a lack of proof-reading as PSU1 has been completed.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Lots of detail here.
I see Coventry-Leamington doubling has now reappeared as an HS2-related project.
Last time it was part of the Electric Spine project!
No funding agreed for any of the HS2-related work of course.
Crewe seems to be in line for a comprehensive remodelling, as an HS2/ETCS project.
I hadn't realised that Armitage-Colwich on the WCML was still 1960s BR signalling, also to be replaced.
Birmingham New St will be the final upgrade and transfer to WMSC in the West Midlands (though Aston controlling the cross-city line may stay as it is).
Worcester resignalling (and transfer to WMSC) is on hold without extra money.
NR has dropped plans to immunise the signalling at Port Talbot for OHLE, as the wiring project has been cancelled.
I'm sure there is lots more buried in individual route plans.

 

[adrock1976]

I would like to ask a quick question here so as to clarify something here regarding the electrification of the route from Manchester Victoria to Leeds and on to York and Selby.

Am I right in thinking that the plans relating to the above refers to the former London & North Western route via Huddersfield, or is it the former Lancashire & Yorkshire route via Hebden Bridge that is planned for electrification?

 

[snowball]

I would like to ask a quick question here so as to clarify something here regarding the electrification of the route from Manchester Victoria to Leeds and on to York and Selby.

Am I right in thinking that the plans relating to the above refers to the former London & North Western route via Huddersfield, or is it the former Lancashire & Yorkshire route via Hebden Bridge that is planned for electrification?

Via Huddersfield.

Grayling has suggested the outcome may be partial electrification, omitting the difficult bits, and use of bi-modes.

The GRIP 3 report has been completed but not published. It is being considered by NR and DfT.

 

[WatcherZero]

Property unit is requesting £300m for station improvements along with a further £135m capital for joint projects, it says if the station funding is not forthcoming then income will be £32m lower and if the £135m is not provided development returns will be £37m lower. In Scotland because the property disposals aren't occurring they expect the Scottish Government to make up the difference in funds (£18m). Property in England has a target return of 6.5% but in Scotland because of social policy they expect the returns to be half as much and have requested £2.5m for community schemes.
Projects mentioned are large retail projects at London Victoria (£77m) which is to cover the £7.5m of lost income due to decongestion measures, Liverpool St (£65) Glasgow Central (Caledonian Chambers) and Edinburgh Waverley (new retail building at rear of station) along with smaller schemes. There would also be the usual Access for All and NSIP enhancements but no enhancement funding allocated by government yet.
Overall the budget for CP6 is £399m on renewals, £1.31bn running costs, £366m staff, £1.175bn property income, £125m from property disposals.

 

[dp21]

I'll be interested to read through the various route SBPs as having read through Wessex and Anglia I've come across some interesting projects in the Woking flyover and replacement of Liverpool Street Roof amongst others. Obviously this is all subject to approval but still. Must be a lot out there.

 

[59CosG95]

I'll be interested to read through the various route SBPs as having read through Wessex and Anglia I've come across some interesting projects in the Woking flyover and replacement of Liverpool Street Roof amongst others. Obviously this is all subject to approval but still. Must be a lot out there.

Ah, that's an interesting bulletin with regards the Anglia plan. Liverpool St's roof certainly needs replacing; barely any natural light filters through the grime-stained panes of glass to the platforms now.
I had a feeling Woking Flyover was a certainty for inclusion in CP6, given how busy the Wessex Route is.