SouthEastern franchise direct award through to 1 April 2020 (& franchise competition terminated)

[ScotGG]

No doubt the government and Southeastern are squabbling over money. The Williams Review has shown that the UK delivers one of the best rates of value for money to the taxpayer in Europe however they seem to always want more and it leads to cheap deals being done and no incentive for the franchise to innovate and invest in the business.

What they mean is pushing fare costs away from the taxpayer to passenger - which increases fares and hurts the poorest. It's not even a reduction in tax burden on a wider level though as the UK then spends many billions in welfare to cover high cost of living (which isn't paid to anywhere near the same extent in most EU nations) where housing, transport and other costs are lower.

 

[Mikey C]

Perhaps parliament should have a debate on the 4 franchise options...

 

[700007]

Perhaps parliament should have a debate on the 4 franchise options...

Judging by tonight (and last week) they will reject all 4 options...

As Bercow: The Noes have it, the noes have it!

 

[Mollman]

Perhaps the reason for the delay is because the new franchise brings such a good deal for passengers that the government wants it to have full media attention, and so are waiting for a quiet day? If so, we will be waiting for a long time...

Isn't there a midday cut off for April Fools?

 

[ABB125]

Isn't there a midday cut off for April Fools?

I didn't realise this might be taken as an April fools joke. But it works as one!

 

[Kite159]

Isn't there a midday cut off for April Fools?

Or they have given the RMT advance notice so they can write up the press release at how the poor passengers of South East will be lining the pockets of *insert country here* passengers etc (although I suspect it will be an usual copy & paste jobbie from a previous franchise announcement with minor changes)

 

[43096]

Reported elsewhere that there are issues with pensions on all the new franchises currently out to tender, with DfT expecting the new operators to take on substantial financial risk for legacy pension fund issues. Unsurprisingly the bidders are all unhappy with this.

Another example of how utterly clueless DfT (and Government in general) are and shows why many senior public sector people are not employed by the private sector. Just naïve beyond belief to expect companies to take on unquantified substantial risks.

 

[Alteran Ancient]

I see that late last year, someone registered these domain names:

• londonsoutheastern.co.uk - Registered October 2018
  
• londonsoutheasternrailway.co.uk - Registered October 2018
• londonsoutheastern.com - Registered November 2018

They're all pointing to a blank holding page for now and the WHOIS information has been redacted for privacy. This could be nothing, but it's pretty hard (try impossible) to register domain names in secret - all you can do is make it harder to see who registered them. All you can see is that a UK company called "Iomart" are the hosting company connected to the domains. They're ISO-27001 certified, which suggests (but doesn't guarantee) that they can be used by public or government-owned entities.

This could just be a red herring, but who knows?

 

[hwl]

I see that late last year, someone registered these domain names:

• londonsoutheastern.co.uk - Registered October 2018
  
• londonsoutheasternrailway.co.uk - Registered October 2018
• londonsoutheastern.com - Registered November 2018

They're all pointing to a blank holding page for now and the WHOIS information has been redacted for privacy. This could be nothing, but it's pretty hard (try impossible) to register domain names in secret - all you can do is make it harder to see who registered them. All you can see is that a UK company called "Iomart" are the hosting company connected to the domains. They're ISO-27001 certified, which suggests (but doesn't guarantee) that they can be used by public or government-owned entities.

This could just be a red herring, but who knows?

Red Herring - Standard practice for ALL bidders but in the past it was easier to trace who had registered what. (See LNWR thread for the most recent)

However Iomart happen to be Stagecoach's preferred provide of such services...

 

[theageofthetra]

Reported elsewhere that there are issues with pensions on all the new franchises currently out to tender, with DfT expecting the new operators to take on substantial financial risk for legacy pension fund issues. Unsurprisingly the bidders are all unhappy with this.

Another example of how utterly clueless DfT (and Government in general) are and shows why many senior public sector people are not employed by the private sector. Just naïve beyond belief to expect companies to take on unquantified substantial risks.

Spot on. Both my parents were in the civil service for many years & said that the utter rubbish being brought in during the early nineties with zero private sector or relevant industry experience would be a disaster. They were glad to retire when they did.

 

[hwl]

Spot on. Both my parents were in the civil service for many years & said that the utter rubbish being brought in during the early nineties with zero private sector or relevant industry experience would be a disaster. They were glad to retire when they did.

Ditto, I'm from a similar background and heard the same said. All came from dubious consultancy advice, done quickly to a low spec!

Franchise Bidders aren't as stupid as DfT hopes or needs them to be.
If they want to export risk to the private sector they have to pay for it, it shouldn't be a surprise. Risk can cost more in the Private sector too.
Franchising is in a mess because DfT hasn't noticed that the total risk transfer has now got too large for the potential franchisees to operate as sensible viable businesses as franchises have grown with increasing passenger numbers /trains/ services run and DfT wanting to ditch more risks.

NAO and PAC starting to be on the case as regards fake risk transfer too.

 

[HH]

It may not be announced, but I hear the Direct Award Proposal is imminent. DfT appear to be hoping that news can be delayed until a Brexit deal is announced, so it will completely slip under the radar. Can it be done?

 

[Razza84]

It may not be announced, but I hear the Direct Award Proposal is imminent. DfT appear to be hoping that news can be delayed until a Brexit deal is announced, so it will completely slip under the radar. Can it be done?

Hello mate do you know how long rumours was 2 years. Also southeastern would have to register as a company again?

 

[ScotGG]

It may not be announced, but I hear the Direct Award Proposal is imminent. DfT appear to be hoping that news can be delayed until a Brexit deal is announced, so it will completely slip under the radar. Can it be done?

Trust me it won't be ignored and slip under the radar in Kent and se london. Pretty much every politician bar extreme loyalists and local media are very hostile to Grayling and the DfT. It will get a lot of coverage. And it will come up every time Tory Mayoral candidate talks about transport in that part of london.

 

[sciopero]

Murky has pointed out that passenger growth has gone up: https://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/2019/04/04/southeastern-trains-getting-ever-busier/

Certainly where I'm based (Lewisham) there are many new developments cropping up around the station that will increase passenger numbers. After all, you only buy right by a station if you're going to be using it on a daily basis.

Have the bids taken this properly into account? Or is this why they're (purportedly) non-compliant?

 

[hwl]

Murky has pointed out that passenger growth has gone up: https://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/2019/04/04/southeastern-trains-getting-ever-busier/

Certainly where I'm based (Lewisham) there are many new developments cropping up around the station that will increase passenger numbers. After all, you only buy right by a station if you're going to be using it on a daily basis.

Have the bids taken this properly into account? Or is this why they're (purportedly) non-compliant?

Long running saga - DfT has studiously been ignoring residential development and growth for years as they would have to provide even more extra capacity! They also ignored calls for it to be taken into account pre tender process starting. Hence bidders have to use DfT's assumptions for a quite a lot. Extra passengers are a potential hidden bonus for the winner if they system can cope.

In general the extra revenue for Lewisham growth will be disappointing given it is only a short journey to Zone 1 but very expensive to add extra capacity for.

 

[LLivery]

Using the Hayes and Penge East lines regularly it's clear usage is rocketing. Penge East services are totally different since the days of 2tph. For the Hayes, the trains are busy from south of Lower Sydenham, while Lwr Syd itself has far more people using it just a few years ago. The developments around the station on both the Lewisham and Bromley sides have definitely made a difference. It's only going to continue with another big building under construction and one development that Bromley keeps refusing (for how long I wonder). Catford Bridge is very busy, partly because of the Catford Green development and Ladywell is clearly busier. The Lewisham re-development is only half done and is evidently busier. They can't ignore the housing growth forever.

 

[ScotGG]

Isn't this another argument for TfL to takeover as they tend not to ignore this? And yes I know their funding is in big trouble but as a holistic, long term plan it makes sense.

"In general the extra revenue for Lewisham growth will be disappointing given it is only a short journey to Zone 1 but very expensive to add extra capacity for."

Imagine if TfL did that with tube station upgrades? It's madness.

 

[ScotGG]

Murky has pointed out that passenger growth has gone up: https://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.uk/2019/04/04/southeastern-trains-getting-ever-busier/

Certainly where I'm based (Lewisham) there are many new developments cropping up around the station that will increase passenger numbers. After all, you only buy right by a station if you're going to be using it on a daily basis.

Have the bids taken this properly into account? Or is this why they're (purportedly) non-compliant?

Since the story on that site about rising passengers another has gone up about yet more imminent flats in Greenwich. It's almost daily!

 

[hwl]

Isn't this another argument for TfL to takeover as they tend not to ignore this? And yes I know their funding is in big trouble but as a holistic, long term plan it makes sense.

"In general the extra revenue for Lewisham growth will be disappointing given it is only a short journey to Zone 1 but very expensive to add extra capacity for."

Imagine if TfL did that with tube station upgrades? It's madness.

It is quite possible that increasing passenger numbers at inner suburban stations (e.g. Lewisham) would require more subsidy overall give the low fare, where as growth at an outer suburban or Kent Station would reduce subsidy.

E.g. Dartford - London Terminals fares being 2.5x Lewisham - London Terminals fares but the cost of providing the service isn't 2.5x higher.

Hence DfT may need to ensure it looks like there won't be a subsidy increase.

TfL have a nightmare with LO as every trip requires an average 83p subsidy and I can't think they want SE metro making thinks worse.

The average SE trip requires £1.94 subsidy or £1.68 if you strip out the hidden HS1 bail out costs.

 

[ScotGG]

Yet SE passengers pay higher PAYG fares than tube, LO, DLR or even c2c and GWR passengers in London. At least they could get some investment.

 

[ScotGG]

On the issue of subsidy - that'd be much lower if they actually counted passengers correctly? Fare evasion is massive. How do TfL manage to achieve half the subsidy rate of Southeastern after taking out HS1? Shouldn't the long distance passengers make it lower?

 

[hwl]

On the issue of subsidy - that'd be much lower if they actually counted passengers correctly? Fare evasion is massive. How do TfL manage to achieve half the subsidy rate of Southeastern after taking out HS1? Shouldn't the long distance passengers make it lower?

Only if the "missing" paid!
Gating and Staffing the stations will add to cost side as well, but should be well worth it.

 

[theageofthetra]

Only if the "missing" paid!
Gating and Staffing the stations will add to cost side as well, but should be well worth it.

Other countries have fully gated & un staffed stations. There is a video call button to deal with any issues, works fine some Japanese stations for example.

 

[ScotGG]

The big developments keep rolling in. Just read on the Murky Depths site that work has started this week on a new skyscraper directly next to Lewisham station. Interestingly this one includes a new station entrance. It should rise very quickly as apparently it will be built using modular building methods with completion in summer 2020. DfT can't keep ignoring the capacity problem. https://www.fromthemurkydepths.co.u...ce-and-revised-tower-plan-begins-to-progress/

 

[hwl]

How do TfL manage to achieve half the subsidy rate of Southeastern after taking out HS1? Shouldn't the long distance passengers make it lower?

SE's is much lower on a % basis

 

[NorthKent1989]

Lewisham is a humongous missed opportunity.

Instead of building skyscrapers right near the tracks, they should have rebuilt the entire junctions around that area.

Lewisham now, even if was redeveloped, will still look very clustered, especially once the Bakerloo line arrives in 2030/2035

 

[Class 170101]

Lewisham now, even if was redeveloped, will still look very clustered, especially once the Bakerloo line arrives in 2030/2035

I'd be surprised if the Bakerloo will arrive by 2030/35. Even if Crossrail finishes in 2020 I would think Crossrail 2 would be next but I cannot see that arriving before 2030 (construction having started around 2022 and possibly later due to HS2 (construction resources used for HS2 1st). The Bakerloo I cannot see being started until 2035 at the earliest with opening a good 20/25 years away from now, so around 2040/45.

 

[ScotGG]

Given the DfT keeps failing the area TfL have to pick up the pieces and hope new walk through DLR stock will do the heavy lifting in the mid term from Lewisham. Of course that doesn't help all the other areas that don't have the DLR.

 

[matt_world2004]

Tfl are more aggressive than the DfT at getting developer funded transport enhancements for when flats and properties are built. I believe they aim for 100% of costs for infrastructure changes as a result of a development. And three years of any increased operational costs.