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Shapps wants ‘earlier extinction of diesel trains’: suggestions welcome on how to achieve this

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squizzler

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The facts don't really bear that out. Looking at UK new vehicle sales, the trends are stable with the decline in diesel sales being largely made up for by the increase in petrol, hybrids and EVs. Overall sales for this year are down by less than 3% and I suspect that general economic uncertainty (due to political events) has a lot to do with that.

Source: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
I think a 'best fit' line on the 16 years data you link to would slope down from left to right, readers can head on over and make up their own mind. Mostly over 400k units shifted per year till 2007 then down to 330k, a rally during the early/mid 'teens (govt pulled out the stops to achieve this - paying for so-called 'scrappage', implicit fuel subsidies from abolishing 'duty elevator', above all encouraging more unsustainable consumer debt) then fall back to 340k for the last two years.
 
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najaB

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I think a 'best fit' line on the 16 years data you link to would slope down from left to right, readers can head on over and make up their own mind. Mostly over 400k units shifted per year till 2007 then down to 330k, a rally during the early/mid 'teens (govt pulled out the stops to achieve this - paying for so-called 'scrappage', implicit fuel subsidies from abolishing 'duty elevator', above all encouraging more unsustainable consumer debt) then fall back to 340k for the last two years.
Oh, there's no doubt that overall sales of new cars are on a long-term downward trajectory - but that's as much due to cars lasting longer than they used to as much as it's due to low-polluting vehicles. My father was a proud member of Toyota's 100,000 mile club (which got you a special kit with some goodies and a sticker to put on the back of the car) as that was seen as a major achievement, these days a car with 100K miles can look almost new (and you have to have over 150K miles to even get the sticker).

Notable, however, is that the share price of major car manufacturers is largely stable over the same period (e.g. click the 5 year chart here: https://www.londonstockexchange.com...ry/company-summary/JP3633400001JPJPYSSX4.html).

Which strongly suggests that they aren't hurting - which I suggest is because they are simply selling fewer vehicles at higher margin.
 

squizzler

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Oh, there's no doubt that overall sales of new cars are on a long-term downward trajectory - but that's as much due to cars lasting longer than they used to as much as it's due to low-polluting vehicles.

<snip>

I suggest is because they are simply selling fewer vehicles at higher margin.
I understand that the reason this thread is discussing the car business is because the consensus seems to be that car makers sell huge numbers of cheap products with a short lifecycle. Whereas the rollingstock manufacturers produce expensive products with a long service life. Assuming your analysis of the situation is correct - cars costing more but lasting longer - it would seem to demolish that logic. The motor trade is becoming more like the rail industry and today's cars will be with us a long time. Maybe post Brexit Britain has the opportunity to be EU's Cuba, full of classic cars kept going out of necessity?

While you're correct on the scale of the issue, rail vehicles with their longer life are more likely to be modified, for instance adding batteries for off wire working, or bi-mode diesel genset packs to allow as much use as possible to be made of existing electrified mileage so there's no excuse for diverting all investment from rail towards road. Rail can play a cost effective part and should receive some appropriate proportion of any notional transportation decarbonisation budget. Even conventional DMUs might have their transmissions converted to electric which could allow bi-mode or battery-backed hybrid operation so urban emissions in particular can be minimised (that may be more about local particulatates and NOx rather than carbon). On the roads I suspect private car migration will take a very long time indeed to reach majority zero emissions, but commercial vehicles are possibly the most promising area in which to encourage early transition, especially the smaller ones that deliver in urban centres, and particularly because there are already measures available to incentivise this. Buses and taxis, also most prevalent in the same densest urban areas, are also a good target. Railways must play their part too in these areas, but modern solutions mean that doesn't necessarily require huge mileage of continuous electrification and then a big bang changeover to an entirely new totally electric fleet. Discontinuous techniques work and can provide earlier and more complete relief from the urban pollution problem.

When the motorcar was in the ascendancy, the car trade used to get innovations which could be rolled into the mass market for free from the motorsport and home mechanic scene. Nobody opens their bonnet anymore and ordinary cars are now fast enough so manufacturers have to innovate for themselves now. The boot is now on the other foot with the rail industry getting innovations from its customers for free with Roscos like Porterbrook debugging things like hydrogen trains and bi-modes technology that can go into the main product lines.

The cost of driving is fuel. Everything else was accounted for in the “I want/need a car” decision.

This raises an intresting point: how will the psychology of the consumer change if battery cars became the norm and the cost of recharging becomes negligible? The car itself will cost a great deal more, so presumably the 'I want / need a car' deliberations will now be much more fraught.
 
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Bald Rick

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I do not share your optimism that the motor trade will be able to switch everybody to battery cars, for two reasons:
  • Where will the resources come from? There are probably not enough lithium ions to satisfy demand for all these battery cars. Even if there were, the national grid would probably not cope. Even if it did, the limited range of such machines means you can say goodbye to the ultra-high mileage sales rep in red braces tailgating everybody on the motorway (so a silver lining of sorts!).

Resources: there’s plenty of lithium, it just needs digging out of the ground.

National Grid: it will cope, they have been planning on it for some time. This has been discussed repeatedly on other threads before.

Limited Range: Every Tesla model comes with an option for between 300-400miles and it is standard on some models. The new VW ID, standard model will come with a range of 250miles with an option of 340. Other manufacturers launching their electric ranges (Ford for example) are following suit.

There are very, very few car drivers who are frequently doing that sort of mileage in one go without stopping.

Might we have had much greater OLE coverage now if Margaret Thatcher hadn't detested the railways so much?

This is not a political point.... but I’m pretty sure that the Thatcher Government authorised the delivery of more miles of electrification than any other government in the last 50 years. ECML, Anglia east and west, Carstairs - Edinburgh, North Berwick, Ayrshire coast, various bits in NSE, Birmingham Cross city line. I’m not sure that the initial BedPan electrification wasn’t one of the first transport decisions by her Government in 1979. If it wasn’t, they certainly had the opportunity to stop it, which they didn’t.

Oh, and in D.C. land Bournemouth to Weymouth, Portsmouth - Southampton / Eastleigh, Hastings, Esst Grinstead.
 

HSTEd

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This is not a political point.... but I’m pretty sure that the Thatcher Government authorised the delivery of more miles of electrification than any other government in the last 50 years.
There weren't that many governments before her within the 50-year timespan though!

And her ideological heirs have been in power ever since.
 

Bletchleyite

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This raises an intresting point: how will the psychology of the consumer change if battery cars became the norm and the cost of recharging becomes negligible? The car itself will cost a great deal more, so presumably the 'I want / need a car' deliberations will now be much more fraught.

Road pricing might also influence the view of whether to drive or not. I think most people just go and fill the car up when it's empty, they don't put the correct amount in for a journey, so they don't experience the cost of that journey directly, merely "oh, we put about a hundred quid in a month" or something. I've long thought that the best way to get people to economise on energy use at home would be to mandate everyone to go onto a prepayment meter. A similar thing may apply to driving if you more readily see the cost in front of you - potentially taximeter style.
 

Bletchleyite

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I've no personal stake in this area of the country but, on principle, money freed up by curtailing provision of public transport should be spent on improving other public transport.

In this case it could probably easily subsidise an hourly electric Trawscymru bus service rather than a train roughly every three hours. I don't want this to happen - but if the railway is still running on dirty diesel when every single bus is electric (which I think is a distinct possibility) it's yet another case not to bother fixing it up the next time it washes away.
 

Bletchleyite

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It may not be M25 style congestion but the road between Glanconwy roundabout and Llanrwst can be very slow moving at times.

It's also the case that the road is sometimes impassible due either to flooding in the lower reaches or snow on Bwlch Goginan / Crimea Pass.

Does the road ever flood without the railway also flooding? I think the railway is below, or at best level with, the road all the way down, isn't it?

Snow on the Pass could be an issue - is it often bad enough to close it?
 

AndrewE

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... I've long thought that the best way to get people to economise on energy use at home would be to mandate everyone to go onto a prepayment meter. A similar thing may apply to driving if you more readily see the cost in front of you - potentially taximeter style.
I have also come to the conclusion that only something like a mandatory trip Taximeter (that can't be turned off) in every car would be the only way to get people to recognise the real cost of their driving. I can't see it happening though!
If we really are going to achieve a step-change decrease in energy use (because just driving electric cars will not do anything like what is needed) then pretty some serious sticks - and the carrot of massive improvements in public transport - are essential.
 

Bletchleyite

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I have also come to the conclusion that only something like a mandatory trip Taximeter (that can't be turned off) in every car would be the only way to get people to recognise the real cost of their driving

A bit like a smart meter, perhaps? It could also show when one is driving economically.
 

The Ham

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I have also come to the conclusion that only something like a mandatory trip Taximeter (that can't be turned off) in every car would be the only way to get people to recognise the real cost of their driving. I can't see it happening though!
If we really are going to achieve a step-change decrease in energy use (because just driving electric cars will not do anything like what is needed) then pretty some serious sticks - and the carrot of massive improvements in public transport - are essential.

Which comes back to the point that I was making that few fully understand the true cost of what their car costs them and they could be better if using public transport.

It is however one of the reasons why younger people are less likely to drive; as costs for things like insurance is quite a barrier, as are actually having driving lessons in the first place.

When there's debate about cost of cars and £350 is the general accepted cost of insurance (as most people having the discussion have been driving for a number of years) however they fail to think about the years of paying more than this (with £1,000 being more than likely, with a quick search in an area with low crime rates, for a Teacher who had just passed their test, driving a cheap 5 year old Ford Ka,doing 8,000 miles a year and with no add one like breakdown cover; the cheapest was £1,100).

At £1,100 doing 8,000 miles just the insurance cost of motoring is 14p per mile

Buying a 2012 Ford Ka (7 years old) would cost about £2,500 to £3,000 (there are a few cheaper, but not by a lot and there are some more expensive but that's a reasonable compromise), if you then run that for 7 years that's £360 to £425 a year.

Just on those two items your travel costs are £1,500 so even before you add on fuel the cost of a season ticket which gets you to a comparable ~8,000 mile range (10 to 15 miles each way a day for work) is likely to be closer to £1,000. That's easily £500 a year for other travel costs and you've still not allowed for the fuel for the car, nor any other costs such as VED, breakdown cover servicing, other repairs or MOT costs.

You can then see why that, even with the lure of cheaper insurance costs 5 to 10 years down the line (but with it still being broadly more expensive to drive), that people would be willing to think "you know what, why bother with owning a car?". Especially if they can pass their test and then still have the ability to hire cars or be in a car club (subject to assure restrictions) for those occasions where a car is actually needed (which in reality is fairly rare, and certainly rarer than most would care to admit).

Being able to access a wider range of jobs (so that you can earn more) is often cited as a reason to own a car. Yes, I can see that, however if you get offered a new job you're generally going to have a month in which to buy a car (which is fairly achievable if you're not overly fussy about what you want). However for many (especially if you are already commuting by bus/rail) there's likely to be something else which is suitable within a reasonable journey time.

However for every £100 more in travel costs you've got to earn at least £130 more to ensure that you are getting paid more. Therefore if you take a job which pays you £1,000 a year more but your travel costs are £800 a year more then you are in fact taking a pay cut.

Also given all the talk about more working from home, compressed hours and other flexible working which is becoming more the norm then the big up front costs of car ownership starts to be even less attractive. If you work at home one day a week and compress your working week into 4 days as well, then your travel costs are going to be lower. However with a car mostly the saving is just fuel (which will then be partly offset by having to heat your own home) whilst with a train (depending on how much of a discount season tickets give you) there's scope for the savings to be more noticeable. However even if it's not, chances are that you'll have some use for your season ticket for other journeys that you make.
 

squizzler

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I have also come to the conclusion that only something like a mandatory trip Taximeter (that can't be turned off) in every car would be the only way to get people to recognise the real cost of their driving. I can't see it happening though!
If we really are going to achieve a step-change decrease in energy use (because just driving electric cars will not do anything like what is needed) then pretty some serious sticks - and the carrot of massive improvements in public transport - are essential.
I think that one small difference in how we think about motoring could have been if the odometer on the dashboard was actually an engine hours counter. So when selling or buying a car its prior life would be determined by hours, not miles, 'on the clock'. People would be mindful of how much time they have spent in their car if they see their life ticking away, which I think would be more likely to make people consider such things as long commutes or driving in congestion than seeing miles travelled, with its implication of 'going places'.
 

Bletchleyite

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Which comes back to the point that I was making that few fully understand the true cost of what their car costs them and they could be better if using public transport.

I doubt the vast majority of people care about whether a car is cheaper or more expensive - it's so much more convenient that if it's affordable (which it pretty universally is) they'll have one. Whereas if you go to say Manchester the local public transport is invariably poor.
 

Indigo Soup

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True, but given the track record of implementing big computer systems in the UK I can't really believe that road pricing could be made to work properly anyway.
Road pricing really doesn't need a big computer system. It can be done by hand: miles on the meter at this year's MoT, subtract the miles on the meter at last year's MoT, multiply by your per-mile rate. Please send the cheque to Mr P Hammond, Downing Street, within 30 days.

You don't get the full benefits of a massively complex system based on actual levels of traffic on the chosen route, but still has some of the 'pay to use' characteristics of fuel duty with electric vehicles. Some refinement would of course be needed, since I don't imagine the average private motorist would look forward to a £400ish tax bill alongside their MoT. But in the grand scheme of things it would still be a fairly simple system.
 

Bletchleyite

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Road pricing really doesn't need a big computer system. It can be done by hand: miles on the meter at this year's MoT, subtract the miles on the meter at last year's MoT, multiply by your per-mile rate. Please send the cheque to Mr P Hammond, Downing Street, within 30 days.

You don't get the full benefits of a massively complex system based on actual levels of traffic on the chosen route, but still has some of the 'pay to use' characteristics of fuel duty with electric vehicles. Some refinement would of course be needed, since I don't imagine the average private motorist would look forward to a £400ish tax bill alongside their MoT. But in the grand scheme of things it would still be a fairly simple system.

You could easily enough have a system, like the electricity and gas suppliers did pre-smart-meter, where you can submit a reading and pay up to date any time you like to spread the cost. It's an IT system but it's a fairly easy one, and it gives you a rough approximation of how fuel duty works. The MoT would provide the formal check.

Or you could (even simpler) have a system where you estimate your mileage for the year and pay per month divided by 12 and settle up at the end, a bit like how service charge accounts work in blocks of flats.

The advantage of going more complex, though, is the ability to price different places differently or do peak/off peak or whatever.

Another advantage of doing it electronically might be that you could charge per day, or per journey (key on to key off). With people increasingly using banks that give immediate feedback of spending (like Monzo, but the traditional banks' apps are catching up) this gives you a real feel for what you're paying (unlike just chucking in £100 of fuel a month and paying tax by direct debit monthly or annually) and might influence choices more.
 

AndrewE

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Road pricing really doesn't need a big computer system. It can be done by hand: miles on the meter at this year's MoT, subtract the miles on the meter at last year's MoT, multiply by your per-mile rate. Please send the cheque to Mr P Hammond, Downing Street, within 30 days.

You don't get the full benefits of a massively complex system based on actual levels of traffic on the chosen route, but still has some of the 'pay to use' characteristics of fuel duty with electric vehicles. Some refinement would of course be needed, since I don't imagine the average private motorist would look forward to a £400ish tax bill alongside their MoT. But in the grand scheme of things it would still be a fairly simple system.
The point about taximeters or (even better) ones showing congestion- or pollution-related road pricing is that it is current, and brings home to people the cost of each particular journey. I am afraid that doing it annually (like the cost of insurance) will just be seen as a tax to punish motorists. In a way it is, of course, but it would not have any link to individual journeys and would not have the behaviour-changing effect that is needed.
 

Indigo Soup

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I am afraid that doing it annually (like the cost of insurance) will just be seen as a tax to punish motorists.
There are a number of reasons to have a road pricing scheme. A straightforward mileage-based system not requiring any new equipment would only capture some of them, but would have the great advantage of being cheap to implement. You can then leverage the now-existing system to bring in refinements, exactly as is being done with smart meters for energy.

Now, I'd be clever about it, and roll up such a scheme with a revision of fuel duty rates, so that the average motorist pays the same total amount - effectively turning fuel duty into an emissions tax, harmonised for on-road and off-road uses. But that's straying quite a long way from railways, and beginning to stray from transport.
 

Bletchleyite

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Now, I'd be clever about it, and roll up such a scheme with a revision of fuel duty rates, so that the average motorist pays the same total amount - effectively turning fuel duty into an emissions tax

Fuel duty already roughly is an emissions (at the point of use) tax, as cars that use more fuel tend to have more emissions.

The trouble with it is electric cars - once everyone switches a huge tax take will be gone and will need to be replaced, either with road pricing or similar or with a MASSIVE hike in income tax.
 

Indigo Soup

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Fuel duty already roughly is an emissions (at the point of use) tax, as cars that use more fuel tend to have more emissions.
It is, except that it also sort-of accounts for a lot of other things which are unique to cars. That is, in effect, why the fuel duty charged to road fuel is so much higher than that charged for all other fuel. If it were a pure emissions tax, it wouldn't be charged at 57.95p/litre for fuel burnt in a road vehicle, and 10.7p/litre for fuel not burnt in a road vehicle. To a first approximation, the two will generate pretty similar levels of pollution, so should be penalised similarly.

Electric cars don't put anything out of the exhaust, so shouldn't be taxed on emissions they don't produce, but do take up space on the road, damage the road surface, occasionally get driven into things, and so forth - which they certainly shouldn't get to do for free. The difference of 47.25p, or 56.7p once VAT has been added, represents the cost that we assign to motoring except that which comes out of the exhaust, and which could be better extracted through road pricing.
 

AndrewE

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Fuel duty already roughly is an emissions (at the point of use) tax, as cars that use more fuel tend to have more emissions.

The trouble with it is electric cars - once everyone switches a huge tax take will be gone and will need to be replaced, either with road pricing or similar or with a MASSIVE hike in income tax.
The problem with fuel duty (in this context) is that it isn't directly related to the current journey. You just fill up, maybe grumble about the cost, forget it and move on. I do, anyway, but I only fill the tank once every 4 to 6 weeks.
The other problem to my mind is that VAT is charged on top of the fuel cost and duty, so cars being run on "businesses" (I have several friends who do this) can get all the VAT back.
 

AndrewE

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That sounds to me like wilful tax fraud, which should be pursued and prosecuted.
It is absolutely straight and legal, the only difficulty is that you have to have a minimum turnover before HMRC will let you join in. If you have ever been employed as a contractor or have set up a small business to make money out of a hobby you are on your way...
 

Meerkat

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A mileage based car tax will be massively open to fraud (both from those fiddling the mileage and those just not registering the car)
It will also be politically suicidal - just look how unpopular fuel tax rises are. People in rural areas in particular will go mental, and it will be seen as the ‘ordinary people’ being downtrodden by the metropolitan elite with their great public transport and Ubers.
The ability to own and drive a car is so deeply culturally rooted as a right/freedom to travel that that it is almost untouchable.
 

Bletchleyite

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A mileage based car tax will be massively open to fraud (both from those fiddling the mileage and those just not registering the car)
It will also be politically suicidal - just look how unpopular fuel tax rises are. People in rural areas in particular will go mental, and it will be seen as the ‘ordinary people’ being downtrodden by the metropolitan elite with their great public transport and Ubers.
The ability to own and drive a car is so deeply culturally rooted as a right/freedom to travel that that it is almost untouchable.

An advantage of electronic road pricing is that you can make it very cheap in such areas where there is little or no other sensible alternative to driving, but make it very expensive indeed in large cities where there are plenty of options, even varying by time of day e.g. at 3am when there's no public transport make it fairly cheap, but heading into town for 9am from a suburb where there's a perfectly decent train service you could make it cost a fortune, perhaps even as much as £5/mile or more. Those with disabilities precluding the use of public transport could also be given a heavy discount or even free.
 

HSTEd

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An advantage of electronic road pricing is that you can make it very cheap in such areas where there is little or no other sensible alternative to driving, but make it very expensive indeed in large cities where there are plenty of options, even varying by time of day e.g. at 3am when there's no public transport make it fairly cheap, but heading into town for 9am from a suburb where there's a perfectly decent train service you could make it cost a fortune, perhaps even as much as £5/mile or more. Those with disabilities precluding the use of public transport could also be given a heavy discount or even free.

And how much will this system cost to administer and operate.

An MOT based charge is much simpler to enforce and will cost less as a result.

It also does not have the huge civil liberties implications that building a database of where all people driving at all times does.
 
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Meerkat

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Personally I don’t think electronic road pricing is unfeasible, for technology scale, cost, and civil rights reasons.
Didn’t the Germans have an absolute mare getting a fairly limited road pricing system for lorries set up?
 

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And how much will this system cost to administer and operate.
The costs will be in setup - getting cars fitted with trackers won't be cheap. That said, insurance companies seem to be doing a decent job of getting black boxes fitted by offering discounts for safe driving. Perhaps the government could take a leaf from their book - slightly above normal increases in VED for non-fitted vehicles vs slight discounts for ones so equipped?
 

AM9

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The costs will be in setup - getting cars fitted with trackers won't be cheap. That said, insurance companies seem to be doing a decent job of getting black boxes fitted by offering discounts for safe driving. Perhaps the government could take a leaf from their book - slightly above normal increases in VED for non-fitted vehicles vs slight discounts for ones so equipped?
Then there would be low mileage users joining and high mileage drivers paying the slightly increased VED.
 

Grumpy Git

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An advantage of electronic road pricing is that you can make it very cheap in such areas where there is little or no other sensible alternative to driving, but make it very expensive indeed in large cities where there are plenty of options, even varying by time of day e.g. at 3am when there's no public transport make it fairly cheap, but heading into town for 9am from a suburb where there's a perfectly decent train service you could make it cost a fortune, perhaps even as much as £5/mile or more. Those with disabilities precluding the use of public transport could also be given a heavy discount or even free.

Good idea (until yo realise it is not going to get the Prols to vote Tory)!
 

najaB

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Then there would be low mileage users joining and high mileage drivers paying the slightly increased VED.
But remember, it's also about the quality of miles driven. Many low-mileage drivers are making the most polluting types of journeys.
 
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