Personally i think that the mayors of Liv and Man will be given joint powers over a reduced North western area, so their area would end at Preston, Blackburn, Rochdale and Stalybridge in the north of the area and with everything south of these areas like Crewe, Chester, and as far as Chinley on the southern part staying with them. I can see it being called something like TFML (Transport for Manchester & Liverpool) although the two will argue over whose name should be first. All other western areas like Blackpool, Lancaster, Carlise etc would go to the operator of last resort along with the east after 6 months the gov will tell everyone how they have turned things around and are currently in the process of negotiations for a new franchisee under the new system that will be brought in after the current reports have been made public. The east side will then become a beacon for the new franchise model and can expect very heavy government support and cash to ensure it is a success.
As i commented months ago when the TfGM prospectus for rail was published, this is already in the bag for someone. Rightly or wrongly, certain people in Manchester get to find out everything that is happening long before anyone else.
I also said, though, that it would be completely inappropriate for rail services to be run from/for Manchester, or control even shared equally with them.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cb60dBQXIAAZUkk?format=jpg&name=small
For decades, the Liverpool region has produced the lion's share of passengers and revenue.
If control of this goes to ill-qualified Manchester, fares will rise in Liverpool and profits from Liverpool will be used to pay for train service improvements in Manchester. Probably while services in Liverpool themselves become less focused.
Immediately this forum jumped on the notion of this north western set up being run from Manchester, as if that's just natural.
Yet it is Merseytravel that have the experience of rail concession letting, govern the area with by far the highest level of train use in the north, and have the track record of working with neighbours to mutual interest (as opposed to own).
If nothing else, the Merseyrail City Lines should be ripped out of Northern and devolved to Liverpool. Although I would argue they should be entrusted to run it all.