Coronavirus.

[Meerkat]

Did you not read the numbers?
Can you not imagine the collective trauma of hundreds of thousands of people dying in battlefield triage conditions?

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Sorry but that’s your own fault for not leaving early enough. It is not Coronavirus related and could have happened any normal day.


The vulnerable need to take steps to protect themselves too, and the less-vulnerable need to avoid contact with the vulnerable and those who have symptoms. But the whole country cannot just be allowed to grind to a halt through everyone isolating. It’s not tenable and unless we are sure the virus will go away (and I don’t believe that has been accepted) then all isolation is doing is the problem down the line to the point when people do go out again.

What needs to happen is that the fit and those in low risk categories need allowed to get on with their lives which will ensure the country remains economically viable. While doing that they need take sensible precautions especially with hygiene and social distancing where appropriate (especially in terms of contact with vulnerable groups), and isolate if they get symptoms.

The nonsense suggesting those who are well should not go out, should not go into a pub for a drink, should not get onto a bus or a train, is going to damage far more people’s lives in the long term.

Nice to read a sane and sensible post amid all the hysteria.

 

[Ianno87]

Sor
The nonsense suggesting those who are well should not go out, should not go into a pub for a drink, should not get onto a bus or a train, is going to damage far more people’s lives in the long term.

...but kill more people in the short term.

It staggers me that people *still* don't get this; it is not about *you*, it is about others.

 

[Bantamzen]

...but kill more people in the short term.

It staggers me that people *still* don't get this; it is not about *you*, it is about others.

No, its about all of us.

 

[Antman]

The nonsense suggesting those who are well should not go out, should not go into a pub for a drink, should not get onto a bus or a train, is going to damage far more people’s lives in the long term.

Exactly, sitting in doors for any length of time is likely to cause long term problems both mentally and physically. I don't mean to sound flippant about the virus, take sensible precautions but keep some perspective.

 

[Skymonster]

...but kill more people in the short term.

It staggers me that people *still* don't get this; it is not about *you*, it is about others.

I know it’s not about me - it’s not just about those who are sick or at risk either.

Where do you draw the line? Normal flu kills people - should we all isolate through the fly season? This thing does NOT kill the vast majority of people.

The situation we are in is about the whole country and especially the long term damage, misery and deaths that the cessation of all economic activity will create for millions in the future.

 

[nidave]

I know it’s not about me - it’s not just about those who are sick or at risk either.

Where do you draw the line? Normal flu kills people - should we all isolate through the fly season? This thing does NOT kill the vast majority of people.

The situation we are in is about the whole country and especially the long term damage, misery and deaths that the cessation of all economic activity will create for millions in the future.

You just dont get it do you. There is no cure, there is no long term understanding of the impact on peoples health.
People are dying and we until there is a way to vaccinate people against it more people will not only die from this but will spread it to those who wont survive the encounter.

In 2-3 years when we are all getting a combined flu / corona shot then you have a point.
Please stop comparing it to flu - its not the same thing and is very trump like. Its nothing like flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause.

 

[Mogster]

You just dont get it do you. There is no cure, there is no long term understanding of the impact on peoples health.
People are dying and we until there is a way to vaccinate people against it more people will not only die from this but will spread it to those who wont survive the encounter.

In 2-3 years when we are all getting a combined flu / corona shot then you have a point.
Please stop comparing it to flu - its not the same thing and is very trump like. Its nothing like flu.

As of yesterday Wigan has 4 recorded cases. Most of the confirmed cases are in London.

Everyone can’t stay at home for years, so yes, the way forward is about understanding and treatment and hoping this burns it’s self out or dies down in N hemisphere summer. An effective vaccine is probably years away, there’s no SARS vaccine as yet don’t forget and that was doing the rounds in 2003 iirc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As of yesterday Wigan has 4 recorded cases

4 recorded cases. Who knows how many other ones there are.

This is where the antibody test will come in (it will be able to tell not if you have it but if you have ever had it), but it's a couple of weeks off unfortunately. Eventually it'll be possible to do it as a DIY home test but it'll be a while before there are enough to send one to everybody!

Everyone can’t stay at home for years, so yes, the way forward is about understanding and treatment and hoping this burns it’s self out or dies down in N hemisphere summer. An effective vaccine is probably years away, there’s no SARS vaccine as yet don’t forget and that was doing the rounds in 2003 iirc.

18 months likely for a vaccine. SARS is different, while it's more deadly it doesn't spread as easily (these two facts may be connected - a virus is not very viable if it kills its host). Swine flu was also different, it was less deadly.

 

[AM9]

... Where do you draw the line? Normal flu kills people - should we all isolate through the fly season? This thing does NOT kill the vast majority of people. ...

Nor does asbestos, drink driving, heroin, ebola,
so let's change health and safety laws so that tower blocks can be insulated with fireproof asbestos, pubs can profit from drivers drinking, drug traffickers can keep the bling and luxury yatch industry going, and we can save all that money wasted on containing the ebola outbreaks where it occurs. Then you will be happy that the economy can create wealth for whoever is left standing in the future. May I presume that you are not in one of the 'at-risk' groups?

 

[Mogster]

4 recorded cases. Who knows how many other ones there are.

This is where the antibody test will come in (it will be able to tell not if you have it but if you have ever had it), but it's a couple of weeks off unfortunately. Eventually it'll be possible to do it as a DIY home test but it'll be a while before there are enough to send one to everybody!



18 months likely for a vaccine. SARS is different, while it's more deadly it doesn't spread as easily (these two facts may be connected - a virus is not very viable if it kills its host). Swine flu was also different, it was less deadly.

Yes, 4 CoV2 cases that require hospital treatment probably. Those are are the important ones that could overwhelm the healthcare system. Everyone else can stay at home recovering and building useful immunity.

Swine flu was less scary as we already had effective antivirals and already had vaccines directed at its friends. It did run riot, PHE estimated there were well over a million cases, when they stopped counting, and over 100 deaths. It also disproportionally affected young people without underlying health conditions.

I do agree we need more testing and tracing capacity going forward but we need accurate tests, tests with 50% false negatives (or other issues) as the Chinese government rolled out would not be helpful.

 

[Bletchleyite]

It is to be fair looking like there may be effective antivirals as off-label use of existing drugs, so there's a chance they may become available sooner than a vaccine (because we already know they are safe for humans, we just need to know if they work). That will help massively.

 

[mmh]

I suspect there's a big overlap between the doom foretellers for Coronavirus and the climate alarmist types. People who enjoy apocalyptic visions. Unfortunately they appear to be winning - they've primed us to a point where enough people's first instinct is fear and we end up in a situation like this. Madness.

 

[Skymonster]

You just dont get it do you.

Yes I totally get it. Some people have died. Some more people are going to die. A massive majority are not going to die, even if they do not self-isolate. We need to do what is best for the continued long term viability of the country, not adopt short term policies that end up doing more long term harm than good. I think the problem is that you don’t get it - you are being dragged along by politicians who are more bothered about their own short term interests than the long term viability of the entire nation. This is not going to go away. When those who isolate re-emerge they will not be immune. The country cannot isolate indefinitely. There are sensible precautions that can and should be taken but the level of isolation being suggested by some is merely moving the problem to the right.

 

[Mogster]

I suspect there's a big overlap between the doom foretellers for Coronavirus and the climate alarmist types. People who enjoy apocalyptic visions. Unfortunately they appear to be winning - they've primed us to a point where enough people's first instinct is fear and we end up in a situation like this. Madness.

There are too many that seem to be enjoying this, in an “I told you so” sort of way, and seem to delight in feeding the collective hysteria.

 

[Ianno87]

Yes I totally get it. Some people have died. Some more people are going to die. A massive majority are not going to die, even if they do not self-isolate. We need to do what is best for the continued long term viability of the country, not adopt short term policies that end up doing more long term harm than good. I think the problem is that you don’t get it - you are being dragged along by politicians who are more bothered about their own short term interests than the long term viability of the entire nation. This is not going to go away. When those who isolate re-emerge they will not be immune. The country cannot isolate indefinitely. There are sensible precautions that can and should be taken but the level of isolation being suggested by some is merely moving the problem to the right.

By isolating now it will help keep the rate of infections at a manageable level, within the capacity of the NHS. For a virus not even the experts have a proper understanding of yet.

 

[SHD]

I suspect there's a big overlap between the doom foretellers for Coronavirus and the climate alarmist types. People who enjoy apocalyptic visions. Unfortunately they appear to be winning - they've primed us to a point where enough people's first instinct is fear and we end up in a situation like this. Madness.

Italy recorded almost 500 deaths due to the covid-19 yesterday.
The average number of deaths in Italy over one year is ~600,000. That puts it at ~2,000 daily, right?

Now put these two numbers next to each other and think. Think. Think.
(Of course part of these ~500 deceased people would probably have died anyway in the short term. But that does not invalidate the comparison at all)
Now think further. Most of these deaths occurred in one region. And more specifically in certain middle sized towns. Imagine the impact on the communities. Several hundred burials a day. In isolation. Imagine the desolation.
And before you start uttering ineffable twaddle about Italy, its government and its citizens, this is one of the richest regions of Europe.


But hey sure, go to the pub and laugh about our « apocalyptic visions ». Cheers to you.

 

[Ianno87]

Stagecoach in Cambridge now asking ENCTS pass holders not to touch their passes on the machine. Nil-value tickets being issued instead.

 

[Bantamzen]

I suspect there's a big overlap between the doom foretellers for Coronavirus and the climate alarmist types. People who enjoy apocalyptic visions. Unfortunately they appear to be winning - they've primed us to a point where enough people's first instinct is fear and we end up in a situation like this. Madness.

Once upon a time and a political forum, I got into a debate about something I called "Grief Tourism". This was basically something I'd observed in times where people completely unconnected to a tragedy felt somehow compelled to get involved, and focus the pain onto them too. Some people wanted to believe this was just empathy, but my more cynical nature suggested to me that perhaps they were really just seeking some form of validation. In more recent times more & more people, particularly but not exclusively on social media seem to almost relish in playing the victim, even when they are not.

Of course the "climate emergency"* gave such types something new to wring their hands about, we have to do something now, yesterday, tomorrow or we are all doomed. Funnily enough all the same sorts of people I see on social media who yesterday were climate warriors, are today demanding instant lock-down and as much chemical protection as they can muster, but seem to have forgotten about their environmental causes.

Maybe its just the cynic in me, but I still cannot for the life of me see why this new virus, compared to all the other new viruses is so much more apocalyptic that it requires a indefinite lock-down, and sod the rest. China have got a handle on it quite quickly for a country of nearly 1.5 billion, South Korea & Japan have taken a much more pragmatic approach as far as I can tell, and they seem to be getting past it, but here this is up there with the Black Plague. And before someone accuses me of being heartless, I'm not, I've already covered my thoughts on the various threads on this. But this is not the first new virus to come along, nor will it be the last. We can't simply batten down the hatches every time something nasty comes our way, our society needs to be functional throughout. And that means people going out and spending in a capitalist society. These lock-downs won't last very long in any country, no matter how much some people seem to want to will it.

Finally one more thought for the vulnerable. What if we did lock everyone up until it disappeared & that took months, resulting in a collapse of the economy. Who would support the vulnerable then?

 

[mmh]

Italy recorded almost 500 deaths due to the covid-19 yesterday.
The average number of deaths in Italy over one year is ~600,000. That puts it at ~2,000 daily, right?

Now put these two numbers next to each other and think. Think. Think.
(Of course part of these ~500 deceased people would probably have died anyway in the short term. But that does not invalidate the comparison at all)
Now think further. Most of these deaths occurred in one region. And more specifically in certain middle sized towns. Imagine the impact on the communities. Several hundred burials a day. In isolation. Imagine the desolation.
And before you start uttering ineffable twaddle about Italy, its government and its citizens, this is one of the richest regions of Europe.


But hey sure, go to the pub and laugh about our « apocalyptic visions ». Cheers to you.

Thanks, I fully intend to. "Think. Think. Think." Yes, patronising people is always the best way to persuade them.

 

[SHD]

Thanks, I fully intend to. "Think. Think. Think." Yes, patronising people is always the best way to persuade them.

Oh come on, you or Bantamzen (see post above) are several orders of magnitude more patronising than I am. Your messages display a stiff-upper-lip attitude over « panicking » masses while governments and healthcare professionals deal with a massive crisis.

 

[Bantamzen]

Fair points there, though I think it needs uptalking to get some people to take it seriously.

But I think the general point that needs making is:-
1. You are probably not going to die of it.
2. But if you go out and spread it, you may kill others. We'd really rather you didn't just so you can have a pint.

On number 2, I would happily wager that there will be plenty of 70+ going out and having a pint, BoJo's dad for one. In fact of my family & friends group, the people most concerned seem to be the in 30-40 & perfectly healthy bracket, the older generation seem to be of the opinion that its just another one of those things, and that life is a bit to precious to be hiding from it. But they will respect others by making sure they take all reasonable steps short of months of isolation (which is not a reasonable step in my opinion) to ensure that they keep up with their hygiene routines, and will stop going out at the first sign of feeling a bit poorly. And in truth that's all any of us can do. Like I've said previously, viruses are ancient & very patient. If it can't spread this month, or this season or this year, it will wait until it can.

 

[Mogster]

Italy recorded almost 500 deaths due to the covid-19 yesterday.
The average number of deaths in Italy over one year is ~600,000. That puts it at ~2,000 daily, right?

Now put these two numbers next to each other and think. Think. Think.
(Of course part of these ~500 deceased people would probably have died anyway in the short term. But that does not invalidate the comparison at all)
Now think further. Most of these deaths occurred in one region. And more specifically in certain middle sized towns. Imagine the impact on the communities. Several hundred burials a day. In isolation. Imagine the desolation.
And before you start uttering ineffable twaddle about Italy, its government and its citizens, this is one of the richest regions of Europe.


But hey sure, go to the pub and laugh about our « apocalyptic visions ». Cheers to you.

99% of the people dying in Italy have underlying health conditions. Around 50% had 3 underlying conditions. Average age of death was 80.

It’s very interesting what’s happened in Italy, I’m sure it will be studied in depth in future. It seems to be a combination of relatively low routine demand caused by an ageing but healthy population cared for heavily by relatives. Then there’s a reliance on small local healthcare centres that are easily overwhelmed.

 

[mmh]

Oh come on, you or Bantzamen (see post above) are several orders of magnitude more patronising than I am.

Bantamzen's post is thoughtful and measured. Nothing patronising about it at all. If you're going to criticise someone it's only polite to get their name correct, incidentally.

 

[SHD]

Bantamzen's post is thoughtful and measured. Nothing patronising about it at all. If you're going to criticise someone it's only polite to get their name correct, incidentally.

Thank you for this thorough review of my typos. I will correct it immediately.
Enjoy your beer.

 

[Meerkat]

If it can't spread this month, or this season or this year, it will wait until it can.

The later that is the more we will be able to understand it, possibly vaccinate against it, or at least find treatments that save more victims and reduce the strain on ICU

 

[Bantamzen]

Bantamzen's post is thoughtful and measured. Nothing patronising about it at all. If you're going to criticise someone it's only polite to get their name correct, incidentally.

Thank you, its nice to know that I'm not ploughing a lone furrow here.

I am not attempting to be patronising to most (well until I have to go shopping tomorrow, then any panic buyers will get a broadside ), but there has to be some balance here. Yes this is a nasty virus, and yes there are people in our communities than are more at risk from it. I firmly believe that the worldwide reaction to it has been excessive, especially in countries like ours where we can readily identify those people, and should be proactive in enabling them to help themselves & be prioritised if they become ill. Its a big ask, it would be expensive, and it would need the understand from the rest of society, but it would work. Effectively locking people up in their own homes will have a detrimental effect not only on the at risk, but everyone. And as seems to be emerging in Italy may actually be as, or even more likely to help spread the disease.

Of course there are those people who seem to be rather enjoying the drama, for those people I will openly admit to being patronising, because they are fuelling fear & anxiety at a time when we need calm, thoughtful approaches.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Once upon a time and a political forum, I got into a debate about something I called "Grief Tourism". This was basically something I'd observed in times where people completely unconnected to a tragedy felt somehow compelled to get involved, and focus the pain onto them too. Some people wanted to believe this was just empathy, but my more cynical nature suggested to me that perhaps they were really just seeking some form of validation. In more recent times more & more people, particularly but not exclusively on social media seem to almost relish in playing the victim, even when they are not.

Of course the "climate emergency"* gave such types something new to wring their hands about, we have to do something now, yesterday, tomorrow or we are all doomed. Funnily enough all the same sorts of people I see on social media who yesterday were climate warriors, are today demanding instant lock-down and as much chemical protection as they can muster, but seem to have forgotten about their environmental causes.

Maybe its just the cynic in me, but I still cannot for the life of me see why this new virus, compared to all the other new viruses is so much more apocalyptic that it requires a indefinite lock-down, and sod the rest. China have got a handle on it quite quickly for a country of nearly 1.5 billion, South Korea & Japan have taken a much more pragmatic approach as far as I can tell, and they seem to be getting past it, but here this is up there with the Black Plague. And before someone accuses me of being heartless, I'm not, I've already covered my thoughts on the various threads on this. But this is not the first new virus to come along, nor will it be the last. We can't simply batten down the hatches every time something nasty comes our way, our society needs to be functional throughout. And that means people going out and spending in a capitalist society. These lock-downs won't last very long in any country, no matter how much some people seem to want to will it.

Finally one more thought for the vulnerable. What if we did lock everyone up until it disappeared & that took months, resulting in a collapse of the economy. Who would support the vulnerable then?

Very well said. I think the big problem here is that the media is as ever presenting the worst case scenario as fact when in reality no-one knows what's going to happen. Yes, the virus could kill thousands of people and last for months but for all we know it could be over in a couple of weeks and, by May we'll all be sitting around feeling a bit lost because all the sporting events, festivals and concerts we were planning on going to got cancelled prematurely!

Add to that the vast number of people sat a home right now wasting their time getting increasingly and irrationally panicky becuase of all the scaremongering on social media and it's not surprising that some posters, even on a relatively sensible forum like this one, are wildly exaggerating the situation.

To anyone worried about the virus, my advice would be, switch off your computer, limit watching the news to 10 minutes a day and, if possible, get out into the outdoors, enjoy a nice walk and chill out!

 

[Mag_seven]

Folks I've detected that things are starting to get a bit personal here. I appreciate that we are in a very worrying and fast moving situation with this virus so it is vital we all keep a cool head, stick to the facts and do not get personal.

If you see any post that concerns you do not respond to it but report it using the report function.

Thanks

 

[Bantamzen]

The later that is the more we will be able to understand it, possibly vaccinate against it, or at least find treatments that save more victims and reduce the strain on ICU

But the point is that it is not about stopping it, simply slowing it enough until we can afford it. Or in other words its an economic decision. Of course we could also commit enough money straight away to being proactive and getting to the most vulnerable, prioritising testing them & giving them the support so they have the best chance of not contracting it, thus saving lives that way. Which is my point all along. We still don't know how to control the common cold, a cousin of covid-19, so we really can't sit on our hands and hope for a solution.