Changing travel habits after lockdown

[Pat1105]

With the rumoured news that train services are to be restored to a more normal service, it must mean that buses are to be doing the same thing too in order to get people to work. I can’t help but think that the travelling habits of the public are likely to change for the worse, as I think there will be a rise in private motor vehicle usage because people may be apprehensive about using public transport. Consequently, this could have a negative effect on all forms of public transport in the long term, such as route and funding cuts and possibly a lack of investment by operators due to the decreasing passenger numbers.

 

[PeterC]

To use a bus when you have a car available is usually because of something making car use unattractive rather than bus use attractive. People may abandon the journey altogether (eg within a large city with expensive parking or congestion charge) rather than switch to the car. Also for a year or two concerned parents will probably be running "dad's taxi" rather more than they used to.

 

[carlberry]

With the rumoured news that train services are to be restored to a more normal service, it must mean that buses are to be doing the same thing too in order to get people to work. I can’t help but think that the travelling habits of the public are likely to change for the worse, as I think there will be a rise in private motor vehicle usage because people may be apprehensive about using public transport. Consequently, this could have a negative effect on all forms of public transport in the long term, such as route and funding cuts and possibly a lack of investment by operators due to the decreasing passenger numbers.

There will be two other, negative, effects as things return. One is social distancing so bus operators will have to operate each vehicle with a considerably reduced capacity which, at peak either means leaving people behind or operating more vehicles. Plus, in the longer term, it's expected that 'the new normal' is going to involve a lot more people working from home which means a, permanent, drop in the number of passengers.

 

[CN04NRJ]

There will be two other, negative, effects as things return. One is social distancing so bus operators will have to operate each vehicle with a considerably reduced capacity which, at peak either means leaving people behind or operating more vehicles. Plus, in the longer term, it's expected that 'the new normal' is going to involve a lot more people working from home which means a, permanent, drop in the number of passengers.

How many people that used the bus pre lockdown will be able to work from home? And will it really be a permanent change?

'New Normal' for the medium term, perhaps..

 

[carlberry]

How many people that used the bus pre lockdown will be able to work from home? And will it really be a permanent change?

'New Normal' for the medium term, perhaps..

It's difficult to say how many will be bus related however it will be permanent. A lot of companies/staff that have avoided the idea of home working now have direct experience of it. Some wont like it and it'll disrupt some too much however it will happen more and it'll now be a major tool for local/national government to deal with climate change/pollution/congestion. It's not as much a game changer for the bus industry as it would be for London bound trains for instance and it could even be seen as benifitial overall as it should reduce peak congestion and peak flows on some routes both of which could reduce PVRs, however the loss of peak passengers might effect the viability of some routes.

 

[DaveHarries]

The Bristol ecowarriors will be disappointed with me. At present I can use the train to conveniently get to work provided I am not starting too late in the day. However the car rental firm I currently work for may move its depot in conjunction with the possible diesel ban which would only just cover where I work. While I will downgrade (as I see it) from diesel to petrol - the fuel economy of the former is better than that of the latter on my car - whether I continue to use the train (when able to do so) will depend on where the depot I work from relocates to.

Either way I will be keeping the car for when I go away for weekends: one place I go to sometimes - Lee Abbey, nr. Lynton - would not be fun with, from where I live, two changes of train, f/b a ride on a bus that runs 5 times a day, f/b a walk of a mile or two, with luggage.

Dave

 

[Pat1105]

How many people that used the bus pre lockdown will be able to work from home? And will it really be a permanent change?

'New Normal' for the medium term, perhaps..

From what I see, the majority of people who use the bus to get to work tend to be supermarket/retail workers etc. Obviously they can’t work from home, so they’ll still be using the buses after lockdown I’d imagine.

 

[CN04NRJ]

From what I see, the majority of people who use the bus to get to work tend to be supermarket/retail workers etc. Obviously they can’t work from home, so they’ll still be using the buses after lockdown I’d imagine.

My thoughts too. Also, how many of those working from home actually want to stay working at home? Not that many, i'd imagine. For alot of people I know the novelty soon wore off...

 

[overthewater]

Its going to get very interesting on the school buses, Lets be fair here at the best of times the kids dont care and move seats all the time...

 

[Volvodart]

In Scotland it was suggested that pupils may be going in alternate days, which would help.

 

[Robertj21a]

My thoughts too. Also, how many of those working from home actually want to stay working at home? Not that many, i'd imagine. For alot of people I know the novelty soon wore off...

Loads of London commuters (and their managers) very keen to remain working from home.

 

[Surreyman]

Loads of London commuters (and their managers) very keen to remain working from home.

Echo that, my other half normally commutes 4 days a week, she is very worried that they will lift the 'lockdown' too soon and we will get a 'second wave' also everyone seems to love working at home, not least her boss.
i can see that over the next few years an awful lot of offices are not going to have the leases renewed.
Most companies will still need some (small) offices - meeting rooms, IT hardware centres etc.
Bad news for property companies with a lot of office property.

 

[Pat1105]

Some frequency increases from 10th May
6 increased to every 20 minutes, 55/94 increased to every 20 minutes combining to every 10 minutes between City Centre and Fox and Goose, 14 doubled to every 15 minutes, 28 increased to every 20 minutes, etc.
https://nxbus.co.uk/west-midlands/i...ronavirus-timetable-update-from-10th-may-2020

Good to see some progress towards restoring a normal ish timetable. Chelmsley relies heavily on its buses, as they don’t really have a station (unless you travel to International or Coleshill) so the government must have some sort of plan to return people to work.

 

[freetoview33]

I think short term, buses will have to go back to normal because of lower capacity and social distancing. Medium term (in London) I think there will be cuts to routes that mirror rail/tube. Outside of London Medium term there might be a struggle but I think the government might end up having to step in (Or at least threaten it).Long Term I think things will return to near normality, the economy will pick up, there will be something to do with privacy that will make people realise that it is not always wise to work at home, on laptops!

 

[Pat1105]

I think short term, buses will have to go back to normal because of lower capacity and social distancing. Medium term (in London) I think there will be cuts to routes that mirror rail/tube. Outside of London Medium term there might be a struggle but I think the government might end up having to step in (Or at least threaten it).Long Term I think things will return to near normality, the economy will pick up, there will be something to do with privacy that will make people realise that it is not always wise to work at home, on laptops!

I fear that there will be many communities cut off because of possible cuts to services as a result of lower passenger use. One of my local routes (run by an independent operator) may suffer because of this, as the route isn’t supported financially by the local authorities who don’t ever seem to want to support local bus services, instead cutting them to save money.

 

[freetoview33]

I fear that there will be many communities cut off because of possible cuts to services as a result of lower passenger use. One of my local routes (run by an independent operator) may suffer because of this, as the route isn’t supported financially by the local authorities who don’t ever seem to want to support local bus services, instead cutting them to save money.

But it may get to a stage where government (national) is forced to step in

 

[Pat1105]

But it may get to a stage where government (national) is forced to step in

I think you could be right here, and that’s not just with bus travel. I can see BA being bailed out in the not too distant future too.

 

[devonexpress]

With the rumoured news that train services are to be restored to a more normal service, it must mean that buses are to be doing the same thing too in order to get people to work. I can’t help but think that the travelling habits of the public are likely to change for the worse, as I think there will be a rise in private motor vehicle usage because people may be apprehensive about using public transport. Consequently, this could have a negative effect on all forms of public transport in the long term, such as route and funding cuts and possibly a lack of investment by operators due to the decreasing passenger numbers.

To be honest I think the whole economy will shift to more people working from home rather than going into offices, overall a lot of the call centres have done it quiet successfully and it could probably save them a fortune on big buildings. Rail & Aviation will pick up again, but I think urban bus travel will struggle for some time, rural bus travel won't be so much of a worry.

 

[GusB]

I fear that there will be many communities cut off because of possible cuts to services as a result of lower passenger use. One of my local routes (run by an independent operator) may suffer because of this, as the route isn’t supported financially by the local authorities who don’t ever seem to want to support local bus services, instead cutting them to save money.

This is also what I fear. My local bus route has been cut to two-hourly, and even before lockdown began certain journeys between the peaks were carrying only a handful of passengers. With evening and Sunday services being cut a few years ago and more people having to rely on cars, it doesn't really look good.

To be honest I think the whole economy will shift to more people working from home rather than going into offices, overall a lot of the call centres have done it quiet successfully and it could probably save them a fortune on big buildings. Rail & Aviation will pick up again, but I think urban bus travel will struggle for some time, rural bus travel won't be so much of a worry.

There are quite a few organisations who have outsourced some, if not the majority, of their call centre operations to home-workers for some years now. I'm was one of them for a while and when my health improves I'll probably go back to it. When I worked in one of the bricks-and-mortar call centres my biggest weekly outlay (after accomodation) was transport costs and I had to take two buses to get there. It was a no-brainer for me, and a no-brainer for the companies who contracted us in; the way we booked work time (half-hour slots) meant that if there was a sudden spike in demand there was a relatively quick way to get bums on seats without anyone actually having to commit to doing a full shift.

 

[Pat1105]

This is also what I fear. My local bus route has been cut to two-hourly, and even before lockdown began certain journeys between the peaks were carrying only a handful of passengers. With evening and Sunday services being cut a few years ago and more people having to rely on cars, it doesn't really look good.

To be fair, the Elgin network has been in decline for years now. Stagecoach just don't seem to be bothered anymore, running clapped out enviros that should’ve been replaced years ago. And the prospect of subsidy from Moray Council... forget it! But hey, that’s the Bluebird for you, just left to be forgotten whilst everywhere else gets brand new shiny buses. I think that’s why the Elgin network is declining, no one really uses it as everyone in the town loathes Stagecoach and can’t rely on them.

 

[overthewater]

To be fair, the Elgin network has been in decline for years now. Stagecoach just don't seem to be bothered anymore, running clapped out enviros that should’ve been replaced years ago. And the prospect of subsidy from Moray Council... forget it! But hey, that’s the Bluebird for you, just left to be forgotten whilst everywhere else gets brand new shiny buses. I think that’s why the Elgin network is declining, no one really uses it as everyone in the town loathes Stagecoach and can’t rely on them.

I doubt that is the reason, everyone else isn't getting shinny bus stock, and even in the places that is getting brand new stock, the numbers are not great either. Most places are heading the same way Lothian numbers are also down but there peeing out brand new shiny buses.

Cuts are coming, and were not going to see a great picture by xmas, I think there isn't the money for coach companies to all get thought this, and Government cant pay them all just to do nothing for many many months. School contracts might save a few but I doubt it.

I think we really do need to ask about Lothian Country, im sorry to say in such a climate could you really justify having competition? This would apply to other area where companies compete.....

 

[Pat1105]

I doubt that is the reason, everyone else isn't getting shinny bus stock, and even in the places that is getting brand new stock, the numbers are not great either. Most places are heading the same way Lothian numbers are also down but there peeing out brand new shiny buses.

Lothian receive a lot of money from Edinburgh City Council, hence why they always have new buses. Stagecoach in Elgin aren’t subsidised, which is why the network has been in decline as Stagecoach don’t make money on them.

Why should they have been replaced years ago? Some of the NX 42XX B7TL that were in use until the 25th March must be a decade older than any enviro? And even today I saw 1799 and 4779 on the Washwood Heath Road services and they're nearly 13 years old now. If it does the job of getting people from A to B, nothing wrong with it in my opinion.

NX have an excellent standard of maintenance (personal judgement) wether Stagecoach...not really. The enviros would screech loudly when accelerating and rattle like mad (typical I suppose for an ADL product). The interior had seen better days as the windows were scratched and seats threadbare. They're early examples of the E200 (2007/8 models). The last time I travelled on one (last summer), the gearbox was stuck in first and wouldn’t change up. It had to be swapped for one of the 35 deckers. Stagecoach replaced their entire fleet of Panther coaches for the 10 2 or 3 years ago (which didn’t need replacing in my opinion). They should have replaced the town buses instead. That said, I believe there has been a change of engineering management who have managed to turn things around in terms of the amount of spare vehicles needed in the event of breakdowns. However, you still see on the StagecoachNScot twitter the amount of breakdowns they experience each day. I understand what you’re saying about the bus doing the job and I agree with you, however the Stagecoach enviros don’t exactly portray using the bus as an alternative to the car in an attractive way, and would potentially put new passengers off. Buses don’t need to have all the bells and whistles in order to attract people, but they do need to be reliable and have some level of comfort at least.

 

[CN04NRJ]

Lothian receive a lot of money from Edinburgh City Council, hence why they always have new buses. Stagecoach in Elgin aren’t subsidised, which is why the network has been in decline as Stagecoach don’t make money on them.

NX have an excellent standard of maintenance (personal judgement) wether Stagecoach...not really. The enviros would screech loudly when accelerating and rattle like mad (typical I suppose for an ADL product). The interior had seen better days as the windows were scratched and seats threadbare. They're early examples of the E200 (2007/8 models). The last time I travelled on one (last summer), the gearbox was stuck in first and wouldn’t change up. It had to be swapped for one of the 35 deckers. Stagecoach replaced their entire fleet of Panther coaches for the 10 2 or 3 years ago (which didn’t need replacing in my opinion). They should have replaced the town buses instead. That said, I believe there has been a change of engineering management who have managed to turn things around in terms of the amount of spare vehicles needed in the event of breakdowns. However, you still see on the StagecoachNScot twitter the amount of breakdowns they experience each day. I understand what you’re saying about the bus doing the job and I agree with you, however the Stagecoach enviros don’t exactly portray using the bus as an alternative to the car in an attractive way, and would potentially put new passengers off. Buses don’t need to have all the bells and whistles in order to attract people, but they do need to be reliable and have some level of comfort at least.

Actually I think you'll find Lothian and any other municipal company don't receive any direct subsidies from their respective owners. It would be unlawful as by definition they are arms length companies and have to fund themselves.

 

[Pat1105]

Actually I think you'll find Lothian and any other municipal company don't receive any direct subsidies from their respective owners. It would be unlawful as by definition they are arms length companies and have to fund themselves.

Oh right, my sources must have misinformed me.

 

[overthewater]

Oh right, my sources must have misinformed me.

In a Bigger TWIST... Lothian PAYS the council money in dividends

To be fair Lothian does get paid to operate a few routes like No20, 63, 38 etc ( its losing 20 and 63 in june possible to First)

 

[Stan Drews]

Oh right, my sources must have misinformed me.

Yup, you definitely need to change your sources!!

 

[scotrail158713]

I think we really do need to ask about Lothian Country, im sorry to say in such a climate could you really justify having competition? This would apply to other area where companies compete.....

I’d completely agree. In the world we’ll initially see post-lockdown it seems a poor use of resources. If passenger numbers increase though, then by all means go back to it again.

 

[nlogax]

I'll be taking travel opportunities on planes and trains as often as I did before, but I have a feeling there'll be fewer services to choose from, and higher prices too (certainly for flights).

 

[WM Bus]

Good to see some progress towards restoring a normal ish timetable. Chelmsley relies heavily on its buses, as they don’t really have a station (unless you travel to International or Coleshill) so the government must have some sort of plan to return people to work.

Further increases in services in Birmingham as they begin to return to normal levels. Though still running a reduced service.
55 and 94 are increasing again to every 15 minutes - combining to every 7 minutes from the 24th May.
11A/11C are increasing to every 10 minutes.
X20/X21/X22 increasing to every 30 minutes combining to every 10 minutes.
6 increased to every 10 minutes.
25 will also be reintroduced.

There are others as well and can be seen on the nxbus site.

Local Bus Services

Explore local bus services from National Express West Midlands, for travel throughout Birmingham, Wolverhampton and beyond.

nxbus.co.uk

 

[Mikey C]

This is a disaster for public transport, as not only will people feel safer in their own cars, they'll also be concerned about infecting vulnerable people using public transport (and bus drivers)