The enthusiasm for 3rd rail extensions being bolstered here by various mitigation of the considerable health and safety issues seems to befogetting one major cost driver: that of inspection and maintenance. Areas that spring to mind include:
The additional cost of debris, leaves and occasionally snow and ice on any live 3rd rail shielding hardware
The requirement to ensure the integrity of fences and barriers designed to prevent trespasser access to the live track, - note that the railway has been severely punished for failing to secure damaged fencing around sidings when a child trespassing received life-changing injuries following an electric shock.
The maintenance of ever more complex signalling and power supply integration through EMC issues
So labour and material costs associated with those are added to the perennial big number extra costs, e.g. higher power distribution costs, greater power losses, reduced performance of traction and the ever present climatic interruptions of snow and ice.
The other consideration is that those costs are perennial so for an expected life of 50 years, the 3rd rail solution has all of those addirtional running costs. The higher costs that might occur when 25kV schemes are implemented is a once-off cost, so the balance might be considerably different if all of the true costs are included, rather than just thinking about the high cost of replacing a few low bridges a bit earlier than might have been necessary otherwise.