I do find it a bit suspicious how Sturgeon’s interpretation of the evidence has led her to the conclusion that she needs to be more cautious than England.
Deaths in Scotland today: 5
Deaths in England today: 186
Given that the English population is ≈ 10 times the Scottish Population (55,200,000 vs 5,400,000) one would expect that, if there was reason to believe Scotland needed to take a more cautious approach, the Scottish deaths would be > English deaths/10
This would mean that the Scottish deaths would need to be around 19+ to warrant a more cautious approach based on these figures. In fact the deaths were 5, around 38 times less than the English deaths. This suggests the epidemic is not nearly as prominent in Scotland as in England and if anything, Scotland should be coming out of lockdown
faster than England.
Let’s take the figures from yesterday to compare:
Scottish Deaths: 12
English Deaths: 133
As was the case today, the Scottish deaths are < the English deaths/10. In fact these were around 12 times higher. Again suggesting the epidemic was not quite as prominent in Scotland and that Scotland should be coming out of the crisis more quickly.
Finally let’s compare Wednesdays figures:
Scottish Deaths: 7
English Deaths: 229
Once again, the Scottish deaths < the English deaths/10. In fact these were around 32 times higher. This suggests once again that the epidemic is much less prominent in Scotland and that a faster exit to lockdown would be entirely justified compared to England.
Since we seem to be obsessed on the all important “R” rate, let’s compare estimates.
Estimate in Scotland: 0.6 - 0.8
Estimate in England: 0.8 - 1.0
This suggests to me that Scotland should be able to go ahead of England and ease more restrictions as the reproduction rate is considerably lower, meaning they have much more scope to ease more restrictions without risking an exponential growth in cases than England.
Conclusions:
Scotland should, from these statistics, be able to exit lockdown much faster and more safely than England (the opposite is happening and Scotland is miles behind).
Scotland has a lower “R” number (The opposite is happening, Sturgeon consistently reminds us
“We have reason to believe the “R” number may be considerably higher in Scotland than the rest of the UK”).
So can someone explain the discrepancy between the evidence I’ve presented and what’s actually happening, or is it simply Nicola loudly and proudly extending two fingers across to Mr. Johnson in a bid to be the “better leader” and advance her independence campaign and increase public opinion of the SNP?
Sources:
Death Figures:
“R” Number Estimates:
Scotland:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-4/
England:
The latest reproduction number (R) and growth rate of coronavirus (COVID-19).
www.gov.uk