Is it time to relax the 2m social distancing guideline? (WHO guidance is 1m)

[yorksrob]

Not wishing to get involved in the debate at the moment, but in all honesty, I think you may be making a wrong assumption about the results of the poll. The options are four variations on the Government reducing the distance form its current 2m to something less and just one for the extreme opposite, i.e. retaining it indefinitely, (in other words until a vaccine is widely available or close to zero cases*). I suspect that quite a few members would see such a loaded set of options leading to very few who feel that the something between reducing it soon (without any relevant epidemial conditions being met) and an implied 'batten down the hatches forever' option at the bottom of the list. The fact is that the first four options do not acknowledge the possibility of a second peak.
* neither of those are likely to be in 2020, - indeed, the may not happen next year or the year after, - depending on an interpretation of zero cases.

The poll gave two options for reducing, immediately and later on. I don't see the options as being particularly loaded one way or the other, short of trying to categorise every possible type of medical breakthrough that might occur.

 

[C J Snarzell]

The two metre social distancing is starting to grate on many people - I actually saw quite an angry scene in my town this morning whereby a queue of people were stood in a long line outside a bank observing the two metre rule but were caught in the heavy down pour of rain which lasted about half an hour.

A bloke at the front of the queue was remonstrating with the bank staff member stood at the door and the angry customer was trying to assist an elderly customer, also in the queue, who was forced to stand outside in the rain with no umbrella.

The bank employee was admanent that no one else was coming into the bank as they were at their maximum capacity of customers inside.

This type of scenario is why I believe the two metre rule has run it's course. Many people are simply getting fed up now of standing in adverse weather just to do their weekly shop/errands.

There are people who would argue that maybe you should only do your shop while the weather is dry, but I turned out for a walk this morning thinking it wouldn't rain and I got drenched two miles away from home.

It is fair to say that we have been fortunate that the lockdown began in March and we have had the Spring weather on our side but I am beginning to think that this situation cannot really continue for weeks to come.

In the last fortnight we have seen several 'Black Lives' protests across the country & in Greater Manchester two illegal raves took place last weekend, involving thousands of young people (idiots should I say).

If these mass gatherings do not impact on the increase of infections/deaths by the end of June, Boris Johnson surely has enough evidence to justify reducing social distancing to at least one metre.

CJ

 

[northernchris]

The two metre social distancing is starting to grate on many people - I actually saw quite an angry scene in my town this morning whereby a queue of people were stood in a long line outside a bank observing the two metre rule but were caught in the heavy down pour of rain which lasted about half an hour.

A bloke at the front of the queue was remonstrating with the bank staff member stood at the door and the angry customer was trying to assist an elderly customer, also in the queue, who was forced to stand outside in the rain with no umbrella.

The bank employee was admanent that no one else was coming into the bank as they were at their maximum capacity of customers inside.

This type of scenario is why I believe the two metre rule has run it's course. Many people are simply getting fed up now of standing in adverse weather just to do their weekly shop/errands.

There are people who would argue that maybe you should only do your shop while the weather is dry, but I turned out for a walk this morning thinking it wouldn't rain and I got drenched two miles away from home.

It is fair to say that we have been fortunate that the lockdown began in March and we have had the Spring weather on our side but I am beginning to think that this situation cannot really continue for weeks to come.

In the last fortnight we have seen several 'Black Lives' protests across the country & in Greater Manchester two illegal raves took place last weekend, involving thousands of young people (idiots should I say).

If these mass gatherings do not impact on the increase of infections/deaths by the end of June, Boris Johnson surely has enough evidence to justify reducing social distancing to at least one metre.

CJ

I went to Argos earlier and next door to them is T K Maxx. The queue was massive, and they certainly weren't social distancing - the woman from TK Maxx was even getting people to move closer as the queue was starting to spread across the car park. The other issue was as many were in groups they were standing side by side so it was difficult to pass. You're definitely right about the weather, come November when the Christmas shopping season is upon us I highly doubt people will be prepared to patiently queue for each shop in the cold and no doubt wet weather. If the high street hasn't been killed off by then that could well be the final straw

The Black Lives Matter protests are interesting. I don't agree with them at this time, but they are a useful experiment to see what the impact is on mass outdoor gatherings

 

[scotrail158713]

In the last fortnight we have seen several 'Black Lives' protests across the country & in Greater Manchester two illegal raves took place last weekend, involving thousands of young people (idiots should I say).

If these mass gatherings do not impact on the increase of infections/deaths by the end of June, Boris Johnson surely has enough evidence to justify reducing social distancing to at least one metre.

This is the interesting part. I’m currently taking a close look at numbers each day and, as you say, if there’s no sharp increase then that’s the final nail in the coffin for 2m/social distancing.

 

[AM9]

The poll gave two options for reducing, immediately and later on. I don't see the options as being particularly loaded one way or the other, short of trying to categorise every possible type of medical breakthrough that might occur.

None of them based on actual practical control of infection rates though, as I have pointed out elsewhere in conversation.

 

[The Ham]

The two metre social distancing is starting to grate on many people - I actually saw quite an angry scene in my town this morning whereby a queue of people were stood in a long line outside a bank observing the two metre rule but were caught in the heavy down pour of rain which lasted about half an hour.

A bloke at the front of the queue was remonstrating with the bank staff member stood at the door and the angry customer was trying to assist an elderly customer, also in the queue, who was forced to stand outside in the rain with no umbrella.

The bank employee was admanent that no one else was coming into the bank as they were at their maximum capacity of customers inside.

This type of scenario is why I believe the two metre rule has run it's course. Many people are simply getting fed up now of standing in adverse weather just to do their weekly shop/errands.

There are people who would argue that maybe you should only do your shop while the weather is dry, but I turned out for a walk this morning thinking it wouldn't rain and I got drenched two miles away from home.

It is fair to say that we have been fortunate that the lockdown began in March and we have had the Spring weather on our side but I am beginning to think that this situation cannot really continue for weeks to come.

In the last fortnight we have seen several 'Black Lives' protests across the country & in Greater Manchester two illegal raves took place last weekend, involving thousands of young people (idiots should I say).

If these mass gatherings do not impact on the increase of infections/deaths by the end of June, Boris Johnson surely has enough evidence to justify reducing social distancing to at least one metre.

CJ

With regards to the bank, chances are within a week the queues will be a lot smaller, same with other shops.

I used to visit a bank weekly and often there were fairly few within the bank (enough that social distancing would have meant maybe 1 or 2 outside at busier tonnes).

However Monday/Friday appeared to be busier than other days as people couldn't do as much at the weekend so a backlog formed/people preparing for not being able to access the bank. That's what we're seeing now with people doing their in branch bank tasks within a few days rather than over a couple of months.

The number of cases which results in death from those raves is likely to be low, even those which catch it from someone who was at the rave. This is because most, if not all, are under 40 and so unless they have major underlying health issues will probably be OK.

Having said that, clearly not the smartest thing to be doing.

The big change yesterday was that there's now a proven drug which reduces deaths on ventilators by a 1/3 and for those on oxygen by 1/5. This is more significant because it's old (read cheap, as it's out of patent) so can be mad produced by many different companies.

That's going to mean that the stay for people in hospital is likely to be shorter and with better outcomes. Whilst it's not a vaccine or a full treatment it's good news.

However on the other side of the coin, the news of further lockdowns in China shows that there's still a need to have some caution.

 

[Jamesrob637]

I went to Argos earlier and next door to them is T K Maxx. The queue was massive, and they certainly weren't social distancing - the woman from TK Maxx was even getting people to move closer as the queue was starting to spread across the car park. The other issue was as many were in groups they were standing side by side so it was difficult to pass. You're definitely right about the weather, come November when the Christmas shopping season is upon us I highly doubt people will be prepared to patiently queue for each shop in the cold and no doubt wet weather. If the high street hasn't been killed off by then that could well be the final straw

The Black Lives Matter protests are interesting. I don't agree with them at this time, but they are a useful experiment to see what the impact is on mass outdoor gatherings

I like the "don't agree at this time" rather than simply "don't agree"

Would George Floyd have wanted this? I don't think so.

That's maybe a bit off topic. Back on topic, I'm starting to do 1 metre more and more. I think I'll keep doing 1 metre long after COVID-19 where possible, but if it's not possible, such as in places of eating and drinking, or public transport, so be it. I'm not the biggest fan of massive crowds but can tolerate them.

 

[Jamesrob637]

This is the interesting part. I’m currently taking a close look at numbers each day and, as you say, if there’s no sharp increase then that’s the final nail in the coffin for 2m/social distancing.

VE Day and the late-May bank holiday, both of which produced fine weather and led to gatherings of sorts, did not produce a significant increase. It's been nearly six weeks since VE Day and just over three weeks since the late-May bank. Ok the Tuesday figure especially is still higher than where most of us would like it to be, but even it has decreased 20 to 30 per cent week on week.

 

[MattA7]

I was always thought the reason for 2metres was because some people (like me for one) have difficulty estimating how big that is So even if the person’s estimate was a little off they are still in the safe zone.

I personally think 6 feet as that is much easier to estimate and I have noticed a lot of guidelines are now saying 6ft presumably for that reason. It generally much easier to estimate in imperial than metric (and I’m not even old)

 

[The Ham]

Things are getting critical now. It has to be relaxed from the end of this month at the very latest.

The consequences will be dire if this is not done.

Nearly 80% of forum members who voted in the poll agree that this guideline should either have already been relaxed already, or be relaxed at the end of this month.

Those who vote against it are quite possibly isolating anyway or don't understand the importance of the economy and livelihoods.

If suggest that the poll would probably provide a different result depending on when it was asked.

1st April many would have voted against opening too soon, and 1st July was quite some time away so as long as everyone sticks to the rules we'll be long past 100 deaths a day.

1st June many more would have voted for opening sooner, but more may have thought that 1st July was too close for their liking with there still being over 200 deaths being reported yesterday.

As such chances are you'll get people changing where their vote.

I do however agree that we're likely to see the capability to be (say) 1m away from others being released in more and more places as time passes.

Just on the 20% fall in the economy seen in April, we could see a lot of that come back fairly quickly as a lot of people have delayed making purchases because they want to see what's happening to their job. Whilst we're unlikely to see spending above where it should be (i.e. all that spending happening over future months) the actual GDP figures are unlikely to stay that low for very long.

As an example no day trips happened, so people are likely to have that money to spend to do that day trip at another time. However none of the coffees that people buy are likely to be brought in future months.

However for many who have been put on furlough or are working from home they've made big savings on their travel costs and so (whilst they won't spend it on petrol/trains) they could have extra money that they could spend on other things.

Given that petrol stations have been decreasing in number over time and have a limited lifespan (how many do we really need post 2035 when no be cars will need hydrocarbons for fuel?) it's probably no major loss to the economy if a few close a few years before they otherwise would have.

Overall, there'll be a reduction in the distance required in more places. However there's likely to be no announcement that everything is fine at 1m.

However I'd expect that we'll see a lot lower deaths next winter from flu as people are better at hand washing, better at keeping their distance and a number of those who would have died due to flu in the winter of 2020/21 having already died due to Covid-19.

 

[AM9]

It generally much easier to estimate in imperial than metric (and I’m not even old)

That may be the case for you but the UK has been metric since the '60s so anyone taught imperial without metric would be getting on, i.e. 65+.

 

[yorkie]

If suggest that the poll would probably provide a different result depending on when it was asked...

True but the poll is set so that people can amend their vote, so if anyone wishes to do so, feel free.

1st April many would have voted against opening too soon, and 1st July was quite some time away so as long as everyone sticks to the rules we'll be long past 100 deaths a day.

1st June many more would have voted for opening sooner, but more may have thought that 1st July was too close for their liking with there still being over 200 deaths being reported yesterday.

I don't want to get into a debate about the death rate but it's key to note that not many of those will have actually occurred yesterday, and the daily average reported deaths is a lot lower than that.

As such chances are you'll get people changing where their vote.

People are free to do so; if anything I think people are realising more and more that it's not viable and will lead to huge job losses and deprivation for the UK if not abolished soon, so I think you will see more people wanting rid of it sooner rather than later, and not the other way round!

However there's likely to be no announcement that everything is fine at 1m.

It's not a matter of that, it's about keeping things in proportion. It's also not true that everything is fine at 2m if someone coughs or sneezes aimed towards you then you'd need to be a lot further than 2m away to have guarantees.

We can't live like this for much longer; the dangers of continuing the 2m guideline for much longer are absolutely huge. We need to look at the bigger picture!

. It generally much easier to estimate in imperial than metric (and I’m not even old)

I disagree with this, but if you want to discuss it further, it warrants a new thread.

 

[birchesgreen]

I was always thought the reason for 2metres was because some people (like me for one) have difficulty estimating how big that is So even if the person’s estimate was a little off they are still in the safe zone.

I personally think 6 feet as that is much easier to estimate and I have noticed a lot of guidelines are now saying 6ft presumably for that reason. It generally much easier to estimate in imperial than metric (and I’m not even old)

Not really anyone 50 or under (at least) should be comfortable with metric. I certainly can visualise 2m better than 6ft (i'm 48 btw)

 

[Peter Mugridge]

However I'd expect that we'll see a lot lower deaths next winter from flu as people are better at hand washing, better at keeping their distance and a number of those who would have died due to flu in the winter of 2020/21 having already died due to Covid-19.

As we have had two consecutive winters with no flu outbreak, would this not indicate that the covid virus has taken more people than it would have if there had been the normal annual flu outbreaks in the past two winters?

 

[jfollows]

I personally think 6 feet as that is much easier to estimate and I have noticed a lot of guidelines are now saying 6ft presumably for that reason. It generally much easier to estimate in imperial than metric (and I’m not even old)

It clearly confuses the BBC and other media, which insist on telling us that the US "6 feet" is a closer distance than our "2 metres" because 6 feet equates to 1.8 metres. I can't find the graphic for now, but these "comparisons" with excessive precision annoy me!

EDIT: to attach annoying graphic. But I agree, I don't know why 1.4 metres is used in South Korea!

 

[philosopher]

It clearly confuses the BBC and other media, which insist on telling us that the US "6 feet" is a closer distance than our "2 metres" because 6 feet equates to 1.8 metres. I can't find the graphic for now, but these "comparisons" with excessive precision annoy me!

South Korea’s distance of 1.4 metres strikes me as rather precise, I do wonder how they came up with that value.

 

[Skymonster]

Was stood behind a woman in the queue at the supermarket yesterday evening who decided that 2m was too close and wanted to stand 4m behind the next person and wanted me to be 4m behind her. This sort of craziness, with people making up their own rules because they have been scared by the government and the media, is doing the nation's need to get back to some semblance of normality no good at all. When we move to 1m - and I am sure we will - there will be plenty who decide they still want 2m and will try to be dictatorial towards those who don't comply with their ideals.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This is the interesting part. I’m currently taking a close look at numbers each day and, as you say, if there’s no sharp increase then that’s the final nail in the coffin for 2m/social distancing.

The numbers appear to have levelled off, at least, and are no longer declining.

 

[SM Chobham Int]

Here in Denmark we have had the 1m rule for 6 weeks now and it generally works well..... my daughter is a school teacher and whilst apprehensive at first has found that right from the start the young kids know what they should do...... I travel on the trains off peak 4 times a week but only allowed if you make a compulsory free of charge seat reservation my Finnish friends now say that after the 2 meter rule has been withdrawn they can go back to being 5 meters apart !!

 

[Enthusiast]

...there will be plenty who decide they still want 2m

Then they will have to move, won't they

 

[Mag_seven]

Gentle reminder - we are discussing 1m vs 2m social distancing. If anyone wants to discuss anything else then please can they start a new thread. Thanks

 

[Scrotnig]

To me the solution is simple..."keep at least 1 metre apart".

Meaning if you can do more, do more.

To be honest, being somewhat anti-social and somewhat germ-phobic even before all this, there aren't many people I'd want within 1 metre, regardless of any virus. it's invading my personal space at that point and I am uncomfortable.

 

[Skymonster]

Then they will have to move, won't they

Yes, indeed they will

 

[Jamesrob637]

To me the solution is simple..."keep at least 1 metre apart".

Meaning if you can do more, do more.

To be honest, being somewhat anti-social and somewhat germ-phobic even before all this, there aren't many people I'd want within 1 metre, regardless of any virus. it's invading my personal space at that point and I am uncomfortable.

You and Bletchleyite have exactly the same view!

 

[Bletchleyite]

You and Bletchleyite have exactly the same view!

Possibly for slightly different reasons. I'm quite tall and so I hate people being that close because I have to crane my neck down at them.

 

[Pete_uk]

Most people are not keeping 2 meters apart when walking in local park (with paths) or in the street. As has been said so often as humanity wakes up it's going to get harder and harder.

 

[Scrotnig]

Possibly for slightly different reasons. I'm quite tall and so I hate people being that close because I have to crane my neck down at them.

Indeed, my reasons are that I'm just anti-social (or more accurately, mildly socially-phobic) and definitely I'm germ-phobic. I had plenty of hand sanitiser long before all this palaver kicked off.

 

[Pete_uk]

I liked the front page of one of the newspapers asking why people can go to raves, protests and the shops mostly ignoring the 2m rule but cant go back to work

 

[Enthusiast]

I liked the front page of one of the newspapers asking why people can go to raves, protests and the shops mostly ignoring the 2m rule but cant go back to work

Or school !!!

 

[yorkie]

Except you can't officially go to raves; protests are discouraged but you can't really stop certain protests (as discussed in other threads); the 2m guideline is not actually a rule; most people can go to work, and some students can go to school

But I accept the point that the 2m guidance is increasingly being shown to be ridiculous.