It would be interesting to know whether the faster trains or the slower stopping service would load better. There is a sneaking thought locally that the stoppers do better as they are more useful for many more journeys and increasing them rather than the fasts would be better for long term usage as a lot of pent up demand at local stations which are served by less than one train per hour
While there have been important flows into Reading and Guildford from the Blackwater Valley on the stopping services in the peaks, at almost all times of the daye, there is a clear preference for the faster trains on the route. I commuted from Reading to Reigate for twelve years, admittedly stopping in 2012. It was clear that east of Guildford, the Gatwick trains loaded substantially better than the ones which started at Redhill.
The numbers of people at Chilworth, Gomshall and Betchworth are not surpressed by the timetable. In the 3tph timetable, everything stopped at Guildford, Dorking Deepdene, Reigate and Redhill. Is the 'sneaking thought locally' around the idea that more people would use a service with more evenly spaced timing at the main stations?
Living in Reigate, if I want to travel to Reading or further west, I would prefer to do so on a train that takes 60 minutes rather than one which takes 80.
There are 4 Thameslink trains per hour between Redhill and Gatwick so no great need for extension to Gatwick by GWR trains - probably adds 10-15 minutes max to journey time. And currently usage is probably very low.
I don't think that recognises the kind of passengers who use this route off-peak. It isn't just Gatwick - my impression is that there is a fairly sizeable flow of long-distance leisure passengers from GWR destinations to places beyond Gatwick. Changing at Redhill isn't great (and is terrible when there are a lot of passengers with suitcases who need to use two lifts).
Long term the whole link needs to be questioned when you can use Crossrail from Reading to Farringdon and then Thameslink to Gatwick will only take about 20 minutes longer - faster overall if you change at Paddington (which is where your fast service that you change from at Reading will continue to).
Really? That is still 20 minutes longer and the fares via London are much more expensive.
When I say questioned I mean changing the purpose from a Fast Reading to Gatwick link to a more regional connectivity basis to relieve the M25, which could mean a very different pattern of service from the 3tph plan.
The (off-peak) journey time from Reading to Reigate is pretty much 60 minutes by car and 60 minutes by train. While the M25 has issues on the Surrey stretch clockwise in the morning and the M3 is busy towards its junction with the M25, I don't see what can really be done to make the route more competitive other than on the line of route. Putting more stops in won't help.
Even if we took the example of Dorking to Reigate which is a materially quicker journey on the train than on the A25, people appear not to be attracted to using the train over this kind of distance.