If there were a general election in a month, whom would you vote for to most effectively get us out of this mess?

[Chester1]

I wish there were better choices! Maybe the Lib Dem leadership election will give a better third option in England.

I think the question is a bit pointless. The next general election is legally set for 12th December 2024. It will likely be brought forward to avoid another winter election but probably only to September or October 2024 which more than 4 years of the current government, regardless of public opinion. I wouldn't rule out a change of Prime Minister before late 2024 but not of governing party.

The membership of this site that declares its political views is not representative of general population and has a liberal left flavour. If you don't believe me then have a look at the who will you vote for poll from December!

 

[DB]

The membership of this site that declares its political views is not representative of general population and has a liberal left flavour. If you don't believe me then have a look at the who will you vote for poll from December!

A lot has changed since December - in particular, the current leader of the Labour party is more acceptable to more people, and Boris Johnson's handling of the current situation has not impressed many.

 

[brad465]

I think the question is a bit pointless. The next general election is legally set for 12th December 2024. It will likely be brought forward to avoid another winter election but probably only to September or October 2024 which more than 4 years of the current government, regardless of public opinion. I wouldn't rule out a change of Prime Minister before late 2024 but not of governing party.

Currently the Fixed-term Parliaments Act says its May 2024. Of course the expectation is this will be repealed, where if the Private Member's bill currently going through Parliament is what replaces it, the plan is to return to the previous legislation, but this appears to still be no later than May 2024.

 

[Chester1]

Currently the Fixed-term Parliaments Act says its May 2024. Of course the expectation is this will be repealed, where if the Private Member's bill currently going through Parliament is what replaces it, the plan is to return to the previous legislation, but this appears to still be no later than May 2024.

If (or more likely when) fixed term parliaments act is repealed then it will return to being PM's choice upto a maximum of 5 years since the last one. May 2024 might suit the government but if they are not confident of victory then they are more likely to pick a later date. Before the fixed term parliaments act governing parties that thought they were at real risk of losing tended to leave it as late as possible e.g. 1992, 1997 and 2010. 4 year terms were chosen when the outcome wad nearly certain e.g. 1983, 1987, 2001 and 2005.

Regardless of the debate around the fixed term parliaments act and the governments plan to repeal it, its 2024. Whether they are popular or not they are 7-8 months into a parliamentary term and have a majority of 80.

 

[jfollows]

Andrew Rawnsley makes a good point in today's Observer (https://www.theguardian.com/comment...g-to-find-a-way-to-make-keir-starmer-look-bad) that "It is a remarkable shift in the climate that nearly every Labour MP thinks Mr Starmer will take them into the next election, while a growing number of Tory MPs believe they will have a different leader by then."

I think that's right, and it's changed since Keir Starmer took over from Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservatives have benefitted enormously from Jeremy Corby since 2015 and have been missing him a lot. Labour's potential iceberg now seems to be a financial one, in which it continues to have to pay a lot of money in settlement to people wronged by the previous administration, or potentially to contest in court and end up having to pay out a vast amount of money if they lose.

 

[4141]

A lot has changed since December - in particular, the current leader of the Labour party is more acceptable to more people, and Boris Johnson's handling of the current situation has not impressed many.

And yet, according to the latest poll of polls, Conservatives have only dropped 1% since the election, and Labour still remain 8% adrift, the "new leader" effect seeming to have flattened out...

 

[DB]

And yet, according to the latest poll of polls, Conservatives have only dropped 1% since the election, and Labour still remain 8% adrift, the "new leader" effect seeming to have flattened out...

Since when have polls been reliable! These sort of polls get it wrong fairly regularly.

That said, Labour do need to actually behave more like an opposition party, which they aren't at the moment.

 

[edwin_m]

And yet, according to the latest poll of polls, Conservatives have only dropped 1% since the election, and Labour still remain 8% adrift, the "new leader" effect seeming to have flattened out...

That suggests Labour voters who didn't really support anybody at the last election are returning to the fold. More evidence that Labour lost the election rather than the Tories winning it, despite the latter using it as a mandate for an extreme line on Brexit.

I would guess a lot of the public, while welcoming Starmer as leader, want to see more evidence that the Corbyn faction isn't still there and pulling the strings in the background. Hence the high profile firing of Rebecca Long Bailey. But I don't think that issue will truly resolve until there are some concrete statements on Labour policy, which probably won't be until the next election is much closer. It would be a bad idea to set out policies now that might turn out not to be viable in the post-virus economic climate whatever that turns out to be, and then be accused of U-turning. But more importantly some difficult choices will have to be made at that point between keeping Corbyn-era policies that much of the membership and the more left-wing voters support, and adopting alternatives that may appeal more to the centre.

There's probably also an element of supporting the government in a crisis. That's another fine line Starmer has to tread between highlighting the administration's many mistakes and incompetencies, and appearing to be making difficult times more difficult for everyone.

 

[Cowley]

That suggests Labour voters who didn't really support anybody at the last election are returning to the fold. More evidence that Labour lost the election rather than the Tories winning it, despite the latter using it as a mandate for an extreme line on Brexit.

I would guess a lot of the public, while welcoming Starmer as leader, want to see more evidence that the Corbyn faction isn't still there and pulling the strings in the background. Hence the high profile firing of Rebecca Long Bailey. But I don't think that issue will truly resolve until there are some concrete statements on Labour policy, which probably won't be until the next election is much closer. It would be a bad idea to set out policies now that might turn out not to be viable in the post-virus economic climate whatever that turns out to be, and then be accused of U-turning. But more importantly some difficult choices will have to be made at that point between keeping Corbyn-era policies that much of the membership and the more left-wing voters support, and adopting alternatives that may appeal more to the centre.

There's probably also an element of supporting the government in a crisis. That's another fine line Starmer has to tread between highlighting the administration's many mistakes and incompetencies, and appearing to be making difficult times more difficult for everyone.

That’s very well summed up @edwin_m and pretty much what I think is Labour and Starmer’s plan at the moment too.
He’s got enough of a rebuilding job to do in his party at the moment as well.

 

[Busaholic]

That’s very well summed up @edwin_m and pretty much what I think is Labour and Starmer’s plan at the moment too.
He’s got enough of a rebuilding job to do in his party at the moment as well.

Agreed, a good summing up, but I think Starmer is somewhat constrained by his own personality. In retrospect, if he ever thought he'd be seeking a major role in party politics, perhaps he'd never have accepted that knighthood either. It doesn't sit well with the leader of an opposition Labour Party, though it's not ridiculous unlike 'Sir' Ed Davey. There may not be a lot of political fire in Starmer's belly, but he could make more of an effort to fake some. I won't bring Tony Blair into it for various reasons, but I think John Smith could have made mincemeat of Johnson and really got under his skin. The oft-derided Michael Foot (compared erroneously to Corbyn by too many) with his rhetoric would have made so many telling points too, I believe. Lisa Nandy was my choice for leader, and I was disappointed (but not surprised) when she came third, but Starmer should show more convincingly what he is for, not just against (i.e. the antisemitic element.)

 

[Cowley]

Agreed, a good summing up, but I think Starmer is somewhat constrained by his own personality. In retrospect, if he ever thought he'd be seeking a major role in party politics, perhaps he'd never have accepted that knighthood either. It doesn't sit well with the leader of an opposition Labour Party, though it's not ridiculous unlike 'Sir' Ed Davey. There may not be a lot of political fire in Starmer's belly, but he could make more of an effort to fake some. I won't bring Tony Blair into it for various reasons, but I think John Smith could have made mincemeat of Johnson and really got under his skin. The oft-derided Michael Foot (compared erroneously to Corbyn by too many) with his rhetoric would have made so many telling points too, I believe. Lisa Nandy was my choice for leader, and I was disappointed (but not surprised) when she came third, but Starmer should show more convincingly what he is for, not just against (i.e. the antisemitic element.)

Good points. There’s going to be a lot of work needed to get Labour to where they need to be this next couple of years, but the Conservatives have almost certainly been holed under the water now regardless of what Labour do.
It’s all going to be quite interesting.

 

[Tetchytyke]

And yet, according to the latest poll of polls, Conservatives have only dropped 1% since the election, and Labour still remain 8% adrift, the "new leader" effect seeming to have flattened out...

The big polling companies are all owned by Conservatives. The owners of YouGov are a very interesting bunch. The founders even more so.

So between elections they downplay Labour to demoralise, and coming up to elections they build up Labour to scare the Tory masses into voting.

Wait and see!

 

[Butts]

Good points. There’s going to be a lot of work needed to get Labour to where they need to be this next couple of years, but the Conservatives have almost certainly been holed under the water now regardless of what Labour do.
It’s all going to be quite interesting.

You'd better hope they are not in possession of a puncture repair kit !!

Seriously by the next election they will have been in power for about 14 years - probably more a case of "buggins turn" will return a Labour Government.

Biggest problem you have got is the lack of "cannon fodder nodding Donkeys" numbering 40 odd MP's from up here.

 

[Chester1]

A lot has changed since December - in particular, the current leader of the Labour party is more acceptable to more people, and Boris Johnson's handling of the current situation has not impressed many.

The poll was in a thread in the general discussion forum:

Poll: Potential General Election: who are you voting for?

As per the thread title - and discuss your reasoning below!

www.railforums.co.uk

439 members voted and the result was nothing close to the real result with Lib Dens winning, Labour second and Tories third on 19.1% (42.4% in general election). I don't doubt that some people have moved away from Tories since December and that Starmer has improved Labours chances, I was making the point that active members of this site were unlikely to support the Conservatives anyway.

 

[mmh]

Boris hand-picked his cabinet so if they're useless wet imbeciles then that falls on Boris anyway. He chose devout Brexitism over competence, which is why a 5-watt intellect like Priti Patel is Home Secretary.

Apart from the ministers who were remainers, like Grant Shapps and, err, Matt Hancock. They would admire your revisionism.

 

[brad465]

You'd better hope they are not in possession of a puncture repair kit !!

Seriously by the next election they will have been in power for about 14 years - probably more a case of "buggins turn" will return a Labour Government.

Biggest problem you have got is the lack of "cannon fodder nodding Donkeys" numbering 40 odd MP's from up here.

The Tories held power for 18 years from 79-97, and if they won in 2024 and Labour were out till 2029 that would be 19 years this time, so we're not in uncharted territory yet (admittingly was not around until the Major years so don't have first hand experience of it).

There is a group called Make Votes matter that is trying to lobby Starmer to back PR, a voting system I agree we definitely need, which apparently 76% of Labour members would like. I like to think if the party adopts that stance it would put some serious weight behind the system and help voters to realise what one the of the real "democracy deniers" has been in recent decades. The level of support in their membership suggests Labour have nothing to lose putting it forward, it's just a question of how much they can gain. Covid has certainly put to bed the argument that FPTP provides stable Government (because it clearly doesn't).

 

[Yew]

You'd better hope they are not in possession of a puncture repair kit !!

I don't think Johnson could successfully repair a bike tyre if he tried!

 

[Butts]

I don't think Johnson could successfully repair a bike tyre if he tried!

Not even a "Boris Bike"

Feel his talents lie in other areas - ie women !!

 

[Yew]

Feel his talents lie in other areas - ie women !!

Still no rubber-related talent in that department either!

 

[edwin_m]

Apart from the ministers who were remainers, like Grant Shapps and, err, Matt Hancock. They would admire your revisionism.

Which one of Shapps's alter egos was that?

Certain ministers have swallowed their pride and sworn loyalty to Brexit. It's an interesting question whether this is because they now believe, they feel the government needs their talents or it's simply about personal advancement.

 

[Spamcan81]

Conservative voter all my life until the last election when I voted Lib Dem. If an election was held tomorrow though, I'd vote Labour in the hope of ridding the country of the current hopeless shower and Cummings.

 

[Busaholic]

Which one of Shapps's alter egos was that?

Certain ministers have swallowed their pride and sworn loyalty to Brexit. It's an interesting question whether this is because they now believe, they feel the government needs their talents or it's simply about personal advancement.

Johnson/Cummings (not necessarily in that order) wanted brown nosers in the Cabinet, regardless of their side of the Brexit argument (most would argue vociferously against their previous statements anyway in order to stay in office cf Nicky Morgan) so it's almost irrelevant what they've opined in the past. They had to include Sajid Javid initially, against the grain, but were determined to oust him if or when he rebelled. Matt Hancock was so obviously out of his depth as soon as Coronavirus became a reality and Johnson should have swallowed his pride and brought Jeremy Hunt back with a specific brief to get abreast, if not on top, of the subject. Hunt knew where the bodies were buried, at least, after his long spell as Health Secretary and couldn't have done a worse job than the ridiculous Hancock, and that's not being said with retrospect.

 

[edwin_m]

Johnson/Cummings (not necessarily in that order) wanted brown nosers in the Cabinet, regardless of their side of the Brexit argument (most would argue vociferously against their previous statements anyway in order to stay in office cf Nicky Morgan) so it's almost irrelevant what they've opined in the past. They had to include Sajid Javid initially, against the grain, but were determined to oust him if or when he rebelled. Matt Hancock was so obviously out of his depth as soon as Coronavirus became a reality and Johnson should have swallowed his pride and brought Jeremy Hunt back with a specific brief to get abreast, if not on top, of the subject. Hunt knew where the bodies were buried, at least, after his long spell as Health Secretary and couldn't have done a worse job than the ridiculous Hancock, and that's not being said with retrospect.

I'd guess Hancock is being kept on to take the role of scapegoat when the time comes.

But they may have over-reached themselves in promoting Rishi Sunak to replace Javid. He's probably the only credible Johnson successor in the Cabinet, remembering that the Tories will not hesitate to defenestrate their leader (or make them jump before being pushed) if he/she becomes in their view a liability. This has happened at least six times since 1990. However by agreeing not to have his own advisers he's probably also sold his soul to Cummings, who now has a replacement lined up for when Boris outlives his usefulness.

 

[37424]

If there were an election tomorrow then the answer is I don't know at this juncture. Starmer is no doubt an improvement but I suspect it will still be more to the left than I would ideally like and there is probably still too many non grown up lefties in the party for my liking.

I voted for Johnson as the least worst option I think Johnson apart from his hard Brexit view is a fairly middle of the road Conservative but unfortunately with his Brexit views he's turned his party more towards right wing UKIP and I think if he is replaced then we are certainly going to get someone who moves more to the right. There is also of course the issue of a European Trade deal getting ever closer and think its fair to say that if we leave with no deal there is certainly no way I could ever vote of Johnson or the Tories ever again.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Grant Shapps

Slippery Grant Schapps is not a remainer, and Matt Hancock is now all in favour of No Deal Brexit.

You were saying?

He's probably the only credible Johnson successor in the Cabinet

Sunak is shaking every last leaf off the Magic Money Tree so looks competent. But don't be fooled.

 

[birchesgreen]

Sunak is shaking every last leaf off the Magic Money Tree so looks competent. But don't be fooled.

Yes its easy to gain profile and popularity when you are doling out the dosh, however pretty soon the money flow is going to have to go the other way, Sunak won't be so popular then when taxes are going up!

 

[PHILIPE]

If I had a choice I would like Boris and Mutt Hancock replaced by Ian Duncan Smith and Liam Fox. Although the former might not be everybody's cup of tea they are couple of level headed experienced politicians

 

[Butts]

If I had a choice I would like Boris and Mutt Hancock replaced by Ian Duncan Smith and Liam Fox. Although the former might not be everybody's cup of tea they are couple of level headed experienced politicians

Is it April 1st ?

 

[greyman42]

If I had a choice I would like Boris and Mutt Hancock replaced by Ian Duncan Smith and Liam Fox. Although the former might not be everybody's cup of tea they are couple of level headed experienced politicians

I would go with that.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

A british equivalent of Giuseppe Conte, if possible. He has been amazing at acting against Coronavirus in Italy, we need a British equivalent of him!