Wales to enter "circuit break" lockdown from Friday 23 October to Monday 9 November

[duncanp]

And now if reports in the papers are to be believed, Nicola Sturgeon has extended the Scottish "circuit breaker" by one week, so that MSPs do not have to return early from their recess in order to rubber stamp have a vote on the five tier system of restrictions that is to replace the "circuit breaker".

The reports also state the much of the Central Belt of Scotland will be in Tier 4, where the restrictions are..... similar to what is currently in force. So this is effectively continuing the so called "circuit breaker" for an indefinite period, although no doubt Saint Nicola thinks that if she doesn't call it a "circuit breaker" people won't notice.

So when Mark Drakeford says that the Welsh "fire break" is definitely going to end on November 9th, I would take that with a very large pinch of salt, especially if whatever comes after November 9th in Wales is more or less identical to what was in place before November 9th.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Those of us who like statistics will be pleased to learn that Public Health Wales have restarted* publishing them down to MSOA level. Maybe it's their contribution to World Statistics Day yesterday!
* I say 'restarted' as I'm pretty sure they did back in March/April but then stopped.

Tableau Public

public.tableau.com

PHW has been publishing that data for many weeks, months maybe.
I look at it every day for the local cases and rates (at county level) - the 7-day rolling stats are the key measure for assessing the R value.
However, you still can't get data at town/district or postcode level.
In my area I would like to know where cases are concentrated (urban/rural split etc).
For instance Wrexham borough has the highest rate in NE Wales, but I doubt it stretches all the way up the remote Ceiriog valley!

The PHE map (also now includes Wales) is more granular for England (at district level), and it now also offers the 7-day rate.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

In March PHW withdrew the local data on the grounds of "patient confidentiality" - bunkum, they just didn't want you to know the worst.
It came back when the rates dropped in the summer sometime.

 

[krus_aragon]

In terms of pre-existing immunity there's been quite a bit of discussion, and links to articles on various threads. I'll try to dig some out when I have more time.

Thanks for the details, very useful reading.

Are you saying that around 1% of Merthyr's population have died of the virus? I'm guessing you mean 1% of those that have been infected?

Mea Culpa! I'll go back and correct that part of my post.

Thank you both for your constructive feedback.

 

[Dai Corner]

PHW has been publishing that data for many weeks, months maybe.
I look at it every day for the local cases and rates (at county level) - the 7-day rolling stats are the key measure for assessing the R value.
However, you still can't get data at town/district or postcode level.
In my area I would like to know where cases are concentrated (urban/rural split etc).
For instance Wrexham borough has the highest rate in NE Wales, but I doubt it stretches all the way up the remote Ceiriog valley!

The PHE map (also now includes Wales) is more granular for England (at district level), and it now also offers the 7-day rate.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk

In March PHW withdrew the local data on the grounds of "patient confidentiality" - bunkum, they just didn't want you to know the worst.
It came back when the rates dropped in the summer sometime.

Have you looked today? It goes down to 'Middle Layer Super Output Area' level (the dame ad England) and I can see that Chirk and Ceiriog Valley has had 51 cases since the records began.

 

[greyman42]

I suspect popularity varies depending on one’s work situation. I can’t imagine this latest lockdown being popular with people who’s job or business is at risk. By contrast if one is a pensioner or work-from-homer then bring it on! This has all become *very* polarising, and to be frank it stinks.

That's assuming that said pensioner enjoys all the restrictions and inconvenience that a lockdown brings. I somehow doubt that. There seems to be an assumption that pensioners just sit in a chair watching telly and sleeping all day.

Trouble is it’s very easy for this to be blamed on England, so we’re unlikely to see any politicians being held to account on it.

This lockdown has nothing to do with England and i struggle to see how anyone apart from the most fervent nationalists could see otherwise.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Have you looked today? It goes down to 'Middle Layer Super Output Area' level (the dame ad England) and I can see that Chirk and Ceiriog Valley has had 51 cases since the records began.View attachment 84885

Thanks for that, very useful, didn't know it now had that detail (though the map is a bit cranky).
Depressingly, my rural area has a higher rate than I thought, and not much less than the high urban areas.

 

[Chester1]

That's assuming that said pensioner enjoys all the restrictions and inconvenience that a lockdown brings. I somehow doubt that. There seems to be an assumption that pensioners just sit in a chair watching telly and sleeping all day.

My grandmother is fortunate to be healthy despite being in her late 80s. She has almost ignored the pandemic and carried on her life. Absolutely the right decision for her because she is unlikely to have many healthy years left and shouldn't waste a year or two hiding away. If she catches covid she probably be fine. If she isn't then she has spent her remaining time living not waiting to die. Her friends and family know and can judge their own risk accordingly.

 

[John Luxton]

I was intrigued by this "tweet" and it is absolute tin foil rubbish - the health authority have confirmed

Health board debunks nonsense coronavirus conspiracy claims about Gwent hospital

A TWEET spreading false coronavirus conspiracy theories about a Gwent hospital has been debunked by a health board.

www.southwalesargus.co.uk

A TWEET spreading false coronavirus conspiracy theories about a Gwent hospital has been debunked by a health board. Aneurin Bevan University Health Board derided the comments, debunking the claims made in the 25 tweet thread about Nevill Hall Hospital, in Abergavenny. The thread - which has been retweeted more than 2,000 times - cites "a source", claiming that 200 of the hospital's 250 beds were currently empty. The health board has now made it clear that is was not true. There are in fact 260 beds in Nevill Hall Hospital, and all are fully utilised. The user, from "rural east Kent" with detailed information about healthcare in Gwent, also claimed that doctors and surgeons had so little to do that they were playing golf. Again, the health board said this information was incorrect and that all of the hospitals in the area were currently "incredibly busy"

I admit I am a lockdown sceptic and follow a lot of sceptics on Twitter and Facebook - problem is there are people posting conspiracy theory stuff / stretching points to justify their arguments but unfortunately I sometimes get the feeling their lies are only part of the argument and because the press have ceased to challenge much of the local and national government rhetoric it is difficult what to believe.

We hear stories of Doctors being suspended because of their views - Dr Iqbal Adil a 30+ year veteran being something of a cause celebre amongst the sceptics.

Do we really know if the official refuting of the story is really correct or not or propaganda.

The question is who do we trust?

Are both sides are sometime playing the lying game?

Only Today the Daily Telegraph ran an article stating the pandemic was over and pointing out that whilst hospitals were busy they are not really much busier than they would be for this time of year yet we get local lockdowns in England and a much tighter one in Wales.

WHO IS TELLING THE TRUTH?!

John

That's assuming that said pensioner enjoys all the restrictions and inconvenience that a lockdown brings. I somehow doubt that. There seems to be an assumption that pensioners just sit in a chair watching telly and sleeping all day.

There must be a lot of frustrated pensioners out there.

Personally I am in a peculiar transition period.

I was able to take early retirement from work in December and receive my work pension, plus a private pension which tops that up and will bridge the gap to my state pension in 5 years time. Part of my motivation for taking early retirement was driven by the need to provide some care for my mother. Unfortunately she passed away suddenly in January, ironically with what subsequently appeared to be Covid like symptoms - but she was certified as succumbing to pneumonia.

With my caring responsibilities removed I planned a few trips and holidays - only to end up having to defer them until next spring / early summer due to the lockdown.

One of my intentions this autumn had been to find a part time job to keep me busy until I was 66.

However, given the situation of people being turned out of work because of redundancy caused by Covid it does not appear the right thing to do as I don't really need the ££ - but rather something to do which might just provide just more cash for more pleasurable activities!

Basically I have been wanting to do things since spring and all there has been is lockdown, gradual loosening and now suddenly tightening again, particularly in Wales of all places where I spend 75% of my leisure time, of course that came after "Dripford" said he didn't want visitors from Tier 3 Merseyside visiting.

No wonder this retiree is a lockdown sceptic and up there with the younger generation fighting all these restrictions!


John

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Do we really know if the official refuting of the story is really correct or not or propaganda.

The question is who do we trust?

Are both sides are sometime playing the lying game?

Only Today the Daily Telegraph ran an article stating the pandemic was over and pointing out that whilst hospitals were busy they are not really much busier than they would be for this time of year yet we get local lockdowns in England and a much tighter one in Wales.

WHO IS TELLING THE TRUTH?!

It's tripe - utter tripe. The local MS substantiated that the story was rubbish.

Whilst I hold a healthy scepticism for government and spin (dodgy dossiers et al), you can't simply say that there's a bit of blame on both sides and that justifies people tweeting total bull and you repeating it.

It is clear that in certain areas, ICU beds are filling up. In other areas, less pronounced.

 

[bramling]

That's assuming that said pensioner enjoys all the restrictions and inconvenience that a lockdown brings. I somehow doubt that. There seems to be an assumption that pensioners just sit in a chair watching telly and sleeping all day.

I don’t doubt that it’s highly undesirable for pensioners. However they do have the option to do like you say, sit in a chair watching telly and sleeping all day, without it ruining their livelihood. Particularly the current generation of pensioners, many of whom are fortunate enough to have paid-off houses and decent pensions.

All I’m saying is it’s unreasonable to expect life to stop, in particular economic activity which is supplying livelihood to working-age people (and, ultimately, funding those comfy pensions). It was quite reasonable to support lockdown measures back in March when we were dealing with a completely unknown virus, but completely unreasonable to expect such measures to continue until there’s a vaccine.

This lockdown has nothing to do with England and i struggle to see how anyone apart from the most fervent nationalists could see otherwise.

Yet there’s been hints of exactly this message emanating from both Wales and Scotland at times, either in terms of English people coming to those areas, or suggesting England opened up too quickly.

 

[John Luxton]

It's tripe - utter tripe. The local MS substantiated that the story was rubbish.

Whilst I hold a healthy scepticism for government and spin (dodgy dossiers et al), you can't simply say that there's a bit of blame on both sides and that justifies people tweeting total bull and you repeating it.

It is clear that in certain areas, ICU beds are filling up. In other areas, less pronounced.

In this case it may well be utter tripe. I only repeated what I saw and it was certainly circulated widely.

In this strange world we inhabit one tends to use information which supports your point of view and yes there is blame on both sides.

The governments in Westminster and Wales are manipulating figures. Suddenly there is more of a tendency to report percentage increases rather than real figures.

Thus a 100 increase in infections could be just one becoming two.

I am not a interested in sport but I have chosen my side of the argument and will tend to believe information circulating which supports my point of view, as I think most tend to do.

John

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

In this case it may well be utter tripe. I only repeated what I saw and it was certainly circulated widely.

In this strange world we inhabit one tends to use information which supports your point of view and yes there is blame on both sides.

The governments in Westminster and Wales are manipulating figures. Suddenly there is more of a tendency to report percentage increases rather than real figures.

Thus a 100 increase in infections could be just one becoming two.

I am not a interested in sport but I have chosen my side of the argument and will tend to believe information circulating which supports my point of view, as I think most tend to do.

John

I'm sorry John, but merely repeating something that is clearly wrong is no defence. Notwithstanding the site rules, where we are expected to make sure information is correct to the best of our knowledge, it is incumbent on all of us to ensure that myths and other foil hatted nonsense is not further distributed.

The selective use of information and statistics to advance an argument is as old as the hills. We know it as "spin" now, but it's always happened. Governments making spending announcements where funds are announced and reannounced, citing millions of pounds when in real terms, it's considerably less. We know that sort of practice happens. Indeed, we see on these forums where people (on either side of a discussion) pick out the figures that prove or disprove a particular view. As an example, I've previously taken people to task on using Greater Manchester bus patronage figures out of context to support franchising, ignoring the correlation and causation of much of the decline to extensions to the Metrolink network.

In respect of the Covid threads, there are differing views with the extremes being those who want a return to Mar/Apr style lockdowns through to those who think "let it rip", with various other views between the two extremes, and they will use and interpret information to support their views. That's how debates and discussions work.

However, that tweet isn't merely misrepresentation or an abberation. It's an outright fabrication; it immediately caught my eye as being distinctly unlikely and it took very little time to investigate it and debunk it.

You may have chosen your side of the argument. I appreciate that. FWIW, I'm neither a locktivist nor a ripper. In common with most people (I think), we recognise the inherent conflict (as Portillo rightly explained on Newsnight) between trying to minimise the death rate against the damage to the economy, to wellbeing both physically and mentally, and its disproportionate impact on certain demographics (esp the young). It is a terrible dilemma for any government across the world and whilst some mistakes could be understood (e.g. UK had prepared for a more likely flu based pandemic) with hindsight, I had no confidence in Boris and his government anyway.

However, irrespective of any earnestly held position, peddling and repeating fabrications is not helpful. Not only that, it may undermine other well-founded arguments you may have.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I only repeated what I saw and it was certainly circulated widely.

Such behaviour is exactly why ludicrous conspiracy theories (QAnon, 5G being responsible for COVID, etc etc) are able to spread online though
We can't just blindly repeat everything we see and expect it all to work out ok.

 

[yorkie]

Just a gentle reminder that any references to external sources (e.g. tweets, press releases, news articles or anything else) need to be properly referenced and quoted as per our forum rules ( a good example of how to do this is in the opening post of this thread)

There are good reasons for this, including making the forum accessible for all as well as enabling people to check the authenticity of any claims made.

Where possible, a primary source is better than a secondary source.

Also can we try not to stray too far from the topic of this thread please; the topic is to discuss the latest lockdown in Wales.

Thanks

 

[island]

Mark Drakeford is now saying supermarkets will only be “allowed” to sell “essential goods” during the lockdown. Whatever that means.

Wales lockdown: Supermarkets told to sell only essential items

Retailers will be barred from selling items like clothes when Wales goes into a two-week lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

Supermarkets will be unable to sell items like clothes during the 17-day Covid firebreak lockdown in Wales.
First Minister Mark Drakeford said it will be "made clear" to them they are only able to open parts of their business that sell "essential goods".
During lockdown many retailers will be forced to shut.
But food shops, off-licences and pharmacies can stay open when lockdown begins on Friday at 18:00 BST.
Welsh Conservative Andrew RT Davies tweeted: "The power is going to their heads."

 

[HSTEd]

Mark Drakeford is now saying supermarkets will only be “allowed” to sell “essential goods” during the lockdown. Whatever that means.

Wales lockdown: Supermarkets told to sell only essential items

Retailers will be barred from selling items like clothes when Wales goes into a two-week lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

Only goods approved by the puritan overlords.

Joy is forbidden!

 

[Dai Corner]

Only goods approved by the puritan overlords.

Joy is forbidden!

"Non-essential item in bagging area"

 

[bramling]

Mark Drakeford is now saying supermarkets will only be “allowed” to sell “essential goods” during the lockdown. Whatever that means.

Wales lockdown: Supermarkets told to sell only essential items

Retailers will be barred from selling items like clothes when Wales goes into a two-week lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

OMG here we go...

Having said that, perhaps the intent behind this is to avoid penalising local shops. One of the criticisms last time was that supermarkets were still able to benefit from things like clothes sales, whereas small shops weren’t. But on the other hand if you urgently need an item of clothing...

 

[DB]

"Non-essential item in bagging area"

It really is ridiculous isn't it? Can they really not see how this obsessive controlling behaviour makes them look?

 

[DannyMich2018]

Only goods approved by the puritan overlords.

Joy is forbidden!

I agree with many points and we really need a "Firebreak" here for a few weeks in England, however I question the logic particularly closing non-essential shops, this will hurt many particularly coming up to Christmas which is only just over (9!) week's away-I can see many people "popping" over the border to places such as Shrewsbury and Chester and Gloucester to go shopping, have a haircut, go for a meal, bingo, travel on a heritage railway etc....

 

[DB]

I agree with many points and we really need a "Firebreak" here for a few weeks in England

No, we do not need a 'firebreak' (or any other similarly ridiculous term) in England. This idea of 'fighting the virus' has become obsessional and has no clear aims at all. The NHS is no closer to capacity than it normally is at this time of year, and there is no other viable reason to take action.

 

[yorkie]

Is non essential food allowed?

Do they have a list of non-essential items,nor does each shop make up its own list?

I am struggling to see how Drakeford isn't effectively a dictator. He also doesn't come across as particularly intelligent either.

I am struggling to believe this can happen in the UK; worrying times indeed.

edit:

Wales lockdown: Supermarkets told to sell only essential items

Retailers will be barred from selling items like clothes when Wales goes into a two-week lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk

Retailers said they had not been given a definition of what was essential.
The Association of Convenience Stores and the Welsh Retail Consortium have written urgently to the first minister, expressing alarm over the new regulations.
Sara Jones, head of the Welsh Retail Consortium, said: "Compelling retailers to stop selling certain items, without them being told clearly what is and what isn't permitted to be sold, is ill-conceived and short-sighted."

I hope spitting image get a Drakeford character!

 

[island]

I can see many people "popping" over the border to places such as Shrewsbury and Chester and Gloucester to go shopping, have a haircut, go for a meal, bingo, travel on a heritage railway etc....

That would be a violation.

 

[HSTEd]

Bet Amazon will love this.

 

[Scotrail12]

The Drakester better watch out - will people be forgiving of his appalling behaviour when it comes to the next Welsh election? Wee Nippy may be safe up here but even she will definitely be having less votes next year.

 

[Dai Corner]

That would be a violation.

I don't think there's anything to stop someone living in a Welsh County (such as Powys or Monmouthshire) not in local lockdown visiting a part of England in Tier 1 (such as Shropshire or Gloucestershire) for any purpose. Travel for work that cannot be done at home is not restricted at all.

The Drakester better watch out - will people be forgiving of his appalling behaviour when it comes to the next Welsh election? Wee Nippy may be safe up here but even she will definitely be having less votes next year.

Rumour has it that he's going to delay the election due next May until he's ready it can be held safely.

 

[bramling]

The Drakester better watch out - will people be forgiving of his appalling behaviour when it comes to the next Welsh election? Wee Nippy may be safe up here but even she will definitely be having less votes next year.

Is Drakeford even planning to do another election? He already seems a bit old.

 

[Richard Scott]

Mark Drakeford is now saying supermarkets will only be “allowed” to sell “essential goods” during the lockdown. Whatever that means.

I'm so glad I'm escaping to England tomorrow before the 18.00 deadline. Be out of this place for a week. Will spend my money there instead as Drakeford obviously doesn't want me to spend it here.

 

[Bikeman78]

Plenty of people in Cardiff having a last blast before lockdown. City centre busy and roads busy too. Bizarrely there were around 40 teenagers on skateboards out the front of Cardiff Central. Virtually no rail passngers though.

 

[Pete_uk]

What a way to get people's backs up!